What's With the Niner Love?

[kobebryant]

From a bettor perspective there are a lot of trend and formulas that the "sharps" use that point to the 49ers being favored.

When two good teams play emotion then becomes a huge determining factor. Now, this Hawks team hasn't been known to have any let downs but the 49ers are still in a wild card race, while the Seahawks would have to stumble badly down the stretch to give up HFA. The 49ers need it more. The 49ers have been embarassed by the Hawks in two straight games. The Hawks are coming off a huge meaningful victory.

As much as the Hawks consistently go all out and play with great emotion it will still be hard to match the 49ers "want to" and "need to" in this game. If the 49ers win it would mean so much to them, if the Hawks lose it will mean very little to the Hawks.

Except the Niners DON'T need it more. Seattle does because Seattle can clinch right now (well not HFA but everything else including the division). San Fran can't clinch anything but they also aren't in any jeapordy either.

I have to disagree with you there. Seattle could lose this game and still control their fate in terms of HFA.

The 49ers are 8-4; the Cowboys, Cards and Eagles are 7-5. If the 49ers lose and the Cowboys, Cards and Eagles win (all very possible) there are then 4 teams at 8-5. We'll give one wildcard to either the Saints or Panthers and a divisonal spot to either the Boys or Eagles.

That puts the 49ers (Cards + NFCE #2) in a three-way race from a dead heat with 3 games remaining for one spot.

 

[rideaducati]

I have come to the conclusion that none of the "experts" watch the Seahawks games unless they are the only game on. It's pretty easy to tell because they only talk about what can be seen in highlight videos or read on a stat line. Then, they are surprised EVERY TIME they actually do watch this team. How many talking heads have you heard this week say the Seahawks have not won in frisco since 08 as to why they are picking the whiners? They have also pointed out the huge yardage that Gore has gotten against a defense from 5 years ago.

This ain't the Mora or Tarvaris led Seahawks and Russell ain't a rookie anymore.

I just heard another guy pick the niners because of their TWO GAME winning streak...so funny.

 

[Polaris]

I have to disagree with you there. Seattle could lose this game and still control their fate in terms of HFA.

Except you keep San Fran in the game and playing for a Division title (at least in theory) even IF you beat the Giants the next week. It's far better and far more important to CLINCH Divisions and playoff spots when you can and as soon as you can.

What's more, San Fran doesn't lose anything if they lose other than an extreme long shot at the division title (which they don't control).

The 49ers are 8-4; the Cowboys, Cards and Eagles are 7-5. If the 49ers lose and the Cowboys, Cards and Eagles win (all very possible) there are then 4 teams at 8-5. We'll give one wildcard to either the Saints or Panthers and a divisonal spot to either the Boys or Eagles.

That puts the 49ers (Cards + NFCE #2) in a three-way race from a dead heat with 3 games remaining for one spot.

You aren't analyzing this very carefully. Detroit and the Eagles play this week and someone will lose. Not only that but the Eagles and Cowboys play at the end of the Season and somone will lose that. Not only that but if Detroit matches San Fran win for win, they'll win the NFC North and thus not compete for a wildcard spot. Likewise for any NFC East team to finish win for win with San Fran would invariably give them the NFC East title and thus not in competition.

As for 'Zona, San Fran gets to play them (and thus controls their playoff picture entirely) and 'Zona also has to play Seattle at home and Seattle would be extremely movitivated to win that game should Seattle lose vs San Fran.

So looking at this from Niner Eyes, the Division title is essentially gone anyway, and even if you win this Sunday, it's a longshot at very best and completely out of your control (other than winning out to give yourself even a chance), but a loss doesn't hurt you in the wildcard picture.

[As for the NFCS Teams NO and Carolina, one is an iron lock for the fifth seed and the other for the second seed, and both have tiebreaks against the Niners so they are not fighting for the same playoff spot that the Niners need.]

So given the playoff picture, Seattle NEEDS this game to CLINCH both the Division and the first round bye. San Fran isn't helped or hurt much either way (other than losing a longshot at the division). San Fran can't clinch and can't be eliminated.

 

[kobebryant]

I have to disagree with you there. Seattle could lose this game and still control their fate in terms of HFA.

Except you keep San Fran in the game and playing for a Division title (at least in theory) even IF you beat the Giants the next week. It's far better and far more important to CLINCH Divisions and playoff spots when you can and as soon as you can.

What's more, San Fran doesn't lose anything if they lose other than an extreme long shot at the division title (which they don't control).

The 49ers are 8-4; the Cowboys, Cards and Eagles are 7-5. If the 49ers lose and the Cowboys, Cards and Eagles win (all very possible) there are then 4 teams at 8-5. We'll give one wildcard to either the Saints or Panthers and a divisonal spot to either the Boys or Eagles.

That puts the 49ers (Cards + NFCE #2) in a three-way race from a dead heat with 3 games remaining for one spot.

You aren't analyzing this very carefully. Detroit and the Eagles play this week and someone will lose. Not only that but the Eagles and Cowboys play at the end of the Season and somone will lose that. Not only that but if Detroit matches San Fran win for win, they'll win the NFC North and thus not compete for a wildcard spot. Likewise for any NFC East team to finish win for win with San Fran would invariably give them the NFC East title and thus not in competition.

As for 'Zona, San Fran gets to play them (and thus controls their playoff picture entirely) and 'Zona also has to play Seattle at home and Seattle would be extremely movitivated to win that game should Seattle lose vs San Fran.

So looking at this from Niner Eyes, the Division title is essentially gone anyway, and even if you win this Sunday, it's a longshot at very best and completely out of your control (other than winning out to give yourself even a chance), but a loss doesn't hurt you in the wildcard picture.

[As for the NFCS Teams NO and Carolina, one is an iron lock for the fifth seed and the other for the second seed, and both have tiebreaks against the Niners so they are not fighting for the same playoff spot that the Niners need.]

So given the playoff picture, Seattle NEEDS this game to CLINCH both the Division and the first round bye. San Fran isn't helped or hurt much either way (other than losing a longshot at the division). San Fran can't clinch and can't be eliminated.

Trust me, I totally get where you are coming from on this one and we could theoretically debate this forever; as the "need to" in this context is entirely subjective.

(so don't take this wrong way, or as me being snarky, or looking down at you) but, the clearest way to put this is that Seattle is guaranteed to be playing postseason football and nothing can be done to change that; San Francisco is not guaranteed to be playing postseason football and they have to win football games in order to assure themselves of a playoff spot; and as we know in the NFL wins cannot be assumed or taken for granted.

 

[MidwestHawker]

I could have warned you all for quite a while that we were going to be dogs in this game. The betting market has rated SF very highly all year. I expected to be dogs by 1 or 2, but meh. It's a difficult game and we may lose. Thankfully we've built up enough of a cushion that if we do lose it won't be the end of the world. Hopefully it never comes to that though.

 

[Polaris]

(so don't take this wrong way, or as me being snarky, or looking down at you) but, the clearest way to put this is that Seattle is guaranteed to be playing postseason football and nothing can be done to change that; San Francisco is not guaranteed to be playing postseason football and they have to win football games in order to assure themselves of a playoff spot; and as we know in the NFL wins cannot be assumed or taken for granted.

I get what you are saying, but that is less true here than one might think. I guess what I am saying is that San Fran is virtually locked into the five or six seed (and likely the six seed). Going by Football Outsiders, the odds of them winning the division is about 2% but the odds of them making the playoffs is about 80%.

Basically if you look at the teams that could catch and displace the Niners, all of them play each other including Detroit playing the Eagles and the Cowboys playing the Bears in this week alone.....and remember that at least one of them will take the NFCN title and one other will take the NFCE title.

If San Fran gets even one more win (let alone the three they are virtually assured of), they become the prohibative favorite to clinch a playoff berth. In fact I wouldn't be at all suprised if San Fran doesn't clinch by week 16 even if (when) they lose to us.

 

[Polaris]

I could have warned you all for quite a while that we were going to be dogs in this game. The betting market has rated SF very highly all year. I expected to be dogs by 1 or 2, but meh. It's a difficult game and we may lose. Thankfully we've built up enough of a cushion that if we do lose it won't be the end of the world. Hopefully it never comes to that though.

You are clearly right. The Betting market clearly does rate San Fran very highly. What I don't get is why (at least to THIS degree). It's almost openly dissonant with the most recent eye tests of both teams.

 

[MidwestHawker]

I could have warned you all for quite a while that we were going to be dogs in this game. The betting market has rated SF very highly all year. I expected to be dogs by 1 or 2, but meh. It's a difficult game and we may lose. Thankfully we've built up enough of a cushion that if we do lose it won't be the end of the world. Hopefully it never comes to that though.

You are clearly right. The Betting market clearly does rate San Fran very highly. What I don't get is why (at least to THIS degree). It's almost openly dissonant with the most recent eye tests of both teams.

Well, because SF is legitimately good, unfortunately. SF is 8-3-1 against the spread this year, so they're not generally being given more love than they deserve by the market (or at least the short-term results don't bear it out that way).

 

[Polaris]

I could have warned you all for quite a while that we were going to be dogs in this game. The betting market has rated SF very highly all year. I expected to be dogs by 1 or 2, but meh. It's a difficult game and we may lose. Thankfully we've built up enough of a cushion that if we do lose it won't be the end of the world. Hopefully it never comes to that though.

You are clearly right. The Betting market clearly does rate San Fran very highly. What I don't get is why (at least to THIS degree). It's almost openly dissonant with the most recent eye tests of both teams.

Well, because SF is legitimately good, unfortunately. SF is 8-3-1 against the spread this year, so they're not generally being given more love than they deserve by the market (or at least the short-term results don't bear it out that way).

And Seattle is 8-4 ATS, and the eye test alone (let alone advanced metrics like DVOA) show that Seattle is clearly the better team. The casual better might not know about DVOA but surely the sharpies do.

 

[MidwestHawker]

Yeah I couldn't answer why we're being treated as dead even for purposes of this line, but I assume it's to do with the short week. That's the only thing I could see costing us a point or two on the spread.

 

[AbsolutNET]

I could have warned you all for quite a while that we were going to be dogs in this game. The betting market has rated SF very highly all year. I expected to be dogs by 1 or 2, but meh. It's a difficult game and we may lose. Thankfully we've built up enough of a cushion that if we do lose it won't be the end of the world. Hopefully it never comes to that though.

You are clearly right. The Betting market clearly does rate San Fran very highly. What I don't get is why (at least to THIS degree). It's almost openly dissonant with the most recent eye tests of both teams.

I think a lot of people here are underestimating the challenge this game presents the Hawks.

 

[Polaris]

I could have warned you all for quite a while that we were going to be dogs in this game. The betting market has rated SF very highly all year. I expected to be dogs by 1 or 2, but meh. It's a difficult game and we may lose. Thankfully we've built up enough of a cushion that if we do lose it won't be the end of the world. Hopefully it never comes to that though.

You are clearly right. The Betting market clearly does rate San Fran very highly. What I don't get is why (at least to THIS degree). It's almost openly dissonant with the most recent eye tests of both teams.

I think a lot of people here are underestimating the challenge this game presents the Hawks.

With respect I disagree. I for one know the Niners are good, and I know it's a short week, but since when has that mattered for this team? The eye test alone (let alone the advanced statistical metric) or even the more convenetial measures all show what all of us know: Seattle is better than San Fran.

What Vegas is saying is that Seattle vs San Fran would be 'pick em' on a neutral field. That's nonsense.

That doesn't mean that I don't think the Niners are good. I do.

 

[loafoftatupu]

I think the Seahawks are the best team in Football, period. That said, I also think that the Hawks are going to lose at least one game out of these last 4, maybe 2. They are 11-1 folks, it is very difficult to go 15-1 and frankly I think the Hawks could use a loss as a point of humility.

The Niners are a very, very good team. We have been fortunate to carry the intensity our team emits and parlay that into big wins. Heck, even in the Stick last year, the game was just a play here or there from going in the Seahawks direction. This game to me favors SF for many reasons and none of that is Crabtree's return. I figure him to be a non-factor. I could see some mistakes on offense giving the Niners a lot better shot at scoring, they are bound to happen and SF is just the team to make it happen. Very similar to us in many ways.

I have to say though, if somehow the Hawks pull this off down there, this is going to be quite a ride. Because if they beat SF in SF, there is very little and I mean nothing stopping them from going the distance.

 

[Polaris]

I think the Seahawks are the best team in Football, period. That said, I also think that the Hawks are going to lose at least one game out of these last 4, maybe 2. They are 11-1 folks, it is very difficult to go 15-1 and frankly I think the Hawks could use a loss as a point of humility.

The Niners are a very, very good team. We have been fortunate to carry the intensity our team emits and parlay that into big wins. Heck, even in the Stick last year, the game was just a play here or there from going in the Seahawks direction. This game to me favors SF for many reasons and none of that is Crabtree's return. I figure him to be a non-factor. I could see some mistakes on offense giving the Niners a lot better shot at scoring, they are bound to happen and SF is just the team to make it happen. Very similar to us in many ways.

I have to say though, if somehow the Hawks pull this off down there, this is going to be quite a ride. Because if they beat SF in SF, there is very little and I mean nothing stopping them from going the distance.

I think it's far more likely that the 'hawks lose one of our last two games when everything has already been decided. I'm not predicting it, but if a second loss were to come, I'd say that scenario is more likely.

 

[mikeak]

You aren't analyzing this very carefully. .

Most players aren't either and when the coaches try to motivate the players then it doesn't go "yeah I know eagles and detroit are playing and we have the SOS helping us out etc etc"

It goes - if we lose this game then Detroit / Eagles will have as many wins as us. We need to go out there and win this game and stay alive in the hunt for the division and solidify the playoff spot

That is going to be it for them

For those that complain -- the line was 3.5 but shifted .5 because of MNF domination

 

[Polaris]

You aren't analyzing this very carefully. .

Most players aren't either and when the coaches try to motivate the players then it doesn't go "yeah I know eagles and detroit are playing and we have the SOS helping us out etc etc"

It goes - if we lose this game then Detroit / Eagles will have as many wins as us. We need to go out there and win this game and stay alive in the hunt for the division and solidify the playoff spot

That is going to be it for them

For those that complain -- the line was 3.5 but shifted .5 because of MNF domination

Shouldn't have been 3.5 to start with and it should have shifted by a lot more than 0.5.

As for the rest, players tend to be pretty focused, and the players and teams of both sides have plenty of reason enough to be motiviated, this being a rivalry game and such, but the players aren't stupid or completely isolated. They might not go through all the tie breaks but two clicks can confirm (on the ESPN Playoff machine if nothing else) that San Fran can NOT be eliminated from the playoffs no matter what they do, and a simple look at the top line record confirms that the NFC West is at best a pipe dream for the Niners.

 

[TravTex]

 

[Hawks46]

A few things:

The Niners NEED this game more than us for one big reason: they have to prove to themselves and everyone else that we can only beat them at our house, and they can still beat us at all. If we go down there and curbstomp them, they will have major doubts if they can beat us going forward. It's a major blow to their confidence. Plus, losing badly might incur a stroke to Harbaugh.

I wish people would quit calling the Cardinals cream puffs. They've won what, 7 games ? They typically play the Niners very tough, and that last game is at AZ. If the Niners lose this game, then that last game is for the last Wildcard spot. The Niners don't want that to happen. The Cards are playing way better than they were when they lost to the Niners earlier. The Cardinals also have a fairly easy schedule outside of us and the Niners left.

People are picking the Niners to win because we haven't won there since 2008. That's a long time, and bettors tend to follow trends. 5 years is a hell of a trend.