NFL Turning Point TV

[zchurch74]

Not sure if anyone caught this weeks show on the NFL network. They went over the pick six in this last weeks game. An interesting point that stood out is how the Seahawks ran the exact same play in the preseason as they did on the pic six play last week. It made me wonder why we are playing the same teams in the regular season as we did the preseason. I understand every team has access to all game film and studies it profusely. But actually playing the same team and running the same play calls as you did in preseason game seems kind of odd.

 

[Seymour]

Any team is going to know all our (most I should say) plays. Pete is pretty candid about this, in fact I've heard him say "we're not going to fool people, we are going to do what we do". In other words, Pete doesn't care they know what is coming and he's said that.

 

[Scorpion05]

I think we can all agree that no matter what you think of Wilson as a Quarterback, Pick Sixes by him are rare. Yes?? Okay

So, with that in mind, this year alone Wilson has had two pick sixes. TWO. Which by any trend is uncharacteristic. In both scenarios, the defense KNEW what was coming through film study. Wilson deserves some blame sure, but given that Wilson Never usually throws these kinds of interceptions, it does make me put at least half, if not most of this on Schotty.

Granted, Wilson is also having the best start to his career. But stuff like this makes me wonder if we’ll ever win it all under Schotty’s offense. Or, will we make it far only to have one of these predictable plays bite us in the ass

 

[evergreen]

Don’t be so quick to give Wilson a pass. He was a stink bomb out there. He killer two drives with terrible misses to open receivers. And of course ran back or tight into some sacks. That was bad Wilson out there last week. He did shake it off and showed up for the last few minutes. Best start of his career doesn’t pass the eye test though.

 

[knownone]

I think we can all agree that no matter what you think of Wilson as a Quarterback, Pick Sixes by him are rare. Yes?? Okay

So, with that in mind, this year alone Wilson has had two pick sixes. TWO. Which by any trend is uncharacteristic. In both scenarios, the defense KNEW what was coming through film study. Wilson deserves some blame sure, but given that Wilson Never usually throws these kinds of interceptions, it does make me put at least half, if not most of this on Schotty.

Granted, Wilson is also having the best start to his career. But stuff like this makes me wonder if we’ll ever win it all under Schotty’s offense. Or, will we make it far only to have one of these predictable plays bite us in the ass

Your argument is a form of selection bias. If Schottenheimer's play calling was predictable and the defense knew where Wilson was going with the ball more often than in previous seasons it would show up in his total interceptions. Why? Because schematically the only difference between a play ending in an interception or an interception that leads to a score is, well, the score. So, if Wilsons INTs are not up relative to other years, then what meaningful conclusion can you derive from the trend of Wilson throwing 2 pick sixes this season? None.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Well Evergreen, he had a bad game, but I also remember the D getting shredded and having their own Stink Bomb on Sunday. TEAM loss.

 

[Scorpion05]

I think we can all agree that no matter what you think of Wilson as a Quarterback, Pick Sixes by him are rare. Yes?? Okay

So, with that in mind, this year alone Wilson has had two pick sixes. TWO. Which by any trend is uncharacteristic. In both scenarios, the defense KNEW what was coming through film study. Wilson deserves some blame sure, but given that Wilson Never usually throws these kinds of interceptions, it does make me put at least half, if not most of this on Schotty.

Granted, Wilson is also having the best start to his career. But stuff like this makes me wonder if we’ll ever win it all under Schotty’s offense. Or, will we make it far only to have one of these predictable plays bite us in the ass

Your argument is a form of selection bias. If Schottenheimer's play calling was predictable and the defense knew where Wilson was going with the ball more often than in previous seasons it would show up in his total interceptions. Why? Because schematically the only difference between a play ending in an interception or an interception that leads to a score is, well, the score. So, if Wilsons INTs are not up relative to other years, then what meaningful conclusion can you derive from the trend of Wilson throwing 2 pick sixes this season? None.

Selective Bias? I’ve acknowledged that under Schotty, statistically Wilson is having the best start to his career. I’m also acknowledging those are poor throws.

At the same time, coaches put their players in a good position to win. To make the right play. If I say “Hey, Wilson is doing something for the first time in his career under a new O-coordinator,” why is that a negative? I can argue that in some ways Schotty has helped Russ, and in other ways hampered him. Those two play designs for the pick sixes were poor(imo) and OBVIOUSLY predictable according to the defensive players who knew the play was coming. I don’t see why that’s so hard to acknowledge. Russ has never been a turnover machine, and analysts on Field Gulls and elsewhere have pointed out that interceptions have historically gone up under Schotty

 

[knownone]

I think we can all agree that no matter what you think of Wilson as a Quarterback, Pick Sixes by him are rare. Yes?? Okay

So, with that in mind, this year alone Wilson has had two pick sixes. TWO. Which by any trend is uncharacteristic. In both scenarios, the defense KNEW what was coming through film study. Wilson deserves some blame sure, but given that Wilson Never usually throws these kinds of interceptions, it does make me put at least half, if not most of this on Schotty.

Granted, Wilson is also having the best start to his career. But stuff like this makes me wonder if we’ll ever win it all under Schotty’s offense. Or, will we make it far only to have one of these predictable plays bite us in the ass

Your argument is a form of selection bias. If Schottenheimer's play calling was predictable and the defense knew where Wilson was going with the ball more often than in previous seasons it would show up in his total interceptions. Why? Because schematically the only difference between a play ending in an interception or an interception that leads to a score is, well, the score. So, if Wilsons INTs are not up relative to other years, then what meaningful conclusion can you derive from the trend of Wilson throwing 2 pick sixes this season? None.

Selective Bias? I’ve acknowledged that under Schotty, statistically Wilson is having the best start to his career. I’m also acknowledging those are poor throws.

At the same time, coaches put their players in a good position to win. To make the right play. If I say “Hey, Wilson is doing something for the first time in his career under a new O-coordinator,” why is that a negative? I can argue that in some ways Schotty has helped Russ, and in other ways hampered him. Those two play designs for the pick sixes were poor(imo) and OBVIOUSLY predictable according to the defensive players who knew the play was coming. I don’t see why that’s so hard to acknowledge. Russ has never been a turnover machine, and analysts on Field Gulls and elsewhere have pointed out that interceptions have historically gone up under Schotty

I apologize if I came off abrasively, I didn't realize how impersonal my post was when I hit submit. I spend almost every waking hour working with and analyzing data so I have a tendency to micro-analyze things.

I don't have any problem with your opinion or analysis of Schotty or Wilson, I don't necessarily agree, but I understand where you are coming from. What bothers me is the data used to draw those conclusions doesn't necessarily fit the narrative being presented. In this case, you've kind of covered all your bases and you're not really blaming Schotty or Wilson so I can't really fault your logic because you are not drawing any conclusions.

I will say though, It's really easy to find confirmation for any theory if you are looking for it. Field Gulls and most of these "analytics" blog(s) posts are guilty of this. Field Gulls, for instance, had a post up yesterday regarding the Seahawks predictability on 2nd down. The headline "Are the Brian Schottenheimer Seahawks too predictable on 2nd down" ignoring the obvious narrative bias, the analysis consisted of a fairly elementary break down of the Seahawks run to pass ratio on 2nd down. Which is fine, but then they drew the conclusion that Schottenheimer is extra-predictable on 2nd down, which their data does not and cannot prove.