Reports: Ndamukong Suh wants to sign with Seahawks

[mikeak]

Remember, the salary cap is rising at historic rates right now.

Nitpicking to follow ( ), but not true. It's the biggest jump since 2006, but nowhere close to a historic rate. Between 2005 and 2006 the cap went up by 20%.

If anything 2011 and 2012 were a brief flat cap era, whereas this is getting back to normal.

I'll clarify what I meant.

I'm going off of raw increases rather than percentages. It was only 21 years ago that the cap era began at $34.6 million. $34.6 million is probably what the Oakland A's were paying their players in 1994. So going by % growth is a bit misleading since the cap was ridiculously small at its inception and this would lead to huge % increases for small raises.

2006 and 2009 had massive outlier increases. $17 million and $13 million respectively. But the average of all other years from 1999 to the uncapped year in 2010 was a steady $5.5 million per year. When you include the outlier years, its roughly 7.5 million on average per year over that decade.

The cap is projected to rise $30 million from 2012 to 2016. It's not the biggest spike in growth ever, but it is the highest "consistent" growth, with every year averaging about $9 million, which is very impressive given the lack of outliers in this sample to raise the average.

Given the rapid brand growth the NFL has seen since the lockout ended, it is likely that his rate of cap increases will continue and that the 2010-2020 period will increase significantly more than the 2000-2010 period did.

What makes the past two years growth even more impressive is the fact that the Cap was NOT supposed to increase beyond marginally..... it took everyone by surprise what happened (this year was supposed to be the first year with any reali significant increase)

 

[Clayfighter]

But what's his vertical?

Ain't he a bit big to have a vertical?

How else will we know if he can be a #1 WR?

Thank you. I haven't laughed that hard in a while...

 

[dadof3]

I'm worried about Suh not being able to draw double coverage when he runs a slant route.

:sarcasm_off:

Ask Hawksurething, he'll know

 

[Basis4day]

I'm worried about Suh not being able to draw double coverage when he runs a slant route.

:sarcasm_off:

Ask Hawksurething, he'll know

And if he doesn't, he will on his 7th edit.

 

[zelter]

Suh will follow the big bucks and land in either Oakland or Jacksonville
and never be heard from again ...

 

[Hawkfan77]

Suh will follow the big bucks and land in either Oakland or Jacksonville
and never be heard from again ...

Doubtful

 

[Hawks46]

Suh will follow the big bucks and land in either Oakland or Jacksonville
and never be heard from again ...

John Schneider is perfectly capable of making Suh the highest paid defensive player with a crap contract consisting of a mid range amount of guaranteed money and flexibility for the team at the end to cut or restructure.

I think they can get Suh with a decent contract that is fair and straight forward, IF Suh really wants to compete and win. Looking at his press conference from the end of last year, he was crushed when the Lions finally got competitive then lost.

This is the most fascinating story for me in Free Agency. Is he all about the money, or does he want to go to a good team ? How strong is Pete's pull for elite FA's ? We'll find out.

 

[chris98251]

Avril pick up the White Phone.

 

[Bigpumpkin]

But what's his vertical?

Ain't he a bit big to have a vertical?

He just needs to get high enough to come down on a QB's leg.

 

[dumbrabbit]

What is the definition of a "strong" offseason? What is the threshold? Hawks don't necessarily need a "strong" offseason, whatever that means. Every offseason is crucial, don't single out one. Suh won't be some monumental signing that sets up the franchise for the future. If he can contribute, then sign him(cue the moneball references).

I would say drafting/signing for 5 contributers per offseason the next few offseasons will set the team up pretty well for the future. But most of the contributers will have to come from the draft, and that may mean not getting Suh. I think some of us need to be careful about what we wish for.

 

[CurryStopstheRuns]

What is the definition of a "strong" offseason? What is the threshold? Hawks don't necessarily need a "strong" offseason, whatever that means. Every offseason is crucial, don't single out one. Suh won't be some monumental signing that sets up the franchise for the future. If he can contribute, then sign him(cue the moneball references).

I would say drafting/signing for 5 contributers per offseason the next few offseasons will set the team up pretty well for the future. But most of the contributers will have to come from the draft, and that may mean not getting Suh. I think some of us need to be careful about what we wish for.

So, if the Seahawks sign Suh then they have to stop drafting for the future?

 

[McGruff]

What is the definition of a "strong" offseason? What is the threshold? Hawks don't necessarily need a "strong" offseason, whatever that means. Every offseason is crucial, don't single out one. Suh won't be some monumental signing that sets up the franchise for the future. If he can contribute, then sign him(cue the moneball references).

I would say drafting/signing for 5 contributers per offseason the next few offseasons will set the team up pretty well for the future. But most of the contributers will have to come from the draft, and that may mean not getting Suh. I think some of us need to be careful about what we wish for.

Actually, I think the opposite is true. Solid drafting sets you up to swing big once in a while in free agency. Less holes and depth to backfill, so you can go after the superstars.

 

[bjornanderson21]

If the lions tag him they can trade him. The tag for Suh is somewhere the 20 mil range.

No one is trading for Suh at the FT price.

His salary for 2014 was 22.4m

To tag him would require 22.4 * 1.2 = 26.88m for 2015.

For reference:

Earl Thomas 7.4m
Richard Sherman 12,2m
Kam Chancellor 5.6m

Total: 30.2m

Suh would cost almost the same as our three pro bowl/all pro secondary by himself if tagged.

The Lions parted with one of their cut eligible players (Bush). Saving only 1.7m. They only have 6 other players who if cut can recoup 1m or more. That list is:

Deandre Levy: 3.5m
Stephen Tulloch: 3.2m
Jason Jones: 3.1m
James Ihedigbo: 1.6m
Joique Bell: 1.5m
Riley Reiff: 1.4m

Total: 14.3m
Total under cap possible: 14.3m + existing 18.3m = 32.7m

Out of that 32.7m, they have to pay replacements for the 7 players (Bush included). They also need to set aside 4.7m in draft pick expenditures.

We could for argument's sake, just presume they use their entire draft to simply replace the 7 players lost to cuts. That would leave them at 28m.

But they also have a lot of UFAs that need resigning or replacing. A short list includes:

Nick Fairley
Rob Sims
Dominic Raiola
Corey Hilliard
CJ Mosley
Rashean Mathis
Cassius Vaughn

There are plenty of others as well. In order to resign Suh, it would require all of these players leaving. So for this exercise, we'd also just call these players 'cuts'. In addition to the six (well seven including Bush) from above.

And that's not allowing for anyone getting injured. The IR allocation would be next to nothing. The team would in essence only really be able to list 2 players on IR for the year with only 1m available cash. Every player injured would have to be carried on the active roster all year.

And finally, of those 6 cuts above, that would incur the following in dead money:

Deandre Levy: 1m
Stephen Tulloch: 2.6m
Jason Jones: .8m
James Ihedigbo: .4m
Joique Bell: 2m
Riley Reiff: 1m

7.8m (more than Harvin's dead money for us). Added to their league high dead money of 17.4m already on the books. Pushing it to a staggering 25.2m for 2015. That's almost exactly the value of the 2nd and 3rd most dead money teams (Ravens 12.5, Cowboys 12.8) combined.

Detroit simply doesn't have the contracts to cut. They can tag him if they want to. But should Suh sign it -- they are stuck with the near certainty of not being able to dress a full team for most of the year as soon as attrition sets in. It would be needless to say, the weirdest salary cap circumstance ever.

Props for taking time to put together a detailed post like that.

 

[dumbrabbit]

What is the definition of a "strong" offseason? What is the threshold? Hawks don't necessarily need a "strong" offseason, whatever that means. Every offseason is crucial, don't single out one. Suh won't be some monumental signing that sets up the franchise for the future. If he can contribute, then sign him(cue the moneball references).

I would say drafting/signing for 5 contributers per offseason the next few offseasons will set the team up pretty well for the future. But most of the contributers will have to come from the draft, and that may mean not getting Suh. I think some of us need to be careful about what we wish for.

So, if the Seahawks sign Suh then they have to stop drafting for the future?

I see no where in my post where I said that. I'm not Schneider, it's his money. But I would think signing Suh to such a large contract per rumors, along with Wilson, Wagner and Lynch's extension would cripple in what we could do, in my opinion. I'm not an expert on the cap. But it just seems that way.

 

[Hawkfan77]

What is the definition of a "strong" offseason? What is the threshold? Hawks don't necessarily need a "strong" offseason, whatever that means. Every offseason is crucial, don't single out one. Suh won't be some monumental signing that sets up the franchise for the future. If he can contribute, then sign him(cue the moneball references).

I would say drafting/signing for 5 contributers per offseason the next few offseasons will set the team up pretty well for the future. But most of the contributers will have to come from the draft, and that may mean not getting Suh. I think some of us need to be careful about what we wish for.

So, if the Seahawks sign Suh then they have to stop drafting for the future?

I see no where in my post where I said that. I'm not Schneider, it's his money. But I would think signing Suh to such a large contract per rumors, along with Wilson, Wagner and Lynch's extension would cripple in what we could do, in my opinion. I'm not an expert on the cap. But it just seems that way.

Your post is a little confusing. You said "But most of the contributers will have to come from the draft, and that may mean not getting Suh." So if we do get Suh does that mean that they will not get contributors through the draft? I'm trying to figure out how signing or not signing Suh effects the draft.

 

[Bigpumpkin]

Well....the word on the radio from the national talking heads this morning is that he is more likely to go to Oakland.

 

[Basis4day]

Well....the word on the radio from the national talking heads this morning is that he is more likely to go to Oakland.

It's a logical choice if hes looking to cash in. They have an absurd amount of cap space.

 

[seahawk12thman]

He should fit in well with that wonderful organization. Hope he stays there for life...

 

[McGruff]

Well....the word on the radio from the national talking heads this morning is that he is more likely to go to Oakland.

The talking heads haven't picked up on the Seattle angle at all. They are simply connecting the cash, but other factors enter in that may not be considered by those who don't know Suh's full situation.

 

[Hawkfan77]

He should fit in well with that wonderful organization. Hope he stays there for life...

If you're talking about the Seahawks then I agree!