SonicHawk":1gx2xqav said:
Vegas lines are intended to have equal betting and guaranteeing a Vegas win, they usually represent who the public thinks will win and everyone couldn't wait to jump off the Cardinals bandwagon.
Cardinals are currently favorite though in ATL as they should be (although the line opened with ATL favored)
Not respecting a 9-2 team -- a team that beat Philadelphia, San Diego, Dallas AND Detroit -- is simply ignorant. Arizona is a damn good team and while their offense struggled to get going and consistently left Seattle in great field position, we only were able to muster a hard-fought 19 points.
At some point people are going to stop talking about Arizona's win over Dallas like it was something besides a win over an awful backup QB in Brandon Weeden, right?
Anyway, I hate that there's so much misunderstanding about Vegas lines out there, but I get it since I bought into the dismissive hand-waving at one point as well. Vegas lines ARE strongly predictive of game outcomes and team strength. The hope in setting a line is to get an even amount of money to each side, but the money that controls the lines is the sharp money that comes in from professional gamblers...they're the ones who pour in the big money, whereas the casual gamblers out there only comprise a small percentage of total money gambled on the games. So it's the sharps making unemotional, non-superstitious business decisions controlling the line, and the long-term results bear that out. There is a very direct correlation, according to historical data, that a team's win percentage increases with bigger spreads. The lines at the pro level are very, very good.
This is to say that the Vegas lines are rating the Cardinals pretty much correctly, as they rate every team pretty much correctly...the lines may not be outright perfect, but they're easily the best objective measurement out there.
The betting market currently rates Arizona 14th in the league. Admittedly, I overstepped by calling them "garbage"...they're an average NFL team, and well above the actual garbage teams like Jacksonville. Sort of an overreaction on my part due to frustration with people who insist on calling them a "damn good team" when they're not one.