Five possible destinations for Geno Smith

[Double Tribble]

The common misconception is that a QBOTF has to be a 1st round pick. That is not always the case. Savvy drafting can yield a QBOTF in later rounds. There are mounds of evidence throughout NFL history to prove that is true.

The hit rate for qb's after the first half of the first round drops off a cliff.

 

[chris98251]

The hit rate for qb's after the first half of the first round drops off a cliff.

LOL you speak of that but look at our QB's for the franchise, Zorn, Kreig, Hass, Wilson as longest performers, our failures were not due to their play as much as Officials, or other parts of the teams not supporting them. 2 not drafted, one a 3rd, one a 6th, we had stop gap guys in between them, Kitna could be added as well. Is it nice to have a Josh Allen or Mahomes, Rodgers, yes but you also need a team around them or you have a Pastorini, Archie Manning, Dan Marino career.

 

[hawkfan68]

Russell Wilson

Yes. Others include Dak Prescott, Dave Krieg, Matt Hasselbeck,Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Joe Montana.

 

[JayhawkMike]

Just draft the best QB option available in the 1st or 2nd round THIS year and if it doesn't work repeat the process next year. Use Geno's $40+ million contract to improve everything else.

The draftphobes are very annoying. "It's such a crap shoot." "You can never get a good player at (our draft position)" but other teams that draft at or after us sure the hell seem to find great players we pass on. GENO was drafted in the SECOND ROUND (for all you Geno fans). Sam Howell was drafted in the FIFTH round and even though a big outlier RW was drafted in the THIRD round. Quit being so scared. It's not like our drafting has been any good for 8+ years with very few exceptions so we'd likely waste the pick anyway so try it on a QB.

 

[hawkfan68]

The hit rate for qb's after the first half of the first round drops off a cliff.

On the opposite end, the bust rate also increases - Dan McGwire, Rick Mirer, Jamarcus Russell, Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Ryan Leaf, Andre Ware, Trey Lance, Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, Malik Willis, Jake Locker, Josh Rosen, etc.

Which list is longer the 1st round busts or ones that actually live up to their billing?

 

[Maelstrom787]

Just draft the best QB option available in the 1st or 2nd round THIS year and if it doesn't work repeat the process next year. Use Geno's $40+ million contract to improve everything else.

The draftphobes are very annoying. "It's such a crap shoot." "You can never get a good player at (our draft position)" but other teams that draft at or after us sure the hell seem to find great players we pass on. GENO was drafted in the SECOND ROUND (for all you Geno fans). Sam Howell was drafted in the FIFTH round and even though a big outlier RW was drafted in the THIRD round. Quit being so scared. It's not like our drafting has been any good for 8+ years with very few exceptions so we'd likely waste the pick anyway so try it on a QB.

This is just absolutely terrible process. That's literally just flailing.

You build the roster up, you compete, you build a winning culture, and then you drop a prospect in a position where they'll succeed.

You call your damn shot.

Chiefs did it with Mahomes. That's the blueprint.

 

[Double Tribble]

This is just absolutely terrible process. That's literally just flailing.

You build the roster up, you compete, you build a winning culture, and then you drop a prospect in a position where they'll succeed.

You call your damn shot.

Chiefs did it with Mahomes. That's the blueprint.

The Chiefs picked 10th, not 18th or lower every year.

 

[Double Tribble]

LOL you speak of that but look at our QB's for the franchise, Zorn, Kreig, Hass, Wilson as longest performers, our failures were not due to their play as much as Officials, or other parts of the teams not supporting them. 2 not drafted, one a 3rd, one a 6th, we had stop gap guys in between them, Kitna could be added as well. Is it nice to have a Josh Allen or Mahomes, Rodgers, yes but you also need a team around them or you have a Pastorini, Archie Manning, Dan Marino career.

That applies to every qb, all the time.
That's never a reason not to draft a qb. If you wait until everything is perfect, you'll never draft one, which is what we've been doing. And look at the results. If we keep doing the same thing, we'll keep getting the same results. Simply not good enough. Not by a mile.

 

[Streamhawk]

The Chiefs picked 10th, not 18th or lower every year.

Chiefs traded way up to draft 10th that year.

 

[Double Tribble]

Chiefs traded way up to draft 10th that year.

Then we should do the same when they identify their guy.

 

[Streamhawk]

Then we should do the same when they identify their guy.

Not happening this year. While I'm not a scout, simply not seeing a Mahomes in this draft.

 

[JayhawkMike]

Not happening this year. While I'm not a scout, simply not seeing a Mahomes in this draft.

Mahomes was drafted 10th. Not 1st. So who saw Mahomes that year?

 

[Streamhawk]

Mahomes was drafted 10th. Not 1st. So who saw Mahomes that year?

I’ve heard of him. I think he was considered a little erratic. Clearly several teams messed up not drafting him. But I knew with Andy Reid he’d likely be a superstar.

 

[Maelstrom787]

The Chiefs picked 10th, not 18th or lower every year.

They traded up. Kind of a big distinction.

 

[Titus Pullo]

The 5th year rookie contract option is only for 1st rounders.

That 5th year is important for teams that are rebuilding.

 

[chris98251]

On the opposite end, the bust rate also increases - Dan McGwire, Rick Mirer, Jamarcus Russell, Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Ryan Leaf, Andre Ware, Trey Lance, Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, Malik Willis, Jake Locker, Josh Rosen, etc.

Which list is longer the 1st round busts or ones that actually live up to their billing?

Yes but many of those QB's were drafted by guys that failed all over the board, or the QB was never going to succeed in a system that didn't evolve around their strengths or had a supporting cast, like O line, RB or receivers. So many GM's try to fit square pegs in round holes or are impatient to get them on the field before they are ready. One other factor is I have stated in the past, how fast they process information and execute on what they see. Throw in head case prospects as in Leaf, and Russell from that list and ignoring the flags.

 

[chris98251]

That applies to every qb, all the time.
That's never a reason not to draft a qb. If you wait until everything is perfect, you'll never draft one, which is what we've been doing. And look at the results. If we keep doing the same thing, we'll keep getting the same results. Simply not good enough. Not by a mile.

Yes it does, why you build a team with a serviceable guy and then try later round draft picks till you hit, you can build a team and make it ready for that guy to excel. How many players can you get for a high pick on a team that sucks all around by trading back a bit so when you do get a guy he can hit the ground running so to speak.

Different philosophies so I don't expect any agreement.

 

[chrispy]

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It's not an either/or, black/white issue. There are lots of pieces and variables. If the above was reliable, the passing leaders would easily lead their teams to championships. This year, the passing leaders didn't make the playoffs and only 1 in top 10 made it to Championship weekend. It's just not as easy as saying Geno is good or bad and the oline is good or bad and the OC is good or bad. The pieces fit or they don't fit. Last season they didn't fit. With a different QB or different OC or different OLine, hopefully it fits better.

 

[12forlife]

Here's the realistic top 5 destinations for Geno.

Seattle
Seattle
Seattle
Seattle
and oh yeah, Seattle

Like it or not, he's not going anywhere this offseason, nor should he

Really ok with average? Datta a boy!

 

[Wsumatt1982]

Really ok with average? Datta a boy!

And what’s above Geno that is realistic? I’d much rather take average than below average.