Rumor: RW asking to be the highest paid player in history

[Anthony!]

I'm not taking a side in this, but I had a rather vivid dream last night where I was an assistant working with Pete and John trying to deal with the Wilson issue. I think it was just my brain's way of internally debating. Anyway, I thought I'd share.

In my dream, Carroll and John were taking a hard-line stance with Wilson, offering him something like 110 million over 5 years. Wilson wanted more. The reason for the hard-line approach was summed up by Carroll with one chilling word: Ceiling.

They believed that Wilson had reached the ceiling of his performance potential, and that his belief he could extend plays at will was creating an ego that was not in line with reality. They believed his performance would drop off until he learned to trust his receivers more and not try to do everything himself.

On the other hand, Wilson believed he would only get better at scrambling around working his Wilson magic, and he wanted money that would reflect where he would be when he reached that higher pinnacle.

It was an impasse, but I was assured by Carroll that he had dealt with departures of critical players at the college level, had done so on his defense at the pro level, and could do so again at the QB position if required. For some reason the backup plan should they not be able to sign Wilson was to trade him to KC for Alex Smith, who at least knew his role as a game manager. And in reality, I would see KC jumping all over that deal, as Andy Reid loved what Vick brought to the table even though Vick was an inferior passer.

Now, I am not saying I believe any of this in my waking state, but that's the dream I had, and it did make me think about all of those issues.

Yeah I would not believe any of that either, since it is PC who is not allowing Wilson to throw into tight windows, PC has stated he doe snot want TOs, and as drilled that into Wilson so that is all on PC.

 

[Anthony!]

If RW's frame of mind is anything close to what Softy said, it's all the more reason for him to play out his contract. Could backfire if he gets a season-ending injury. Not trying to jinx him, but I think that should always be a in a player's thought process. Strike when the iron is hot.

Playing out his contract is stupid on RW's part. Any contract signed this year will have a significant signing bonus, so even though his cap hit will be smaller, he'd get that cash NOW. If he waits a year he's not going to recoup that cash in the future.

I expect this to get done Late MAY, early JUNE.

If you believe the numbers thrown around his singing bonus would be 11 mil very very low for a Franchise QB

 

[Anthony!]

I expect this to get done Late MAY, early JUNE.

Soooo....what's the hold up? John and Pete want a signed long term contract. Russell wants it taken care of and out of the way, right? So, what's the hold up? It is his agent and his XXX lawyers, that's who! Someone needs to kick 'em in the nuts!

If what we are being told is right, last I checked 4 years is not a long term deal. Your assumption it is the agent/lawyers could be wrong, the hold up could be Wilson, could be the FO, we really do not know, However if you believe what has been written it is the FOs low ball offer.

 

[Happy]

NFL players talk a lot about contracts in terms of respect. They perceive these contracts as signs of respect and they ask teams to put their money where their mouth is.

I like this.

That logic certainly applies in my world. Kudos are great and all, but real respect shows up in my bank account on Friday morning. Having sunshine blown up my ass doesn't move the needle one little bit. Why would I expect a football player to think differently? Especially given the occupational hazards they face.

It'll be interesting to see the deal, for sure I'm curious just like everyone else.

 

[mikeak]

Would you rather make 10 million now and 20 million next year? Or 1.5 million now, and 20 million next year? Don't you see your missing out in cashing in NOW, you won't make that money back simply because this year is the exception.

You are missing my point. The Seahawks is not and will not offer a new contract. They are offering an extension. The signing bonus will be the same - it is a matter of getting the $10 million now or getting it next year. The total amount is the same

I think the point is if Russell's career has a finite ending year, and it will.............then it stands to reason by playing out his rookie contract this year would result in one less year of making 20M+.

He's only going to play for however long he's going to play, so that means one less year of making big money.

Same point - they will give him an extension and make him play out this contract.

Regardless if I am wrong then the difference is not the signing bonus. Then the argument is about pure salary for this year.

There isn't $20 million for salary this year. Getting the signing bonus this year or next year will not change the amount of it the only thing that would change is base salary for this year in an extension vs new contract.

The team cannot afford a new contract plus signing bonus on this year so they will do this just like they did Sherman and others drafted

 

[Anthony!]

Would you rather make 10 million now and 20 million next year? Or 1.5 million now, and 20 million next year? Don't you see your missing out in cashing in NOW, you won't make that money back simply because this year is the exception.

You are missing my point. The Seahawks is not and will not offer a new contract. They are offering an extension. The signing bonus will be the same - it is a matter of getting the $10 million now or getting it next year. The total amount is the same

I think the point is if Russell's career has a finite ending year, and it will.............then it stands to reason by playing out his rookie contract this year would result in one less year of making 20M+.

He's only going to play for however long he's going to play, so that means one less year of making big money.

Same point - they will give him an extension and make him play out this contract.

Regardless if I am wrong then the difference is not the signing bonus. Then the argument is about pure salary for this year.

There isn't $20 million for salary this year. Getting the signing bonus this year or next year will not change the amount of it the only thing that would change is base salary for this year in an extension vs new contract.

The team cannot afford a new contract plus signing bonus on this year so they will do this just like they did Sherman and others drafted

You just hit the issue they are only offering Wilson the same guaranteed money they offered Sherman. That is an issue. I mean if what we are being told is true. 1 year at 1.5 mil, then an ext at 4 years 80 mil is 81.5 by 5 years or 16.3 mil and only 11 mil guaranteed? If I were Wilson I would not sign it either and if he did the players would loose major respect for him. At 16.3 mil that means he would be the 13th highest paid QB and at 11 mil guaranteed he would be 24th most guaranteed money.

http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/

Like I said if that is the offer, it is totally low balled. Even if we just look at the 4 years 80 mil by itself and say it is 20 mil a year that gets him to top 5 money but the guarantee of 11 mil is still way way to low. I believe the sticking points are length and guaranteed money and if true Wilson is in the right.

 

[DJrmb]

If RW's frame of mind is anything close to what Softy said, it's all the more reason for him to play out his contract. Could backfire if he gets a season-ending injury. Not trying to jinx him, but I think that should always be a in a player's thought process. Strike when the iron is hot.

Playing out his contract is stupid on RW's part. Any contract signed this year will have a significant signing bonus, so even though his cap hit will be smaller, he'd get that cash NOW. If he waits a year he's not going to recoup that cash in the future.

I expect this to get done Late MAY, early JUNE.

If you believe the numbers thrown around his singing bonus would be 11 mil very very low for a Franchise QB

Signing Bonus is not all the Guaranteed money in the contract in most cases. So 11M is not that far off if the rumors of nearly 50% of the contract being guaranteed are true...

The number's I've heard that are on the table, from guys like Clayton, are around 4 years 85M with 40M guaranteed and 11M signing bonus.

That's a pretty fair offer from the Seahawks if true and I would tell Russell to get ready to look for a new team in 3 years if he was pushing for much more than that. I love the guy but no one is above the team. That gives you 3 years to find a viable replacement for Russell, not what you want but it's doable.

Think about it, who have the Seahawks "Low-balled" that they actually wanted to keep? If anything they've gotten heat from some fans for paying guys too much. Highly unlikely they would low-ball their Golden Boy, and the guy that supposedly is "causing rifts in the locker room because he's too close to the coaches/Front Office"

 

[mikeak]

You just hit the issue they are only offering Wilson the same guaranteed money they offered Sherman. That is an issue. I mean if what we are being told is true. 1 year at 1.5 mil, then an ext at 4 years 80 mil is 81.5 by 5 years or 16.3 mil and only 11 mil guaranteed? If I were Wilson I would not sign it either and if he did the players would loose major respect for him. At 16.3 mil that means he would be the 13th highest paid QB and at 11 mil guaranteed he would be 24th most guaranteed money.

http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/

Like I said if that is the offer, it is totally low balled. Even if we just look at the 4 years 80 mil by itself and say it is 20 mil a year that gets him to top 5 money but the guarantee of 11 mil is still way way to low. I believe the sticking points are length and guaranteed money and if true Wilson is in the right.

I don't agree that a 4 year extension should be split on a five year agreement and I outlined why earlier.

If he is made to play out this contract then he would face the same condition - a new 4 year contract. He won't get more by another team for the past year. In other words whatever he earns extra for this coming year is 100% bonus. you can't take the extension and split it on five and say it is unfair.

If he can shake out an extra four million for next year and split it on four years or do a five year deal with an extra million then he comes out golden for next year. Alternatively he plays it out for the million or so that he is owed and he will never get the extra money for the past year.

The only team that is willing MAYBE compensate for the past three years and the upcoming year is Seahawks.

Someone else may offer him more for the future but nobody will pay him for the past.

4 years 80 million is $20million / year - not $16.3

 

[Russ Willstrong]

Playing out his contract is stupid on RW's part. Any contract signed this year will have a significant signing bonus, so even though his cap hit will be smaller, he'd get that cash NOW. If he waits a year he's not going to recoup that cash in the future.

I expect this to get done Late MAY, early JUNE.

If you believe the numbers thrown around his singing bonus would be 11 mil very very low for a Franchise QB

Signing Bonus is not all the Guaranteed money in the contract in most cases. So 11M is not that far off if the rumors of nearly 50% of the contract being guaranteed are true...

The number's I've heard that are on the table, from guys like Clayton, are around 4 years 85M with 40M guaranteed and 11M signing bonus.

That's a pretty fair offer from the Seahawks if true and I would tell Russell to get ready to look for a new team in 3 years if he was pushing for much more than that. I love the guy but no one is above the team. That gives you 3 years to find a viable replacement for Russell, not what you want but it's doable.

Think about it, who have the Seahawks "Low-balled" that they actually wanted to keep? If anything they've gotten heat from some fans for paying guys too much. Highly unlikely they would low-ball their Golden Boy, and the guy that supposedly is "causing rifts in the locker room because he's too close to the coaches/Front Office"

And yet just last year the Seahawks low balled their golden-boy Golden Tate.

For Russell to take this offer without adjusting his 2015 salary doesn't pay him for his current level of play--not even for the upcoming year. Sure this extension pays him a signing bonus of 11 million but the offer is really for 4 years 80 million beginning in 2016. His 2015 salary remains 1.5 million. No doubt Wilson feels he is losing out on money this year and past years. The team knew he wasn't happy with his rookie contract back in 2012 but during that time they couldn't do anything about it. It was assumed they could compensate him for past production as soon as they could--just like they did for Lynch and others.
Now that the team has an opportunity to pitch to him their first offering is a curve ball.
Russell don't like curve balls!

 

[Russ Willstrong]

You just hit the issue they are only offering Wilson the same guaranteed money they offered Sherman. That is an issue. I mean if what we are being told is true. 1 year at 1.5 mil, then an ext at 4 years 80 mil is 81.5 by 5 years or 16.3 mil and only 11 mil guaranteed? If I were Wilson I would not sign it either and if he did the players would loose major respect for him. At 16.3 mil that means he would be the 13th highest paid QB and at 11 mil guaranteed he would be 24th most guaranteed money.

http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/

Like I said if that is the offer, it is totally low balled. Even if we just look at the 4 years 80 mil by itself and say it is 20 mil a year that gets him to top 5 money but the guarantee of 11 mil is still way way to low. I believe the sticking points are length and guaranteed money and if true Wilson is in the right.

I don't agree that a 4 year extension should be split on a five year agreement and I outlined why earlier.

If he is made to play out this contract then he would face the same condition - a new 4 year contract. He won't get more by another team for the past year. In other words whatever he earns extra for this coming year is 100% bonus. you can't take the extension and split it on five and say it is unfair.

If he can shake out an extra four million for next year and split it on four years or do a five year deal with an extra million then he comes out golden for next year. Alternatively he plays it out for the million or so that he is owed and he will never get the extra money for the past year.

The only team that is willing MAYBE compensate for the past three years and the upcoming year is Seahawks.

Someone else may offer him more for the future but nobody will pay him for the past.

4 years 80 million is $20million / year - not $16.3

This extension still doesn't offer him the same earning potential that playing out his contract would. We've gone over the numbers and scenarios for franchise quarterbacks.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

I expect it will be right after June 1st ...that's when Mebane and Okung can be cut to save an additional 10 million on this year's cap.

Mebane, I can buy but you don't just dump top tier LT's even with injury history. Unless you love Kansas City's attempt at it?

You better have a backup plan and what we currently have as replacement options doesn't cut it. And I don't see us drafting in the top half of the first round anytime soon. Which is where these guys are found.

 

[Anthony!]

If RW's frame of mind is anything close to what Softy said, it's all the more reason for him to play out his contract. Could backfire if he gets a season-ending injury. Not trying to jinx him, but I think that should always be a in a player's thought process. Strike when the iron is hot.

Playing out his contract is stupid on RW's part. Any contract signed this year will have a significant signing bonus, so even though his cap hit will be smaller, he'd get that cash NOW. If he waits a year he's not going to recoup that cash in the future.

I expect this to get done Late MAY, early JUNE.

If you believe the numbers thrown around his singing bonus would be 11 mil very very low for a Franchise QB

Signing Bonus is not all the Guaranteed money in the contract in most cases. So 11M is not that far off if the rumors of nearly 50% of the contract being guaranteed are true...

The number's I've heard that are on the table, from guys like Clayton, are around 4 years 85M with 40M guaranteed and 11M signing bonus.

That's a pretty fair offer from the Seahawks if true and I would tell Russell to get ready to look for a new team in 3 years if he was pushing for much more than that. I love the guy but no one is above the team. That gives you 3 years to find a viable replacement for Russell, not what you want but it's doable.

Think about it, who have the Seahawks "Low-balled" that they actually wanted to keep? If anything they've gotten heat from some fans for paying guys too much. Highly unlikely they would low-ball their Golden Boy, and the guy that supposedly is "causing rifts in the locker room because he's too close to the coaches/Front Office"

Well first last thins I saw in writing had them wanting to offer Wilson 4 years 80 mil.

"In fact, the Seahawks haven't put $100 million on the table right now," O'Neil said, citing various league sources familiar with negotiations. "The offer of a four-year extension is believed to be worth closer to $80 million."

What I have seen is they want to offer Wilson the same guaranteed money as Sherman and the same signing bonus. Which is 11 mil signing bonus and 40 mil guaranteed. So that would make the offer to Wilson low balled.

Lets look at it Sherman gets a 56 mil contract, 11 mil signing bonus or 20% and 40 mill guaranteed or 71% and Wilson gets 80 Mil contract, 11 mil singing bonus or 14%, and 40 mil Guaranteed or 50%. Really ? That is low balled and whats worse we really do not know all the details it could be lower as I red some place the guarantee was less than 40 mil. Either way you do not offer basically the same bonus and guarantees to your QB as you do to a CB. As to the fans really that is your reasoning why they offered to much? Dude if the deal is 4 year 80 it is low balled. IT is not a dollar issue but a years issue.

 

[Anthony!]

You just hit the issue they are only offering Wilson the same guaranteed money they offered Sherman. That is an issue. I mean if what we are being told is true. 1 year at 1.5 mil, then an ext at 4 years 80 mil is 81.5 by 5 years or 16.3 mil and only 11 mil guaranteed? If I were Wilson I would not sign it either and if he did the players would loose major respect for him. At 16.3 mil that means he would be the 13th highest paid QB and at 11 mil guaranteed he would be 24th most guaranteed money.

http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/

Like I said if that is the offer, it is totally low balled. Even if we just look at the 4 years 80 mil by itself and say it is 20 mil a year that gets him to top 5 money but the guarantee of 11 mil is still way way to low. I believe the sticking points are length and guaranteed money and if true Wilson is in the right.

I don't agree that a 4 year extension should be split on a five year agreement and I outlined why earlier.

If he is made to play out this contract then he would face the same condition - a new 4 year contract. He won't get more by another team for the past year. In other words whatever he earns extra for this coming year is 100% bonus. you can't take the extension and split it on five and say it is unfair.

If he can shake out an extra four million for next year and split it on four years or do a five year deal with an extra million then he comes out golden for next year. Alternatively he plays it out for the million or so that he is owed and he will never get the extra money for the past year.

The only team that is willing MAYBE compensate for the past three years and the upcoming year is Seahawks.

Someone else may offer him more for the future but nobody will pay him for the past.

4 years 80 million is $20million / year - not $16.3

Not when you add in his current year it is 5 years 81 mil or 16.3. That is the issue they just redid Lynch's contract twice because he threatens to hold out or retire they can do it for Wilson.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

If you guys think 4/80M with 40M guaranteed is a final offer and not just a start point there's a bridge in Brooklyn I'll sell you.....CHEAP. Just keep it on the down low though, okay?

Just accept that when it's done the raw numbers will make your eyes pop and your pacemakers stop. So just relax and be prepared (Anthony!).

 

[Rocket]

Yeah I would not believe any of that either, since it is PC who is not allowing Wilson to throw into tight windows, PC has stated he doe snot want TOs, and as drilled that into Wilson so that is all on PC.

I've seen Doe Snot, it's pretty gross. It's kinda sticky and slimy, as one would expect.

 

[Exittium]

They won't let him walk, they'll risk losing a lot. Especially in terms of fans imo. I'd still watch them but, I wouldn't have any respect for them if they let him walk. They'll pay him... May not happen now but it will happen.

 

[Hawkfan77]

PAY. THAT. MAN. HIS. MAANEY.

If this is a Rounders Malkovich reference, I vehemently approve.

[youtube]1jUBbCgMWmE[/youtube]

 

[theincrediblesok]

Remember when Golden Tate left on a lowball offered from the FO, and we sured missed him last year. Don't forget we couldn't keep Red or Clemons, and our pass rush took a dip. You let Wilson walk then it's going to be a bigger impact, game over Seattle.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Remember when Golden Tate left on a lowball offered from the FO, and we sured missed him last year. Don't forget we couldn't keep Red or Clemons, and our pass rush took a dip. You let Wilson walk then it's going to be a bigger impact, game over Seattle.

Yes, we missed all of them but to use a baseball term every last one of the above mentioned players are what's termed a "Civic". In other sports they're known as as midlevel players. You never overpay for "Civics" you pay your Ferrari's and surround them with Honda Civics at market price and not a penny more.

In otherwords you understand exactly what game is being played between the FO and Wilson and it's NEVER fun to watch from front row seats.

 

[Tical21]

Alex Smith and KJ Wright comparison isn't fair. Two terribly overpaid players. My thought process was finding another QB on a rookie contract or finding a diamond of a cheap veteran that you like. Maybe a few of each and let them duke it out. It really can't be that hard to find QB's that can play cautiously and run it a bit. Our system allows us to treat the QB position with kid gloves if we have to. It can make a lot of guys look a lot better than they really are. I think there are a bunch of QB's that would have won at least one Super Bowl with our roster over the past two or three seasons.

How about door number 1 is Wilson
Door number 2 is a couple cheap QB's that you like, Vincent Jackson and Lamar Houston, and I get to keep another one of my own guys. I can roll with that. I think within a year or two we could find a QB to win with for another year or two. I know it is unconventional, but I gotta say, I'd feel pretty good with something like that. 23+ million to spend on players. That's a couple of pro bowlers right there. You gotta hit on a QB, I get that. I really do. I'm the guy that has long said you are only as good as your quarterback. But I hadn't seen a roster like this, and not many quarterbacks made this kind of franchise hindering money. And we throw the ball less than anybody else. I think there can be another way.

The thing you aren't considering is that if a QB wins, even if he is Alex Smith or Andy Dalton, he will get paid. And he'll get paid 75% of what Russell is probably about to get.

Any veteran that is decent at all and wins 10+ games would immediately be looking at many millions on his next deal. You'd literally have to swap out your QB every year almost just to keep the position cheap. That is unless you drafted them, but then you have to sacrifice years while grooming them.

It's not that this model hasn't been tried. Look at Cleveland or Buffalo or the Texans. Cleveland has had something like 20 starting QBs in the last 17 years. Only three of those twenty were first round picks. Buffalo has churned through QBs since Kelly retired. The Texans only period of success came when they had a modicum of stability at the QB position for a few years with Schaub.

Baltimore wasted one of the better defenses in modern NFL history because they couldn't find a QB. Finally they got tired of it and traded for McNair. It instantly made them a much better football team.

Russell is not conventional, but he is massively above replacement level. I think he adds 3-4 wins to our team. I don't think you could add that many wins with a bargain basement QB du jour and two nice players at other positions. Wilson is easily worth 17% of his team's cap commitment.

As far as the top five theory, the Seahawks are not like other teams. They add value in free agency with smallish signings, but do their heavy lifting in the draft. Everyone that says Seattle wins because they could spend more elsewhere ignores the fact that no other team even comes close to providing as much cost effective value than Seattle does all over the field, so they can handle the hit better than most.

Besides, the top five premise is deeply flawed anyway. The Packers DVOA has remained equally high after paying Rodgers. The Ravens DVOA was excellent last year despite paying Flacco. Until Big Ben signed, Peyton Manning was top five and his team was one of the most dominant in the NFL the last three years. Back when Brady's salary was top five, he was on the best DVOA team of all time and nearly went 19-0.

Do you think there is a single GM in the NFL that would go cheap at QB if they could pay a difference maker like Wilson, Luck, or Rodgers? I seriously doubt there is even one. The value added by an elite QB dwarfs the value of an elite player at any other position, even Lynch does not add as much value as Wilson does (case in point, 2011).

Thankfully, it's easily possible to pay an elite QB and still strategically keep a few superstars at other positions, so it's a bit of a false choice. The guys we'd be letting go to make room for Wilson wouldn't be Earl, Kam, Sherm, or Lynch. It would be the Red Bryants, Chris Clemons, Breno Giacominis, James Carpenters, and Byron Maxwells. When we are talking about what money buys you, those are the kind of players the extra money would get us.

Superstars rarely hit UFA and it hasn't been JS's MO to pursue them because paying a guy like Suh $19 million AYP isn't all that great in terms of moneyball value. Realistically, how many wins does Suh add? Probably not many, considering that JJ Watt once played for a 2 win team.

Even at $22+ million, Wilson is excellent moneyball value in terms of wins added per dollar. It would be extremely hard to do better.

I don't know if I could really support the idea that our system makes QBs look good. Deep down, part of me wants to agree with you since Pete is such a brilliantly accommodating coach. But the facts paint a different picture. Flynn failed here. Whitehurst failed here. Brady Quinn looked bad. Terrell Pryor didn't suddenly become good. Tjack was basically the exact same guy he was in Minnesota.

Alright, I took my standing 8 count, a little dazed, but let's see what kind of comeback I can muster.

You keep going back to the market rate for QB's. I fully understand the market rate for QB's. I can very easily make a damn good point that the market for QB's is terribly flawed. Every really bad team wants a decent one so they can gain respectability and job security. Alex Smith is good enough to allow a coach to keep their job for a while, but will prevent KC from ever having a chance to win the Super Bowl, barring a historically great defense. Was it a good move for a team to sign him to the money he got? Some team was going to do it, right? If not KC, somebody else would have committed franchise suicide. I'm betting I think signings like his are much worse than you do. If I was the Browns, I wouldn't touch him or anybody like him. I want to win championships.

Cleveland and Buffalo are Cleveland and Buffalo. Their woes are deep enough that I could spend all day writing about them. They don't have, nor have had a in a long time, Pete Carroll, John Schneider, or the best roster in football by a long ways. If you are that bad for that long, and you get a Russell Wilson, you hold on for dear life, you pay him 35 million if he wants it. We're not anywhere on the same hemisphere as that situation, so it is tough to compare the two.

The Baltimore Ravens got to a Super Bowl. They went out and paid the wrong QB, and never got back. They would have been much better off loading that gun again after Boller. I like Ozzie Newsome a lot, and I'm surprised he never got if figured out. That was about as bad of a QB experience as you can have, and even then, they still won at a pretty high rate.

As far as Russell adding 3-4 wins over replacement level, that is highly subjective and I'm sure you know that. Tarvaris Jackson went 7-7 as our starter. 20 of the 22 positions from our current roster are better than when he was the starter. And he was thought to be improving, and we were pretty optimistic for him the next season. Can't we then conclude he would win at a better than .500 clip if still our QB? Our current roster wins 10-11 games when it gets out of bed in the morning. We won 12 last year. You're telling me with a league average starting QB, we are an 8 win team? We are basically the same as 2011? That's ridiculous.

Also, the comparison of the wins added by Lynch in 2011 vs the wins added by Wilson is flawed because of the same roster scenario, and you know that as well. How about having a historically great defense to help add to your win total, that can't hurt.

Once the Seahawks sign Wagner and Wilson, what cost-effective value do they have? Sweezy? Britt? Is there another single starter that gets you huge returns in that area? They WERE cost-effective until everybody got top-dollar. They no longer can claim that luxury. What they have been VERY good at, is not making big mistakes with their money, sans Harvin.

The Packers DVOA is a perfect example of what I mean. It isn't like the Seahawks are going to fall flat on their face if they sign Wilson to big money. They're still going to be in the mix more years than not. They're just going to end up losing to teams with cheaper QB's. EXACTLY like what happened when the Packers ran into the 49ers and Seahawks in the playoffs. Exactly like what has been happening to all of the high paid QB's for over a decade. They run into a team with a better roster and less deficiencies due to the fact that they haven't had to pay their QB's crazy money. It has happened time and time again, I don't see the flaw.

Nope, there isn't a single GM in the game that would go cheap at QB rather than pay their guy to huge money. Not one. But there will be. It will happen, probably because the player won't sign, demands to enter free agency, and the team prospers anyways. Then the copycatting will start. All we've ever heard is how you always sign the franchise QB to big money. Nobody has tried it any other way, but they will.

We don't have any more Red Bryant's, Zach Millers, Carps or Brenos. If we lose guys because of signing Russell now, it will be our pro-bowl DT, all-pro LT and all-world RB. There is also something to be said for being able to keep the Golden Tate's and Byron Maxwell's of the world. We've seen the alternative, and it isn't exactly rosy.

I'm not going to argue about Flynn, Whitehurst, or Pryor failing here. I still think we could have been good with Flynn, but I digress. Could we have won one Super Bowl over the past three seasons with Tarvaris? I would hope our front office is getting better as they go. Didn't they find Russell Wilson in only their second draft with the franchise? If my premise is flawed, the biggest reason is that I am perhaps overconfident that Schneider and Carroll could find another good quarterback. But if they can, I think we rattle off Super Bowls.

Ok. I think we've beaten this thing to death. We all know that Russell Wilson is going to get signed to some huge contract. Most feel it will propel us to great playoff riches and future Super Bowls, correct? My contention is that it will prevent us from being as successful as our roster could be if we weren't paying a QB that kind of money. Furthermore, I think if there is ever a point where we don't have an awesome running back, Russell's game isn't going to stand up. Of this, I am quite certain. I just know. The real question is, what criteria are we going to be able to use to judge if I was right or not. Sadly, I think a lot of people are going to be thinking back several years from now saying "damn, that dirty SOB was right."