Overall best QBs by team

Sgt. Largent

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People aren’t enamored with Richardson just because of his athletic gifts. There is a reason why he’s held in much higher regard than Malik Willis.

Not sure how this is even possible with his extremely limited starting body of work.

I have no idea if AR will be a great, or even good NFL QB. But I do know this, of all the prospects we're considering drafting at 5? He probably comes with the highest risk of being a bust, for the reason I just mentioned.

John and Pete tend to gravitate towards QB's with a LARGE body of tape, 4 year starter in Russ's case, and an entire decade on NFL experience in Geno. So I'd be shocked they use a once a generational pick at 5 on a raw unproven QB prospect, no matter what his measurables are.
 

Ozzy

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Richardson and Willis aren't even remotely close as prospects. The media made Willis a thing. Scouts were always right about him and they all view the two prospects as polar opposites. That doesn't mean Richardson isn't a risk but hes light years ahead of Willis as a prospect.

Richardson's adjusted completion percentage was around 65%. His team was terrible and his receivers weren't very good.
 
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oldhawkfan

oldhawkfan

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I still contend that Mirer was not a bust. Gave us a solid rookie season and a pick that was used (through further trades) to land both Shawn Springs and Walter Jones in the same draft.
As a viable long term QB option he was a bust. Never really did improve on what he showed as a rookie. In terms of providing additional draft capital, then yes he was a success.
 

Sgt. Largent

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Richardson and Willis aren't even remotely close as prospects. The media made Willis a thing. Scouts were always right about him and they all view the two prospects as polar opposites. That doesn't mean Richardson isn't a risk but hes light years ahead of Willis as a prospect.

Richardson's adjusted completion percentage was around 65%. His team was terrible and his receivers weren't very good.

You're right, Willis had better stats in every statistical category. Almost double the yards, almost double the TD's and a higher QBR and completion percentage.
 

AgentDib

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Can you name a single team or player that Malik Willis played against without googling it? I sure couldn't. Regardless of who you like better they are not comparable as prospects with very different backgrounds and play styles. I didn't have Willis on my board last year and Richardson is currently in my top 5.

Willis was a mobile QB who was always looking for an excuse to leave the pocket. That's where he felt comfortable making plays off script and picking up yards with his legs. There was no indication in college of Willis working through progressions or even having to go to a second read. If his first option wasn't wide open then he was scrambling.

Richardson wants to be a pocket passer and doesn't scramble as much as he could or probably should. When he feels pressure his first instinct is to move around within the pocket and buy time for somebody to get open. He regularly worked through progressions, including looking off safeties and coming back underneath to easier targets if the big play wasn't there. His deep ball and intermediate accuracy are good when he has his feet set. The age matters a lot to me too - three years younger than Willis or Levis so you should expect much more room to grow.

There's definitely risk with Richardson but that's true of everybody. Stroud and Anderson are safer picks but who else is? Mayer, Bijan, and Branch maybe but the positional values there are way lower.
 

Mick063

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Can you name a single team or player that Malik Willis played against without googling it? I sure couldn't. Regardless of who you like better they are not comparable as prospects with very different backgrounds and play styles. I didn't have Willis on my board last year and Richardson is currently in my top 5.

Willis was a mobile QB who was always looking for an excuse to leave the pocket. That's where he felt comfortable making plays off script and picking up yards with his legs. There was no indication in college of Willis working through progressions or even having to go to a second read. If his first option wasn't wide open then he was scrambling.

Richardson wants to be a pocket passer and doesn't scramble as much as he could or probably should. When he feels pressure his first instinct is to move around within the pocket and buy time for somebody to get open. He regularly worked through progressions, including looking off safeties and coming back underneath to easier targets if the big play wasn't there. His deep ball and intermediate accuracy are good when he has his feet set. The age matters a lot to me too - three years younger than Willis or Levis so you should expect much more room to grow.

There's definitely risk with Richardson but that's true of everybody. Stroud and Anderson are safer picks but who else is? Mayer, Bijan, and Branch maybe but the positional values there are way lower.
Burrow was developed on the college dime and will deliver 4.5 years of rookie deal value.

Richardson would be developed on the Seahawks dime and deliver, at best, three years of rookie deal value and at worst, Jordan Love/Trey Lance value. In other words, three years later they still don't know what they truly have. That isn't just a bust. That is a delayed bust that screws up roster planning for a full extra three extra seasons. The team passing on future potentially drafted quarterbacks because they still have to save face for drafting a QB bust three years ago. It can set you back on the position for a half decade. And to top it off, Richardson isn't in the same stratosphere as Burrow and never will be.

An earlier post is right. It is about development. Let the colleges do the developing for you. Teams are on a five-year timer with quarterbacks and then it is fifty million per year QB salary time. Because of that, the days of developing top five drafted quarterbacks are over. There are two proven methods. 1) Throw your youngish college sophomore, early draft declaring, rookie QB into the fire, sink or swim. Fully knowing that the bust chance is greatly increased as you potentially destroy his confidence with repeated rookie mistakes from lack of game experience. 2) Let the college develop their senior, four-year starter QB for you, but at least the rookie starter has loads of game experience. Either way, as a pro, it is the FIVE-YEAR TIMER that drives the process. Trust me. The Green Bay Packers are thoroughly regretting not following that process. Perhaps the Jets will bail them out with a desperate trade for an old, habitually disgruntled, nearly washed up QB. Guess what the Packers will ultimately end up doing with that Jets draft capital? They will DRAFT ANOTHER QB. Why? Because they wasted Jordan Love's rookie deal.

To make the drafting of Richardson work, you just about HAVE to start him over Geno to get your money's worth. Otherwise, you get the Jordan Love situation. This is why I am extremely confident that Seattle will PASS on Richardson.
 
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JerHawk81

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Good list and interesting thought. But when you limit to players from the last 10-20 years, only 1-2 of those guys were taken after round 1.
 

chris98251

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I still contend that Mirer was not a bust. Gave us a solid rookie season and a pick that was used (through further trades) to land both Shawn Springs and Walter Jones in the same draft.
Mirer looked to have potential, he then had in his second year the worst line we have ever had and he got David Carr syndrome, he didn't get over it in Chicago but managed to resurrect himself in New York and had some good games as a back up. That's what throwing a QB into the fire without a team around them can do as a drafted rookie. David Carr and Ric Mirer both casualties of a GM that got his QB before he had a team around him.
 

AgentDib

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Richardson would be developed on the Seahawks dime and deliver, at best, three years of rookie deal value
The first extension after the low rookie QB contract is also a big advantage and wildly swings the math. Here is what Richardson's cap hits might look like if we drafted him at #5 and then followed QB extension arcs of Hurts, Allen or Mahomes.

2023: 6.1m
2024: 7.7m
2025: 9.3m
2026: 11.2m
2027: 15.6m
2028: 24.0m
2029: 35.0m
2030: 50m+
2031: 60m+...

Even completely throwing away that first season, if Richardson turns out to be good there is a huge difference there between market value and what we'd be paying him. If he turns out to be great then that value becomes enormous. And yes, there's always the risk that you end up with a Russ baseball agent or Lamar being his own agent and things go more poorly than this, but this is the low hanging fruit for any team trying to create value under a fixed salary cap.

That isn't just a bust. That is a delayed bust that screws up roster planning for a full extra three extra seasons. The team passing on future potentially drafted quarterbacks because they still have to save face for drafting a QB bust three years ago. It can set you back on the position for a half decade.
I don't buy that a good decision can become bad if it opens you up to the possibility of bad decisions down the road. Those outcomes should be separated and we should be in the business of making the good ones and avoiding the bad ones.

And to top it off, Richardson isn't in the same stratosphere as Burrow and never will be.
If that's your opinion then that's all the reason you need not to draft him. My point is mainly that drafting QBs in general makes a lot of sense under the current cap and rookie allocation rules, even in cases like ours where we have a veteran. I don't see Burrow much as a comp in either direction, other than at times both players tend to hang out within the pocket a little longer than I want them to.
 

Spin Doctor

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Not sure how this is even possible with his extremely limited starting body of work.

I have no idea if AR will be a great, or even good NFL QB. But I do know this, of all the prospects we're considering drafting at 5? He probably comes with the highest risk of being a bust, for the reason I just mentioned.

John and Pete tend to gravitate towards QB's with a LARGE body of tape, 4 year starter in Russ's case, and an entire decade on NFL experience in Geno. So I'd be shocked they use a once a generational pick at 5 on a raw unproven QB prospect, no matter what his measurables are.
Do they? This is the same team that sent a third round pick for Charlie Whitehurst, a guy that never had a single start in the NFL in hopes that he’d be able to compete with Hasselbeck.

They moved on from a veteran in Matt Hasselbeck and started a younger Tarvaris Jackson. They gave the starter job to a rookie Russell Wilson over a veteran QB that we just gave a HUGE contract to in Flynn.

I think that statement is making a lot of assumptions. You can’t make that statement with any sort of certainty, especially since there is some evidence of the contrary.
 
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oldhawkfan

oldhawkfan

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If they choose to take a QB high, or even at all, they have maneuvered both Geno and Lock contracts as easy outs. So if said potential pick turns out to be good then starting next year we could have a new starter on the majority of his rookie deal.
 

Sgt. Largent

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At Liberty, yes.

I keep being told I can't judge Richardson's terrible completion % because he had a bad line and bad receivers.

I assume Liberty's line and receivers were even worse.

You guys are sure trying to talk yourselves into this one aren't you.
 

Sgt. Largent

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Do they? This is the same team that sent a third round pick for Charlie Whitehurst, a guy that never had a single start in the NFL in hopes that he’d be able to compete with Hasselbeck.

They moved on from a veteran in Matt Hasselbeck and started a younger Tarvaris Jackson. They gave the starter job to a rookie Russell Wilson over a veteran QB that we just gave a HUGE contract to in Flynn.

I think that statement is making a lot of assumptions. You can’t make that statement with any sort of certainty, especially since there is some evidence of the contrary.

3rd round picks are not taking a risk like the #5 overall pick.

Jackson had years of NFL experience. Neither of these examples refute my point.
 

Jac

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3rd round picks are not taking a risk like the #5 overall pick.

Jackson had years of NFL experience. Neither of these examples refute my point.
There isn't a generational talent that will be there at #5. It's not unlikely that both Will Anderson and Jalen Carter both have good, not great, careers. Taking a chance on a QB at #5 is not a risk in that sense. It's risky NOT taking a chance on one of the QBs.
 

Mick063

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There isn't a generational talent that will be there at #5. It's not unlikely that both Will Anderson and Jalen Carter both have good, not great, careers. Taking a chance on a QB at #5 is not a risk in that sense. It's risky NOT taking a chance on one of the QBs.
Both Anderson and Carter have much more video of ELITE play than Richardson. Richardson's stock is based entirely upon envisioned potential and the accompanying ego of a staff that thinks they can deliver what he has never shown. Quarterbacks don't typically feel compelled to throw the ball at the ceiling or do backflips, unless they were playing upon such egos. In other words, if the video can't deliver, perhaps the showing off can. It is actually more of an appeal to the media, and indirectly to the fans in an effort to apply pressure on the GM's to elevate draft status and the associated financial compensation that comes with it. It is an aura that feels much more like Manziel than Mahomes. Regardless, it wasn't until the combine that Richardson's stock, mostly within the media pundit class, has seen the big rise. When folks were routinely watching him play every Saturday, not so much. The recency bias certainly favors the backflip over the actual games.
 

Jac

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Both Anderson and Carter have much more video of ELITE play than Richardson. Richardson's stock is based entirely upon envisioned potential and the accompanying ego of a staff that thinks they can deliver what he has never shown. Quarterbacks don't typically feel compelled to throw the ball at the ceiling or do backflips, unless they were playing upon such egos. In other words, if the video can't deliver, perhaps the showing off can. It is actually more of an appeal to the media, and indirectly to the fans in an effort to apply pressure on the GM's to elevate draft status and the associated financial compensation that comes with it. It is an aura that feels much more like Manziel than Mahomes. Regardless, it wasn't until the combine that Richardson's stock, mostly within the media pundit class, has seen the big rise. When folks were routinely watching him play every Saturday, not so much. The recency bias certainly favors the backflip over the actual games.
Anderson or Carter aren't going to win you a SB. Neither will Geno Smith. One of these QBs might. That's the risk/gamble they're evaluating.
 

jeremiah

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This is it for 4th rounders since 2000. I included Cousins in that.

Round Four

Successes

Dak Prescott
Kirk Cousins
Kyle Orton
David Garrard

Failures
Jacob Eason
James Morgan
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Kyle Lauletta
Joshua Dobbs
Conner Cook
Cardale Jones
Bryce Petty
Logan Thomas
Tom Savage
Matt Barkley
Ryan Nassib
Tyler Wilson
Landry Jones
Mike Kafka
Stephen McGee
Isaiah Stanback
Stefan Lefors
Luke McCown
Seneca Wallace
Rohan Davey
Chris Weinke
Sage Rosenfels
Jesse Palmer

Success Rate: 4 of 29 (13.8%)

And some would say it's generous to call Orton and Garrard franchise QBs.
I remember when a certain USC coach publicly told sports writers and broadcasters that Matt Barkley would be the best QB to ever come out of USC. That was just after Carson Palmer, who was a great Division 1 player, and pretty solid as a Pro. Coach Carroll is not very good picking QBs...just adding this here because of the memory trigger.
 
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