Russell Wilson #11 on NFL Top 100 of 2018

[TwistedHusky]

I am not sure what you are talking about or the direction some you are veering.

I am the one that brought it up. But I was pretty clear it was only a massive issue last year.

However, that quote was from an NFL scout - not me. So let's not pretend it wasn't an issue.

That said, Wilson always had an issue with slow starts, just as he has an issue with consistency.

So a lot changed, but if we see that same thing again next year? That would be a problem. Let us hope that Bevell leaving leaves that weird diversion behind too.

But last year, the difference between 1st half Russ and 2nd half Russ was enormous. And it was a problem.

 

[Seymour]

This whole first half, second half thing is pretty ridiculous. (qb rating)

In 2016 he was 94.4 1st half, 89.6 2nd half pretty consistent and he was hurt most of the year
in 2015 he was 108.3 1st half, 112.6 2bd half again pretty consistent
in 2014 he was 93.6 1st half, 96.8 2nd half again consistent


So basically in the last 4 season the only season he was "inconsistent" was last year, and there were a plethora of reasons for it. In fact, the "issue" only existed last year. So out of 6 years, it happened once. This shows an anomaly not a pattern with regards to this issue. The pattern is consistent play. Does make one wonder what is the motivation for this pushing this though.

Where did you get those numbers? I just posted 2015 above right off NFL.com and they are not the same.

 

[erik2690]

That said, Wilson always had an issue with slow starts, just as he has an issue with consistency.

But you haven't backed that assertion up with any facts. A bunch of people just posted his 1st/2nd half splits from several years. So maybe you need to be more specific on what "start" means. Is it 1st Q? B/c again you say this with conviction but don't post the evidence and what people have posted kind of doesn't fit your statement that well. Part of the issue with 1st Q is that it's by far the Q he gets the fewest attempts in. That said his splits still have him at a 91 passer rating, 7.0 YPA and 64.5 comp%. The stat that works toward your argument is that his TD % is lower in Q1 but based on a lot of his other splits being similar I have to think some of that is play calling and just variance. It's not a crazy differential and his INT% is also way down in Q1 so it might be a lack of risk taking in general that leads to that. I mean the splits are clear that Q1 and Q3 are his worst, but not to such a degree that you can just state he's starting slow as a fact without other references. I think maybe the biggest mistake is making lack of scoring in Q1 a direct equivalent of saying Wilson is starting slow. Those things can be very related and tied together w/o being the same.

 

[hawknation2018]

That said, Wilson always had an issue with slow starts, just as he has an issue with consistency.

But you haven't backed that assertion up with any facts. A bunch of people just posted his 1st/2nd half splits from several years. So maybe you need to be more specific on what "start" means. Is it 1st Q? B/c again you say this with conviction but don't post the evidence and what people have posted kind of doesn't fit your statement that well. Part of the issue with 1st Q is that it's by far the Q he gets the fewest attempts in. That said his splits still have him at a 91 passer rating, 7.0 YPA and 64.5 comp%. The stat that works toward your argument is that his TD % is lower in Q1 but based on a lot of his other splits being similar I have to think some of that is play calling and just variance. It's not a crazy differential and his INT% is also way down in Q1 so it might be a lack of risk taking in general that leads to that. I mean the splits are clear that Q1 and Q3 are his worst, but not to such a degree that you can just state he's starting slow as a fact without other references. I think maybe the biggest mistake is making lack of scoring in Q1 a direct equivalent of saying Wilson is starting slow. Those things can be very related and tied together w/o being the same.

Very good points. Please post more often and use paragraphs to make it easier for others to read.

Russell was also working with Bevell’s “script” in the first quarter, and he won’t any longer.

 

[Hawk1217]

This whole first half, second half thing is pretty ridiculous. (qb rating)

In 2016 he was 94.4 1st half, 89.6 2nd half pretty consistent and he was hurt most of the year
in 2015 he was 108.3 1st half, 112.6 2bd half again pretty consistent
in 2014 he was 93.6 1st half, 96.8 2nd half again consistent


So basically in the last 4 season the only season he was "inconsistent" was last year, and there were a plethora of reasons for it. In fact, the "issue" only existed last year. So out of 6 years, it happened once. This shows an anomaly not a pattern with regards to this issue. The pattern is consistent play. Does make one wonder what is the motivation for this pushing this though.

Where did you get those numbers? I just posted 2015 above right off NFL.com and they are not the same.

ESPN and your right they are not the same HMM oh well, either way, it makes the same point.

BY the way was it just me or was it a little hard to find on NFL.com

 

[Hawk1217]

That said, Wilson always had an issue with slow starts, just as he has an issue with consistency.

But you haven't backed that assertion up with any facts. A bunch of people just posted his 1st/2nd half splits from several years. So maybe you need to be more specific on what "start" means. Is it 1st Q? B/c again you say this with conviction but don't post the evidence and what people have posted kind of doesn't fit your statement that well. Part of the issue with 1st Q is that it's by far the Q he gets the fewest attempts in. That said his splits still have him at a 91 passer rating, 7.0 YPA and 64.5 comp%. The stat that works toward your argument is that his TD % is lower in Q1 but based on a lot of his other splits being similar I have to think some of that is play calling and just variance. It's not a crazy differential and his INT% is also way down in Q1 so it might be a lack of risk taking in general that leads to that. I mean the splits are clear that Q1 and Q3 are his worst, but not to such a degree that you can just state he's starting slow as a fact without other references. I think maybe the biggest mistake is making lack of scoring in Q1 a direct equivalent of saying Wilson is starting slow. Those things can be very related and tied together w/o being the same.

Very good points. Please post more often and use paragraphs to make it easier for others to read.

Russell was also working with Bevell’s “script” in the first quarter, and he won’t any longer.

Therein lies what I believe is the biggest issue with starts the scripted plays.

 

[chris98251]

That said, Wilson always had an issue with slow starts, just as he has an issue with consistency.

But you haven't backed that assertion up with any facts. A bunch of people just posted his 1st/2nd half splits from several years. So maybe you need to be more specific on what "start" means. Is it 1st Q? B/c again you say this with conviction but don't post the evidence and what people have posted kind of doesn't fit your statement that well. Part of the issue with 1st Q is that it's by far the Q he gets the fewest attempts in. That said his splits still have him at a 91 passer rating, 7.0 YPA and 64.5 comp%. The stat that works toward your argument is that his TD % is lower in Q1 but based on a lot of his other splits being similar I have to think some of that is play calling and just variance. It's not a crazy differential and his INT% is also way down in Q1 so it might be a lack of risk taking in general that leads to that. I mean the splits are clear that Q1 and Q3 are his worst, but not to such a degree that you can just state he's starting slow as a fact without other references. I think maybe the biggest mistake is making lack of scoring in Q1 a direct equivalent of saying Wilson is starting slow. Those things can be very related and tied together w/o being the same.

Very good points. Please post more often and use paragraphs to make it easier for others to read.

Russell was also working with Bevell’s “script” in the first quarter, and he won’t any longer.

Therein lies what I believe is the biggest issue with starts the scripted plays.

Bevell would use the script sheet well into the second quarter regardless of seeing things that worked and then never went back to them because we didn't have a lead, he baffeled me on how he chose to not make them stop anything that did work in the first half. One thing that I liked about Holmgren he would have a script but if he found a weakness he would start explotining it till they stopped it if they could.

 

[IndyHawk]

It is mainly the first quarter and early second quarter that I believe he
has issues with.
The numbers look better because late in the second quarter is where he
plays in hurry up and gets a big boost in his stats.
He also gets the same boost late in the fourth quarter as well..
He is "Hero ball" at it's finest..You can't take that from him.

 

[Hawk1217]

But you haven't backed that assertion up with any facts. A bunch of people just posted his 1st/2nd half splits from several years. So maybe you need to be more specific on what "start" means. Is it 1st Q? B/c again you say this with conviction but don't post the evidence and what people have posted kind of doesn't fit your statement that well. Part of the issue with 1st Q is that it's by far the Q he gets the fewest attempts in. That said his splits still have him at a 91 passer rating, 7.0 YPA and 64.5 comp%. The stat that works toward your argument is that his TD % is lower in Q1 but based on a lot of his other splits being similar I have to think some of that is play calling and just variance. It's not a crazy differential and his INT% is also way down in Q1 so it might be a lack of risk taking in general that leads to that. I mean the splits are clear that Q1 and Q3 are his worst, but not to such a degree that you can just state he's starting slow as a fact without other references. I think maybe the biggest mistake is making lack of scoring in Q1 a direct equivalent of saying Wilson is starting slow. Those things can be very related and tied together w/o being the same.

Very good points. Please post more often and use paragraphs to make it easier for others to read.

Russell was also working with Bevell’s “script” in the first quarter, and he won’t any longer.

Therein lies what I believe is the biggest issue with starts the scripted plays.

Bevell would use the script sheet well into the second quarter regardless of seeing things that worked and then never went back to them because we didn't have a lead, he baffeled me on how he chose to not make them stop anything that did work in the first half. One thing that I liked about Holmgren he would have a script but if he found a weakness he would start explotining it till they stopped it if they could.

Agreed on all counts. Never understood Bevel, loved Holmgren. I also never understood when it was obvious we moved the ball and scored at will in the uptempo, we would only use it when we had to. The few games we used it from start to finish we were great. Not sure if that was Bevel or Pete.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Ridiculous conservative play calling in the first half, for a long while now. It needs to stop.

 

[Hawk1217]

Ridiculous conservative play calling in the first half, for a long while now. It needs to stop.

agreed but not sure it will, however, we will know if it is Pete or not. My fear is they go out to establish the run at all cost, including the game.

 

[Ad Hawk]

I'm going to guess here about the conservative play-calling because of the consistent observations: 1) conservative and nonproductive 1st halves of games, 2) emphasis on Defense, 3) number of close games, 4) number of 4th quarter wins or come-from-behind wins, 5) consistency of this formula though many fans are screaming for a change, 6) RW's fantastic 2nd half QB rating:

1. This is Pete's methodology, and I doubt it will change, even with new OC/Line coaches

2. I would guess that there are statistics showing how non-conservative calls lead to turnovers, especially early in games when an offense could be "baited" into bad plays. RW is told to throw it away early rather than go for the big play. This may also get the QB warmed up before throwing the long ball or into tight windows with accuracy.

3. Pete wants to line up in certain looks to ascertain how it will be countered by a defense, then run something simple and relatively risk-free, even at the risk of not completing or getting a 1st down. This explains the scripted plays.

4. Late in the game ("You can only win in the 4th quarter" mentality), Pete will line up with counters to the early defensive fronts, who are now confident they can stop Pete's offense. RW's fantastic 2nd half/4th quarter numbers suggest this is true, rather than just saying "RW is cold in the 1st half."

5. Having a good defense keeps the game slow and close until the 4th quarter when the offense exploits the known weaknesses.

PC has found a philosophy he thinks wins, and he'll continue to use it until it's proven to not give winning seasons. To this point, he appears more correct than false, even if the football on the field isn't as interesting as fans demand. It also doesn't put RW in the same position as other QBs. He is reigned in by the system, even though we know he can make the throws when asked.