Probabilities of our first pick

[NoGain]

I am confused by that if the media underestimates how high coaches and GMs value top QBs wouldn't they be picked earlier than the media predict. Last year Ridder Willis and Corral were expected to go in Round 1 or 2 but all dropped to round 3. In a similar vain I expect Levis and Richardson to drop below where the media are predicting at least those predicting 4 QBs in the top 5.

Maybe I wasn't clear in the right way based upon my understanding of your statement. In the case of Levis and Anderson, go back in time a bit. The media in aggregate was way late to the party on those two. It was hard to find anyone touting either of those two as a potential top 5 pick a year ago. The media are only now beginning to catch up to where GM's/scouts were valuing these guys.

In the case of Mahomes, the overall media had him barely a first round pick, and more likely a later than first round pick. Then the Chiefs trade up to grab him at #10.

 

[chrispy]

I disagree. I think the chances of Arizona trading the pick are greater than them staying put. They have too many holes to fill. I think they'd love to trade down. That's why I currently have Anderson as the most likely pick for Seattle.

You could be right. Lots up in the air....

Gannon, new Head Coach in AZ, ran Philly's D last season. His DLine: Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, Javon Hargrave, Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, Linval Joseph, Ndamukong Suh and Milton Williams. This article describes AZs desperation at DLine:

Cardinals offseason needs: Defensive line

We take a look at the state of the defensive line as free agency begins.

cardswire.usatoday.com

Basically only 4 players left from their 9 DLs from last season including loss of JJ Watt.

If I were him, I'd take the best player in the draft at a constant position of need to build around for 5-10 years. Trading down might fill more holes sooner, but there's a lot of risk if you miss. I think Anderson is the only consensus can't miss player this year. New head coaches think they know more than everyone else sometimes so he may get fancy. If it were me, there's no shame in taking the obvious choice.

 

[TeamoftheCentury]

How about Gibbs from Alabama?

Gibbs is capable of running between the tackles and also catching the ball on a wheel route, or, can be lined up in the slot as well.

I’d welcome Gibbs as well.

I wouldn't kick him out of the Seahawks bed.

 

[bileever]

If you're talking probabilities, then you've got to go where the money is, Las Vegas. Here is what the bookies are saying about the odds for the Seahawks' pick at number 5:

Will Anderson Jr., Edge	Alabama	+175	36.4%
Tyree Wilson, Edge	Texas Tech	+225	30.8%
Jalen Carter, DL	Georgia	+275	26.7%
Christian Gonzalez, CB	Oregon	+500	16.7%

How do you like them numbers, huh? I found these at bookes.com:

Seattle Seahawks NFL Draft Odds: Defense First At No. 5?

The Seattle Seahawks have a lot of options, especially on the defensive side of the ball, when they select at No. 5 in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

bookies.com

 

[CactusJack]

Whats your top 10 (or however many) of RBs in this draft? Asking primarily about "tier 2" RBs in my model.
I look at it as 4 tiers of RBs in the draft?

1 - Bijian Robinson, head and shoulders above
2 - Other RBs I don't know about who could be good NFL RB1s (e.g., Roschon Johnson, who else?)
3 - Other RBs who could be rotational/3rd down/Special teamers, e.g., DJ Dallas
4 - RBs who are "good" but not quite good enough to stick on an NFL roster

K9 was the one RB I hoped the Hawks would get last year, especially after they passed on Jonathan Taylor a few years back.

Jahmyr Gibbs is an Alvin Kamara like RB. Will probably be taken at the end of Round 1. He's dynamic both as a runner & pass catcher.

Zach Charbonnet is a bigger back. He's not quite as dynamic as the other two. But can be a #1 RB & workhorse. He'll likely get taken in Round 2.

Some other names are Kendre Miller (TCU) & Tyjae Spears (Tulane). Both are potential starters. I think Miller could be very good. Aaron Jones type. Spears is smaller. But a gifted runner.

I also think Roschon is the most underrated guy in this class. He's viewed as more of a #2. But I think he could start for teams. He's a bigger back. He reminds me a lot of Chris Carson. I would take him in the 3rd Round.

Devon Achane is on the smaller side. Listed at 5'8'' & less than 200lbs. Because of his size, I see him more as like a change of pace back. He's not someone who is likely to hold up with a large workload. He's very shifty as a runner.

Tier 1: Bijan, Gibbs

Tier 2: Charbonnet, Roschon, Miller, Achane, Spears

 

[Jegpeg]

If you're talking probabilities, then you've got to go where the money is, Las Vegas. Here is what the bookies are saying about the odds for the Seahawks' pick at number 5:

Will Anderson Jr., Edge	Alabama	+175	36.4%
Tyree Wilson, Edge	Texas Tech	+225	30.8%
Jalen Carter, DL	Georgia	+275	26.7%
Christian Gonzalez, CB	Oregon	+500	16.7%

How do you like them numbers, huh? I found these at bookes.com:

Seattle Seahawks NFL Draft Odds: Defense First At No. 5?

The Seattle Seahawks have a lot of options, especially on the defensive side of the ball, when they select at No. 5 in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

bookies.com

Looks reasonable except for I don't think Anderson will be around at 5. I am also not sure what happens to a bet on "who the seahawks will select at 5" if the Seahawks trade and do not select at 5.

 

[James in PA]

If you're talking probabilities, then you've got to go where the money is, Las Vegas. Here is what the bookies are saying about the odds for the Seahawks' pick at number 5:

Will Anderson Jr., Edge	Alabama	+175	36.4%
Tyree Wilson, Edge	Texas Tech	+225	30.8%
Jalen Carter, DL	Georgia	+275	26.7%
Christian Gonzalez, CB	Oregon	+500	16.7%

How do you like them numbers, huh? I found these at bookes.com:

Seattle Seahawks NFL Draft Odds: Defense First At No. 5?

The Seattle Seahawks have a lot of options, especially on the defensive side of the ball, when they select at No. 5 in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

bookies.com

Thanks for this! So, Vegas agrees with me that our most likely selection will be Will Anderson! Im sure that would make quite a few here happy.

 

[bileever]

Looks reasonable except for I don't think Anderson will be around at 5. I am also not sure what happens to a bet on "who the seahawks will select at 5" if the Seahawks trade and do not select at 5.

Yeah, I don't quite get it, but Vegas must know something that we don't.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Yeah, I don't quite get it, but Vegas must know something that we don't.

Vegas knows historically teams over value QB's, and therefore I'm sure the top four odds are 1-4 Young, Stroud, Richardson and Levis.

Or some variation of that order.

That leaves Anderson at 5.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Yeah, I don't quite get it, but Vegas must know something that we don't.

They probably don't know much, considering Christian Gonzalez being 4th in odds.

 

[bileever]

Vegas knows historically teams over value QB's, and therefore I'm sure the top four odds are 1-4 Young, Stroud, Richardson and Levis.

Or some variation of that order.

That leaves Anderson at 5.

You may be right. It must be better than 50-50 that some team will trade for the Cardinals' number 3 pick to get a QB

 

[Sgt. Largent]

You may be right. It must be better than 50-50 that some team will trade for the Cardinals' number 3 pick to get a QB

It'll depend on the direction you think the Colts are going.

They've also been coy about who they like. So if you're the Raiders, Titans, Falcons, etc and know for a fact that the Cardinals aren't drafting a QB and the Colts are drafting Levis, and you want Richardson?

Then why use more draft capital getting into the #3 spot when you can either wait until you pick, or use less draft capital to get into our spot, or Detroit's spot.

Lots of variables here, that's for sure.

 

[Ozzy]

Even if Arizona trades out, you still have to hope the Colts pick Levis, and that's not a sure thing either.

Only way we get Anderson is if all four QB's go 1-4.

Possible, but still not likely.

I think Levis is gone before we pick. It's not a lock but I'd bet money on it. I can't decide if Levis or Richardson goes first. I think it depends on the situation. Levis can come in and play immediately I think which might give a team like the Colts a reason to take him

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I think Levis is gone before we pick. It's not a lock but I'd bet money on it. I can't decide if Levis or Richardson goes first. I think it depends on the situation. Levis can come in and play immediately I think which might give a team like the Colts a reason to take him

I do think the Colts are targeting Levis. Seems like their kind of dude, safe, big arm, can play from day one far more than Richardson.

But that proves my point for everyone wishing one of the teams behind us trades up with the Cardinals to get Richardson. Why would they do that if they also think the Colts are picking Levis?

I absolutely HATE that the stupid Cardinals are going to get the best defensive player in the draft, and all because the even stupider Colts lost to the Texans.

 

[Hawkinaz]

According to my sources, a new name has emerged, rocketing up the Seahawks draft boards. Lukas Van Ness, linebacker from Iowa.

Apparently Schneider and Carroll really loved talking with this young man and were blown away from his tape.

Back to you in the studio

@5 A popular pick is Wilson it wouldn’t surprise me to see Van Ness drafted they are comparable players both play DE. Van Ness had a very good win rate and both players best pass rush move is a bull rush with Van Ness having a spin move

i am not counting on any crazy trades to happen in the top 4 with Arizona probably picking Anderson but you never know how Arizona has rated him. There always seems to be a surprise pick somewhere in the top 10. Last year it was when Houston selected Stingley Jr

 

[James in PA]

The latest hot rumor has the Tennessee Flamin' Thumbtacks trying to trade up to #3 for one of the QB's.

This draft can't get here fast enough.

 

[massari]

The latest hot rumor has the Tennessee Flamin' Thumbtacks trying to trade up to #3 for one of the QB's.

This draft can't get here fast enough.

That's just a smokescreen from the Titans to screw over the Colts, am I right?

 

[James in PA]

That's just a smokescreen from the Titans to screw over the Colts, am I right?

You would think so. They just drafted Malik Willis last year. It would already be admitting they screwed up.

 

[massari]

You would think so. They just drafted Malik Willis last year. It would already be admitting they screwed up.

The Panthers also drafted a QB in the 3rd round last year, but still traded up.

I'm guessing the Cards would probably want Jeffery Simmons and a couple of 1sts

 

[James in PA]

Here's where I'm at with about a week and a half to go. Two players have clearly separated themselves:

Jalen Carter - 50%: Despite the red flags, he's too good and he satisfies a major need. Most importantly, the odds of anyone taking him before 5 seem pretty low, but skyrocket immediately afterwards. Five is a perfect slot for him.

Will Anderson - 30%: My previous front runner to be a Seahawk. He now gets knocked down to 2nd place only because he has been linked to 2 teams ahead of us: Houston and Arizona. If both of them can't find trade partners, he's likely gone.

Anthony Richardson - 10%: If he's still there at 5, he's still in play. Also, the news that Houston is seemingly willing to trade number 2 still makes him a possibility. Seattle and Houston would be ideal trade partners. But does Seattle truly love him as a prospect? Only time will tell.

Other - 10%: So you're telling me there's a chance for guys like Tyree Wilson, JSN, Bijan, and Witherspoon? Yes, but these seem like players who would all be a reach at 5 and I don't see Seattle trading away this rare opportunity.