The Athletic's Dugar Projects 8.2 Wins

[Maelstrom787]

Dugar is going with the Vegas odds not really sticking his neck out. I am going with 10 wins, they had 9 wins with the worst DC in the league and now with a better all around coaching staff

I really hate to say this. Believe me, I do...

But we don't know just yet about the coaching staff being better...

They're just so new. Mac, Aden Durde, first time NFL playcaller in Grubb... so much unknown there.

 

[knownone]

Fair or unfair, anything less than nine wins would be a failure. The roster is significantly better, and the schedule is easier. The front office sold us on the idea that the coaching staff was holding a talented team back. They moved on from Pete because the team underperformed last season (John's words). You can't blame underperforming on inexperience when you're the one who hired the staff.

That said, most of these over/under projections are based on public perception.

 

[themunn]

This is a solid projection for a team coming off of 2 consecutive 9 win seasons that has a very inexperienced new staff.

Is it? To me it sounds lazy - yes he inherited a roster, but we've brought in a coaching staff with renowned defensive pedigree which should fix the area of that team that was by far the worst, cut/released/didn't resign a number of highly paid players whose production didn't quite stack up to expectations, its widely believed that we drafted well etc.

Aside from *arguably* the loss of Brooks and Wagner weakening our linebackers (remains to be seen, I believe Dodson is going to represent a huge upgrade vs our LBer group of last 2-3 seasons), I don't feel like we lost any major contributors to the team that weaken us, and so we should begin from a position of strength.

It's an inexperienced coaching staff and that's the biggest unknown, but also the great thing about cutting ties with Pete when we did, is that everything happened in a position of relative strength, a lot of Pete's winning philosophys and mood through the team will help the transition I imagine

 

[RiverDog]

That said, most of these over/under projections are based on public perception.

Sort of. They're based on betting activity, or rather anticipated betting activity. The bookies' objective is to even up the number of bets on over vs. under to keep the payout for either outcome roughly equal.

But your point is valid in that they are not based on any kind of objective football analysis.

 

[Hawkinaz]

I really hate to say this. Believe me, I do...

But we don't know just yet about the coaching staff being better...

They're just so new. Mac, Aden Durde, first time NFL playcaller in Grubb... so much unknown there.

I am thinking mostly with the coordinators anything competent would be an improvement. IMO Carroll last year was just going through the motions, the DC didnt know what he was doing, the OC was too predictable

 

[94Smith]

Vegas has the over/under for us at 7.5, and I were to bet, I'd take over.

If you look at our schedule, we have a lot of very winnable games: DEN, NE, NYJ, NYG, ATL, Minny, Cards x2, Rams x2. Plus, we've played the Lions tough the past two seasons, beating them twice. IMO a 9-8 record is a very reasonable expectation.

Not sure about placing NYJ in very winnable game plus the Rams. I don’t know if the 49ers will beat the Jets next week and would be happy with a split from the rams

 

[Maelstrom787]

Is it? To me it sounds lazy - yes he inherited a roster, but we've brought in a coaching staff with renowned defensive pedigree which should fix the area of that team that was by far the worst, cut/released/didn't resign a number of highly paid players whose production didn't quite stack up to expectations, its widely believed that we drafted well etc.

Aside from *arguably* the loss of Brooks and Wagner weakening our linebackers (remains to be seen, I believe Dodson is going to represent a huge upgrade vs our LBer group of last 2-3 seasons), I don't feel like we lost any major contributors to the team that weaken us, and so we should begin from a position of strength.

It's an inexperienced coaching staff and that's the biggest unknown, but also the great thing about cutting ties with Pete when we did, is that everything happened in a position of relative strength, a lot of Pete's winning philosophys and mood through the team will help the transition I imagine

Well, the 8.2 wasn't a writers opinion, it was their model and the writer was providing commentary on it.

But 8 wins is generous for a team with coaches who are NFL first timers at their spots. Great coordinators don't always make the jump to HC well, and growing pains are absolutely a realistic thing to expect for guys who are learning their jobs on the fly.

The roster is what it is. On paper, it's promising, but there are question marks - and additionally, returning players are question marks because they're all going to be playing in new schemes with new designs, new terminology, etc.

Projecting a winning record would be fairly generous given the facts of the situation. We have reason to be optimistic, but outside observers really don't, especially in year 1. It's easy for us to expect a new staff to cure all of our ills, but leaguewide this is not the most common outcome for a team led almost entirely by guys doing their current jobs for the first time.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Well, the 8.2 wasn't a writers opinion, it was their model and the writer was providing commentary on it.

But 8 wins is generous for a team with coaches who are NFL first timers at their spots. Great coordinators don't always make the jump to HC well, and growing pains are absolutely a realistic thing to expect for guys who are learning their jobs on the fly.

The roster is what it is. On paper, it's promising, but there are question marks - and additionally, returning players are question marks because they're all going to be playing in new schemes with new designs, new terminology, etc.

Projecting a winning record would be fairly generous given the facts of the situation. We have reason to be optimistic, but outside observers really don't, especially in year 1. It's easy for us to expect a new staff to cure all of our ills, but leaguewide this is not the most common outcome for a team led almost entirely by guys doing their current jobs for the first time.

Yeah, agree with most of this (which is why I said it's a realistic projection), but I still reject it for a few reasons.

One, even with a new OC, we have so many of the players from our offense the previous year that if Grubb's concepts struggle a bit, we can always fall back on a simplified playbook that our guys were able to use well last year. We got better on offense even though our offensive line never did by simply relying on Geno to make quicker reads and throws and our receivers were good enough to turn that into gains. If Grubb does nothing but make our OL 15% less trash, whatever else he does is icing on the cake.

Two, for Macdonald, I think we've made the moves on our coaching staff (specifically bringing on Frazier to be Assistant Head Coach) were done in a way to provide Macdonald with the smoothest possible transition into the head coach role. In game, he's still going to be calling the defense so he'll be falling back on that coordinator experience as he gets used to being a head coach.

Three, both our near first-string offense and defense looked pretty darn good in the limited look we got during preseason. Preseason results/performance always have to be taken with a grain of salt but nothing about our preseason came across like a team that was still trying to find its identity or a coaching staff struggling to manage a team. The process here looked good.

Finally--though definitely not least importantly--our overall schedule projects to be easier than last year's. We had one of the toughest schedules in the league, still managed to get a winning record, and were just this shy of getting to the playoffs. Difficulty of schedule is very underrated in terms of overall effects on a team each year, so things project to line up well for us on that front. (Based on how those teams looked last year, anyway).

 

[Ozzy]

This is a solid projection for a team coming off of 2 consecutive 9 win seasons that has a very inexperienced new staff.

I’d argue the division continues to get better too. I expect the Rams to be better and the Cardinals to be better. It’s just a loaded division.

 

[RiverDog]

Not sure about placing NYJ in very winnable game plus the Rams. I don’t know if the 49ers will beat the Jets next week and would be happy with a split from the rams

First off, they are the Jets, so I shouldn't have to justify my expectations any further. They were 7-10 last season. I'm skeptical of a 40 year old QB coming off a major Achilles injury.

Secondly, if you guys can't beat the Jets at home, you're in trouble.

As far as the Rams goes, I'd settle with a split, too. Same with the Cards.

 

[94Smith]

First off, they are the Jets, so I shouldn't have to justify my expectations any further. They were 7-10 last season. I'm skeptical of a 40 year old QB coming off a major Achilles injury.

Secondly, if you guys can't beat the Jets at home, you're in trouble.

As far as the Rams goes, I'd settle with a split, too. Same with the Cards.

I think the Jets will win the AFC east this year. They had a top 3 defense last year. Much better than you think

 

[DarkVictory23]

I think the Jets will win the AFC east this year. They had a top 3 defense last year. Much better than you think

It's very rare for a team with a defense as good as what the Jets had to miss the playoffs, let alone have a losing record. The Jets managed to pull that off two seasons in a row.

Is there a chance that Aaron Rodgers comes back from not only a major injury--but bounce back from a bad season the previous year--and proves to be their savior? Sure, but I have my doubts.

Plus, I'll be there in person so it's basically a guaranteed victory for the 'Hawks.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I’d argue the division continues to get better too. I expect the Rams to be better and the Cardinals to be better. It’s just a loaded division.

Yeah, the Cardinals started looking a lot better near the end of 2023 IIRC, and they've got a lot of young draftees. I don't think they get into SB contention in the next 3 years but they're not going to be an automatic win.

Rams are perennially tough but, despite losing Donald, they did fill out their DL a bit and look to continue being as dangerous as ever on offense.

Between 8 and 9 wins projected in this division for a bunch of first-timers replacing a coach who had a famously high floor in terms of season record... it's a pretty fair number to me. Doesn't mean I don't hope they can beat that projection or think they're talented enough to beat it, though.

 

[RiverDog]

Is there a chance that Aaron Rodgers comes back from not only a major injury--but bounce back from a bad season the previous year--and proves to be their savior? Sure, but I have my doubts.

That's why I don't think that the Jets are going anywhere. Oddly enough, when Rodgers was at his best, he made a lot of plays with his feet, and coming off a major injury like an Achillies...which if you've ever injured one like I have is extremely painful...there's a good chance that he'll have a psychological hurdle to overcome, that he'll be throwing balls away instead of moving around in the pocket.

I don't see them challenging either the Bills or the Fins, a .500 team at best.

 

[knownone]

Well, the 8.2 wasn't a writers opinion, it was their model and the writer was providing commentary on it.

But 8 wins is generous for a team with coaches who are NFL first timers at their spots. Great coordinators don't always make the jump to HC well, and growing pains are absolutely a realistic thing to expect for guys who are learning their jobs on the fly.

The roster is what it is. On paper, it's promising, but there are question marks - and additionally, returning players are question marks because they're all going to be playing in new schemes with new designs, new terminology, etc.

Projecting a winning record would be fairly generous given the facts of the situation. We have reason to be optimistic, but outside observers really don't, especially in year 1. It's easy for us to expect a new staff to cure all of our ills, but leaguewide this is not the most common outcome for a team led almost entirely by guys doing their current jobs for the first time.

How is projecting a winning record for a team coming off back-to-back winning seasons generous? Most projections are based on historical performances—primarily last season. And most of these models do not factor in coaching changes.

Similarly, there's no league-wide evidence that teams underperform with new head coaches. In fact, the opposite appears to be true (1). I know this is just a projection, but an inexperienced staff is not an excuse. Ownership and the front office signed off on those hires. And changes were made because the prior staff was (in their words) underperforming with the current roster.

From 1979–2017 (the years in my study), teams that replace their head coach improve their record 63% of the time in the first year with their new head coach.

1: https://jaydpauley.medium.com/new-head-coaches-improve-their-teams-record-63-of-the-time-and-on-average-improve-their-record-7793322c0591

 

[DarkVictory23]

How is projecting a winning record for a team coming off back-to-back winning seasons generous? Most projections are based on historical performances—primarily last season. And most of these models do not factor in coaching changes.

Similarly, there's no league-wide evidence that teams underperform with new head coaches. In fact, the opposite appears to be true (1). I know this is just a projection, but an inexperienced staff is not an excuse. Ownership and the front office signed off on those hires. And changes were made because the prior staff was (in their words) underperforming with the current roster.



1: https://jaydpauley.medium.com/new-head-coaches-improve-their-teams-record-63-of-the-time-and-on-average-improve-their-record-7793322c0591

This is actually good to know. I feel like I'm even less of a homer now for thinking we'll have a better record next year.

Thanks for the link.

 

[hawks85]

I'm sick and tired of this. Put the entire Seahawks coaching staff on KC, GB, SF etc...and the prediction would be Super Bowl with 15 wins. I'm not saying this will be Seattle, but I don't see us winning 8 or 9 games. This team WILL win at least 12 games. People are sleeping on this team because of the coaching staff and it's BS.

 

[Screaming Judy]

I’d be pissed is we lost 8.8 games this year…

 

[Ozzy]

How is projecting a winning record for a team coming off back-to-back winning seasons generous? Most projections are based on historical performances—primarily last season. And most of these models do not factor in coaching changes.

Similarly, there's no league-wide evidence that teams underperform with new head coaches. In fact, the opposite appears to be true (1). I know this is just a projection, but an inexperienced staff is not an excuse. Ownership and the front office signed off on those hires. And changes were made because the prior staff was (in their words) underperforming with the current roster.



1: https://jaydpauley.medium.com/new-head-coaches-improve-their-teams-record-63-of-the-time-and-on-average-improve-their-record-7793322c0591

They also factor in the future. Kyler Murray is healthy, the rams get a healthy Kupp and stafford, Niners are always loaded etc. I think it’s fair. I don’t think it was a lock we win 10 games with Pete or with the new staff this year. I just think the NFW West was trending up and might be the best division in football. Tough to win 10 games in this division.

 

[jammerhawk]

New coach, so they’ll regress from last season? Whatever???

Are these guys paying attention?

Are we just drinking the Kool - Aid?

Just not buying what they’re selling. 8.2 Ws, this is a serious?

Stongly of the belief the record will be 11-6. The D will be solid and special, the O will be steady and at times explosive. The team will make and then advance in the playoffs