QB countdown w/Russ ESPN coming up

[Sarlacc83]

Another point to consider... not all INTS are the same... a deep INT on 3rd and long isn't a killer where as an INT in the redzone is, so just looking at INTS is a bit misleading, instead, looking at points off turnovers is better, but unfortunately, those stats are harder to find.

If anyone wants to volunteer to look at the ESPN play by plays to get the turnovers and the points after, I'm working through Luck's right now. I can take Wilson, too.

Good luck (no pun intended)

Wasn't hard, actually. ESPN has a tracker that shows the number of turnovers in a game, so I could easily scroll past the ones that say 0.

Breakdown of Luck v. Wilson

Points scored off turnovers. Luck: 60, Wilson 37

Pick sixes: Luck 3, Wilson 1 (1 fumble return for TD, as well. Forgot to count Luck's.)

Games without turnovers: Luck 5 (including 3 at the end of the season.) Wilson: 7

Turnovers that led to turnovers by the other team: 1 each

Turnovers at end of half: 1 each ( I think.)

Number of turnovers that didn't lead to points: Luck: 16 Wilson: 6

Number of turnovers that led to FG: Luck: 5, Wilson: 3

Number of turnovers to TDs not counting picksix/fumble return: Luck:3 Wilson:3

Conclusion: Luck's defense did a great job bailing him out, and Seattle did not. Puts the Luck on Seattle aspect into perspective, too. Also, it's likely helped by Luck's issues being generally further downfield. One other thing I noticed is that there were quite a few turnovers by Luck that were called back by penalties. So, he doesn't protect the ball at all.

Edit: Updated because I miscounted the non point scoring turnovers

 

[NinerBuff]

Wasn't hard, actually. ESPN has a tracker that shows the number of turnovers in a game, so I could easily scroll past the ones that say 0.

Breakdown of Luck v. Wilson

Points scored off turnovers. Luck: 60, Wilson 37

Pick sixes: Luck 3, Wilson 1 (1 fumble return for TD, as well. Forgot to count Luck's.)

Games without turnovers: Luck 5 (including 3 at the end of the season.) Wilson: 7

Turnovers that led to turnovers by the other team: 1 each

Turnovers at end of half: 1 each ( I think.)

Number of turnovers that didn't lead to points: Luck: 16 Wilson: 6

Number of turnovers that led to FG: Luck: 5, Wilson: 3

Number of turnovers to TDs not counting picksix/fumble return: Luck:3 Wilson:3

Conclusion: Luck's defense did a great job bailing him out, and Seattle did not. Puts the Luck on Seattle aspect into perspective, too.

Edit: Updated because I miscounted the non point scoring turnovers

Great work dude!

So... Turnovers to opposing points:

Luck: -60pts
Wilson: -37pts

Scoring (including playoffs):

Luck: 23 TDs passing, 5 TDs rushing: 165 pts
Wilson: 29 TDs passing, 5 TDs rushing: 204 pts

Net Points:

Luck: +105 pts (6.176 pt/game)
Wilson: +167 pts (9.278 pt/game)

Defenses:

Colts: 387 pts (regular season) + 24 (postseason) = 24.176 pt/game
Seahawks: 245 pts (regular season) + 44 (postseason) = 16.055 pt/game

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

What gets me is that everyone keeps calling Kaepernick a rookie. He is not a rookie he was a second year player which is light years away from a rookie. Fact is this would have been his year to start if Alex Smith wouldn't have gotten his concussion. Jim Harbaugh got lucky his move worked given it's a cardinal sin in football to take a player's job away over a recoverable injury.

 

[therealsm]

What gets me is that everyone keeps calling Kaepernick a rookie. He is not a rookie he was a second year player which is light years away from a rookie. Fact is this would have been his year to start if Alex Smith wouldn't have gotten his concussion. Jim Harbaugh got lucky his move worked given it's a cardinal sin in football to take a player's job away over a recoverable injury.

This.

 

[Hawks46]

I wouldn't trade Wilson for anybody , But for Wilson to be ranked 12th? That's FINE with me.

not sure why some people get angry over those things but then again that's why these lists are made.

You honestly wouldn't straight up trade Andrew Luck for Wilson? Just imagine what Luck could do with those WRs and that defense... It would be incredible to see.

Yeah his 54% comp % and 6.98 YPA were breathtaking. Oh wait, Wilson had 64.1% and 7.93 YPA were much better.

Yet with so many more passing attempts Luck threw 3 less TD's. The fact of the matter was Wilson was much more efficient and more productive per opportunity given to throw. Lucks TD/ATT %= 3.67%, or 27.26 throws per TD, Wilson's was 6.61% or every 15.11 throws= TD.

So yeah, I'd take Wilson over Luck. (though I do like Luck alot - I really like his self-deprecating personality.) Both should be really good QB's for a long time.

Once again, stats don't tell the entire story. Luck played behind one of the worst OL's in the league. He led the league in pressured dropbacks. I personally think Wilson would've done better than Luck as he's much more nimble, but Luck showed almost otherwordly pocket prescence and poise last year.

So, Wilson is also better with his legs, right ? Funny stat: Luck has more rushing TD's than Wilson does last year.

What's with all the Kaepernick hate ? What has he shown any of you "experts" that states he won't progress at all and get better (and he was damn good last year). Just curious...everyone calls him names, claims there's "no way" that he's better than Wilson, and there's "no way" he'll get better this year. Just curious.

Personally, I'm fine with them ranking him right where he is. I want all the talking heads saying how overhyped our team is. I want them saying SF is better at every position and they will win the division. I want people to say our team is garbage. Because IF our team is listening to any of this, they play way better pissed off and with a chip on their shoulder.

I don't want our guys thinking they've won anything yet. Play pissed. Let everyone else play scared.

 

[EastCoastHawksFan]

I would take Russell Wilson over a 1984 Dan Marino . I'm not trading this kid.
He makes me so happy! As a fan what else can I ask for ?

 

[Basis4day]

Someone wrote Brock and Danny re: whether or not you would trade Wilson for another QB. Made the analogy that RW is like your wife.
Another woman may be smarter, better looking, younger, older, funnier etc. The difference is, it's YOUR wife and you wouldn't trade her for anything.

I think many Hawks fans look at Wilson the same way.

 

[NinerBuff]

Someone wrote Brock and Danny re: whether or not you would trade Wilson for another QB. Made the analogy that RW is like your wife.
Another woman may be smarter, better looking, younger, older, funnier etc. The difference is, it's YOUR wife and you wouldn't trade her for anything.

I think many Hawks fans look at Wilson the same way.

And this is the reason why fans don't make good GMs... I'm not saying a good GM would trade Wilson, but your enthusiasm towards Wilson is similarly matched by the INDY, WAS, and SF fansbases for their guys.

 

[HansGruber]

My problem with Kaepernick being rated higher is that he had some big fails that Wilson never suffered.

Wilson never lost a game 42-13. He never lost a game on a last second blown opportunity like that SuperBowl loss. Kaepernick blew that pass on 4th and Goal. Troy Aikman called him out and said it was the type of rookie mistake you don't want to see, that guys are trained since high school to avoid the fade on 3rd or 4th, and he noted that Kaepernick had an open receiver in the play as well as an open path to the end zone. Big time rookie mistake. And he really struggled under pressure all season. You just didn't see that from Wilson, ever.

As to Wilson vs Luck, it reminds me of the old arguments about Dan Marino vs every other quarterback in the 80s. Luck reminds me a lot of Marino, who was probably the best pure passer I've ever seen. The guy put up obscene yards every season but never could seal the deal, for a number of reasons. But every season, people would say he was the best quarterback in the nfl (even after Montana had won his first ring) and all he needed was a few skill players at rb or wr. I'm not saying Luck won't win anything, but he might be the next Peyton or Elway, guys who didn't win much until the tail end of their careers.

One thing is for sure, you look at the greats, the guys who won multiple titles in their prime - guys like Montana, Young, Brady, Plunkett, Eli and Rapistberger - and all those guys were seen as average or below average and never got the superstar Luck/Marino/Elway treatment. But they got their teams multiple championships and I'll bet their fans would take that any day over media love.

And no, I wouldn't trade Wilson for anyone. He's got that special something. That competitive fire, total focus, outstanding work ethic, all those things that make guys like Brady who they are. I honestly believe he will join the ranks of multiple championship-winning quarterbacks.

And I don't believe Kaepernick will ever win one. I'd put money on it and I'm not even a gambler.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Someone wrote Brock and Danny re: whether or not you would trade Wilson for another QB. Made the analogy that RW is like your wife.
Another woman may be smarter, better looking, younger, older, funnier etc. The difference is, it's YOUR wife and you wouldn't trade her for anything.

I think many Hawks fans look at Wilson the same way.

And this is the reason why fans don't make good GMs... I'm not saying a good GM would trade Wilson, but your enthusiasm towards Wilson is similarly matched by the INDY, WAS, and SF fansbases for their guys.

Wrong.

 

[WilsonMVP]

Seeing how we are talking about turnovers I actually found a video of every INT for Wilson this season
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wePHN9NXKys

1. End of Half Hailmary INT
2. Bounced right into the WRs hand and then out for an INT
3. Lynch was blocking his guy, Wilson stepped up and got the ball swatted from behind from Lynchs Defender and the ball was a lame duck.
4. WR slips and INT
5. Lynch caught it for like 1-2 sec and then threw it up for an INT, this after Wilson escaped defenders left and right.
6. Def a late ball and thrown behind the WR...CB made a great play on this.
7. Bomb into double coverage...not sure on the down or distance
8. Long Bomb to Rice by the sideline that was prob a foot or so too far to the left. In the replay it looks like Rice had a good chance at it.
9. Semi deflected PLUS Tate Tripped when him and the CB were coming back to the ball.. UP 31-0 anyway haha
10. A RB screen that was MAYBE a little high but it hit the RB in the hands and the LB was in the perfect position.
11. Int at the end of the playoff game in Atlanta on a last second bomb. Shouldnt of ever happened anyway.

As you can see there are a few that def werent even his fault. I mean 2 were because the WR tripped. 3 were because the WR or RB couldnt handle the pass and lost it even though it hit their hand. Theres probably only about 4-5 that were truly Bad throws.

 

[LudwigsDrummer]

rodgers, brady manning, manning, kaepernick, ryan, flacco, schaub, roethlisberger, luck and brees

You sure seems on the up and up, dude. You're here to contribute and NOT troll, obviously.

Exactly. My thoughts on almost every post this nut publishes. My money says "IT" is a SF troll from the ESPN boards that are being crap canned in a week.

Which ESPN troll were ya?

 

[Basis4day]

rodgers, brady manning, manning, kaepernick, ryan, flacco, schaub, roethlisberger, luck and brees

You sure seems on the up and up, dude. You're here to contribute and NOT troll, obviously.

Exactly. My thoughts on almost every post this nut publishes. My money says "IT" is a SF troll from the ESPN boards that are being crap canned in a week.

Which ESPN troll were ya?

He is a troll, basically admitted it in the Lynch DUI thread and Absolute banned him.

 

[Basis4day]

Someone wrote Brock and Danny re: whether or not you would trade Wilson for another QB. Made the analogy that RW is like your wife.
Another woman may be smarter, better looking, younger, older, funnier etc. The difference is, it's YOUR wife and you wouldn't trade her for anything.

I think many Hawks fans look at Wilson the same way.

And this is the reason why fans don't make good GMs... I'm not saying a good GM would trade Wilson, but your enthusiasm towards Wilson is similarly matched by the INDY, WAS, and SF fansbases for their guys.

I can agree with that. And all those other fanbases have reason to be excited about their respective QB's. And even if it was possible or reasonable, none of those Front Offices should feel compelled to "upgrade" at the QB position.

 

[LudwigsDrummer]

i don't claim to be a seahawks fan, i thought my username might give that away (it isnt rocket science). I am just here to provoke thought. I don't troll.


How do you think Wilson would do in Indy with teams having to key on Donald Brown or Vick Ballard?
and refresh your luck stance with him having Harvin, Rice and Lynch?

Yep. I smell a troll.

 

[TheRealDTM]

If Russel Wilson wasn't 5"10 we wouldn't be having any of these conversations. And my friends don't understand why i don't like going to clubs with them (all 6"0 plus)

 

[LudwigsDrummer]

Exactly. My thoughts on almost every post this nut publishes. My money says "IT" is a SF troll from the ESPN boards that are being crap canned in a week.

Which ESPN troll were ya?[/quote]

He is a troll, basically admitted it in the Lynch DUI thread and Absolute banned him.[/quote][/quote]

There was a troll on another forum who just could not leave the Lynch problem alone. His posting sounds exactly the same. If banned he will resurface under a diffenent handle as this loser has experienced it often.

 

[therealsm]

ESPN asked "What quarterback is most likely to get to the Super Bowl? Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson?" Go to ESPN.com and search "pizza hut" (the segment is sponsored by Pizza Hut) to vote.

 

[DavidSeven]

Once again, stats don't tell the entire story. Luck played behind one of the worst OL's in the league.

Aaron Rodgers played behind the worst OL in the league (took more sacks than any NFL starting QB) and destroyed Luck in almost every meaningful passing stat.

I'm not saying I expect Luck to be nearly as great as Rodgers, but if the Rodgers' standard equals AWESOME, then where does that put Luck? No one was giving Kevin Kolb a pass when he was playing behind a terrible line and virtually no run-game, and he actually put up better efficiency numbers than Luck. Why is Luck getting a pass?

 

[muxpux]

What does Luck have over Wilson? Well the same number of regular season wins with a much, much worse team.

Heresy though.. I'll be burnt at the stake.

Colts- 2008 12-4
2009 14-2
2010 10-6
2011 2-14 drafted luck
2012 11-5
It obvious they sucked for luck other than loosing Peyton that team has been the same. Yeah Seahawks are better but not by a lot. The colts had 1 bad year and they are said to be aweful. I don't buy in to that. Luck is good and they finished 11-5, they are not much much worse than us. It's not like Wilson only runs play action. He drops back runs around and makes every throw.

thank you. everyone talks about Indy as if the whole team was dismantled.