GilBrandt-Panthers, Seahawks have biggest Super Bowl windows

[kearly]

Most either don't know or choose to forget that Cam and Rivera were 2-14 in one score games at one point.

I didn't know that, but I guess it explains the 'Lovie Smith Bears' vibe I get from the current Panthers. A team that can reach the SB and make several deep playoff runs, but also a team that has huge win total swings season to season.

FWIW, I actually really like the Panthers and saw their rise coming sooner than most. In fantasy football, I made it a point to draft their defense in 2012 and 2013 because I knew it was going to be really good. Before the Panthers got good, I cited a season opening game against them in the heat as my most feared Seahawks opponent of the entire season.

I think the Panthers have done a terrific job early in the draft. Cam, Kuechly, and Short were all prospects that I loved and wanted badly for my Seahawks.

I hope Panthers-Seahawks becomes a rivalry, and honestly it really bothers me that almost every time these teams play there is some kind of field conditions factor that messes things up (10am pacific start, night game, insane heat, crappy field, malfunctioning headsets, etc). Because I think on a neutral field at a neutral time in neutral condiions, these two teams would be fun as hell to watch go at it.

 

[kearly]

I remember reading these championship window articles about the 9ers 2 years ago. Nothing is certain.

Great point.

The NFL is an adapt or die league. You don't even have to look at the dead franchises, look at the live ones. The Patriots today are a totally different team than the one that won 3 SBs in the early to mid oughts. When their defense started to age, Bill Belichick made the kind of transition decisions that could keep his team in contention. Look at Denver. They went from historic offense with a mediocre defense to a historic defense and a mediocre offense in just two years! And then Seattle, who is transitioning from a power ball run team with a historic defense to one of the deadliest spread offenses in the NFL.

If Carolina wants to have sustained success, they will have to be willing to embrace evolution at some point. Because if they don't, teams will get better and better at exploiting their weaknesses every year because they have more and more time seeing the same things and players will get older / more expensive / less hungry. Seattle, Denver, SF, and New England have all gone through it, soon it will be Carolina's turn.

That doesn't mean the Panthers are doomed, but it does mean they are on the cusp of a challenging time.

 

[knownone]

I think Carolina's ability to retain Charles Johnson, Kawann Short, Star Lotulelei, and Josh Norman over the next 2 years will be the most telling in how they maintain success. It's gonna be hard, they've got 3 players coming off rookie contracts who are arguably top 5 at their positions. Norman is probably worth around 12 million per year, Kawann Short is in that 10 per year range, Star is in the 7-10 range. Throw in the fact that Luke Keuchly's massive deal and Greg Olson's deal hits in 2017. It'll be interesting to see how they hold up next year and long term.

I hate the panthers, but to be fair, you could insert some Seahawks names in that paragraph and it would sound a lot like what people were saying about us last year or 2 years ago.

Thankfully we have the best front office in the league and have weathered it. The big question is if Carolina can.

It's a little different. The Seahawks managed to get significant bargains on key players going into their second contracts, Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril being two major examples of this, those contracts were major outliers in the grand scheme of things. John Clayton always talks about teams really only having room 4-6 players in that 8-10 million$ range including QBs, Carolina would have 11 guys in that range if they extend and hold on to their core. This years Seahawks have 6. Tough decisions ahead for Carolina.

 

[ctrcat]

^ The Panthers previous GM prior to 2013 certainly had his moments but did not "know when to hold em, know when to fold em". Again releasing Steve Smith and yo-yoing Ted Ginn are two examples of this GM's ability to make tough and shrewd decisions.

It's certainly possible that one or more of those players leave and they MAY not choose to spend big money on Norman and Short, but such a decision would likely not come before 2017. In that hypothetical Short would likely be resigned over Norman IMO.

For 2016, Charles Johnson is unlikely to come back at his production and crazy high cap number and Norman is at a minimum likely to be tagged. I could not see any other potential consternation for even the worriest of worrywarts.

 

[Keyhawk]

I hear Gil Brandt a lot on NFL Radio. He does not talk much about Seahawks, but when he does, he mentions how hgood they are. His knowledge of NFL stats is terrific, and He loves to talk about his team, the Cowboys.

Good article, thanks for posting.

 

[BigMeach]

And when you look at Carolina's record in close games and then remember that they were #1 in turnover margin by a mile (both stats that are heavily luck based), it has all the tell tale signs of a fluke season. Which is probably why DVOA has been slow to crown them all year long. They are a good team, but "Super Bowl Window" talk for a team like this is not appropriate. The Panthers are a good but not great NFL franchise coming off one of the most charmed seasons in NFL history.
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turnovers and winning close games are luck based now?

lol ok

I vote that it's a rule going forward that if you "lol ok'' Kearly (especially a lurker of another fan base) you get banhammered. :sarcasm_on: ? :th2thumbs:

 

[Hawks46]

And when you look at Carolina's record in close games and then remember that they were #1 in turnover margin by a mile (both stats that are heavily luck based), it has all the tell tale signs of a fluke season. Which is probably why DVOA has been slow to crown them all year long. They are a good team, but "Super Bowl Window" talk for a team like this is not appropriate. The Panthers are a good but not great NFL franchise coming off one of the most charmed seasons in NFL history.
.

turnovers and winning close games are luck based now?

lol ok

It's actually a fact. Look at the Niners a few years ago: they had the best turn over margin in the league by a wide margin, then the next year they regressed to the mean (not bad, and still a healthy positive margin but regression) and it severely affected them.

And yes, turn overs are luck based many times. Look no farther than the Seattle game against the Panthers. You had 3 consecutive fumbles that went right into Panthers players' hands, one of which was 15 yards downfield and the Center got it. That IS luck.

 

[Hawks46]

The Panthers are a good team with a good young core of talent, but their 15-1 season is arguably the greatest outlier season in NFL history. They were returning a worse team on paper than one that went 7-8-1 the year before, and have come so close to a perfect 19-0 with that flawed team. I can only imagine the mathematical probability of that happening, how many season simulations of a 7-8-1 team missing their best weapon all year had them going 15-1? Maybe 1 in a 1000?

I think they will be a perennial playoff team due to the fact that the NFC South is so awful, but I think their fortunes will mirror the Lovie Smith Bears teams: alternating between mediocre and dominant every other season.

Well, that's why the games aren't decided on paper.

Cam Newton was injured the entire 7-8-1 season. When he was able to play, he was getting destroyed thanks to one of the worst offensive lines through the first 8 weeks.


The Panthers should actually be better next season as they get Kelvin Benjamin back and actually have more cap room to work with than they have had since 2011.

This brings up an interesting point: Cam really isn't Superman, and he's been dinged up and injured plenty before this.

He loves to run the ball, and the Panthers love to have him run it in goal line situations. Don't get me wrong, he's deadly there but those are situations where you're going to take some hits.

It really comes down to luck and a matter of time before he takes a few of the wrong hits and he's hurt again. Wilson is a wizard when it comes to avoiding hits. When he runs, he gets hit less than when he's in the pocket. Don't get me wrong: many of us are worried Wilson takes too many hits as well. Cam can't keep taking tons of hits or it will catch up with him.

 

[ctrcat]

^ Depends on which side you're on, luck or not. I repeatedly called the 2013 Hawks the better team but DeAngelo Williams' fumble luck, and was told 'gtfo'. Rewatch the 2014/15 playoff game and you'll see the ball bounce right back to Russell averting disaster. The October game at the CLink the Hawks were +2 in turnovers. Hard for most fans to be objective when it's short for fanatic.

As for Cam's injuries, there's really only one legit on field one and it actually took place in a preseason game in New England with the broken ribs. While he missed the season opener, he would have played had the stage or circumstances been different. The ankle injury was an issue that went back to college, he had just had surgery on it, and it was retwisted by Burfict midseason. When finally somewhat healthy, then came the car accident that wasn't his fault.

 

[BigMeach]

^ Depends on which side you're on, luck or not. I repeatedly called the 2013 Hawks the better team but DeAngelo Williams' fumble luck, and was told 'gtfo'. Rewatch the 2014/15 playoff game and you'll see the ball bounce right back to Russell averting disaster. The October game at the CLink the Hawks were +2 in turnovers. Hard for most fans to be objective when it's short for fanatic.

As for Cam's injuries, there's really only one legit on field one and it actually took place in a preseason game in New England with the broken ribs. While he missed the season opener, he would have played had the stage or circumstances been different. The ankle injury was an issue that went back to college, he had just had surgery on it, and it was retwisted by Burfict midseason. When finally somewhat healthy, then came the car accident that wasn't his fault.

Lol OK.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Yep, biggest SB window.

Which is why wasting a 10-6 year cause players decided to be selfish, hold out, take Batman pics, complain about contracts all through training camp and take half the year to get focused make it even more frustrating.

If I was Pete my end of the year speech would have gone like this "I'm proud of you guys for focusing and finishing strong, but what kind of team do you want this talented group of players to be remembered for? Winning another 2-3 SB's and going down as one of the greatest teams of all time.......................or being just another what happened to that team they were so talented stories?"

 

[Clayfighter]

Yep, biggest SB window.

Which is why wasting a 10-6 year cause players decided to be selfish, hold out, take Batman pics, complain about contracts all through training camp and take half the year to get focused make it even more frustrating.

If I was Pete my end of the year speech would have gone like this "I'm proud of you guys for focusing and finishing strong, but what kind of team do you want this talented group of players to be remembered for? Winning another 2-3 SB's and going down as one of the greatest teams of all time.......................or being just another what happened to that team they were so talented stories?"

Wow! Good post! :th2thumbs:

 

[olyfan63]

turnovers and winning close games are luck based now?

lol ok

Most either don't know or choose to forget that Cam and Rivera were 2-14 in one score games at one point. Even if they only win 3 of those 14 they're a .500 team in the first two years right out of the shoot. At the time, Cam haters had a field day with that one, ignoring the realities of the growing pains of a first time head coach. In the end however, those losses lead to not only strengthen Cam and Rivera, but put an underrated team in prime position on the draft board to then draft Kuechly, Lotulelei, and Short.

Why are you guys still here lurking on our boards? Your team is in the SB, and you're concerned about what we are saying about your team? Inferiority complex much?

Other team's fans are here for the same reason as most of us, which is to talk football with a (mostly) intelligent fan base on a board that has lots of high quality discussions. Why act like a tool towards them? Wounded much?

Much of our fan base underestimated Carolina all year. I didn't; but apparently our coaching staff still did in the divisional round, thus Seattle's piss-poor game plan. I, and a lot of other posters here called it before the game, that if Seattle came out with a brain-dead defensive slugfest game plan, which we did, (instead of a shootout game plan attacking their weaknesses) we may as well congratulate Carolina early. Well, congratulations were in order by halftime, down 0-31.

We had a great run in 2013 and a great ride. This year is Carolina's year. I think Denver maybe can keep the SB close, but see Carolina winning it.

Next year, totally different story, I think a focused Seattle team and organization excels and turns the tables. But it looks like we have legit rivalry in the works for NFC supremacy.

 

[Cary Kollins]

turnovers and winning close games are luck based now?

lol ok

Most either don't know or choose to forget that Cam and Rivera were 2-14 in one score games at one point. Even if they only win 3 of those 14 they're a .500 team in the first two years right out of the shoot. At the time, Cam haters had a field day with that one, ignoring the realities of the growing pains of a first time head coach. In the end however, those losses lead to not only strengthen Cam and Rivera, but put an underrated team in prime position on the draft board to then draft Kuechly, Lotulelei, and Short.

Why are you guys still here lurking on our boards? Your team is in the SB, and you're concerned about what we are saying about your team? Inferiority complex much?

Other team's fans are here for the same reason as most of us, which is to talk football with a (mostly) intelligent fan base on a board that has lots of high quality discussions. Why act like a tool towards them? Wounded much?

Much of our fan base underestimated Carolina all year. I didn't; but apparently our coaching staff still did in the divisional round, thus Seattle's piss-poor game plan. I, and a lot of other posters here called it before the game, that if Seattle came out with a brain-dead defensive slugfest game plan, which we did, (instead of a shootout game plan attacking their weaknesses) we may as well congratulate Carolina early. Well, congratulations were in order by halftime, down 0-31.

We had a great run in 2013 and a great ride. This year is Carolina's year. I think Denver maybe can keep the SB close, but see Carolina winning it.

Next year, totally different story, I think a focused Seattle team and organization excels and turns the tables. But it looks like we have legit rivalry in the works for NFC supremacy.

:thirishdrinkers:


I actually like discussion with other fan bases. It's cool to hear from another perspective.

 

[WilsonMVP]

^ Depends on which side you're on, luck or not. I repeatedly called the 2013 Hawks the better team but DeAngelo Williams' fumble luck, and was told 'gtfo'. Rewatch the 2014/15 playoff game and you'll see the ball bounce right back to Russell averting disaster. The October game at the CLink the Hawks were +2 in turnovers. Hard for most fans to be objective when it's short for fanatic.

As for Cam's injuries, there's really only one legit on field one and it actually took place in a preseason game in New England with the broken ribs. While he missed the season opener, he would have played had the stage or circumstances been different. The ankle injury was an issue that went back to college, he had just had surgery on it, and it was retwisted by Burfict midseason. When finally somewhat healthy, then came the car accident that wasn't his fault.

For a whole season yes there is a certain ammount of Luck...btw the Panthers takeaways and turnover margin are the exact same as the Seahawks 2013 SB winning team...39 takeaways and +20 in turnover differential

The year before Panthers only had 26 takeaways which was still top ten....and only 3 in turnover differential.

Heck last year we only had 23 takeaways and +9 in turnover differential when just the year before we had 39 takeaways and +20

You guys WILL go down...its a fact. Only a handful of teams even get to 30 takeaways each year

If you go back to 09

Saints ALSO had 39 takeaways but only +11 in turnover differential--won the superbowl..Packers were actually at 40 takeaways but lost giving up 51 points to the Cards. They were also 2nd ranked defense in the entire league..didnt show up though haha.

I think Carolina and Seattle are definetly the top 2 NFC teams with the window open the most. Vikings would be number 3 if Bridgewater ups his game next year. All 3 have top 5 caliber defenses

 

[WilsonMVP]

^ The Panthers previous GM prior to 2013 certainly had his moments but did not "know when to hold em, know when to fold em". Again releasing Steve Smith and yo-yoing Ted Ginn are two examples of this GM's ability to make tough and shrewd decisions.

It's certainly possible that one or more of those players leave and they MAY not choose to spend big money on Norman and Short, but such a decision would likely not come before 2017. In that hypothetical Short would likely be resigned over Norman IMO.

For 2016, Charles Johnson is unlikely to come back at his production and crazy high cap number and Norman is at a minimum likely to be tagged. I could not see any other potential consternation for even the worriest of worrywarts.

Correct me if im wrong but you guys have 19 mil in free cap space and have to sign Norman this year right? I would be shocked if Norman doesnt get the highest CB contract ever...freaking Maxwell got 11mil a year avg and he is nowhere close to as good.

I dont see it unrealistic for him to get 14mil + a year which would really hit hard unless they push some of that into another year but thats when the other contracts ramp up to. 14 mil would put him right there with Sherman, Peterson, Revis and Haden

I see some tough decisions ahead for the Panthers. If they decide to let Norman go I think that is the deathtoll for that defense next year. Tillman and Finnegan are ALSO FA and you would have almost an entirely new secondary if Norman doesnt come back and its not like that secondary wasnt weak to begin with.