Hit/Miss on QBs by round 2000-2010

[Rat]

I got tired of hearing people say you don’t need to draft a QB in the first round because Brady was a 6th rounder, Russell Wilson went in the 3rd, etc. I was curious about the hit/miss rate for QBs taken recently, so I looked at every draft from 2000-2020 to see. I didn’t include anyone from the last two years because I think that’s too early to make a judgment, although a number of those players have been cut from the team that drafted him, and it’s probably safe to call guys like Zach Wilson a bust. This list is strictly franchise QBs, I didn’t list guys who became quality backups as “successes”. This is also strictly for the team that drafted them. Like Geno Smith killed it with the Seahawks last season, but the Jets didn’t invest a second round pick and 30 starts, just for him to figure it out a decade later with a different team.

Some of these are based on my personal opinions and could be a bit debatable.


First Round

Successes
Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones (debatable)
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
DeShaun Watson
Jared Goff
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford (debatable)
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith (debatable)
Aaron Rodgers
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Carson Palmer
Michael Vick
Chad Pennington

Failures
Jordan Love
Dwayne Haskins
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz (debatable)
Paxton Lynch
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
EJ Manuel
Ryan Tannehill (debatable)
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Tim Tebow
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Jamarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Vince Young (debatable)
Matt Leinart
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey

Success Rate: 25 of 59 (42.4%)

Second Round

Successes
Jalen Hurts
Derek Carr
Jimmy Garoppolo (debatable)
Andy Dalton
Colin Kaepernick
Drew Brees (32nd pick)

Failures
Drew Lock
DeShone Kizer
Christian Hackenberg
Geno Smith
Brock Oswelier
Jimmy Clausen
Pat White
Brian Brohm
Chad Henne
Kevin Kolb
John Beck
Drew Stanton
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasasopo

Success Rate: 6 of 22 (27.2%)

Third Round

Successes
Russell Wilson
Matt Schaub

Failures
Will Grier
Mason Rudolph
Davis Webb
C.J. Beathard
Jacoby Brissett
Cody Kessler
Garrett Grayson
Sean Mannion
Mike Glennon
Nick Foles (very debatable)
Ryan Mallett
Terrelle Pryor
Colt McCoy
Kevin O’Connell
Trent Edwards
Charlie Whitehurst
Brodie Croyle
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms
Josh McCown
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman

It’s telling that Russell Wilson was the most recent third-round pick to become a franchise QB, and that was 11 drafts ago. Some might list Foles as a success, but while that postseason run was magical, and obviously nobody in Philadelphia regrets that pick, Foles was not a franchise QB and was eventually used as a throw-in in a trade to acquire Sam Bradford. It’s telling that he has switched teams six times in 11 years, and he was awful for most of them.

Success Rate: 2 of 27 (10.7%)

Round Four

Successes
Dak Prescott
Kirk Cousins
Kyle Orton
David Garrard

Failures
Jacob Eason
James Morgan
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Kyle Lauletta
Joshua Dobbs
Conner Cook
Cardale Jones
Bryce Petty
Logan Thomas
Tom Savage
Matt Barkley
Ryan Nassib
Tyler Wilson
Landry Jones
Mike Kafka
Stephen McGee
Isaiah Stanback
Stefan Lefors
Luke McCown
Seneca Wallace
Rohan Davey
Chris Weinke
Sage Rosenfels
Jesse Palmer

Success Rate: 4 of 29 (13.8%)

Fifth Round

Successes
None

Failures
Jake Fromm
Easton Stick
Clayton Thorson
Mike White
Nathan Peterman
Kevin Hogan
Brett Hundley
Aaron Murray
A.J. McCarron
Ricky Stanzi
TJ Yates
Nathan Enderle
John Skelton
Jonathan Crompton
Rhett Bomar
Nate Davis
John David Booty
Dennis Dixon
Josh Johnson
Erik Ainge
Jeff Rowe
Troy Smith
Ingle Martin
Omar Jacobs
Dan Orlovsky
Adrian McPherson
Craig Krenzel
Brian St. Pierre
Randy Fasani
Kurt Kittner
Brandon Doman
Craig Nall
Mike McMahon
AJ Feeley
Tee Martin

Literally zero franchise QBs in the fifth round since 2000. In fact, to find one, you have to go all the way back to Bob Waterfield in 1944.

Success Rate: 0 of 35 (0%)

Sixth Round

Successes
Tyrod Taylor (very debatable)
Marc Bulger
Tom Brady

Failures
Jake Luton
Gardner Minshew
Trace McSorley
Luke Falk
Tanner Lee
Brad Kayaa
Nate Sudfeld
Jake Rudock
Brandon Allen
Jeff Driskel
Zach Mettenberger
David Fales
Keith Wenning
Tajh Boyd
Garrett Gilbert
Ryan Lindley
Rusty Smith
Dan LeFevour
Joe Webb
Tony Pike
Tom Brandstater
Mike Teel
Keith Null
Curtis Painter
Colt Brennan
Andre Woodson
Jordan Palmer
Reggie McNeal
Bruce Gradkowski
Derek Anderson
Andy Hall
Josh Harris
Jim Sorgi
Jeff Smoker
Drew Henson
Brooks Bollinger
Kliff Kingsbury
JT O’Sullivan
Steve Bellisari
Josh Booty
Josh Heupel
Spergeon Wynn
Tom Husak
JaJuan Seider

Success Rate: 3 of 47 (6.4%)

Seventh Round

Successes
Matt Cassel
Ryan Fitzpatrick (very debatable)

Failures
Cole McDonald
Ben DiNucci
Tommy Stevens
Nate Stanley
Danny Etling
Alex McGough
Logan Woodside
Chad Kelly
Brandon Doughty
Trevor Siemian
Brad Sorensen
Zac Dysert
BJ Daniels
Sean Renfree
BJ Coleman
Chandler Harnish
Greg McElroy
Levi Brown
Sean Canfield
Zac Robinson
Matt Flynn (debatable)
Alex Brink
Tyler Thigpen
DJ Shockley
James Kilian
Cody Pickett
Casey Bramlett
Matt Mauck
BJ Symons
Bradlee Van Pelt
Gibran Hamdan
Ken Dorsey
Seth Burford
Jeff Kelly
Ronald Curry
Wes Pate
Tim Rattay
Jarious Jackson
Joe Hamilton

 

[oldhawkfan]

Wow. Thanks for doing that work. First round QBs still account for almost 60% failure rate. I would have guessed closer to 50%. There are no guarantees.

 

[Ozzy]

Also defensive lineman miss as often as quarterbacks do at the top of the first round so it always bothers me when people act as if Carter is a sure thing. Not picking on people who like Carter because he has a ton of talent but just making a point

 

[Rat]

Wow. Thanks for doing that work. First round QBs still account for almost 60% failure rate. I would have guessed closer to 50%. There are no guarantees, but I'd bet that 42% success rate is pretty comparable across other positions. Even if it isn't, it's a lot better in the first round than anywhere else. The draft is hard.

I don't feel like doing the work for other positions, because I'm lazy, but I think a first-rounder at any position would have a high miss rate. The NFL draft is hard.

 

[BASF]

Amazing work. Appreciate the patience and time you put into it. That said, no one in this draft is worth the Seahawks moving up for unless Levis lasts until sixteen or seventeen. If Stroud actually lasts to five, I would probably pull the trigger, but I don't see it happening. I know that a lot of people are enamored with Richardson's potential but he needs at least two years of learning before he is NFL ready. Spending a number one pick on that when we have a roster worse than swiss cheese is a waste of resources.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

I don't feel like doing the work for other positions, because I'm lazy, but I think a first-rounder at any position would have a high miss rate. The NFL draft is hard.

Well done.
Honestly, given the premium on the position, one could likely find a striking difference between taking a QB top 12 overall versus 13-32. I suspect the bust rate of QBs taken after pick 12 up to the last pick in the first probably even exceeds that of 2nd round QBs.

Ok so curiosity piqued. Here's that breakdown

FIRST ROUND top 12 overall

Successes

Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones (debatable)
Josh Allen
Patrick Mahomes
DeShaun Watson
Jared Goff
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford (debatable)
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith (debatable)
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Carson Palmer
Michael Vick

FAILURES

Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz (debatable)
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Blake Bortles
Ryan Tannehill (debatable)
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Mark Sanchez
Jamarcus Russell
Vince Young (debatable)
Matt Leinart
Byron Leftwich
David Carr
Joey Harrington

Success rate: 21 of 40 (52.5%)

Taken 13th or later in first round

Successes

Lamar Jackson
Joe Flacco
Aaron Rodgers
Chad Pennington

Failures

Jordan Love
Dwayne Haskins
Paxton Lynch
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
EJ Manuel
Brandon Weeden
Tim Tebow
Josh Freeman
Brady Quinn
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
Patrick Ramsey

Success rate 4 of 19 (21%)

So yeah, rates drop off a cliff far sooner than R2. It's pretty easy to even look at the busts in the top 12 overall to identify the QBs that were NOT considered that good, but where teams just took them out of sheer desperation. The position is truly that vital. Just eyeballing it, probably half of those top 12 overall failures I would characterize as true misses on consensus evaluation. So many of those were late R1 type prospects at the most optimistic.

Again, all drafts are completely different. Some drafts have a lot of blue chip talent that pushes medium R1 grade QBs to their proper place. Some drafts, you see a run on talent (not unlike last year with OTs early or Pass rushers in 2019), which forces hard choices for teams in the 9-12 range. And there are plenty of years where the well of pass rushers and LTs run dry and it's either a good WR, or take a flyer on a franchise QB.

 

[Hawkinaz]

I will add who makes the draft pick and their ability to develop the QB is as much or more than the player them selves and until just recently OCs are thinking outside the box enough to incorporate plays that the QB is comfortable with back when they are in college instead of forcing the QB to learn their system

 

[uncle fester]

Stellar work, Rat!

Random note, I know, but did anyone else’s eyebrows raise seeing Kliff Kingsbury’ s name on that list?

 

[ivotuk]

Hasselbeck was drafted in 1999, 6th round wasn't he? So he just missed making the list. Very nice work.

As far as David Carr, Houston destroyed him by putting him out there without an offensive line. Same thing that happened to Andrew Luck. Plenty of talent in those QBs, just zero protection.

RW cracked me up when he said "I'm tired of getting hit!" But he wanted to throw the ball more. Guess what Russell, you know what reduces a QB's chance of getting hit? Handing the ball off.

 

[WarHawks]

Awesome work. This breakdown indicates that we should at least consider this historic opportunity to pick a qb in the top 5, because we may not be able to again for a very long time.

 

[TwilightError]

Also I dont think it’s entirely true that picking a wrong QB early sets the franchise back for years. The Niners are not a mess and they picked Lance third overall. The Cardinals recovered quick after picking Rosen. The ones that stay bad are usually bad in many ways. Having a journeyman QB rarely wins championships, so not rolling the dice is a risk as well.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

Also I dont think it’s entirely true that picking a wrong QB early sets the franchise back for years. The Niners are not a mess and they picked Lance third overall. The Cardinals recovered quick after picking Rosen. The ones that stay bad are usually bad in many ways. Having a journeyman QB rarely wins championships, so not rolling the dice is a risk as well.

The term "fail quickly" comes to mind. You are correct, if you're in QB hell, you have to continually keep plunking coins into the QB slot machine. Otherwise you are wasting the remaining talent on your roster. Of course SF didn't *just* pick Lance third overall. They traded away massive amounts of draft capital to get him. We only just have to pull the trigger with just one of the picks we already own. It will hurt SF in the 2-5 years ahead as they won't have young cheap starters to help fill out a roster as player attrition to cap consideration erodes their team.

It's the one aspect (among many) that I admired about Mike Holmgren. He continually cultivated the talent in his QB room. Most of it didn't materialize. But the effort was there. I expected Schneider to do the same as he came from the Ron Wolf tree of GMs, but looks like he's been unable to make those picks.

From a rosterbation standpoint, there isn't a higher value than getting your next QB while having one on the team. The ability to trade a quality starter for at least a couple starter grade players (actual players or picks) plus the cap flexibility to either retain upcoming cap casualties or add starters in UFA with the cap savings is difficult to ignore. Really we probably should add in DK Metcalf in that trade return as well. Since his extension is likely only probable with the cap savings having traded Wilson away.

Even if we resign Geno and he proves to be a 3500+ yard efficient QB in 2023 -- he has tremendous value on the trade market. Whether picks or just a lateral cap move for other players that we could desperately use. We got quite a lot of value out of Fant/Harris this year who were offered in to the Wilson deal in order to make cap numbers work for both sides.

It's kind of funny how it worked. But we're sitting here now feeling good about the draft process and team this year and we basically did precisely that without realizing it or more accurately being forced into it. Trading our starter for the next guy up. The only differences being we were pleasantly surprised by Smith's performance and Geno wasn't quite as cheap at a rookie deal QB. But the end result is the same. It's kind of a mirror of that concept: Keep adding QBs and use the trade value later to improve the team's future.

 

[WarHawks]

The only differences being we were pleasantly surprised by Smith's performance and Geno wasn't quite as cheap at a rookie deal QB. But the end result is the same. It's kind of a mirror of that concept: Keep adding QBs and use the trade value later to improve the team's future.

I like it. If Geno sucks, trade him and bring up the rookie. If he doesn't, great. It's a win-win.

 

[Jegpeg]

A lot have said their is a big drop of after the top 3 picks so split it further. I also included RG III as a failure I am not sure if he was accidentally missed or missed out because he was mainly a failure due to injury but injury risk is one thing that is included in draft selection.

Picks 4-12 do at least as well as top 3 picks which is interesting. If you limit it to the last 10 years it is even more marked with Burrow, Murray and Goff being the only sucesses and 7 failures. Is this due to teams with top 3 picks having inept people drafting, impossible situations to perform in or does the pressure of being a really high pick make it much more difficult to perform?

It does at least indicate the wins by the Broncos and Texans in week 18 weren't a total disaster in terms of our chances of getting talent in the draft.

FIRST ROUND top 3 overall

Successes
Joe Burrow
Kyler Murray
Jared Goff
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford (debatable)
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Alex Smith (debatable)
Eli Manning
Michael Vick

FAILURES
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz (debatable)
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Blake Bortles
Robert Griffin III (debatable)
Jamarcus Russell
David Carr
Joey Harrington

Success rate: 11 of 22 (50%)

DRAFTED 4-12
SUCCESSES
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Daniel Jones (debatable)
Josh Allen
Patrick Mahomes
DeShaun Watson
Jay Cutler
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Carson Palmer
Vince Young (debatable)

FAILURES

Josh Rosen
Ryan Tannehill (debatable)
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Mark Sanchez
Matt Leinart
Byron Leftwich

Success rate: 11 of 19 (57.9%)

 

[Rat]

Dammit, I meant 2020, not 2010. Can a thread title be changed? Or if a mod could change it, I would appreciate it.

 

[hawkfan68]

I got tired of hearing people say you don’t need to draft a QB in the first round because Brady was a 6th rounder, Russell Wilson went in the 3rd, etc. I was curious about the hit/miss rate for QBs taken recently, so I looked at every draft from 2000-2020 to see. I didn’t include anyone from the last two years because I think that’s too early to make a judgment, although a number of those players have been cut from the team that drafted him, and it’s probably safe to call guys like Zach Wilson a bust. This list is strictly franchise QBs, I didn’t list guys who became quality backups as “successes”. This is also strictly for the team that drafted them. Like Geno Smith killed it with the Seahawks last season, but the Jets didn’t invest a second round pick and 30 starts, just for him to figure it out a decade later with a different team.

Some of these are based on my personal opinions and could be a bit debatable.


First Round

Successes
Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones (debatable)
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
DeShaun Watson
Jared Goff
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford (debatable)
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith (debatable)
Aaron Rodgers
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Carson Palmer
Michael Vick
Chad Pennington

Failures
Jordan Love
Dwayne Haskins
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz (debatable)
Paxton Lynch
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
EJ Manuel
Ryan Tannehill (debatable)
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Tim Tebow
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Jamarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Vince Young (debatable)
Matt Leinart
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey

Success Rate: 25 of 59 (42.4%)

Second Round

Successes
Jalen Hurts
Derek Carr
Jimmy Garoppolo (debatable)
Andy Dalton
Colin Kaepernick
Drew Brees (32nd pick)

Failures
Drew Lock
DeShone Kizer
Christian Hackenberg
Geno Smith
Brock Oswelier
Jimmy Clausen
Pat White
Brian Brohm
Chad Henne
Kevin Kolb
John Beck
Drew Stanton
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasasopo

Success Rate: 6 of 22 (27.2%)

Third Round

Successes
Russell Wilson
Matt Schaub

Failures
Will Grier
Mason Rudolph
Davis Webb
C.J. Beathard
Jacoby Brissett
Cody Kessler
Garrett Grayson
Sean Mannion
Mike Glennon
Nick Foles (very debatable)
Ryan Mallett
Terrelle Pryor
Colt McCoy
Kevin O’Connell
Trent Edwards
Charlie Whitehurst
Brodie Croyle
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms
Josh McCown
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman

It’s telling that Russell Wilson was the most recent third-round pick to become a franchise QB, and that was 11 drafts ago. Some might list Foles as a success, but while that postseason run was magical, and obviously nobody in Philadelphia regrets that pick, Foles was not a franchise QB and was eventually used as a throw-in in a trade to acquire Sam Bradford. It’s telling that he has switched teams six times in 11 years, and he was awful for most of them.

Success Rate: 2 of 27 (10.7%)

Round Four

Successes
Dak Prescott
Kirk Cousins
Kyle Orton
David Garrard

Failures
Jacob Eason
James Morgan
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Kyle Lauletta
Joshua Dobbs
Conner Cook
Cardale Jones
Bryce Petty
Logan Thomas
Tom Savage
Matt Barkley
Ryan Nassib
Tyler Wilson
Landry Jones
Mike Kafka
Stephen McGee
Isaiah Stanback
Stefan Lefors
Luke McCown
Seneca Wallace
Rohan Davey
Chris Weinke
Sage Rosenfels
Jesse Palmer

Success Rate: 4 of 29 (13.8%)

Fifth Round

Successes
None

Failures
Jake Fromm
Easton Stick
Clayton Thorson
Mike White
Nathan Peterman
Kevin Hogan
Brett Hundley
Aaron Murray
A.J. McCarron
Ricky Stanzi
TJ Yates
Nathan Enderle
John Skelton
Jonathan Crompton
Rhett Bomar
Nate Davis
John David Booty
Dennis Dixon
Josh Johnson
Erik Ainge
Jeff Rowe
Troy Smith
Ingle Martin
Omar Jacobs
Dan Orlovsky
Adrian McPherson
Craig Krenzel
Brian St. Pierre
Randy Fasani
Kurt Kittner
Brandon Doman
Craig Nall
Mike McMahon
AJ Feeley
Tee Martin

Literally zero franchise QBs in the fifth round since 2000. In fact, to find one, you have to go all the way back to Bob Waterfield in 1944.

Success Rate: 0 of 35 (0%)

Sixth Round

Successes
Tyrod Taylor (very debatable)
Marc Bulger
Tom Brady

Failures
Jake Luton
Gardner Minshew
Trace McSorley
Luke Falk
Tanner Lee
Brad Kayaa
Nate Sudfeld
Jake Rudock
Brandon Allen
Jeff Driskel
Zach Mettenberger
David Fales
Keith Wenning
Tajh Boyd
Garrett Gilbert
Ryan Lindley
Rusty Smith
Dan LeFevour
Joe Webb
Tony Pike
Tom Brandstater
Mike Teel
Keith Null
Curtis Painter
Colt Brennan
Andre Woodson
Jordan Palmer
Reggie McNeal
Bruce Gradkowski
Derek Anderson
Andy Hall
Josh Harris
Jim Sorgi
Jeff Smoker
Drew Henson
Brooks Bollinger
Kliff Kingsbury
JT O’Sullivan
Steve Bellisari
Josh Booty
Josh Heupel
Spergeon Wynn
Tom Husak
JaJuan Seider

Success Rate: 3 of 47 (6.4%)

Seventh Round

Successes
Matt Cassel
Ryan Fitzpatrick (very debatable)

Failures
Cole McDonald
Ben DiNucci
Tommy Stevens
Nate Stanley
Danny Etling
Alex McGough
Logan Woodside
Chad Kelly
Brandon Doughty
Trevor Siemian
Brad Sorensen
Zac Dysert
BJ Daniels
Sean Renfree
BJ Coleman
Chandler Harnish
Greg McElroy
Levi Brown
Sean Canfield
Zac Robinson
Matt Flynn (debatable)
Alex Brink
Tyler Thigpen
DJ Shockley
James Kilian
Cody Pickett
Casey Bramlett
Matt Mauck
BJ Symons
Bradlee Van Pelt
Gibran Hamdan
Ken Dorsey
Seth Burford
Jeff Kelly
Ronald Curry
Wes Pate
Tim Rattay
Jarious Jackson
Joe Hamilton

Great post. Thank you for the doing the research here. I came upon an article, link below, on that analyzes the hit/miss for each offensive skill position for 1st round picks. It was published 3 years ago so keep that in mind. https://football.pitcherlist.com/pessimists-guide-to-the-nfl-draft/

 

[Hawkinaz]

A lot have said their is a big drop of after the top 3 picks so split it further. I also included RG III as a failure I am not sure if he was accidentally missed or missed out because he was mainly a failure due to injury but injury risk is one thing that is included in draft selection.

Picks 4-12 do at least as well as top 3 picks which is interesting. If you limit it to the last 10 years it is even more marked with Burrow, Murray and Goff being the only sucesses and 7 failures. Is this due to teams with top 3 picks having inept people drafting, impossible situations to perform in or does the pressure of being a really high pick make it much more difficult to perform?

It does at least indicate the wins by the Broncos and Texans in week 18 weren't a total disaster in terms of our chances of getting talent in the draft.

FIRST ROUND top 3 overall

Successes
Joe Burrow
Kyler Murray
Jared Goff
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford (debatable)
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Alex Smith (debatable)
Eli Manning
Michael Vick

FAILURES
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz (debatable)
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Blake Bortles
Robert Griffin III (debatable)
Jamarcus Russell
David Carr
Joey Harrington

Success rate: 11 of 22 (50%)

DRAFTED 4-12
SUCCESSES
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Daniel Jones (debatable)
Josh Allen
Patrick Mahomes
DeShaun Watson
Jay Cutler
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Carson Palmer
Vince Young (debatable)

FAILURES

Josh Rosen
Ryan Tannehill (debatable)
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Mark Sanchez
Matt Leinart
Byron Leftwich

Success rate: 11 of 19 (57.9%)

I wasn’t a fan of RG3 when he came out of college he was more concerned about his 40 time than actually playing the position of QB. The system that Baylor used didn’t translate well to the NFL with all of the extreme spacing. Some of the best QBs to ever play were not good athletes

 

[GemCity]

Good stuff. Thanks Rat!

 

[Chevy]

Rat, thanks for taking the time to post this. This will be a good reference for future arguments about the hit rate on drafting QBs.

 

[UK_Seahawk]

I think ultimately what we can take from OPs amazing work is that if your name is BJ you are going in the 7th round.