Geno Smith the headcase

CallMeADawg

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I answered that question in the very post you quoted.

As far as I can see, the only one saying that he “has been doing things that no other QB’s could ever possibly do,” is you, in setting up your superlative straw man.
Exactly.

Not only that, apparently me asking for some good faith debating from Geno detractors means I think he’s a top 3 QB!

Like what bizarro world crazy crap is that?
 

GetNjigbaWithIt

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Geno is Geno. I don't think anybody who wants to see Howell actually thinks he is any better. I think some people just want to see what he is so the team can figure out the way forward. I don't think it is quite time for that yet, but I am in the camp that doesn't think Geno is anything more than a stopgap. He has elite tools but doesn't look elite often enough to believe he is our future at 34. He is way too erratic and I don't see that changing at this stage of his career.
200
 

knownone

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The issue for people using metrics is that they treat them as rankings. Passer rating, Elo, QBR, etc., are not qualitative QB rankings. No sane person looks at Passer rating and assumes Derrick Carr is 6th best QB in the league. These metrics measure a specific thing, so you have to consider context when using them. That's why, despite their flaws, more contextual metrics like PFF are worth using in conjunction.

Most people in the analytics community look at our O-line, pressures, rushing attack, and game situations, and conclude that Geno is probably undervalued. The Ringer has him as the 9th best QB in the league. I believe he's 11th in PFF.

It's also worth noting the same people who are claiming Wilson is doing well with the Steelers while ignoring his statistical rankings, are now using statistical rankings to support their often negative opinions of Geno. For example, Wilson is 29th in QBR, 36th in SR, 24th in PFF and Ringer, but golly, he's having a great season.
 

keasley45

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12th by who's admission? I've seen a million lists and he's ranked right about the 15 to 19 spot (about right). Coaching staff was fired because the owner was tired of average 9-8 seasons. Shocking I know.

4th quarter comebacks? Good for him, but with more opportunities there's more chances.

And what does being ranked #12 even mean? I thought nobody else in the NFL could do what Geno did. Does being #12 mean that at least 11 others can?

Here's a quote that describes Geno perfectly.

Smith spent most of 2023 defining the Dalton Scale, occupying the space that separates teams who have a playoff-worthy quarterback from those who don’t. It was a step down for Smith after he posted a career year that was so impressive, it prompted the Buccaneers to hire his quarterbacks coach as their offensive coordinator. Smith simply wasn’t as good as without Dave Canales in his corner, vacillating between a quarterback who could light up a defense and lead Seattle to victory and a signal-caller who couldn’t string together enough great throws to be anything more than the representation of the NFL’s quarterbacking median. The contract he earned in 2022 doesn’t look bad yet, but Smith needs to be better in 2024 to convince Seattle they don’t need to look elsewhere for options.
Youve managed to respond twice now without answering the question.

When in the history of the league has an average qb taken a team with a league worst defense, running game and o line and gotten them a winning record?

You wont answer it will you?

Because you cant

Because it defies logic.

And I used about the exact same scale the FO did when they paid him as the 12th best qb in the game.

You wanna play quoted? Here's one:

Among QBs who were pressured at least 50 times last year, only one QB had an On-Target rate in the top five, while also having one of the five lowest sack rates when pressured, per SIS:

Geno Smith

So how do all of the 'he is not great under pressure criticisms sit when he was the only qb in the league to do the above?

Answer? Again , not well.

Are you familiar with the adjusted completion percentage rate? In 2022, the year he was league best in completion percentage, it was 77.4. Last year, the year he 'regressed' so much it was 77.8.

That number adjusts for passes that SHOULD have been completed (accurate) but for no fault of the QB, weren't. So when you take away the drops, the dude has been top 5 accurate since becoming a starter. Better than Purdy, Mahomes, Goff, Herbert, Stafford, etc, etc, etc.

So to add to the question about how an average qb takes a team with bottom 3 D, O line and running game to a winning record, also please explain how despite being average, he manager to finish at an elite level in terms of accuracy.

'AVERAGE' qbs dont lead the league in that category when they ARENT pressured.

But to your insistence that he's the 18th ot 19th best QB, who are the 3 qbs above and below him and hiw do they rank in accuracy? How many of those '15 to 20' qbs are top 5 in ANY category.

I dont even have to look because the answer woukd be zero.

And thats because you insist on flat ignoring the fact that Geno plays with

One of the leagues worst lines

One of the leagues worst run games

And

One of the leagues worst defenses ( averaged over 3 years now)

Your denial of the impact THOSE factors have on the performance of a QB and ignoring of the fact that Geno, when thise factors are taken into account (in addition to drops) is top 5 in terms of accuracy makes any critique you bring of the dude seem silly.

IF ANYTHING, in playing with the tools he has between the line, D and run game, we have seen the WORST of Geno. The best id TBD and will be shown when thise other parts improve.
 

warden

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Geno is exactly what this team needs at this present moment of time. A player that does everything possible to keep things going while the team goes through a rebuild and growing pains. A player that is mentally tough enough to put up with all the whinny fans BS and abuse. Exactly what we need right now.
 

Ozzy

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So I'll ask it again. If having him in the 10-20 range is outlandish what is he? Because that's the take that drives a lot of you guys wild.
 

keasley45

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Lol. No, he wouldn't be gone because there were no alternatives. His contract came up and nobody was interested in him and Seattle signed him for a team friendly deal while they rebuild. Why were no other teams interested and why did he get paid so little?

You keep throwing out the winning record puke when its as close as a team can possibly be to average or .500. 9-8 isnt some remarkable achievement. Its average.

And let me ask you a question. You seem so amazed at what Geno has accomplished in his two years of starting. Like he's a miracle worker or something. Do you think any QB in past history or currently could have replicated what Geno has done the past two seasons under the same circumstances? I don't believe you do. I on the other hand could list a page full. Just because other QB's haven't had to do something that Geno did doesn't mean they couldn't.

9-8 no matter how grandoise you try to make it makes Geno and the team he was on look,,,,,average.
How much does a league bottom rung game, defense and o line contribute to a .500 record? Bro, if you need to be convinced that being the worst in the league in 3 MAJOR performance categories isnt enough to relegate you to the dregs of the league, there is nothing more to be said here.

The ONLY reason we havent been a 3 or 4 win team the last 2 years has been Geno Smith.

But apparently turning garbage into a winning record is something any average , 18th ranked QB can do.
 

SoulfishHawk

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They just gave up all of 17 points to the niners, on the road. This is not the worst defense, and they are on the rise. I can't imagine anyone being happy with how the offense played that first half.
 

Ozzy

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EPA has been mentioned as a marker for Geno yet he was 16th before yesterday. Doubt that number went up. This adjusts for pass protection, drops etc. Right where I think he should be ranked give or take a few. So which advanced stats are objective? The ones that fit your narrative or the ones that don't? I know EPA is heavily valued around here.....is it not now because it has Geno at 16?

I think he is worse than Burrow, Allen, Daniels, Lamar, Mahomes, Goff, Purdy, Herbert, Mayfield, Stroud. I think you can make an argument for him anywhere after this. Guys like Love, Hurts, Geno, Kyler, Tua, Russ, Stafford etc. are in the next goup and while I have my order I'm fine with wherever you put him.
 

Chukarhawk

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Everyone wants Geno to succeed. He has the physical tools to be elite. He throws the prettiest ball in the NFL for my money. He's just inconsistent. He's good enough right now with all the other issues going on that it's hard to get too worked up about him. Interestingly most other folks around the NFL have him ranked between 15 to 20th in the league. Pretty much where most people here have him ranked.




 
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Ozzy

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How much does a league bottom rung game, defense and o line contribute to a .500 record? Bro, if you need to be convinced that being the worst in the league in 3 MAJOR performance categories isnt enough to relegate you to the dregs of the league, there is nothing more to be said here.

The ONLY reason we havent been a 3 or 4 win team the last 2 years has been Geno Smith.

But apparently turning garbage into a winning record is something any average , 18th ranked QB can do.

Where are you getting league worst run game? The advance metrics have them higher then that. They were 18th before this fantastic showing against the Niners.
 

keasley45

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So I'll ask it again. If having him in the 10-20 range is outlandish what is he? Because that's the take that drives a lot of you guys wild.
Ozzy, come on, bro.

10 to 20 is a generous range. I have consistently said he has played anywhere between 9 and 13th which says a lot given the quality of defense oline and run game we have (and OC last year).

And therein lies the problem. If you can finish even 12th or 13th with the D, O line and run game we have, doesnt that kind of say that if yiur run game defense and o line were even top 15, that the qb woukd be better?

As it stands right now with 2 of those 3 pieces STILL sucking, the dude is one of the most accurate qbs in the league when you adjust for drops. By the way we are 9th worst in the league this year in drops.

But the critics dont want to factor that in when evaluating Geno.

So let me rehash

9th worst at catching the ball

Near league worst in rushing and defense

And one of the bottom 2 or 3 o lines in the league,

And the 18th best qb in the league is top 5 in accuracy depsite being one of the most pressure and sacked???

Yeah. Ok

Hysterical.
 

Ozzy

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Because there are many metrics that put him in that range. EPA accounts for a large part of your argument and they have him 16th.

Top 5 in accuracy? Does that account for leading the league by a wide margin in interception worthy throws because he does.

You guys are killing everyone else for ignoring certain metrics while doing the exact same thing.

That's my point. Geno can confirm any priors for anyone.

They don't have the bottom 2-3 defense. They do have a bad running game and the offensive line isn't good either but again many metrics account for that.

I have Geno in the 10-15 range after looking at all the starters. I think that's reasonable and in a lot of ways Seattle is lucky to have that coming off having a guy who was top 3 in the league or close to it for a decade. Many teams go years in between good QB's.

Apologies if you think Geno being in the 10-15 range is hysterical. But like the rest of the NFL landscape that's where I have him.
 

Ozzy

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Everyone wants Geno to succeed. He has the physical tools to be elite. He throws the prettiest ball in the NFL for my money. He's just inconsistent. He's good enough right now with all the other issues going on that it's hard to get too worked up about him. Interestingly most other folks around the NFL have him ranked between 15 to 20th in the league. Pretty much where most people here have him ranked.




That is my point over and over but its view as crazy. Maybe the entire league is wrong about Geno? I doubt it.
 

knownone

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EPA has been mentioned as a marker for Geno yet he was 16th before yesterday. Doubt that number went up. This adjusts for pass protection, drops etc. Right where I think he should be ranked give or take a few. So which advanced stats are objective? The ones that fit your narrative or the ones that don't? I know EPA is heavily valued around here.....is it not now because it has Geno at 16?

I think he is worse than Burrow, Allen, Daniels, Lamar, Mahomes, Goff, Purdy, Herbert, Mayfield, Stroud. I think you can make an argument for him anywhere after this. Guys like Love, Hurts, Geno, Kyler, Tua, Russ, Stafford etc. are in the next goup and while I have my order I'm fine with wherever you put him.
You are mixing up metrics. He was 16th in EPA/Play. He's 9th in EPA. And he's 7th when low-leverage plays are down-weighted. Meaning, Geno has the 7th best EPA in the league when you account for game situations.
 

Ozzy

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The issue for people using metrics is that they treat them as rankings. Passer rating, Elo, QBR, etc., are not qualitative QB rankings. No sane person looks at Passer rating and assumes Derrick Carr is 6th best QB in the league. These metrics measure a specific thing, so you have to consider context when using them. That's why, despite their flaws, more contextual metrics like PFF are worth using in conjunction.

Most people in the analytics community look at our O-line, pressures, rushing attack, and game situations, and conclude that Geno is probably undervalued. The Ringer has him as the 9th best QB in the league. I believe he's 11th in PFF.

It's also worth noting the same people who are claiming Wilson is doing well with the Steelers while ignoring his statistical rankings, are now using statistical rankings to support their often negative opinions of Geno. For example, Wilson is 29th in QBR, 36th in SR, 24th in PFF and Ringer, but golly, he's having a great season.
Maybe the sheet I'm looking at is old? Regardless he's right in the range I said he is.

I listed the guys I feel are objectively better and the vast majority of the football world agrees. Maybe they're all wrong though?
 

Ozzy

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Kevin Cole's model on Twitter has Geno 19th in efficiency.
 

flv2

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I had Smith somewhere around the 15-20 group for best QB before the season started. There were also a bunch of younger, cheaper QBs who could usurp him. If I was able to acquire any current QB of choice now for 2025 and 2026 then Smith probably wouldn't crack my top 20. However, those QBs couldn't be acquired cheaply and Smith is a value-for-money option.
 

rigelian

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Geno's biggest strength is also his greatest weakness...sometimes you need to quit on the play and throw it out of bounds instead of into the arms of a defender.
 
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