If Wilson isn't elite.....

[5_Golden_Rings]

Wilson isn't in the same tier as Brady Rodgers of Brees. Period. I don't see why people feel the need to compare him to these guys. He a really good QB who I think can lead us to another SB with enough weapons around him. Wilson has a lot of highs with a lot of lows. He can be very inconsistent. But he's our QB

Even attempting to compare him to Rodgers is blasphemy.

Ya I,mean Rodgers has done better in the post season then Wilson and all....... Oh wait ....

Don't you know? Rodgers carried a crap team to a SB and has had even crappier teams ever since.

That so called crap team had a great defense late in the season..
He has always had weapons on offense plus his legs..The legs are going
and the cap has hurt the team overall..Father time is catching up-even have
an old ass JG but this is what happens when you cannot spread the money.
There is too many holes.

Now consider Drew Brees, who has had more last place defenses on his team than the odds of the Browns firing their coach after a loss to the Steelers.

Brees is the underrated GOAT. How many unheard of WRs become great around him?



But yes, even the best need help, and exhibit A is Brees. No one could win with the absolutely terrible defenses he's had most of his career.

 

[mrt144]

Ya I,mean Rodgers has done better in the post season then Wilson and all....... Oh wait ....

Don't you know? Rodgers carried a crap team to a SB and has had even crappier teams ever since.

That so called crap team had a great defense late in the season..
He has always had weapons on offense plus his legs..The legs are going
and the cap has hurt the team overall..Father time is catching up-even have
an old ass JG but this is what happens when you cannot spread the money.
There is too many holes.

Now consider Drew Brees, who has had more last place defenses on his team than the odds of the Browns firing their coach after a loss to the Steelers.

Brees is the underrated GOAT. How many unheard of WRs become great around him?



But yes, even the best need help, and exhibit A is Brees. No one could win with the absolutely terrible defenses he's had most of his career.

This is why wins for QBs is so dubious at times.
Also the Saints represent one end of a multi pole spectrum of team building, like almost a caricature of what a high powered offense, mostly bad defense unfolds like.

The more I think about our future, I think it's totally possible to have a team with RW making 30M and win a SB but it has to be done on the defensive side of the ball more because Pete gonna Pete with his offense and OC hires. There will be deadweight loss for half assing a cogent passing game with RW as the QB. It happens. I would totally believe that Pete loves the idea of coaching RW forever and being linked at the hip like he's Sam to Frodo. I am that credulous on them having a good to great working relationship.

Everyone has their pet ideas about how rebuild our defense to that standard so i won't bore you with mine but it does feel like we need an epic draft haul to do that. Something bananas like 2010-2012. I really am kinda dour on FA signings.

 

[poly1274]

Elite QB's convert 3rd and long. What does RW do?

 

[bmorepunk]

Elite QB's convert 3rd and long. What does RW do?

Rodgers had six passing plays on 3rd & 5 and greater last week and only two resulted in first downs. The others resulted in a sack and three incomplete/too short passes.

Brady? Five pass plays on 3rd & 5 and greater. One first down, two sacks, and two incomplete passes. And Brady had another incomplete pass erased on a DPI.

So we have Rodgers at at a 1/3rd success rate and Brady on a 1/5th success rate. Elite. Second guy is best all time. And they still weren't very successful on 3rd & Long.

Wilson didn't get any last week, and he had nine pass plays on 3rd & 5 or greater. But Wilson also had 3rd & 8th and greater on seven of those, with the worst ones being 13 yards, 13 yards, 22 yards, and 24 yards. Neither Brady nor Rodgers faced anything than longer than 3rd & 10, and neither one of those guys converted anything unless it was seven yards or under.

 

[bmorepunk]

So I found the numbers for % First Downs on 3rd Down:

1 M. Ryan Atl 55.7 ( 44/79 )
2 P. Mahomes KC 52.2 ( 35/67 )
3 J. Winston TB 51.7 ( 15/29 )
4 A. Luck Ind 51.6 ( 49/95 )
5 M. Mariota Ten 50.0 ( 25/50 )
6 M. Stafford Det 46.4 ( 32/69 )
7 B. Osweiler Mia 45.5 ( 20/44 )
8 J. Goff LAR 44.8 ( 30/67 )
9 M. Trubisky Chi 44.1 ( 26/59 )
10 D. Brees NO 43.9 ( 25/57 )
11 D. Carr Oak 43.3 ( 26/60 )
12 K. Cousins Min 43.2 ( 41/95 )
13 C. Wentz Phi 42.9 ( 24/56 )
14 A. Dalton Cin 42.2 ( 27/64 )
15 B. Roethlisberger Pit 42.0 ( 34/81 )
16 A. Rodgers GB 41.9 ( 31/74 )
17 R. Fitzpatrick TB 41.9 ( 18/43 )
18 C. Newton Car 41.4 ( 24/58 )
19 J. Flacco Bal 40.7 ( 37/91 )
20 B. Bortles Jax 40.5 ( 32/79 )

Brady's not even in the top 20 (28/72 - 38.9%). Rodgers is 16th in the league (41.9%). Winston and Osweiler must be elite, I guess. Wilson is at 37.3%, almost elite Brady territory, apparently.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/lead ... pe=Passing

 

[rcaido]

If anyone is interested here is Brees vs Wilson first 6 years in terms of passing. But as you can see Wilson beats him in every single category. Didn't even need to add Wilson Rushing stats.


Wilson
2012-2017
W-65 L-30 T- 1
161 TD
55 INT
1815 CMP
2834 ATT
64 CMP%
99.0 RATE
22,175 Yards
19 Game winning Drive

5 playoff
2 superbowl


Brees
2002-2007
W-47 L-43
133 TD
82 INT
1906 CMP
2,988 ATT
63.7 CMP%
87.33 RATE
20,968 yards
12 Game winning Drive

2 playoff appearance

 

[rcaido]

Here is Brady's vs Wilson stats for first 6 years...Wilson beats him too except for Wins & Superbowls.

Wilson
2012-2017
W-65 L-30 T- 1
161 TD
55 INT
1815 CMP
2834 ATT
64 CMP%
99.0 RATE
22,175 Yards
19 Game winning Drive

5 playoff
2 superbowl

Brady
2001-2006
W-70 L-24
147 TD
78 INT
1895 CMP
3061 ATT
61.9 CMP%
88.48 RATE
21,558 yards
18 Game Winning Drives


5 PLAYOFFS
3 SUPERBOWLS

Yeah Wilson is definitely a Game Manager! :roll:

 

[Uncle Si]

Stats...


very helpful to those who put the effort in.

 

[JimmyG]

If anyone is interested here is Brees vs Wilson first 6 years in terms of passing. But as you can see Wilson beats him in every single category. Didn't even need to add Wilson Rushing stats.

Cool stats, but like a lot of people, you are ignoring context. The league is significantly more passer-friendly than it was 15-20 years ago. You can't straight up compare numbers from 2002 to numbers from 2015. It's just a biased comparison.

 

[Seymour]

If anyone is interested here is Brees vs Wilson first 6 years in terms of passing. But as you can see Wilson beats him in every single category. Didn't even need to add Wilson Rushing stats.

Cool stats, but like a lot of people, you are ignoring context. The league is significantly more passer-friendly than it was 15-20 years ago. You can't straight up compare numbers from 2002 to numbers from 2015. It's just a biased comparison.

Jesus....it's always something stupid! You are "ignoring "context" !!
Wilson did it with league worst pass protection, Darrell Bevel calling plays, and on a run first team!! :roll:

That is the most ridiculous excuse I've seen yet. "You can't use that, it happened yesterday and now it's today". ukeface:

 

[TwistedHusky]

I disagree.

The rule changes significantly favor QBs more than any time before. To the tune of 100yds per game.

While Wilson might be on a team that throws less than the rest of the league, go look at how often guys were throwing even when Montana was QB.

There was no 5yd penalties and you get a new set of downs. No ridiculous protections for the QB.

If you look at the career passing #s you will find today's QBs are all up there. Because the field is slanted toward the QB. It is laughable to say that because Wilson has some of the best #s all time that he is one of the best QBs of all time. He isn't even one of the best QBs NOW.

Remember when Dak was putting up tremendous #s as a rookie and wiping away records? Of course he was, because historically teams did not play their rookies.

Wilson puts up great numbers because all decent QBs put up great #s in today's offenses, with today's rules vs the QBs of yesterday. But he isn't the next Montana or Young and guys like even Warren Moon would have a field day in today's offenses with today's rules.

 

[Seymour]

WOW!!
So is Russell the only QB playing under these new rules then? How does he compare to others in his class then?? Luck, RG3, Tannehill, Weedon, Fowles, Cousins??? :roll:

And 100 yards per game passing over 10 years ago is ridiculous! The numbers absolutely do not bear that. :177692:

Sure....formulate all this garbage into your "calculations" then ignore completely the Cable, Bevell, Pete "dynamic offense" factor.....that is fair right? ukeface:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2777685-ranking-the-nfls-best-deep-passers#slide9

2. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

It takes time to throw deep. The average passing play lasts about 2.5 seconds before the ball is released. So, making an accurate deep throw is more difficult if your offensive line doesn't protect you.

Which means Wilson's excellence as a deep passer breaks a lot of rules. Since he entered the league, the Seattle Seahawks line has been blown apart by questionable coaching and even more questionable personnel decisions. Former line coach Tom Cable, now with the Raiders (good luck, Derek Carr), created a line that made Wilson one of the most pressured quarterbacks year after year. Let's hope for Wilson's sake that new line coach Mike Solari will reverse those issues.

How has Wilson become a productive deep thrower despite all the pressure? First, he's great at diagnosing one-on-one matchups when opponents blitz—that's why he had the highest percentage of big-time throws versus the blitz last season, per Pro Football Focus. Second, he makes a habit of bailing out of the pocket and redirecting his body to the target; that's when a lot of the Seahawks' deep passes come—Wilson's receivers understand they must alter their routes to adjust to his movements. Third, he's mechanically sound enough to combine velocity and accuracy in a consistent package.

If Seattle gets its line figured out, imagine how great Wilson could be with the deep ball.

 

[Seymour]

I disagree.

The rule changes significantly favor QBs more than any time before. To the tune of 100yds per game.

While Wilson might be on a team that throws less than the rest of the league, go look at how often guys were throwing even when Montana was QB.

There was no 5yd penalties and you get a new set of downs. No ridiculous protections for the QB.

If you look at the career passing #s you will find today's QBs are all up there. Because the field is slanted toward the QB. It is laughable to say that because Wilson has some of the best #s all time that he is one of the best QBs of all time. He isn't even one of the best QBs NOW.

Remember when Dak was putting up tremendous #s as a rookie and wiping away records? Of course he was, because historically teams did not play their rookies.

Wilson puts up great numbers because all decent QBs put up great #s in today's offenses, with today's rules vs the QBs of yesterday. But he isn't the next Montana or Young and guys like even Warren Moon would have a field day in today's offenses with today's rules.

If you think you can just throw random crap against the wall and hope it sticks...don't. You are so flippin far off on this it is sad, tilted by 660% to your side, and flat out ridiculous!! And you do it all to discount your own teams QB. Shame on you! :141847_bnono:

Here are the REAL numbers!!

Top NFL passers.
2017 Brady 4577 yards.
2016 Brees 5208
2015 Brees 4870
Average of 4885 yards per season

2000 Manning 4413
2001 Warner 4830
2002 Gannon 4689
Average of 4644 yards per season.

Difference from 15 years ago to today = 241 yards per season.
divided by 16 games = 15.06 yards per game....NOT 100 yards per game.

So stop with the tilted BS!!

 

[TwistedHusky]

Seymour,

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1460 ... chieve-nfl

But I have been watching football for a long time, I remember when Kurt Warner throwing for 300yds a game was this crazy amazing accomplishment. Now everyone does it.

If you want to believe that QBs are just all naturally better now (there is a great TED talk on how athletes are not that much better - the differences are the resources/tools they are working with now. Such as the quality of track/shoes, etc), hey have at it.

The average QB is now only throwing for 70-80 more yards a game. But the upper tier, not quite elites are throwing for more.

And as the article indicated:

Sack rate
Int rate
and several others are much better now - primarily because of rule and tactics changes.

Wilson isn't elite. He is still upper tier but not elite. He is putting up all-time numbers though. That should be a clear indication something else has changed. That something is the rules of the game.

 

[Seymour]

Not reading your BS anymore Twisted. I see why you got that name now. I've learned what your agenda is and it's BS.

Not Elite according to who?? You?? When, what year....just stop. You are WAY OFF here!! ukeface: ukeface:

Wilson is not "the average NFL QB either. Only you think that because it fits your agenda. :177692:

And you still discount (completely ignore) the Cable, Bevell. Pete factor. You only use those when it fits your tilted picture.

 

[mrt144]

Seymour,

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1460 ... chieve-nfl

But I have been watching football for a long time, I remember when Kurt Warner throwing for 300yds a game was this crazy amazing accomplishment. Now everyone does it.

If you want to believe that QBs are just all naturally better now (there is a great TED talk on how athletes are not that much better - the differences are the resources/tools they are working with now. Such as the quality of track/shoes, etc), hey have at it.

The average QB is now only throwing for 70-80 more yards a game. But the upper tier, not quite elites are throwing for more.

And as the article indicated:

Sack rate
Int rate
and several others are much better now - primarily because of rule and tactics changes.

Wilson isn't elite. He is still upper tier but not elite. He is putting up all-time numbers though. That should be a clear indication something else has changed. That something is the rules of the game.

Yes and no - maybe comparing him to historical QBs is faulty but comparing him to his cohort 2 years in each direction...

I remember predicting that Wilson's profile would rise as some of the older QBs retire and the new crop is as hapless as prior crops in aggregate. Still waiting on that to come to fruition due to lack of old QB retirements. But it makes some sort of sense that as some of the GOAT candidate QBs retire, or even some of the good 2nd bananas like Rivers and Big Ben, the dearth of QBs playing even close to that level will elevate even the next crop up - maybe not in historical terms but in contemporary terms.

Also one thing that I would love to flesh out is whether the rule changes are a tide that has lifted all boats or has lifted boats that were already pretty good even more so. Like, are the biggest beneficiaries of rule changes a small pool of already good QBs who just processed it like a nitro boost to their game or are there less truly hapless jamokes slinging the ball now than there were say 10-20-30 years ago? Like what share of the average rise in various performance metrics do Rodgers, Brady, Brees, etc etc individually distort? To that end, what if despite all these rule changes that elevate raw numbers and derivative stats, the thing that matters is what percentile you fall into relative to your cohort in contemporary stats?

 

[TwistedHusky]

Nice Cherry Picking.

If you want to wallow in ignorance, please continue.

1990s the average passer in the NFL was 190yds a game.

2018 the average passer in the NFL is 250 a game.

The article points out the other areas QBs have all miraculously gotten better.

Bear in mind the median is worse.

Go back and look at career leaders in passing yards per game.

Weirdly Stafford and Cousins are better than Fouts. Winston is better than Marino and Favre.

But sure....the numbers clearly similar. Today's QBs don't have weird advantages. They just naturally all pass for more yards per game because of amazing coincidence.

I am literally laughing at your suggestion that Wilson is elite because of raw #s when you see Winston and Stafford are elite by that standard.

 

[Seymour]

Wilson is in the elite conversation for years now. Not every year does he play elite ball no, but hes on the edge and in the conversation. One thing he is for damn sure! He's closer to elite than average. You hate your own teams QB to call him average. You have been called out and proven to have true agenda.

Bye now.

 

[TwistedHusky]

We actually agree on him being upper tier.

I think Wilson is a great QB being held back by his coaching staff.

All I was doing was pointing out that the argument that because he is putting up historical #s he is elite - does not hold water. Historical #s are pointless because the #s mean less.

Wilson is a guy that is a top ten QB that could be top 3-5 with the right support and staff. He doesn't get that so instead he ends up at closer to 7 than 2. But he is a tremendous QB. Not being elite does not mean he is not amazing.

Elite is actually subjective anyway. But no, he isn't Brees - though Brees was not Brees when he started. He needed a system, time and the right staff (Payton) to become what he is now. Comparing Wilson and Brees #s does not mean much unless we normalize them though.

This was never an argument about Wilson being substandard, below average or even average. It was about how the measuring stick was not valid. Wilson is an exceptional QB that had to produce in situations not many could have. I don't dispute that.

 

[rcaido]

Nice Cherry Picking.

If you want to wallow in ignorance, please continue.

1990s the average passer in the NFL was 190yds a game.

2018 the average passer in the NFL is 250 a game.

The article points out the other areas QBs have all miraculously gotten better.

Bear in mind the median is worse.

Go back and look at career leaders in passing yards per game.

Weirdly Stafford and Cousins are better than Fouts. Winston is better than Marino and Favre.

But sure....the numbers clearly similar. Today's QBs don't have weird advantages. They just naturally all pass for more yards per game because of amazing coincidence.

I am literally laughing at your suggestion that Wilson is elite because of raw #s when you see Winston and Stafford are elite by that standard.

That was the 90s...

2002
average Passing was 212.2 yards
average TD was 21.7tds
average INT was 16.5
average ATT was 540.4
average CMP% was 59.6
vs
2017
average Passing was 224.4 yards
average TD was 23.2tds
average INT was 13.4
average ATT was 546.5
average CMP% was 62.1


It really hasn't been an extreme jump like you were suggesting.