Geno Smith the headcase

[Mistashoesta]

 

[knownone]

Maybe the sheet I'm looking at is old? Regardless he's right in the range I said he is.

I listed the guys I feel are objectively better and the vast majority of the football world agrees. Maybe they're all wrong though?

Nope. You are just looking at the wrong stat. Geno's ranked 9th in EPA, and 16th in EPA/Play (EPA divided by the # of plays). The difference is a product of Seattle's failed 4th downs and redzone turnovers. Overall, though, Geno's one of the best QBs in the league in points added.

The vast majority of the football world does not agree with you. I'm pretty invested in the analytics sphere, and most reputable analytic sources, PFF, the Athletic (Sando), the Ringer (Ruiz), are higher on Geno than the average media member. In fact, I'd be willing to bet the more invested in analytics you are, the higher you are on Geno, and the lower you are on guys like Mayfield and Goff.

 

[Ozzy]

Nope. You are just looking at the wrong stat. Geno's ranked 9th in EPA, and 16th in EPA/Play (EPA divided by the # of plays). The difference is a product of Seattle's failed 4th downs and redzone turnovers. Overall, though, Geno's one of the best QBs in the league in points added.

The vast majority of the football world does not agree with you. I'm pretty invested in the analytics sphere, and most reputable analytic sources, PFF, the Athletic (Sando), the Ringer (Ruiz), are higher on Geno than the average media member. In fact, I'd be willing to bet the more invested in analytics you are, the higher you are on Geno, and the lower you are on guys like Mayfield and Goff.

Most of the nfl world has him top 10? Yeah that’s objectively false. I just multiple advance metrics guys have him lower than I do.

I’m invested as much as you are and almost everyone has him in the 10-20 range.

But tell me where is he then if 10 is crazy? Where does the rest of the league put Geno?

 

[toffee]

Geno Smith will never win the Hearts and Minds of posters on dot net, the best he can do after a few wins, "Geno had a good game but can Macdonald insert Howell just to see how much better Howell can do?" Geno should have his agent talk to the Giants or Raiders of the league, potentially for a fatter paycheck, and may even become a fan favorite.

 

[Ozzy]

According to Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic, NFL executives rank Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks in Tier 3, tied with Derek Carr for 20th in the league. This tier is for quarterbacks who are legitimate starters but need a stronger running game or defense to win.

Weird the people who are paid to run NFL franchises have Geno at 20 which is lower than I have him. I put more stock in execs than I do a guy on twitter. Again in a lot of ways we're lucky to have him. I just dont think he's an elite guy and like I said the league agrees.

Knowone you mentioned PFF and guess where they ranked him last year? 14th. Right where I said he ranks.

 

[knownone]

Most of the nfl world has him top 10? Yeah that’s objectively false. I just multiple advance metrics guys have him lower than I do.

I’m invested as much as you are and almost everyone has him in the 10-20 range.

But tell me where is he then if 10 is crazy? Where does the rest of the league put Geno?

According to Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic, NFL executives rank Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks in Tier 3, tied with Derek Carr for 20th in the league. This tier is for quarterbacks who are legitimate starters but need a stronger running game or defense to win.

Weird the people who are paid to run NFL franchises have Geno at 20 which is lower than I have him. I put more stock in execs than I do a guy on twitter. Again in a lot of ways we're lucky to have him. I just dont think he's an elite guy and like I said the league agrees.

Knowone you mentioned PFF and guess where they ranked him last year? 14th. Right where I said he ranks.

First, I didn't argue that Geno was top 10 anywhere in my comment.

Second, you clearly aren't as invested in analytics since you are mixing up metrics and using useless stats like QB Elo.

Third, listen to that podcast, Sando made the point that some GMs were higher on Geno than others, aggregate rankings do not imply consensus. Here's one of the sources used earlier against Geno mocking where he's ranked

Fourth, Geno was 8th in PFF in 2022. What does that variance mean to you?

 

[Ozzy]

First, I didn't argue that Geno was top 10 anywhere in my comment.

Second, you clearly aren't as invested in analytics since you are mixing up metrics and using useless stats like QB Elo.

Third, listen to that podcast, Sando made the point that some GMs were higher on Geno than others, aggregate rankings do not imply consensus. Here's one of the sources used earlier against Geno mocking where he's ranked

Fourth, Geno was 8th in PFF in 2022. What does that variance mean to you?

He had a monster 2022, his 14th in 2023 is accurate.

You’re twisting what the execs said to fit what you want it to say. Of course some are higher and some are lower. He still finished 20th lol.

I used the stats you favor and he still fell in the range I said he did. I don’t know what to tell you. I’m with the vast majority on where Geno ranks and you have a massive problem with it. Whatever.

I’ll ask it for the 4th time since you have such a massive problem with me ranking him 10-20 where do you rank him then if that is an absurd take?

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Geno's biggest strength is also his greatest weakness...sometimes you need to quit on the play and throw it out of bounds instead of into the arms of a defender.

He also needs to take the checkdowns when he can. They are there for the taking. The previous guy did that crap way too much. Live for the 4 or 5 yard dump off. Doesn't always have to be 15-30 yards downfield. Dink and dunk works too.
And NO, I'm not blasting him at all. Just something I hear them talk about a lot on 710, and it makes a lot of sense.

But, I suspect I'll get told I'm an idiot, Geno Hater etc. So be it.........

 

[toffee]

According to Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic, NFL executives rank Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks in Tier 3, tied with Derek Carr for 20th in the league. This tier is for quarterbacks who are legitimate starters but need a stronger running game or defense to win.

Weird the people who are paid to run NFL franchises have Geno at 20 which is lower than I have him. I put more stock in execs than I do a guy on twitter. Again in a lot of ways we're lucky to have him. I just dont think he's an elite guy and like I said the league agrees.

Knowone you mentioned PFF and guess where they ranked him last year? 14th. Right where I said he ranks.

Tier 3 and 20th ranked? A tier 3 QB clearly couldn't bring the team to the promised land, could he? Time to play Sam Howell, and not waste him away on the sideline.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

It started to feel like time, that's for sure. I'm good rolling with Geno the rest of the season. But in 2025, it's time to move on. Just my OWN thought on it. Which means little to nothing

 

[knownone]

He had a monster 2022, his 14th in 2023 is accurate.

You’re twisting what the execs said to fit what you want it to say. Of course some are higher and some are lower. He still finished 20th lol.

I used the stats you favor and he still fell in the range I said he did. I don’t know what to tell you. I’m with the vast majority on where Geno ranks and you have a massive problem with it. Whatever.

I’ll ask it for the 4th time since you have such a massive problem with me ranking him 10-20 where do you rank him then if that is an absurd take? It should be easy to answer

Oh dear... How is his 2023 year more accurate than 2022? Do explain that logic, as that's a claim that requires evidence, especially considering Geno suffered a significant injury in 2023.

No. I didn't twist anyone's words, Kid. I paraphrased Mike Sando, a point he made about the problem with his tiers. Sharp highlighted that in the twitter post I included. What are your thoughts on that?

Where did you ask this the first time? Are you confusing me with someone else? And no, I don't have any problem with where you, or anyone else, ranks Geno. I was just highlighting that you were confusing EPA with EPA/Play, and that the numbers actually implied the reverse of your argument—Geno is top 10 in EPA.

Similarly, I've made this point a lot. I don't like rankings. I find them meaningless. For me the question is what can't Geno do? And my answer is not much. He's not quite Josh Allen or Joe Burrow, but he's proven he can win games in the clutch and carry an offense with a bottom five o-line and rushing attack.

 

[Ozzy]

Oh dear... How is his 2023 year more accurate than 2022? Do explain that logic, as that's a claim that requires evidence, especially considering Geno suffered a significant injury in 2023.

No. I didn't twist anyone's words, Kid. I paraphrased Mike Sando, a point he made about the problem with his tiers. Sharp highlighted that in the twitter post I included. What are your thoughts on that?

Where did you ask this the first time? Are you confusing me with someone else? And no, I don't have any problem with where you, or anyone else, ranks Geno. I was just highlighting that you were confusing EPA with EPA/Play, and that the numbers actually implied the reverse of your argument—Geno is top 10 in EPA.

Similarly, I've made this point a lot. I don't like rankings. I find them meaningless. For me the question is what can't Geno do? And my answer is not much. He's not quite Josh Allen or Joe Burrow, but he's proven he can win games in the clutch and carry an offense with a bottom five o-line and rushing attack.

Who are you calling kid?

He’s not quite Josh Allen?

You’re just as biased as anyone else. You said the stuff that matters like PFF and thier final grade was 14th. You then told me league guys have Geno ranked much higher than I do. I showed you where when polled he came in 20th. Your rebuttal to that was some had him higher lol.

You’re no different than anyone else in this debate.

Geno is 10-20. Hell I’m actually generous by giving him 10 spots more than the people paid to run nfl franchises do.

 

[Ozzy]

Tier 3 and 20th ranked? A tier 3 QB clearly couldn't bring the team to the promised land, could he? Time to play Sam Howell, and not waste him away on the sideline.

View attachment 68182

Now I didn’t say I have him ranked 20th but that league execs do. Obviously that’s not as important as a dude on twitter with 1,400 followers but it’s all I had to go on.

 

[knownone]

Who are you calling kid?

He’s not quite Josh Allen?

You’re just as biased as anyone else. You said the stuff that matters like PFF and thier final grade was 14th. You then told me league guys have Geno ranked much higher than I do. I showed you where when polled he came in 20th. Your rebuttal to that was some had him higher lol.

You’re no different than anyone else in this debate.

Geno is 10-20. Hell I’m actually generous by giving him 10 spots more than the people paid to run nfl franchises do.

That's right. He's not quite Josh Allen.

Again, you are either struggling with reading comprehension or you are intentionally misrepresenting my points. I mean, I suppose you actually think all GM opinions are created equal, so you are willing to gloss over Sando's point about his own tier list. That's fine. Whatever. My takeaway, in a similar vein as Sando and Sharp, is that GMs who think Geno is the 20th ranked QB, probably shouldn't be in the league.

Similarly, you are just misrepresenting and distorting evidence to frame your argument. For example, he was 14th in PFF last season, but 8th in 2022, and 11th this season. His three year average is 11th. What even is your argument with PFF? That he's one spot out of the top 10? Cool.

I never claimed to be different from anyone in this debate.

 

[Ozzy]

He pointed out the obvious. Not every single gm ranked him 20th. But you said I can’t be taken seriously because people around the league obviously value Geno higher than I do at 10-20. I proved that was false and you pointed out the difference between aggregate and how some people are higher than that.

Now I’m going to put a little more stock in multiple gms than I am Sando an espn employee sure.

No issue with comprehension it just gets tiresome how you talk down to anyone who disagrees, call people “kid” and assume only you have the right answer.

You do care because you jump into this debate every single time trying to convince everyone’s he’s just below Allen and Burrow. Most don’t agree.

 

[knownone]

He pointed out the obvious. Not every single gm ranked him 20th. But you said I can’t be taken seriously because people around the league obviously value Geno higher than I do at 10-20. I proved that was false and you pointed out the difference between aggregate and how some people are higher than that.

Now I’m going to put a little more stock in multiple gms than I am Sando an espn employee sure.

No issue with comprehension it just gets tiresome how you talk down to anyone who disagrees, call people “kid” and assume only you have the right answer.

You do care because you jump into this debate every single time trying to convince everyone’s he’s just below Allen and Burrow. Most don’t agree.

Where did I say this?

But you said I can’t be taken seriously because people around the league obviously value Geno higher than I do at 10-20.

Oh, that's right. I said nothing of that sort. I never once made a comment about "people around the league," or "taking you seriously." I talked about the football world, in general, mentioning specifically the analytics community—I even named them explicitly. So what should I believe? Is it comprehension or is it intentional?

 

[Scout]

According to Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic, NFL executives rank Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks in Tier 3, tied with Derek Carr for 20th in the league. This tier is for quarterbacks who are legitimate starters but need a stronger running game or defense to win.

Weird the people who are paid to run NFL franchises have Geno at 20 which is lower than I have him. I put more stock in execs than I do a guy on twitter. Again in a lot of ways we're lucky to have him. I just dont think he's an elite guy and like I said the league agrees.

Knowone you mentioned PFF and guess where they ranked him last year? 14th. Right where I said he ranks.

Geno I feel is in the middle and not the bottom half of the league as well if you look at a longer time horizon. Carr is a very streaky player though so he can be very high or low and Geno has that tendency to be streaky too.

To be honest the difference between a QB ranked #14 versus #20 is not significant enough when it comes to NFL wins/losses which is why people say the NFL is a team game for the most part.

 

[Ozzy]

Where did I say this?

Oh, that's right. I said nothing of that sort. I never once made a comment about "people around the league," or "taking you seriously." I talked about the football world, in general, mentioning specifically the analytics community—I even named them explicitly. So what should I believe? Is it comprehension or is it intentional?

Are you serious? I made the argument that people around the league have him in the 10-20 range and you said that’s false. It’s you who is being intentionally obtuse here not me. You implied exactly what I said you did and when proven wrong you do exactly what you’re doing now. I’m done arguing with you, you do this every single time.

I’ll just concede. Geno is just slightly below Allen and Burrow. I’m sure all the analytics community agrees with that too.

 

[Ozzy]

Geno I feel is in the middle and not the bottom half of the league as well if you look at a longer time horizon. Carr is a very streaky player though so he can be very high or low and Geno has that tendency to be streaky too.

To be honest the difference between a QB ranked #14 versus #20 is not significant enough when it comes to NFL wins/losses which is why people say the NFL is a team game for the most part.

Completely agree. I have Geno quite a bit higher than Carr. I don’t have him just a hair behind Allen like some do but what do I know?

I went through all the starters and I think I have him higher than I thought I did. He’s in the 10-15 range for me and not the 15-20.

 

[jammerhawk]

Forget the metrics and believe your eyes.

Geno has all the needed talent to be a top level QB except when he whigs out from pass rush pressure or whatever other distraction

When he’s hot, he‘s hot; until he flakes out for whatever reason and then he’s a head case. Metrics have him a mid-level QB with elite tendencies.

Will he ever be more? Rather doubt it, as time is his enemy and his history argues against him becoming more.

He’s incredibly frustrating to watch as one minute you say good play and then Gee-No!

I vote head case with huge determination to be more than that.