Hit/Miss on QBs by round 2000-2010

[seabowl]

I would not put Kyle Orton and David Garrard as successes. Overall very nice work though.

 

[Jegpeg]

I wasn’t a fan of RG3 when he came out of college he was more concerned about his 40 time than actually playing the position of QB. The system that Baylor used didn’t translate well to the NFL with all of the extreme spacing. Some of the best QBs to ever play were not good athletes

I don't really follow the college game. He won OROTY in a year of tough competition (Luck and ME3) but did nothing after that, mainly due to injury. Does that mean he is a "failure" or he would have been a franchise QB if it wasn't for his injury?

 

[Hawkinaz]

I don't really follow the college game. He won OROTY in a year of tough competition (Luck and ME3) but did nothing after that, mainly due to injury. Does that mean he is a "failure" or he would have been a franchise QB if it wasn't for his injury?

As far as the 2012 OROTY Luck lost it on the amount of interceptions he threw while RG3 did a better job taking care of the ball

You never know how RG3 would have played if not for the ACL injury he did have the advantage of playing for a very good offensive coach while Luck was more on his own and the GM not wanting to help him by drafting O line and the owner blaming Luck for not throwing the ball fast enough

 

[WarHawks]

A lot have said their is a big drop of after the top 3 picks so split it further. I also included RG III as a failure I am not sure if he was accidentally missed or missed out because he was mainly a failure due to injury but injury risk is one thing that is included in draft selection.

Picks 4-12 do at least as well as top 3 picks which is interesting. If you limit it to the last 10 years it is even more marked with Burrow, Murray and Goff being the only sucesses and 7 failures. Is this due to teams with top 3 picks having inept people drafting, impossible situations to perform in or does the pressure of being a really high pick make it much more difficult to perform?

It does at least indicate the wins by the Broncos and Texans in week 18 weren't a total disaster in terms of our chances of getting talent in the draft.

FIRST ROUND top 3 overall

Successes
Joe Burrow
Kyler Murray
Jared Goff
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford (debatable)
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Alex Smith (debatable)
Eli Manning
Michael Vick

FAILURES
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz (debatable)
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Blake Bortles
Robert Griffin III (debatable)
Jamarcus Russell
David Carr
Joey Harrington

Success rate: 11 of 22 (50%)

DRAFTED 4-12
SUCCESSES
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Daniel Jones (debatable)
Josh Allen
Patrick Mahomes
DeShaun Watson
Jay Cutler
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Carson Palmer
Vince Young (debatable)

FAILURES

Josh Rosen
Ryan Tannehill (debatable)
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Mark Sanchez
Matt Leinart
Byron Leftwich

Success rate: 11 of 19 (57.9%)

This thread has aged pretty well. Interesting that the success rate for qb's from 4-12 is actually higher than picking in the top three. Who knew? And after 12, it falls off a cliff. So we either move up, or pick defense, statistically speaking. And even then, the hit rate for all first round picks is basically a coin flip.

 

[Seahawker]

Nice job Rat, great thread.
Jim Zorn & Dave Krieg sure were longshots.

 

[Rat]

This thread has aged pretty well.

Except for where I categorized Jordan Love as a "failure" lol.