NFL Playoff Wildcard Round Discussion

[Hawk-Lock]

From a pure fan perspective, not a very intriguing first round of the NFL playoffs. The QBs for your WC round will include mediocre names of Teddy Bridgewater, AJ McCarron, Brian Hoyer, Alex Smith, and Kirk Cousins.

Another interesting note is that all the road teams except for the Packers are favored. I think that shows just how good some of these WC teams are and how weak some of these division winners are.

If Dalton were playing the Pitt/Cinci game would be must watch TV. I think the KC/Houston game has a chance to be really good.

 

[iigakusei]

For me I actually find it very intriguing for exactly the reasons you mentioned.
I think all 3 of the games (besides ours of course) are truly a coin flip.
You might not have the top QB's slinging the ball around all day but I do think they are 3 interesting matchups with no clear cut favourites.

 

[Polaris]

For me I actually find it very intriguing for exactly the reasons you mentioned.
I think all 3 of the games (besides ours of course) are truly a coin flip.
You might not have the top QB's slinging the ball around all day but I do think they are 3 interesting matchups with no clear cut favourites.

I beg to differ. I actually suspect this is going to be a fairly boring wilcard weekend, and I fully expect the road teams to dominate. Some of the division champs are just that....problematic.

Let's look at the match ups:

KC@Houston: Alex Smith may not be a flashy QB [and I think the term 'game-manager' can be safely applied to him], but he is a solid veteran QB and KC is playing consistently well and have been for months. The Texans are really a one-note team. They have an awesome front seven and a legit secondary, and an utter disaster for an offense. I don't see the Texans winning this one; in fact I'd be surprised if KC doesn't win this one by double digits.

Pittsburgh@Cincy: If Dalton were the QB, this might be a close and interesting game, but we saw this game just a few weeks ago (not very long at all) and Pittsburgh has gotten better and Cincy really hasn't. This will be a single score game, but I don't think the outcome will really be in doubt. Pittsburgh will move on.

Packers@Washington: This is the coin flip game IMHO. The Packers are playing poorly especially w/r/t their offensive line and Aaron Rodgers is showing the effects. That and Washington has played much better of late and it's at home for Washington. That said, this is Aaron Rodgers we're talking about...... and he can get smoking hot at any time. I actually think Washington wins this one, but I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't.

Seattle@Minnesota: We saw this one almost exactly a month ago and if anything Seattle is actually better now (with Lynch coming back) than they were then, and Minny still hasn't beaten anyone [I don't count week 17 Green Bay who is clearly a mere shadow of their former selves]. It may not be the 38-7 blowout like last time, but Seattle will win this one fairly comfortably (by double digits at least I expect). Seattle is a very bad match-up for Minnesota because Minny relies on their run game and AP to mask an experienced QB prone to make mistakes....and Seattle is extremely stout against the run.

 

[Hawk-Lock]

They have a chance to be close and competitive games, but I just don't expect them to be all that great. It's probably the weakest grouping of teams in the wild card round that I can remember in a long time. IMO the Skins, Texans, Vikings, Bengals (without Dalton), and Packers just aren't that good. Even the Steelers aren't all that, but everyone hypes them up because of their QB and offense.

I think the 2nd round has a chance to be really good. But other than it being the playoffs, it's hard to get real excited for some of these games.

 

[marko358]

BTW, Washington picked up Cary Williams today.

 

[Polaris]

BTW, Washington picked up Cary Williams today.

Well.....I think the Packers chances this weekend just went up.

 

[Overseasfan]

Bengals vs Steelers would have been a great game if Andy Dalton was able to play. KC vs Houston and Wash vs GB don't really look like play-off worthy match-ups.

Seahawks vs Vikes could be the best game of the 4 if the Vikes are able to land tackles and catch passes this time. It's more likely that we'll have to wait till the divisional for the really good games though.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Bengals vs Steelers would have been a great game if Andy Dalton was able to play. KC vs Houston and Wash vs GB don't really look like play-off worthy match-ups..

I still think the Cincy game will be good.

The Bengals and McCarron are playing better than 3 weeks ago when the Steelers beat them at home..........and the Steelers are playing worse, and will probably be without Williams.

I also think the Texans are going to give the Chiefs a run for their money. Texans D is solid, and Chiefs offense is pretty plain vanilla. That means they're not going to run away from the Texans. Should be close til the end.

 

[Hawk-Lock]

Bengals vs Steelers would have been a great game if Andy Dalton was able to play. KC vs Houston and Wash vs GB don't really look like play-off worthy match-ups..

I still think the Cincy game will be good.

The Bengals and McCarron are playing better than 3 weeks ago when the Steelers beat them at home..........and the Steelers are playing worse, and will probably be without Williams.

I also think the Texans are going to give the Chiefs a run for their money. Texans D is solid, and Chiefs offense is pretty plain vanilla. That means they're not going to run away from the Texans. Should be close til the end.

I agree. Being a divisional game, this game shouldn't be decided by more than a TD, especially if Pitt is without DeAngelo Williams. I don't care how much McCaronn stinks, that Cinci offense should still be able to put up at least 21 points on a bad Pitt defense.

 

[Popeyejones]

From a pure fan perspective, not a very intriguing first round of the NFL playoffs. The QBs for your WC round will include mediocre names of Teddy Bridgewater, AJ McCarron, Brian Hoyer, Alex Smith, and Kirk Cousins.

While you weren't paying attention this year Cousins completed 70% of his passes for over 4K yards, 29 TDs and 11 Ints (a remarkably similar year passing the ball to Russell Wilson), and has really just been on fire for the past month or so.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

From a pure fan perspective, not a very intriguing first round of the NFL playoffs. The QBs for your WC round will include mediocre names of Teddy Bridgewater, AJ McCarron, Brian Hoyer, Alex Smith, and Kirk Cousins.

While you weren't paying attention this year Cousins completed 70% of his passes for over 4K yards, 29 TDs and 11 Ints (a remarkably similar year passing the ball to Russell Wilson), and has really just been on fire for the past month or so.

Cousins has been accurate, but the only two good teams the Skins have played the past 10 weeks is the Panthers and Patriots, of which they got destroyed in both and Cousins was mediocre at best. He barely had 200 yards passing in each game.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Skins will beat the Packers, but that's it. Arizona should roll them like a passed out wino in the hot sun.

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^ Yeah, and Russell WIlson's four best games this year came against four of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.

So what, though?

I was simply objecting to Cousins being mediocre this year, as through the air he's really shockingly similar to Wilson on the year (Cousins has a bit higher completion % and yards and a few less TDs and more INTs).

I don't think either of them have had mediocre years passing the ball.

FWIW I think in the two thirds of the season he actually played Hoyer has had a pretty nice year too.

(one of the problems with evaluating all of these guys is that passing stats have become so inflated over the past X years that we need to readjust up what "great" "good" and "average" are, just as we need to readjust down what "great" "good" and "average" rushing seasons are).

 

[Ramfan128]

I think you'd be foolish to expect the Seahawks to roll the Vikings again in Minnesota. I think that one will be a toss up.

 

[Popeyejones]

I think you'd be foolish to expect the Seahawks to roll the Vikings again in Minnesota. I think that one will be a toss up.

If or when the Hawks lose it will be the fault of the refs, so it doesn't much matter anyway.

Personally I think the Hawks (this year and at this point) are as good as any other team in the NFL, but unlike years past, aren't clearly better than every other team in the NFL.

Really no way to know in any week if you're going to get the team that blew out the vikings on the road or the team that lost to the Rams at home.

I do think that traveling and winning against playoff teams for three weeks in a row just isn't easy for any team, though. It has been done before and will be done again, but there's a reason that it doesn't happen that much.

 

[Polaris]

I think you'd be foolish to expect the Seahawks to roll the Vikings again in Minnesota. I think that one will be a toss up.

Don't know why you'd think that with any objective analysis of the evidence. Bridgewater is a young, inconsistent QB behind a disaster of an O-line (at least in pass pro) that depends on a solid run game by AP for what little offense they have. The Vikings have a good defense but honestly neither the Vikings nor Packers looked good at all this last Sunday.

Now factor in that Seattle runs the ball well AND has one of the best run defenses in all the NFL.....and Wilson is playing out of his mind. When you do match-up to match-up, other than RB, I don't see where Minny gets the advantage.

I am not predicting a blowout, but Seattle should win this game and win it fairly comfortably.

 

[Ramfan128]

I think you'd be foolish to expect the Seahawks to roll the Vikings again in Minnesota. I think that one will be a toss up.

Don't know why you'd think that with any objective analysis of the evidence. Bridgewater is a young, inconsistent QB behind a disaster of an O-line (at least in pass pro) that depends on a solid run game by AP for what little offense they have. The Vikings have a good defense but honestly neither the Vikings nor Packers looked good at all this last Sunday.

Now factor in that Seattle runs the ball well AND has one of the best run defenses in all the NFL.....and Wilson is playing out of his mind. When you do match-up to match-up, other than RB, I don't see where Minny gets the advantage.

I am not predicting a blowout, but Seattle should win this game and win it fairly comfortably.

Seattle's offensive line is capable of playing like the absolute worst in the NFL.

Minnesota's defense is capable of playing at a top 10 level, and it sounds like they'll be getting some players back.

And Minnesota is at home.


I wouldn't pick the Vikings to win outright but I think it'll be a one score game. Factor in too that the Vikings will know they have to ramp up their game as they got blown out by Seattle before. Really wouldn't surprise me if the Vikings won.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

I love how suddenly, 'knowing they have to play better' is some kind of advantage for the Vikings.

They got their asses well and truly kicked by the Seahawks in one of the more one-sided thrashings in the entire NFL this season -- but let's ignore that. The Vikings 'know' they have to play better. So now it'll be close.

Did they go into the last game unaware of their need to play well against a Super Bowl caliber team at home?

It's classic nonsense. Doesn't mean the Vikings can't win -- but the fact they got hammered last time only presents the fact the Seahawks are well and truly the better team. Which is, you know, kind of an advantage.

 

[Polaris]

I think you'd be foolish to expect the Seahawks to roll the Vikings again in Minnesota. I think that one will be a toss up.

Don't know why you'd think that with any objective analysis of the evidence. Bridgewater is a young, inconsistent QB behind a disaster of an O-line (at least in pass pro) that depends on a solid run game by AP for what little offense they have. The Vikings have a good defense but honestly neither the Vikings nor Packers looked good at all this last Sunday.

Now factor in that Seattle runs the ball well AND has one of the best run defenses in all the NFL.....and Wilson is playing out of his mind. When you do match-up to match-up, other than RB, I don't see where Minny gets the advantage.

I am not predicting a blowout, but Seattle should win this game and win it fairly comfortably.

Seattle's offensive line is capable of playing like the absolute worst in the NFL.

Minnesota's defense is capable of playing at a top 10 level, and it sounds like they'll be getting some players back.

And Minnesota is at home.


I wouldn't pick the Vikings to win outright but I think it'll be a one score game. Factor in too that the Vikings will know they have to ramp up their game as they got blown out by Seattle before. Really wouldn't surprise me if the Vikings won.

This isn't neutral and objective analysis. Look at the DVOA for both teams and the DPYAR for both MIN and SEA and tell me who is the better team. [Hint: It's the one that blew the doors off the other only a month ago.]

EDIT PS: And as for O-Line, Minnesota's O-Line is actually playing *worse* right now that Seattle's....or did you miss Sunday Night's game?

 

[OrFan]

The only game I see being close at all is the Packers vs Redscums.

Other than the game mentioned above, the road teams should all win easily.

 

[ilikedlargent]

Chiefs
Steelers
Packers
Vikings