Probabilities of our first pick

[James in PA]

There's already a thread asking us to rank who we *want* the Hawks to take with their first draft pick. So, how about one where we rank who we *think* they'll actually take.

Here is how I'd currently rank the players, in order of probability. A week from now, my rankings might be totally different.

1) Will Anderson Jr. - 40%: I do think Arizona trades down with a team lower than us, such as the Raiders. Zona has a lot of holes to fill. If this happens, Anderson to Seattle would be nearly a slam dunk, IMO.

2) Jalen Carter - 20%: My opinion of how Seattle views him changes from day to day. Just a few days ago, he would have easily been 1 on my list. Yesterday, I would have had him lower than my current rank.

3) Anthony Richardson - 20%: I get the impression that he's more of a fan favorite while Levis is more liked by NFL GM's. Therefore, if one of the big 4 QB is still sitting there at 5, I think it will be Richardson.

4) Will Levis - 10%: Certainly there's a chance a team picking before us likes Richardson more than Levis.

5) Tyree Wilson - 5%: This is where I differ from most mocks, which have us taking him. He has those freakish measurables that Pete likes, so it's certainly a possibility. I just don't think the chances of us taking him are nearly as great as the mocks would suggest.

6) Other - 5%: While it seems like out first pick would have to be one of the aforementioned players, I've learned to expect the unexpected with Pete and John. Perhaps someone will make them an offer they can't refuse and they trade down, missing out on all the aforementioned players.

Anyway, that is my list and I'm sticking to it (at least until tomorrow).

 

[Hockey Guy]

How many of these "who do we draft at 5" threads do we need?

 

[ImTheScientist]

How many of these "who do we draft at 5" threads do we need?

At least one more apparently.

 

[seatownlowdown]

How many of these "who do we draft at 5" threads do we need?

how bout you stop watching me when i'm rosterbating?

 

[Hockey Guy]

how bout you stop watching me when i'm rosterbating?

I'm afraid to even ask what that means.

 

[CPHawk]

How many of these "who do we draft at 5" threads do we need?

Between now and draft day?

20+- 50% chance
15 20%

 

[James in PA]

weisenheimers!

 

[QWERTY]

Why isnt this on the Draft thread instead.

 

[massari]

Will Anderson 49%
Young/Stroud/Richardson/Levis 49%
Trade down 2%

 

[onanygivensunday]

weisenheimers!

You, Wienerschnitzel, you.

God damn, I love these name calling episodes.

 

[Mick063]

Call me crazy, but the free agent signings are leaning more and more toward a running back on day one of the draft. (Follow the clues left behind by who they let go and who they have signed). Not necessarily at #5 or even at #20, but at the appropriate spot after some draft day repositioning. There is a dearth of competent roster talent at the position right now. The team is now a pulled hamstring away from a running game disaster.

I'm thinking they have fallen for a running back. All of the clues are pointing in that direction. They have enough draft capital to enable getting to the right draft position without sacrificing the 5th overall pick as well.

 

[chris98251]

They certainly have solidified Safety, got a MLB, Center, although that may be upgraded, Dline but we still need a Big Butt run clogger NT. RB is our biggest hole as far as a platoon guy and depth Dallas is pretty good but we need a guy that can carry it if necessary.

RB
DT
LB
DE
Center

Not by round but greatest Need I think at this point.

 

[GGotskill]

They certainly have solidified Safety, got a MLB, Center, although that may be upgraded, Dline but we still need a Big Butt run clogger NT. RB is our biggest hole as far as a platoon guy and depth Dallas is pretty good but we need a guy that can carry it if necessary.

RB
DT
LB
DE
Center

Not by round but greatest Need I think at this point.

I would put LB above RB at this point.

 

[GGotskill]

Call me crazy, but the free agent signings are leaning more and more toward a running back on day one of the draft. (Follow the clues left behind by who they let go and who they have signed).

Hardly. They try to shore up their roster before the draft every year, so there are no major holes. They just have more cap space to work with than usual.

They will draft a RB, just not in the first round. I would bet a dollar on it.

 

[Jerhawk]

According to my sources, a new name has emerged, rocketing up the Seahawks draft boards. Lukas Van Ness, linebacker from Iowa.

Apparently Schneider and Carroll really loved talking with this young man and were blown away from his tape.

Back to you in the studio

 

[James in PA]

At less than 4 weeks away, I'm more uncertain of who we're drafting with our first pick than when I started this thread. I'm less confident now about us drafting Carter. Here are my current probabilities of who we'll draft with our first pick:

Will Anderson Jr. - 25%: This would obviously require the Cards to trade down with someone other than Indy. I still think there's a pretty good chance of this happening.

Anthony Richardson - 20%

Will Levis - 20%

Tyree Wilson - 15%

Jalen Carter - 10%

Other - 10%

 

[GemCity]

All I know percentage wise is that if we trade up, I’m 99% sure dudes going to be 100% beast. But, there is a 93.5% chance that doesn’t happen if the 75% chance that LV trades trades up to take a 50% chance on Richardson.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

I currently been wanting Seattle to draft Bijan Robinson, so my preference is to trade down.

I think a Robinson and Walker tandem would be insane!

 

[CactusJack]

I currently been wanting Seattle to draft Bijan Robinson, so my preference is to trade down.

I think a Robinson and Walker tandem would be insane!

This draft is so deep at RB.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

How many of these "who do we draft at 5" threads do we need?

And it's only April 3rd. I put the over/under at 27 more threads before draft day. All about what the Hawks will do in the 1st round.