Geno wasn’t good this game

[keasley45]

It’s the timing of Geno’s mistakes that is baffling at times. Brock and Salk had a lengthy discussion about Geno that was fair. 90% of the stuff Geno does is fantastic. The 10%? Is often just backbreaker stuff. Brock made the point that a lot of the mistakes yesterday were stuff a guy 12 years in the league just don’t make. His decision making is often just bad. He also does some really great things at times too like we saw yesterday.

I got demolished and called a hater for saying he’s in the 12-17 range yet I was spot on imo.

The pick with Barner was Geno’s fault. It wasn’t all his fault but he shouldn’t have thrown it even if Barner was held. The only pick that wasn’t his fault was the JSN one.

Not all stats are equal. Mahomes has a ton of picks this year but he has literally zero outside weapons, a bad running game and one aging TE. You know what else he is? The best red zone QB in the league.

Ozzy.

The pick in the endzone was an attempt to throw the ball away and his arm was hit. Could he have tossed it away sooner? Sure. I personally wish he had. But he DIDNT try to make a play there.

I also think the JSN int was more his fault than folks have stated. The media in particular has defended him on it. I think he should have pulled the ball down and looked elsewhere. It was an example of his primary flaw - standing flat footed and locking into one of his top 3. I hold my breath EVERYTIME he does it.

But the Barner INT? The receiver was held on a play where he had to throw with anticipation given the rush. He couldnt antisipate Barner would be slowed up by a step and that it wouldnt get called. The replay CLEARLY shows Barner being locked up and prevented from getting to the point Geno threw to.

No doubt Geno had some bad plays. He also didnt have the luxury of having ANY time to do anything but make split second decisions.

The Barner INt was well placed, if not for the hold.

 

[keasley45]

It’s the timing of Geno’s mistakes that is baffling at times. Brock and Salk had a lengthy discussion about Geno that was fair. 90% of the stuff Geno does is fantastic. The 10%? Is often just backbreaker stuff. Brock made the point that a lot of the mistakes yesterday were stuff a guy 12 years in the league just don’t make. His decision making is often just bad. He also does some really great things at times too like we saw yesterday.

I got demolished and called a hater for saying he’s in the 12-17 range yet I was spot on imo.

The pick with Barner was Geno’s fault. It wasn’t all his fault but he shouldn’t have thrown it even if Barner was held. The only pick that wasn’t his fault was the JSN one.

Not all stats are equal. Mahomes has a ton of picks this year but he has literally zero outside weapons, a bad running game and one aging TE. You know what else he is? The best red zone QB in the league.

And to the timing of the errors? The field is condensed in the redzone. Geno has zero run support, would kill for Mahome's O line and Andy Reid calling plays for him.

Sand those things, when the defense knows we are going to pass (because thats the only way we can move the ball) and they have significantly less field to cover, the windows become tighter, the rush becomes hotter, and the chances of success on Offense (this offense) go way down.

 

[toffee]

For one reason or another, Geno hasn't been good for a few games.

 

[keasley45]

For one reason or another, Geno hasn't been good for a few games.

When you only have one thing to lean on on offense, every week gets harder and harder.

Do folks realize how much we lean on the pass game? Hint - more than anyone else in the league. And its not because we have a run game thats a proven alternative and we pass as a luxury. Its our only option. Defenses know how to stop it and have almost every week.

If you are virtually only relying on a passing attack, it's infintely harder to scheme plays that actually yield a tactical advantage. Its simple math. After a period, without a rush game to legitimately threaten a defense, you run out of plays to win through the air, and thats 100% what you are seeing.

Its hard to win when your offense only threatens though the air. Ask Dan Marino.
Dude is one of the all time greats but averaged 25 TDs to 15 INT a year for his career. Why, because all but the most hardcore Dolphins fans can name a running back from the period he played alongside that was any good.

That in no way is a comparison between Geno and Marino. But it is an example of how even if you are a HOF qb, if your offense is a one trick poney, you are bound to struggle. Add to that, a defense that was also never a gane changer and even the great Marino couldn't put up much beyond HOF numbers.

On the flip, his counterpart in Buffalo had both a rushing attack and stout defense and managed to go to multiple SBs. Was Kelly Dans equal? No. But the team around him brought better results.

And no, that's not to compare Geno to J Kelly either.

It IS to say that if you can't run and cant defend even a HOF qb can struggle to make a difference.

 

[JayhawkMike]

Sometimes you find a guy in the draft who has won wherever they go. They aren’t necessarily the fasted or strongest. But they are just winners.

Geno is not that guy.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I'm sure a few jokers would've wanted Stafford benched too, but that's not how the sport of football works, and legit coaches know that.

 

[Seahawk_Dan]

Sure, it's an impressive amount of yards, but if you're throwing for nearly 5000 yards but got yourself less than 20TD's then what's the point? Last I check the game was won with points not yards. Just means you're moving the ball and not getting anything done with it.

I'd rather he have 2900 yards but racked up 40+ TD's.

 

[Fresno Hawk]

How old was Stafford in 2012. That was 12 years ago. 12 years ago those numbers were harder to get. Alot of rules have changed since then. These numbers are not comparable imop.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Sure, it's an impressive amount of yards, but if you're throwing for nearly 5000 yards but got yourself less than 20TD's then what's the point? Last I check the game was won with points not yards. Just means you're moving the ball and not getting anything done with it.

I'd rather he have 2900 yards but racked up 40+ TD's.

Oh, me too, believe me. My point is NOT to say that I think passing yards are impressive or important compared to scoring production. My point is that there are so many examples of very, very, very talented quarterbacks performing statistically about as well as Geno is now when they're faced with inadequate support from their team.

It's hard to score without much support. Matthew Stafford moved the ball well and Megatron had almost 2000 receiving yards. At the end of the day, though - bad defense, bad line, and unable to rush the ball effectively. Even prime Stafford can't overcome that and, surprise, his statline looks just like Geno's does in 2023/2024.

Stafford didn't lack talent or skill. It's just not realistic to expect more when the rest of the team is that bad.

Our supporting cast IS that bad right now. With upside on the defense, but as it stands, they're just as putrid. I don't fault Stafford for his harsher Lions seasons, and I don't fault Geno for not putting up great scoring stats now.

 

[Maelstrom787]

How old was Stafford in 2012. That was 12 years ago. 12 years ago those numbers were harder to get. Alot of rules have changed since then. These numbers are not comparable imop.

This is the actually the exact opposite of true. Passing was EASIER in 2012.

Since 2020, passing production has been plummeting at an extreme rate.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Geno Smith has 11 passing touchdowns.

Does that sound horrible to you?

It's tied for 10th best in the NFL currently. IT IS A DIFFERENT LEAGUE NOW.

 

[Seahawk_Dan]

Oh, me too, believe me. My point is NOT to say that I think passing yards are impressive or important compared to scoring production. My point is that there are so many examples of very, very, very talented quarterbacks performing statistically about as well as Geno is now when they're faced with inadequate support from their team.

It's hard to score without much support. Matthew Stafford moved the ball well and Megatron had almost 2000 receiving yards. At the end of the day, though - bad defense, bad line, and unable to rush the ball effectively. Even prime Stafford can't overcome that and, surprise, his statline looks just like Geno's does in 2023/2024.

Stafford didn't lack talent or skill. It's just not realistic to expect more when the rest of the team is that bad.

Our supporting cast IS that bad right now. With upside on the defense, but as it stands, they're just as putrid. I don't fault Stafford for his harsher Lions seasons, and I don't fault Geno for not putting up great scoring stats now.

I’m not the biggest Geno fan like you Mael, but I do agree that the key problem is not Geno. If he had even a basic, like serviceable line keeping him upright then he would hardly be a point of contention.

The problem, as it stands to me, is the unwillingness to take the offensive line seriously as a real investment by the team. Maybe if Geno has a better line those 4800 yards be paired with those 40+ TDs

 

[Fresno Hawk]

This is the actually the exact opposite of true. Passing was EASIER in 2012.

Since 2020, passing production has been plummeting at an extreme rate.

View attachment 68046
View attachment 68047

This chart doesn't tell the whole story about how much harder it was for QB'S to pass from 12 years ago. All it shows is total offense has started to plummet since 2020. It dose also show from 2012 to 2020 passing offense was on a ridiculous rise. For what ever reason 2022 it started to dip. Wich could be anything.

 

[Ozzy]

When you only have one thing to lean on on offense, every week gets harder and harder.

Do folks realize how much we lean on the pass game? Hint - more than anyone else in the league. And its not because we have a run game thats a proven alternative and we pass as a luxury. Its our only option. Defenses know how to stop it and have almost every week.

If you are virtually only relying on a passing attack, it's infintely harder to scheme plays that actually yield a tactical advantage. Its simple math. After a period, without a rush game to legitimately threaten a defense, you run out of plays to win through the air, and thats 100% what you are seeing.

Its hard to win when your offense only threatens though the air. Ask Dan Marino.
Dude is one of the all time greats but averaged 25 TDs to 15 INT a year for his career. Why, because all but the most hardcore Dolphins fans can name a running back from the period he played alongside that was any good.

That in no way is a comparison between Geno and Marino. But it is an example of how even if you are a HOF qb, if your offense is a one trick poney, you are bound to struggle. Add to that, a defense that was also never a gane changer and even the great Marino couldn't put up much beyond HOF numbers.

On the flip, his counterpart in Buffalo had both a rushing attack and stout defense and managed to go to multiple SBs. Was Kelly Dans equal? No. But the team around him brought better results.

And no, that's not to compare Geno to J Kelly either.

It IS to say that if you can't run and cant defend even a HOF qb can struggle to make a difference.

Ok this is a side point but we’ve debated Russ so many times I have to ask. You also say Russ was wildly overrated. If this argument is true for Geno and that’s why his numbers are bad then you have to agree Wilson’s 2017 season was historically good then to be consistent right? It was one of the worst rushing offenses in nfl history yet Russ had 34 touchdowns and 11 Ints, almost 4,000 yards, near 100 passer rating etc. They also didn’t have a good defense.

 

[Fresno Hawk]

Geno Smith has 11 passing touchdowns.

Does that sound horrible to you?

It's tied for 10th best in the NFL currently. IT IS A DIFFERENT LEAGUE NOW.

Isn't this the same as saying, he's only tied for 10th best in the league because he's had double the amount of passing attempts as every other team. And if he didn't have as many attempts would he even have 11 TDs and be tied for 10th best. All his numbers would probably drop.

 

[Maelstrom787]

This chart doesn't tell the whole story about how much harder it was for QB'S to pass from 12 years ago. All it shows is total offense has started to plummet since 2020. It dose also show from 2012 to 2020 passing offense was on a ridiculous rise. For what ever reason 2022 it started to dip. Wich could be anything.

No, it shows passing offense. Not total offense. Pass offense is isolated in both charts. Yards per dropback does not include rush attempts. Also, it started to dip in 2020, not 2022.

There were 24 3000 yard passers in 2012 and 19 in 2023. That is WITH AN EXTRA GAME IN 2023.

The top passer (yardage) in 2012, Brees, threw for 5177 yards, 43 TDs, and 19 INTs. The top passer in 2023, Tua, threw for 4624 yards, 29 TDs, and 14 INTs.

In 2024, we have the top passing yards per game at 268.2 as a team. That would've been 7th best in 2012, and over 40 yards a game below the top team, New Orleans.

Sorry, but it's just objectively not true that passing was harder in 2012. Passing stats were significantly better league-wide.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Isn't this the same as saying, he's only tied for 10th best in the league because he's had double the amount of passing attempts as every other team. And if he didn't have as many attempts would he even have 11 TDs and be tied for 10th best. All his numbers would probably drop.

Well, yeah. It's a volume stat. But people are quoting the volume stat. If people want to talk TD%, that's obviously much worse, but the argument that I'm making is that efficiency stats usually suffer heavily when a quarterback has an unacceptable level of assistance from the rest of the team. Stafford in 2012 is a really great example of that.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Ok this is a side point but we’ve debated Russ so many times I have to ask. You also say Russ was wildly overrated. If this argument is true for Geno and that’s why his numbers are bad then you have to agree Wilson’s 2017 season was historically good then to be consistent right? It was one of the worst rushing offenses in nfl history yet Russ had 34 touchdowns and 11 Ints, almost 4,000 yards, near 100 passer rating etc. They also didn’t have a good defense.

There are 2 points to make here that add some context to the stats:

1. Seattle's defense was fine in 2017. 11th in yards allowed and 14th in points allowed while facing the 7th most plays in the NFL. 5th best pass yards allowed per attempt, 11th best yards allowed per rush attempt, 12th in turnover percent, 13th in sacks. That's arguably a top 10 unit when considering how often they were on the field. It's objectively a top 10 unit on a per-play basis.

2. The average passing stats were just a bit higher than they are now, but not much. Only a slight adjustment needed there.

 

[knownone]

2017 is good case study for traditional metrics vs. advanced. It's technically Wilson's second worst season (with Seattle) from an efficiency stand point: 61% cmp, 44 SR. Wilson's rushing ability also took some of the pressure off him in the passing game. So it's hard to compare his situation then with Geno, who, while mobile, doesn't quite have prime Wilson's wheels.

It's fair to call 2017 a great season for Wilson.

 

[keasley45]

Ok this is a side point but we’ve debated Russ so many times I have to ask. You also say Russ was wildly overrated. If this argument is true for Geno and that’s why his numbers are bad then you have to agree Wilson’s 2017 season was historically good then to be consistent right? It was one of the worst rushing offenses in nfl history yet Russ had 34 touchdowns and 11 Ints, almost 4,000 yards, near 100 passer rating etc. They also didn’t have a good defense.

Their defense was middle of the pack. definitely average at worst

But that WAS a great year from Russ comsidering the injuries we had at RB.

But as his critics have said, it was great because he was doing what Russ did best - running AND passing. He tipped the apple cart and spoiled the bunch when he started talking about how the FO was holding him bac.. how he wanted to work in a system like Sean Peytons (read - one where he could do Brees type things). All of that was rediculous considering he could never play the cerebral game.

Had he never tried to make himself out to be something he wasnt and just played ball the 2012 - 2017 way, half of the debate about him wouldnt exist.