Draft A Potential Franchise QB In April

AROS

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Decent take from Mike Lefko of MyNorthwest.com...


A month ago, as the Seattle Seahawks were about to face the Rams, I wrote that this five-game stretch could be revealing as they chart the course of the franchise for the next two seasons.

Unfortunately, the first four-game losing streak of Pete Carroll’s tenure has made it abundantly clear that the Seahawks must make bold decisions this offseason if they want to avoid falling into the pit of mediocrity.

The most frustrating position in the NFL is being mediocre. It is an existential crisis about whether to embrace the painful process of turning over the roster to acquire high draft picks and a plethora of cheaper players in order to build a contender, or continue in the rut of consistent winning seasons where the ceiling is the first or second round of the playoffs.

It is a tough realization, but these four losses laid bare any guise of the Seahawks believing this group, as currently constructed, is close to being a Super Bowl team. The 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles are Super Bowl-caliber. The Seahawks are decidedly lacking when it comes to matching up against those teams.

Sure, another year for this young core could help, along with better injury luck, but this growth now feels more in line with the Vikings, Saints, Bucs (insert your favorite .500-level team here) if the Seahawks don’t make a change at the most impactful position in the NFL: quarterback.

Geno Smith is a fine quarterback. But when your defense is this porous, you have to do things to overcome that. And the best way to do it is at a position where one guy can have the biggest impact. Yes, the defense has a laundry list of problems that also require fixes, but the league is ripe with examples of how a true franchise quarterback can lift a team into another stratosphere.

The Kansas City Chiefs faced a similar quandary after the 2017 season after three straight 10-plus win seasons led to early playoff exits, including losing in their first game of the postseason in consecutive years.

Alex Smith was solid (in fact really good in 2017!), but the decision that was made a year prior, trading up to draft Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 NFL Draft, led to them moving on from Smith… which turned out to be a generation-defining decision and the greatest move made in the history of that franchise.

From a draft standpoint, the Seahawks will be in similar position this year – somewhere in the middle to back half of the first round. In what is expected to be a QB-rich draft, you don’t have to be picking in the top five to land a potentially transcendent quarterback. Both the Texans and Chiefs proved that with their trades in that 2017 class that led to them landing Deshaun Watson and Mahomes, respectively.

The Cincinnati Bengals are perhaps the best example in the NFL right now as to how a quarterback can be the defining factor in making a team into a Super Bowl contender. It’s not the best comparison for where the Seahawks are right now because Cincinnati did bottom out in order to get Joe Burrow at No. 1 overall. But that decision sprung from a half-decade of wild card berths to nowhere. Now, two AFC title game appearances in his first four seasons has the Bengals’ floor at a higher level than it had been in 30-plus years.

That path of bottoming out isn’t feasible for the Seahawks because of the money they have invested in a handful of players, along with a strong core of back-to-back draft classes that would price themselves out by the time Seattle had built itself back up. Plus, we’re talking about a change needed this offseason, and at this point the Seahawks have too many wins to naturally get to the top of the draft board.

Luckily, it’s a good draft to need a quarterback. In fact, the Seahawks could match what the Chiefs did in drafting a rookie and sitting him for a year in order to keep building around him. With the holes on this team, it will not be a one-year fix, but it certainly can be the catalyst needed for a quick boost into contention.

The Seahawks have been here before – in fact they might still be in the post-Super Bowl-runs malaise of early playoff exits that have hung over this team since 2015 (although I would argue the Russell Wilson trade was a reset and this is now a new era). And we know how quickly it goes from “just being glad to make the playoffs” to mounting frustration as the early playoff losses pile up.

That is the fundamental crux of what the Seahawks have to weigh: What is the best path back to the Super Bowl? This current stretch has shown that the Seahawks are not on the same level as the top tier of teams in the NFC or around the NFL.

At this point, there is enough of a sample size to believe that this current roster lacks the game-separating talent needed at quarterback in order to get there.
 

renofox

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Good article. Where was it last year. Or the years prior when it was obvious that the RW/PC combo wasn't going to get it done.

Many here were ranting for PC to do what it took to trade up for Stroud or Richardson.

The need has been obvious for years and it hasn't happened. I have no reason to believe it will happen in 2024.
 

DeSeahawk

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Imo we must draft a quarterback with our first pick.
Yup, can't see how they can avoid it. Not only because its needed and smart. But it would take some pressure off next year of playoff expectations like we had this year. This year was set up to be real contenders by the moves made to improve from last year. We draft a rookie qb, as long as you see potential and growth, playoffs aren't a must - have .
 

NoGain

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I've been banging this drum for some years now. It's negligent to me that they haven't drafted a single QB since RW. I was kind of peeved when the Bronco pick slid to #5 last spring, believing the top 3 QB's could well be gone by then. If the Hawks finish, say, 8-9 or 7-10, they could easily find themselves in the top 10 of the draft. If you could recoup some draft capital by trading a guy like DK, you would have maximum flexibility to take a stab at one of the top 3 QB's in the draft.

Geno is not the guy, and neither is Lock. We need to draft a QB or even two next spring and decide on a cheaper QB to be a placeholder for them till their ready.
 

CouchLogic

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The future at the helm is not on the team ATM. Ride or die with a Rook with an early pick, don't get cute and hope one slides. Make a trade up if need be to get THE guy.

If they kinda suck, well the backup position just got filled and in 2025 another QB is drafted. Start building the OL and DL in the mean time. Replace Bobby, diggs, and adams.

All while taking a chance on a young QB until one pops. I don't even care who is coaching, just someone reign this mess in, lol.
 

Ozzy

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I’ve been as hard on Geno as anyone on here but when the line holds up he’s fairly good. Is still grab a QB of the future and do everything I can to improve the line. You could keep Geno one more year to bridge
 

WarHawks

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Many of us, myself included, have been saying this for years. Now seeing it in print gives credence and political cover to make it a reality. The only way out of Purgatory is getting a true qbotf. No 3rd round afterthoughts so you can draft a rb in the 1st, or trading back to get a 2nd rd pick that you just traded away. Don't get cute, just Get It Done.
 

SeAhAwKeR4life

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Many of us, myself included, have been saying this for years. Now seeing it in print gives credence and political cover to make it a reality. The only way out of Purgatory is getting a true qbotf. No 3rd round afterthoughts so you can draft a rb in the 1st, or trading back to get a 2nd rd pick that you just traded away. Don't get cute, just Get It Done.
But that's JUST what Pete and John will do and we all know it. Quinn Ewers, maybe JJ Mcarthy at best. Probably will have to trade back up into round 2.

They'll take a DB in round 1.
 

bigskydoc

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I think they truly believed this was the year to contend with a dominant defense, and a solid, ball control plus splash play offense. They got the offense they expected, but the defense has not lived up to its potential on paper.

I’d like to see a massive rebuild this offseason. I don’t know if the QBOTF will fall to us in this draft, but I trust John and Pete and whoever is in charge of evaluating QB prospects to make the right choice in 24 or 25.

This offseason, I would like them to take a hard look at every player and their produced value over replacement, not their potential on paper, in light of their contract.

Cut or trade every one of the underperformers, even if it makes us temporarily worse.

We should have rebuilt from the ground up after the Russell Wilson trade gave us a plethora of picks, and should have given us a lot of cap space. Let’s get out of the cap hell we are in, build a team, and stop patching holes with expensive individuals.
 

Jac

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This needs to happen (should have already happened), but this unfortunately doesn't align with Carroll's window. There's no reason to think he won't "one player away" it for the 2024 season in lieu of investing in a rookie QB that'll be a multi-year investment.
 

WarHawks

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What this all points to is that it's time for Pete to put his ego aside and do what's right for the team long term.

It's time for him to draft a qbotf, and begin thinking about his successor, who will help coach the new qb up. Pete has to realize we're not just a player or two away from being a contender so he can retire in a blaze of sb glory. We're just not.

Build the team the right way. Will he? Doubtful, but one can hope.
 

bmorepunk

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It sucks that we're back to this. Hopefully we'll see this team get a legit multi-year quality QB in the not too distant future. The Bears haven't had one since like 1948 and it's been a drag on them.
 

IndyHawk

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QBOTF
Doesn't help if you have a Waldron as OC and a weak D not providing
TOs and more chances at TDs by stopping opponents drives.
I'd be happy to get Jake Browning somehow with a different OC no need
to train, coach and deal with a rookies mistakes. You see how many of these
so called next great QBs bust?
If a Purdy fell to us in the late rounds great! otherwise I'm content to just plug
and play until it sorts itself out.
 

IndyHawk

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It sucks that we're back to this. Hopefully we'll see this team get a legit multi-year quality QB in the not too distant future. The Bears haven't had one since like 1948 and it's been a drag on them.
The Bears won a SB in 85.. How did that happen?
 

bmorepunk

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The Bears won a SB in 85.. How did that happen?
Best defense of all time, Walter Payton and the QBs didn't make the worst errors at the wrong times. McMahon had a "career year" throwing 15 TDs to 11 INTs on an almost 57% completion rate.
 

IndyHawk

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Best defense of all time, Walter Payton and the QBs didn't make the worst errors at the wrong times. McMahon had a "career year" throwing 15 TDs to 11 INTs on an almost 57% completion rate.
Great D, Good RB and a decent game manager..
This all sounds familiar doesn't it?
 

hoxrox

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I think they truly believed this was the year to contend with a dominant defense, and a solid, ball control plus splash play offense. They got the offense they expected, but the defense has not lived up to its potential on paper.

I’d like to see a massive rebuild this offseason. I don’t know if the QBOTF will fall to us in this draft, but I trust John and Pete and whoever is in charge of evaluating QB prospects to make the right choice in 24 or 25.

This offseason, I would like them to take a hard look at every player and their produced value over replacement, not their potential on paper, in light of their contract.

Cut or trade every one of the underperformers, even if it makes us temporarily worse.

We should have rebuilt from the ground up after the Russell Wilson trade gave us a plethora of picks, and should have given us a lot of cap space. Let’s get out of the cap hell we are in, build a team, and stop patching holes with expensive individuals.
The FO had the perfect opportunity to truly rebuild, and blow up the team after the Russ trade. But their "patching" strategy was the fatal flaw, imo. Contracts are up in 2025 - I don't think they have much time left now to rebuild properly.
 
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