With some of the discussions on the board, I decided to collect a little data to gain some perspective on this question. So I counted the number of QBs drafted from 1993 (the year the Hawks drafted Rick Mirer) through 2018 and classified them as Busts and Not Busts. I stopped in 2018 primarily because I didn't feel I could justify assigning a classification to Kyler Murray or Daniel Jones. I will also admit that, while most of the classifications were easy (e.g., Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf) some were more subjective. For example, I classified Michael Vick as not a bust despite his off-field issues because around his two-year suspension, he had an excellent thirteen year career. However, I listed Deshaun Watson as a bust because, after a great start to his career, he's hardly played in the past three years, was dropped by the team that drafted him, and has had significant off field issues. Anyway, here's the data:
- Total QBs drafted: 67 In Top 10: 43 Outside Top 10: 24
- Not Busts: 32 In Top 10: 21 Outside Top 10: 11
- Busts: 35 In Top 10: 22 Outside Top 10: 13
- Bust %: 52.2 Busts %: 51.2 Busts %: 54.2
Of the 21 Not Busts in top 10, all but one played in at least one pro bowl.
Of the 11 Not Busts outside the top 10, 6 played in at least one pro bowl and 5 did not.
