Calling all you draft nerds

[sprhawk73]

Does there happen to be any under the radar, short, will never be able to hack it in the NFL QB's coming in this years draft?

Unlike you God like folks who for saw RW's coming, I had never heard of him and didn't think he stood a chance let alone becoming what he is today.

 

[Rat]

Yes, Bailey Zappe. He's going to be a huge steal for someone.

 

[TwistedHusky]

We did an analytics engine to pick QBs as draft picks.

It was tremendously good at figuring out if someone would be a bust vs a success if you put past draft picks in it blind. The model vaulted guys like Joe Montana to the top and people like Akili Smith to the bottom, if you put them all in the same pool and did not disclose they were past players.

A GM of a sports team did use it, but not for football.

What I can say is that the #1 predictor of success for us involved comebacks in the 4th quarter against higher-ranked teams or ranked teams (different points for each, higher-ranked teams were more point value). Of course ranking is subjective, but even so - it was tremendously accurate.

(It was a factor of opportunities vs success rate, but scored so that larger sample sizes looked better. QBs from dominant teams then didn't always rate as high, so you missed out on guys like Tua but the upside is that you missed out on guys like Tua!)

Now, did it work when applied to QBs moving forward and not just blind historical data? I have no idea.

But I expect the comebacks factor is still a great indicator.

If you want to judge a QB's ability to contribute in the NFL, start with that.

 

[sprhawk73]

Yes, Bailey Zappe. He's going to be a huge steal for someone.

:2thumbs: Looks real good, 6'1 is a little short. What is your reasoning for late round pick? Is it more than his school, got to say I never heard of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.

 

[12th Dimension]

I would be shocked if Drew Lock wasn’t the guy. We all look back, the FO only looks forward.

 

[Rat]

Yes, Bailey Zappe. He's going to be a huge steal for someone.

:2thumbs: Looks real good, 6'1 is a little short. What is your reasoning for late round pick? Is it more than his school, got to say I never heard of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.

I was incredibly impressed with his poise and touch when I watched him carve up one of the NCAA's best defenses in Michigan State, keeping the Hilltoppers in the game way longer than they had any right to be. He didn't look like a system QB to me.

 

[Spin Doctor]

I've been going through all of the QB footage that I can find of the potential guys that might be available. One guy that really stood out to me was Carson Strong.

Now, Strong is an immobile QB with a bit of a concern about his knee. I looked up the specific knee issue and it's usually an injury that resolves after surgery. Strong is never going to be mobile, but other things really stood out to me.

As a passer, he's probably the most refined in the draft. He's accurate and he has really good arm talent. He knows how to manipulate the pocket really well, and he has an extremely fast release. He's very tough and he doesn't back down from pressure. He'll stand tall in the pocket and take huge hits and still deliver an accurate ball to his receiver. If you got the chance, check this guy out.

As a passer he reminds me a lot of Phillip Rivers. I think he's going to be a potential steal for whoever gets him. Some teams may be spooked about his knee and lack of mobility -- but dang, this guy is tough and has a lot going for him. He does have some unnecessary movement in his footwork and he has about as much mobility as Brady, but dang -- this guy could be something at the next level.

 

[kf3339]

I've been going through all of the QB footage that I can find of the potential guys that might be available. One guy that really stood out to me was Carson Strong.

Now, Strong is an immobile QB with a bit of a concern about his knee. I looked up the specific knee issue and it's usually an injury that resolves after surgery. Strong is never going to be mobile, but other things really stood out to me.

As a passer, he's probably the most refined in the draft. He's accurate and he has really good arm talent. He knows how to manipulate the pocket really well, and he has an extremely fast release. He's very tough and he doesn't back down from pressure. He'll stand tall in the pocket and take huge hits and still deliver an accurate ball to his receiver. If you got the chance, check this guy out.

As a passer he reminds me a lot of Phillip Rivers. I think he's going to be a potential steal for whoever gets him. Some teams may be spooked about his knee and lack of mobility -- but dang, this guy is tough and has a lot going for him. He does have some unnecessary movement in his footwork and he has about as much mobility as Brady, but dang -- this guy could be something at the next level.

I saw several of his games this last few years going against my Fresno State team. He truly does have a really strong arm and accurate passer. Agree he isn't a running threat at all, but still mobile within the pocket. You also nailed it that he has a really quick release and really tough in the pocket.

After having a short QB who couldn't see over the middle or take whats given to him by the defense I see that value in this type of QB. For one of our 2nd round picks I think it would be a fair pick. A Rivers or Brady comparison is a realistic guess.