What's With the Niner Love?

[mikeak]

Remember Vegas still has us as Super Bowl favorite with us and Denver at 2:1

 

[Polaris]

Part of that line is still based off public perception that the Seahawks are not a good road team. Most non-Seahawk fans believe this and betting lines are based off public perception.

True. Odds are obviously based on past stats, and the stats show that up until this year the Hawks were a poor road team.

But IMO the MAIN reason the Niners are favored is this game means more to them then us, plus stats show coming off Monday night games on short week against road division rivals is a tough matchup for the road team.

All this is well taken (although I could quibble with some of this), but per football outsiders, Seattle's DVOA is 40.7 (one of the best ever) and San Fran's is 16.7 which while still very good is not in the same zip code.

How does all that negate a 24 point DVOA difference.

 

[MOCHawk]

1. The Hawks can't win on the road (fallacy but that's still the perception even though we're 5-1) The 49'ers have lost 2x as many at home as we have lost on the road
2. We just came off a huge game and are vulnerable to an emotional let down. Based on what history?
3. We've pretty much clinched HFA already so the stakes aren't high so motivation could be a factor (it won't, it's the 49'ers) Magic Number = 4 for this...not exactly clinched
4. Short week just playing on Monday night. We could have beaten them Tuesday morning
5. 49'ers want revenge for the previous beat downs. Want in one hand...
6. 49'ers are playing for their playoff lives so motivation will be high. And they weren't motivated the last 2 times they played us?
7. The got an email reminding them how to be fans so now they know. (LOL) LOL
8. 49'ers have been playing better as of late and got Crabtree back, etc. Better is pretty relative...better than what?

Needless to say...I'll take the points and the 'hawks. Betting against this team right now against anyone outside of Denver at Denver is insanity.

 

[Mindsink]

Part of that line is still based off public perception that the Seahawks are not a good road team. Most non-Seahawk fans believe this and betting lines are based off public perception.

True. Odds are obviously based on past stats, and the stats show that up until this year the Hawks were a poor road team.

But IMO the MAIN reason the Niners are favored is this game means more to them then us, plus stats show coming off Monday night games on short week against road division rivals is a tough matchup for the road team.

All this is well taken (although I could quibble with some of this), but per football outsiders, Seattle's DVOA is 40.7 (one of the best ever) and San Fran's is 16.7 which while still very good is not in the same zip code.

How does all that negate a 24 point DVOA difference.

Because the vast majority of the betting public don't even know what DVOA is.

 

[Spokanefan]

I have never, ever bet on a sporting event of any kind, but odds favoring the 49ers are making me think about figuring out how to put some money on the Seahawks and make some $'s.

 

[Polaris]

Remember Vegas still has us as Super Bowl favorite with us and Denver at 2:1

Yeah, but that highlights my point. Vegas has Sea vs Den to be close to a 'pick'em' game (for the SB). Yet if Den were to go to San Fran, they'd be favored I promise you.

 

[Mindsink]

I have never, ever bet on a sporting event of any kind, but odds favoring the 49ers are making me think about figuring out how to put some money on the Seahawks and make some $'s.

As a long-time sports gambler, I would highly advise against that. :141847_bnono:

 

[Polaris]

I have never, ever bet on a sporting event of any kind, but odds favoring the 49ers are making me think about figuring out how to put some money on the Seahawks and make some $'s.

As a long-time sports gambler, I would highly advise against that. :141847_bnono:

While I agree with caution, in some cases there does seem to be genuine disconnect between reality and "Vegas CW" and this does seem to be such a case.

 

[jblaze]

1. The Hawks can't win on the road (fallacy but that's still the perception even though we're 5-1) The 49'ers have lost 2x as many at home as we have lost on the road Like I said, it's a fallacy but yet one that still persists, you're preaching to the choir.
2. We just came off a huge game and are vulnerable to an emotional let down. Based on what history? Based on human nature, not team history. It can't be quantified but players will tell you this is real.
3. We've pretty much clinched HFA already so the stakes aren't high so motivation could be a factor (it won't, it's the 49'ers) Magic Number = 4 for this...not exactly clinched We're up 2 games with the tiebreaker so basically 3. We win Sunday, we clinch the division and HFA. That's "pretty much" like I said.
4. Short week just playing on Monday night. We could have beaten them Tuesday morning Opinion and irrelevant. Teams struggle on short weeks, this is widely known.
5. 49'ers want revenge for the previous beat downs. Want in one hand... Motivation is a powerful thing and if you've played sports before, you know it to be true that previous experience can play into increased effort.
6. 49'ers are playing for their playoff lives so motivation will be high. And they weren't motivated the last 2 times they played us? People walk into the Clink and immediately get demotivated, it's part of our power. This is on their home turf where people are naturally more comfortable and confident.
7. The got an email reminding them how to be fans so now they know. (LOL) LOL Indeed.
8. 49'ers have been playing better as of late and got Crabtree back, etc. Better is pretty relative...better than what? Better than previous games which is comparative and widely known. Kap appears to actually be making some progression reads and the run game is always there as well as the defense. Crabtree and Manningham have a big effect on this, Kap actually has targets now.

Needless to say...I'll take the points and the 'hawks. Betting against this team right now against anyone outside of Denver at Denver is insanity.

 

[Polaris]

1. The Hawks can't win on the road (fallacy but that's still the perception even though we're 5-1) The 49'ers have lost 2x as many at home as we have lost on the road Like I said, it's a fallacy but yet one that still persists, you're preaching to the choir.
2. We just came off a huge game and are vulnerable to an emotional let down. Based on what history? Based on human nature, not team history. It can't be quantified but players will tell you this is real.
3. We've pretty much clinched HFA already so the stakes aren't high so motivation could be a factor (it won't, it's the 49'ers) Magic Number = 4 for this...not exactly clinched We're up 2 games with the tiebreaker so basically 3. We win Sunday, we clinch the division and HFA. That's "pretty much" like I said.
4. Short week just playing on Monday night. We could have beaten them Tuesday morning Opinion and irrelevant. Teams struggle on short weeks, this is widely known.
5. 49'ers want revenge for the previous beat downs. Want in one hand... Motivation is a powerful thing and if you've played sports before, you know it to be true that previous experience can play into increased effort.
6. 49'ers are playing for their playoff lives so motivation will be high. And they weren't motivated the last 2 times they played us? People walk into the Clink and immediately get demotivated, it's part of our power. This is on their home turf where people are naturally more comfortable and confident.
7. The got an email reminding them how to be fans so now they know. (LOL) LOL Indeed.
8. 49'ers have been playing better as of late and got Crabtree back, etc. Better is pretty relative...better than what? Better than previous games which is comparative and widely known. Kap appears to actually be making some progression reads and the run game is always there as well as the defense. Crabtree and Manningham have a big effect on this, Kap actually has targets now.

Needless to say...I'll take the points and the 'hawks. Betting against this team right now against anyone outside of Denver at Denver is insanity.

Point of Order: We can not clinch HFA this week. We beat San Fran and we clinch the Division and a first round bye. We can't because Carolina and NO play each other.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

There are many reasons for this:

1. The Hawks can't win on the road (fallacy but that's still the perception even though we're 5-1)

Betting odds take into consideration a much longer track record than the current year.

Not sure why some of you guys are so bent out of shape over this line, it's perfectly normal when two good teams play the home team will be favored by a small margin, especially within the division. Sure this is a very good Hawks team, but the fact remains our track record for winning in SF is not so good.........thus the line.

 

[Polaris]

There are many reasons for this:

1. The Hawks can't win on the road (fallacy but that's still the perception even though we're 5-1)

Betting odds take into consideration a much longer track record than the current year.

Not sure why some of you guys are so bent out of shape over this line, it's perfectly normal when two good teams play the home team will be favored by a small margin, especially within the division. Sure this is a very good Hawks team, but the fact remains our track record for winning in SF is not so good.........thus the line.

I think 'bent out of shape' is taking it a bit far, but it's still insulting. It's like catching your best friend in bed with your wife, and he has the audicity to say, "Who do you believe? Me or your lying eyes."

This Seattle team is very different and much better (esp on the road) since the last time we went to the 'stick.

 

[jblaze]

Ah, I thought I heard HFA if we win but it's just the #1 or #2, got it.

I'm not bent out of shape at all, just another opportunity to prove the bettors wrong. Also I think the line is 1.5 now or something, and that's low for a home team so we are getting some respect here IMO.

We will not be denied. Leave no doubt.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

This Seattle team is very different and much better (esp on the road) since the last time we went to the 'stick.

But betting lines use past history stats and numbers, not "wow this Hawks team is really good right now."

Past history says the Hawks stink in SF. If the Hawks go down this weekend and stomp the Niners, then next year you won't see that line. But until we prove the oddsmakers wrong, they have nothing to go by except past performances.

 

[plyka]

Our Seahawks just got done putting the BEAT DOWN on the Saints this last Monday. Seattle has never looked better. While San Fran did look better with Crabtree back, and Kaep did play better, they weren't tremendous (the Rams were in that game until Fischer went for it with 9 minutes to go keep in his own end...and it was a fourth and 8 ).

So what gives? It's not just Vegas, but a lot fo the talking heads seem to think that somehow the Niners are somehow beat the team that is better than they are. Don't they have EYES?

Vegas is about money not about who is better. The trick is they want to get even money on BOTH sides, and then take a slice out the middle. So they want ZERO risk with a 10% rake. If +3 for San Fran makes even money on both sides, that's the spread they will give.

Now this tends to predict far better than any talking head on TV, because this is the market place where people put money behind their convictions. It is also the general thought of the entire nation versus just 1 or 2 people. However, there are times when this is NOT efficient. If for instance a team is much better known and has more fans --they may get more action on their side from their fans. The 49ers are a team with a lot of history and a lot of fans around the country. This may have an effect, but in all honesty I doubt it. It may just be the circumstances --let's remember the Seahawks are coming off of a HUGE game on Monday night (a let down is natural), and this game is almost meaningless to them. While the 49ers need this just to stay in the playoff picture --they are desparate. Also, the Hawks have not won in San Fran since 2008.

In all honesty, I would take the Hawks and the 3 points, but I can see why 49ers are favored. They probably have a better than 50/50 chance of winning this game.

 

[WindCityHawk]

I was just thinking this same thing reading Elliot Harrison's predictions for this weekend (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... ts-rebound).

Harrison picks the 9ers citing a "letdown game" by Seattle and the fact that we have to face Crabtree "sans a couple of players" in our secondary. A) Has no one outside Seattle recognized that this team--and Wilson--are as emotionally stable as a boulder? They didn't give a damn about winning Monday night, that was not their Super Bowl. And B) Do the national writers not understand that those two DBs we lost are at the same position, and that we still have 3 Probowlers in 4 spots (to say nothing of the fact that Maxwell and Lane owned Drew Brees)?

At this point, either they just don't want to believe, or they're getting paid to stir the pot, because their assessments are just ridiculous.

 

[Polaris]

Point of correction everyone. The Niners do NOT need this game to stay in the playoff picture. In fact this game is almost meaningless for the Niners. Why? Right now the Niners are 8-4. Seattle is the only hard game on their schedule and the Niners have proven they can routinely stomp lesser teams and Atlanta, TB, and yes 'zona are lesser teams. That makes them nearly an iron lock to finish the season 11-5.

That means that NO ONE in the NFC East or NFC North will compete with the Niners for a playoff spot, the two teams that could in the NFC South will have their own playoff spots, and the only team in the NFC West (Arizona) that could will likely fade down the stretch (and if not the Niners will likely beat them anyway).

On the other hand even if the Niners were to win this Sunday (which I do not think they will), Seattle would still be the overwhelming favorite to win the Division and HFA anyway and both would still be completely out of the control of the Niners. All Seattle would have to do in that case is win two of @Giants (who will be out of the playoff picture by then), and Arizona at home (which will probably seal a playoff spot for the Niners), and St Louis at home.

Thus for the Niners, in terms of playoffs, this game is nearly meaningless. However for the 'hawks, we could win both the division and the first round bye immediately. That means a lot esp down the stretch.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Point of correction everyone. The Niners do NOT need this game to stay in the playoff picture. In fact this game is almost meaningless for the Niners. Why? Right now the Niners are 8-4. Seattle is the only hard game on their schedule and the Niners have proven they can routinely stomp lesser teams and Atlanta, TB, and yes 'zona are lesser teams. That makes them nearly an iron lock to finish the season 11-5.

That means that NO ONE in the NFC East or NFC North will compete with the Niners for a playoff spot, the two teams that could in the NFC South will have their own playoff spots, and the only team in the NFC West (Arizona) that could will likely fade down the stretch (and if not the Niners will likely beat them anyway).

On the other hand even if the Niners were to win this Sunday (which I do not think they will), Seattle would still be the overwhelming favorite to win the Division and HFA anyway and both would still be completely out of the control of the Niners. All Seattle would have to do in that case is win two of @Giants (who will be out of the playoff picture by then), and Arizona at home (which will probably seal a playoff spot for the Niners), and St Louis at home.

Thus for the Niners, in terms of playoffs, this game is nearly meaningless. However for the 'hawks, we could win both the division and the first round bye immediately. That means a lot esp down the stretch.

Huh? How can you say this game's meaningless for the Niners?

1. They still have a chance to win the division if they win.
2. They can assure themselves a playoff spot with a win.
3. Intangibles: If they win they keep their momentum AND gain a ton of confidence towards thinking they can beat the Hawks come playoff time.

If they lose they're back to fighting with the Saints, Panthers, Cowboys, Eagles, Cards and even Bears for the two wildcard seeds. Don't fool yourself, this game means EVERYTHING to the Niners.

 

[mikeak]

Remember Vegas still has us as Super Bowl favorite with us and Denver at 2:1

Yeah, but that highlights my point. Vegas has Sea vs Den to be close to a 'pick'em' game (for the SB). Yet if Den were to go to San Fran, they'd be favored I promise you.

Not if Denver cleared KC by a few games and came off a HUGE Monday night beat down of a key opponent.

Then add to this that it is while not a must win it is a really need to win for the 49ers. They are not secure in that WC spot. They simply have more to play for than the Hawks do

 

[onanygivensunday]

1-0 every week.

All of the rest of the "reasons" the game will go one way or the other don't matter to this team.

1-0 every week.