TwistedHusky
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- Jan 8, 2013
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Who should we have gotten at QB? Not sure any of them. We probably still have to draft one even so.
I don't know enough to evaluate the QBs. If you look at the #s you end to get a group of exceptional QBs every 3-4 years. The NFL just had one. Certainly it COULD happen again, but it is unlikely like flipping Heads 5x in a row. Possible, but unlikely. The QBs in the other years tend to look OK but get overvalued. Remember Baker Mayfield was a #1 pick.
Was a top Qb in this draft? No idea. Back when we did models on this the best indicator was # of times the QB came from behind in the 4th quarter when playing against ranked teams. What are those #s and what was the success rate per drive for that criteria? Not perfect but I would trust that more than any.
The best fit for how Pete likes to play was probably Malik but Malik came with all those weaknesses people said Wilson had, and really was just a great deep ball and run threat. Nowhere near as effective under pressure (though nobody is)
So we didn't get a QB. I think the reward is so high you probably need to draft a QB in every draft until you get one...even if you have one, because if you get a top QB you are set for 10+ years but likely will take from 3 to as many as 7 years to succeed using that strategy.
More important I didn't see the high upside guys that turn into stars for us. Not saying it isn't possible, but this looked like a nuts and bolts draft, not an upside one. No shooting for stars or home runs here.
I don't know enough to evaluate the QBs. If you look at the #s you end to get a group of exceptional QBs every 3-4 years. The NFL just had one. Certainly it COULD happen again, but it is unlikely like flipping Heads 5x in a row. Possible, but unlikely. The QBs in the other years tend to look OK but get overvalued. Remember Baker Mayfield was a #1 pick.
Was a top Qb in this draft? No idea. Back when we did models on this the best indicator was # of times the QB came from behind in the 4th quarter when playing against ranked teams. What are those #s and what was the success rate per drive for that criteria? Not perfect but I would trust that more than any.
The best fit for how Pete likes to play was probably Malik but Malik came with all those weaknesses people said Wilson had, and really was just a great deep ball and run threat. Nowhere near as effective under pressure (though nobody is)
So we didn't get a QB. I think the reward is so high you probably need to draft a QB in every draft until you get one...even if you have one, because if you get a top QB you are set for 10+ years but likely will take from 3 to as many as 7 years to succeed using that strategy.
More important I didn't see the high upside guys that turn into stars for us. Not saying it isn't possible, but this looked like a nuts and bolts draft, not an upside one. No shooting for stars or home runs here.