What’s going on with Earl Thomas and Russell Wilson?

[Sgt. Largent]

"Rebuilding" in the NFL isn't like other sports where it takes many years. There's no farm talent to restock, the bulk of outstanding contacts are non-guaranteed, and hitting on one single draft can provide enough cheap talent playing below their market value to have a very competitive team. Just look at how teams rise and fall like yo-yos and you'll notice it's rare for a team to stay good (or bad) for long.

The reason to trade a player like Earl is because you think it will make you better in the near future. This is still possible without getting a player of the same talent in return if you get player(s) with equal or better value (rookies, prove it vets, etc.). It's plausible that we would have a better overall team in 2019 taking the $14m that Earl wants and spending it on improving several other areas. That's the argument for trading Earl, not some sort of baseball equivalent long-term rebuild where you ditch all the vets in exchange for adding to your farm system.

It's all about windows.

Our SB window with the majority of players Pete and John drafted in their first couple years is closed.

So now it' onto the next window, which if Pete and John draft well again, and be smart about the cap should be in another 2-3 years before we're ready to seriously compete.

That's why there's no monster extension for Earl, because by the time this team's ready to compete again for a SB, he's going to be on the downhill slide.........if he even makes it that far with his injury history and "I'M RETIRING!!" volatile personality.

So why pay him Eric Berry money over the next 5-6 years when we desperately need the picks and cap space? For a very good player, but a very expensive player that's now an annual injury risk.

 

[2_0_6]

As the days go on and the more rumors that are floated out on Twitter, it sounds like Tampa might be the team most interested. Their 1st round pick is untouchable, but their 2nd and 3rd rounders are in great spots. They need safety help, and have been tied to taking Derwin James at #7 who just so happens to have the same agent as Earl. Having an ET, James combo back there would be damn good.

I would be happy with this deal:

Tampa Gets:
Earl Thomas

Hawks get:
Tampas '18 second rounder (38), '18 third rounder (69th overall) and a '19 second rounder.

If this did go down, I would then slide money to Eric Reid and role a Reid McDouglad safety combo out next year.
:irishdrinkers:

Tampa don't have a third this year unfortunately, that's why my proposed deal included the 2019 2nd which is very handy as we don't have a 2019 second currently.

Where are you seeing that they don't have a third? Every mock draft site I have looked at states they do.

 

[Sac]

Russell Wilson will be traded this year

I would go Super Saiyan and blow up the earth.

 

[AgentDib]

It's all about windows.... So now it' onto the next window, which if Pete and John draft well again, and be smart about the cap should be in another 2-3 years before we're ready to seriously compete.

I just completely disagree with this line of thinking. I think it falls out of the narrative fallacy where we look to cycles to explain why teams go up and down, but nobody ever gets it right looking forwards. There's a lot of uncertainty in a sport with only 16 games and then single elimination playoffs. The team that wins every year isn't the one with the perfect roster but the one that got hot at the right time.

The Eagles didn't win because they had a long-term rebuilding arc that led them into a "window", they had a great front seven that was strongly buoyed by cheap veteran contracts: Long for 3.1m, Ngata for 3.0m, Jernigan for 5m, Graham for 7m. They were paying fair market price for their superstar (Fletcher Cox $17.9m).

In my view the only reason why "windows" close in the NFL is when front offices commit too many resources to the present and turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy like we did last season.

 

[ivotuk]

Nothing will happen. This is all wild speculation. Welcome to the new millennia, where bullshit reigns supreme.

Remember "We have it on good authority that Russell Wilson will be asking for a fully guaranteed contract."

 

[original poster]

As the days go on and the more rumors that are floated out on Twitter, it sounds like Tampa might be the team most interested. Their 1st round pick is untouchable, but their 2nd and 3rd rounders are in great spots. They need safety help, and have been tied to taking Derwin James at #7 who just so happens to have the same agent as Earl. Having an ET, James combo back there would be damn good.

I would be happy with this deal:

Tampa Gets:
Earl Thomas

Hawks get:
Tampas '18 second rounder (38), '18 third rounder (69th overall) and a '19 second rounder.

If this did go down, I would then slide money to Eric Reid and role a Reid McDouglad safety combo out next year.
:irishdrinkers:

Tampa don't have a third this year unfortunately, that's why my proposed deal included the 2019 2nd which is very handy as we don't have a 2019 second currently.

Where are you seeing that they don't have a third? Every mock draft site I have looked at states they do.

This is the official Bucs site - http://www.buccaneers.com/draft/index.html

 

[Sgt. Largent]

In my view the only reason why "windows" close in the NFL is when front offices commit too many resources to the present and turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy like we did last season.

Right, and the only way to fix the problem of having no picks and no cap space is to jettison those contracts and stockpile picks using your most valuable players...........and right now the only players we have that have major trade value and bloated contracts are Earl, Russell and Wagner.

We're not trading Bobby or Russell, so you do the math. If you keep Earl, you're prolonging the re-build because you don't have enough picks this year, or even next to fill all the holes on this roster right now.

 

[Seymour]

In my view the only reason why "windows" close in the NFL is when front offices commit too many resources to the present and turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy like we did last season.

Right, and the only way to fix the problem of having no picks and no cap space is to jettison those contracts and stockpile picks using your most valuable players...........and right now the only players we have that have major trade value and bloated contracts are Earl, Russell and Wagner.

We're not trading Bobby or Russell, so you do the math. If you keep Earl, you're prolonging the re-build because you don't have enough picks this year, or even next to fill all the holes on this roster right now.

Then we just got burned BAD on the Duanne Brown trade giving up a 2nd and a 3rd for him. We would be glad to get that for Earl at this point! :141847_bnono:

 

[Sgt. Largent]

In my view the only reason why "windows" close in the NFL is when front offices commit too many resources to the present and turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy like we did last season.

Right, and the only way to fix the problem of having no picks and no cap space is to jettison those contracts and stockpile picks using your most valuable players...........and right now the only players we have that have major trade value and bloated contracts are Earl, Russell and Wagner.

We're not trading Bobby or Russell, so you do the math. If you keep Earl, you're prolonging the re-build because you don't have enough picks this year, or even next to fill all the holes on this roster right now.

Then we just got burned BAD on the Duanne Brown trade giving up a 2nd and a 3rd for him. We would be glad to get that for Earl at this point! :141847_bnono:

Sure, we'd obviously rather get a 1st, but if we're not going to give him the monster extension he wants? Then why hold onto him through a rebuild?

Take the 2nd and 3rd, and maybe you get a decent player as well.

 

[AgentDib]

Then we just got burned BAD on the Duanne Brown trade giving up a 2nd and a 3rd for him. We would be glad to get that for Earl at this point! :141847_bnono:

Which is why I was unhappy with the Brown/Richardson moves, the contract adjustments for RW and Baldwin, and giving Kam that much guaranteed money. If we don't go all-in that way then we're likely not even having this "rebuild vs. reload" discussion right now. However, even teams like the Saints have shown that you can pull off a complete fire sale/dump year but then be competitive again very quickly just by hitting on a couple of key rookies in a draft.

The glass-half full take on Brown is that he was hampered due to injury last season; he has said he was as low as 50% effective due to his injury at one point. There's hope that the Brown deal could look better next season if he's fully healthy, although that's a question mark in itself at his age.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

However, even teams like the Saints have shown that you can pull off a complete fire sale/dump year but then be competitive again very quickly just by hitting on a couple of key rookies in a draft..

The Saints went 7-9 for three years straight rebuilding................and that's about a realistic timeline for this team with how many holes we currently have on the roster.

 

[AgentDib]

The reason we see things differently here is I think the Saints could have gone 7-9 for ten straight years rebuilding too. Last year they killed their draft with hits on five starters in Marshon Lattimore at CB, Alex Anzalone at Will LB, Alvin Kamara at RB, Ryan Ramcyzk at OT and Marcus Williams at FS. They also added four more starter caliber players in FA with LBs AJ Klein and Alex Okafor, WR Ted Ginn and OG Larry Warford. That's why they were good in 2017 in my view, not because fans were patient in 2015 and 2016 through a baseball style three-year rebuilding plan.

Why this matters to me is fan expectations for 2018. If we hit on the draft this year then I fully expect us to be competitive now. If we miss on it again then we won't be, so the argument for trading Earl has less to do with a closing window and more about increasing draft picks for an expiring contract if we don't plan on resigning him.

 

[original poster]

Why this matters to me is fan expectations for 2018. If we hit on the draft this year then I fully expect us to be competitive now.

Could not agree more with this.

Things can change fast in this league, that includes rising and falling.

 

[chris98251]

Why this matters to me is fan expectations for 2018. If we hit on the draft this year then I fully expect us to be competitive now.

Could not agree more with this.

Things can change fast in this league, that includes rising and falling.

Have to have some picks to hit on the draft however, bargain bin shopping is great as far as rounds but I think it's hard to live there 100 percent of the time.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

The reason we see things differently here is I think the Saints could have gone 7-9 for ten straight years rebuilding too. Last year they killed their draft with hits on five starters in Marshon Lattimore at CB, Alex Anzalone at Will LB, Alvin Kamara at RB, Ryan Ramcyzk at OT and Marcus Williams at FS. They also added four more starter caliber players in FA with LBs AJ Klein and Alex Okafor, WR Ted Ginn and OG Larry Warford. That's why they were good in 2017 in my view, not because fans were patient in 2015 and 2016 through a baseball style three-year rebuilding plan.

Why this matters to me is fan expectations for 2018. If we hit on the draft this year then I fully expect us to be competitive now. If we miss on it again then we won't be, so the argument for trading Earl has less to do with a closing window and more about increasing draft picks for an expiring contract if we don't plan on resigning him.

The reason they killed it though last year is because they took those three years to purge all the dead weight in cap space off their rosters..........AND drafted well over those 2-3 years of bad records.

I appreciate your optimism, but you need to explain to me how we're going to fill holes and depth at just about every position with very little cap space and picks this year to a SB caliber roster....................AND try and compete in now one of the hardest divisions in the NFL.

 

[Seymour]

The reason we see things differently here is I think the Saints could have gone 7-9 for ten straight years rebuilding too. Last year they killed their draft with hits on five starters in Marshon Lattimore at CB, Alex Anzalone at Will LB, Alvin Kamara at RB, Ryan Ramcyzk at OT and Marcus Williams at FS. They also added four more starter caliber players in FA with LBs AJ Klein and Alex Okafor, WR Ted Ginn and OG Larry Warford. That's why they were good in 2017 in my view, not because fans were patient in 2015 and 2016 through a baseball style three-year rebuilding plan.

Why this matters to me is fan expectations for 2018. If we hit on the draft this year then I fully expect us to be competitive now. If we miss on it again then we won't be, so the argument for trading Earl has less to do with a closing window and more about increasing draft picks for an expiring contract if we don't plan on resigning him.

The reason they killed it though last year is because they took those three years to purge all the dead weight in cap space off their rosters..........AND drafted well over those 2-3 years of bad records.

I appreciate your optimism, but you need to explain to me how we're going to fill holes and depth at just about every position with very little cap space and picks this year to a SB caliber roster....................AND try and compete in now one of the hardest divisions in the NFL.

^^^^^^^^^
That is the real reason I think Pete may be done here. He set himself up to fail when he dug too deep. Not impossible, just improbable IMO (assuming 2 more years to Pete's final year get to the playoffs).

 

[Sports Hernia]

The reason we see things differently here is I think the Saints could have gone 7-9 for ten straight years rebuilding too. Last year they killed their draft with hits on five starters in Marshon Lattimore at CB, Alex Anzalone at Will LB, Alvin Kamara at RB, Ryan Ramcyzk at OT and Marcus Williams at FS. They also added four more starter caliber players in FA with LBs AJ Klein and Alex Okafor, WR Ted Ginn and OG Larry Warford. That's why they were good in 2017 in my view, not because fans were patient in 2015 and 2016 through a baseball style three-year rebuilding plan.

Why this matters to me is fan expectations for 2018. If we hit on the draft this year then I fully expect us to be competitive now. If we miss on it again then we won't be, so the argument for trading Earl has less to do with a closing window and more about increasing draft picks for an expiring contract if we don't plan on resigning him.

The reason they killed it though last year is because they took those three years to purge all the dead weight in cap space off their rosters..........AND drafted well over those 2-3 years of bad records.

I appreciate your optimism, but you need to explain to me how we're going to fill holes and depth at just about every position with very little cap space and picks this year to a SB caliber roster....................AND try and compete in now one of the hardest divisions in the NFL.

^^^^^^^^^
That is the real reason I think Pete may be done here. He set himself up to fail when he dug too deep. Not impossible, just improbable IMO (assuming 2 more years to Pete's final year get to the playoffs).

As much as it is Pets’s Fault, and it is, John had a pretty severe part of the blame as well.

 

[AgentDib]

I appreciate your optimism, but you need to explain to me how we're going to fill holes and depth at just about every position with very little cap space and picks this year to a SB caliber roster...

I've been pretty vocal about not liking them going all-in last year either and think our current issues are largely self inflicted. That being said, I expect us to make 9+ selections in the draft and pick up another dozen UDFAs. If you're willing to look at a world where we hit on many of those picks then our roster looks dramatically rosier. I currently see two large holes on the roster at LG and RCB and smaller holes at RB and pass rush. I'd also feel okay at RCB if the eventual thought is to cut Avril to make room for Shead.

Let's say we trade Earl to the Chargers for #48 and #84, then trade #18 to the Panthers for #24 and #85. Those are both individually plausible. It's much less plausible to assume that all of our draft picks turn out well, but imagine something like this where they do.

#24: CB Josh Jackson starts at RCB
#48: OG Connor Williams starts at LG
#84: RB Rashaad Penny shares carries with a healthy Chris Carson
#85: DE Uchenna Nwosu contributes to the pass rush rotation
#120: TE Dalton Schultz provides a red zone target for RW
#141: OT Chukwama Okorafor backs up an improved Ifedi at RT
#148: WR Allen Lazard provides another big target for RW
#168: S Terrell Edmunds replaces Tyson as utility safety/NCB
#226: K Eddy Pineiro is our new PK
#248: OLB Chris Covington looks great behind KJ at WILL
#250: DT Bill Nichols slots into the rotation with Naz and Jarran
UDFA: QB Logan Woodside fills the mobile backup spot for RW

Obviously that's unlikely, but if you add versions of those players who succeed in the NFL to our existing roster then we look very dominant. In reality we don't need everything to hit as we're also taking fliers on FAs like Fluker, Mingo, Dickson, Alexander and Fowler. Plugging our biggest holes with difference makers would have us in playoff contention.

It sounds boring to say that we need a good draft because it's so obvious, but it's the sort of obvious point that everybody acknowledges but then immediately moves onto focusing on much less important things because they are more interesting.

 

[Spin Doctor]

The reason we see things differently here is I think the Saints could have gone 7-9 for ten straight years rebuilding too. Last year they killed their draft with hits on five starters in Marshon Lattimore at CB, Alex Anzalone at Will LB, Alvin Kamara at RB, Ryan Ramcyzk at OT and Marcus Williams at FS. They also added four more starter caliber players in FA with LBs AJ Klein and Alex Okafor, WR Ted Ginn and OG Larry Warford. That's why they were good in 2017 in my view, not because fans were patient in 2015 and 2016 through a baseball style three-year rebuilding plan.

Why this matters to me is fan expectations for 2018. If we hit on the draft this year then I fully expect us to be competitive now. If we miss on it again then we won't be, so the argument for trading Earl has less to do with a closing window and more about increasing draft picks for an expiring contract if we don't plan on resigning him.

The reason they killed it though last year is because they took those three years to purge all the dead weight in cap space off their rosters..........AND drafted well over those 2-3 years of bad records.

I appreciate your optimism, but you need to explain to me how we're going to fill holes and depth at just about every position with very little cap space and picks this year to a SB caliber roster....................AND try and compete in now one of the hardest divisions in the NFL.

^^^^^^^^^
That is the real reason I think Pete may be done here. He set himself up to fail when he dug too deep. Not impossible, just improbable IMO (assuming 2 more years to Pete's final year get to the playoffs).

As much as it is Pets’s Fault, and it is, John had a pretty severe part of the blame as well.

Pete is also in a relatively unique situation. He is one of the select few coaches in the NFL that has the final say in every move the FO makes. Everything goes runs through Pete -- in fact it was Pete himself who hired John Schneider in the first place. Schneider and Carroll come as a team, if one falls so does the other. They both shoulder for the blame for success or lack thereof. Objectively they are both at fault.

This puts the tandem in question in an interesting spot. Our team has been slowly declining in every year following that ill fated Superbowl. If the team sinks deeper into the abyss of cesspool of mediocrity I don't think Carroll is going to be around come this time next year. Paul Allen has already shown that he is willing to cut bait if he doesn't like the direction the team is moving. Carroll is in a position where he needs to silence doubters, and quick. I think he, himself really doesn't want to linger in the NFL for more than two years given his age. Quite frankly I'm surprised he didn't retire. The Carroll on the sideline looked like an old man. The previous luster, and energy Carroll possessed was replaced by anger. He looked frustrated, and at some times indifferent.

Given Carroll's age, and the teams downward slope, I think it is reasonable to say that he is looking for a quick jolt. This is why I think talks about Carroll trading Wilson is insanity. I think Carroll is on the right track here by getting rid of Sherman, and Bennett. Sherman received a massive injury, and he was a controversial figure. There were murmurs that Seattle was looking to trade him last season as well. I think we can assume that there was something Sherman did to get on Pete's bad side. Bennett got traded because he was a distraction -- and the fact that started showing his age in the second half of the season. Bennett also struggled to play within the confines of the defense, plus he was one of the most penalized players in football last season. Sloppy play all around by Bennett.

I think addition by subtraction was the right move here. I think trading Earl is the right move as well. I don't think he wants to be a 'Hawk anymore. I also think he doesn't buy into what Pete is selling. His criticism of his teammates on social media and Cowboys stunt really are some big red flags to me as a fan. The firings of Cable, Bev, and Richard were also good moves. Richard couldn't reign in his players, neither could Bev, and Cable was just a horrible line coach. All of our new hires are militaristic, old school style of coaches -- meaning Carroll wants to bring back some semblance of structure to his organization.

I'm also a fan of not signing some high dollar free agent given our cap situation. We went with the role players, and value picks. I'm okay with this. Depend on the June cuts, and the draft, I think we can compete. I think we're going to look more to players that can contribute more NOW, rather than later with our strategy. I have a sneaking suspicion that a player such as Guice may be our first pick.

 

[IndyHawk]

The reason they killed it though last year is because they took those three years to purge all the dead weight in cap space off their rosters..........AND drafted well over those 2-3 years of bad records.

I appreciate your optimism, but you need to explain to me how we're going to fill holes and depth at just about every position with very little cap space and picks this year to a SB caliber roster....................AND try and compete in now one of the hardest divisions in the NFL.

^^^^^^^^^
That is the real reason I think Pete may be done here. He set himself up to fail when he dug too deep. Not impossible, just improbable IMO (assuming 2 more years to Pete's final year get to the playoffs).

As much as it is Pets’s Fault, and it is, John had a pretty severe part of the blame as well.

Pete is also in a relatively unique situation. He is one of the select few coaches in the NFL that has the final say in every move the FO makes. Everything goes runs through Pete -- in fact it was Pete himself who hired John Schneider in the first place. Schneider and Carroll come as a team, if one falls so does the other. They both shoulder for the blame for success or lack thereof. Objectively they are both at fault.

This puts the tandem in question in an interesting spot. Our team has been slowly declining in every year following that ill fated Superbowl. If the team sinks deeper into the abyss of cesspool of mediocrity I don't think Carroll is going to be around come this time next year. Paul Allen has already shown that he is willing to cut bait if he doesn't like the direction the team is moving. Carroll is in a position where he needs to silence doubters, and quick. I think he, himself really doesn't want to linger in the NFL for more than two years given his age. Quite frankly I'm surprised he didn't retire. The Carroll on the sideline looked like an old man. The previous luster, and energy Carroll possessed was replaced by anger. He looked frustrated, and at some times indifferent.

Given Carroll's age, and the teams downward slope, I think it is reasonable to say that he is looking for a quick jolt. This is why I think talks about Carroll trading Wilson is insanity. I think Carroll is on the right track here by getting rid of Sherman, and Bennett. Sherman received a massive injury, and he was a controversial figure. There were murmurs that Seattle was looking to trade him last season as well. I think we can assume that there was something Sherman did to get on Pete's bad side. Bennett got traded because he was a distraction -- and the fact that started showing his age in the second half of the season. Bennett also struggled to play within the confines of the defense, plus he was one of the most penalized players in football last season. Sloppy play all around by Bennett.

I think addition by subtraction was the right move here. I think trading Earl is the right move as well. I don't think he wants to be a 'Hawk anymore. I also think he doesn't buy into what Pete is selling. His criticism of his teammates on social media and Cowboys stunt really are some big red flags to me as a fan. The firings of Cable, Bev, and Richard were also good moves. Richard couldn't reign in his players, neither could Bev, and Cable was just a horrible line coach. All of our new hires are militaristic, old school style of coaches -- meaning Carroll wants to bring back some semblance of structure to his organization.

I'm also a fan of not signing some high dollar free agent given our cap situation. We went with the role players, and value picks. I'm okay with this. Depend on the June cuts, and the draft, I think we can compete. I think we're going to look more to players that can contribute more NOW, rather than later with our strategy. I have a sneaking suspicion that a player such as Guice may be our first pick.

Good post Spin..I agree with most of it