Bears Den -- Bears trade with Seahawks

[Bear-Hawk]

Brugler…

Dane Brugler's NFL mock draft, 3.0: Bears move down twice and Colts land No. 1

With the combine in the books, it's time to take another run at how Round 1 might look. Which teams get in on the early QB run?

theathletic.com

Jeremiah…

Daniel Jeremiah 2023 NFL mock draft 3.0: Bucs, Colts, Panthers, Texans, Vikings pick QBs in Round 1

www.nfl.com

PFF…

Three-Round 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Colts zero in on Anthony Richardson, Jets select Calijah Kancey

Mike Renner's latest three-round mock draft includes multiple trades and a top quarterback prospect sliding down the order.

www.pff.com

These most recent mock drafts have two things in common…

1. They are done by some of the most knowledgable and connected analysts in the business, not fans sitting in their basements with laptops.

2. They all agree on the top-5 picks in the draft…


1-2 Young and Stroud
3. Anderson
4. Richardson
5. Carter

The Bears met with Carter on Monday, and will figure out what to do about him by April 15. This is according to Poles. If Carter was convincing in those interviews, and the Bears decide they want him, what’s the plan? To get him at #9 requires that the Seahawks, Lions, Raiders, and Falcons all don’t take him. That’s possible, but is that what you do, if you decide this is the 3-tech Eberflus is pounding the table to get? I don’t think so.

In that case, the best chance to get him, according to these three mocks from draft experts, is to trade up to the Seahawks at #5. What would it take? According to the chart, the Bears need to offer at least 350 points to make it an even trade (1700-1350=350). That could be the Bears second round pick (61) and 4th round pick (103) at 380 points combined. If the Seahawks are really hot to get Carter, it might take a bit more. Let’s say pick 61+64= 562 points. If Seahawks won’t take that, then there’s possibly no deal to be done. If I proposed this on the Bears forum, I would be banned!

But even if the trade fails to materialize, there is one very positive result for the Bears. Namely, it would help ensure hat the Lions don’t get Carter at #6. The trade offer would reinforce the Seahawks decision to stay at #5 and draft Carter. After all, if Poles/Eberflus/Warren spent all day with Carter and are now so positive about him that they are eager to trade up for him, that’s a very strong endorsement.

Another reason the trade might not materialize would be if the Seahawks are seriously interested in Richardson and think there is a chance the Colts will take Levis at #4. In that case, the trade could still happen on draft night right after the Colts take Richardson off the board.

Now, taking off my Bears fan cap and putting on my Seahawks fan cap, here is why the trade might make sense for the Seahawks. If JS and Pete conclude that there are just too many “red flags” on Carter to take him at #5, then they can get a high quality player at #9 who is likely as good as anybody (besides Carter) that they can get at #5. I agree with the PFF analysts (see their YouTube mock video and long discussion) that once you get beyond Anderson and Carter on your non-QB board, there is a big drop off and there’s a pool of DL and CB guys left for the rest of the top 10 who are not greatly separated in value. Furthermore, the Seahawks would pick up a couple more draft picks in 2023. It essentially comes down to how the Seahawks evaluate Carter vs. alternatives at #5.

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

I dont see pc and is making the move to Carter just because the Bears want him tho…

 

[Hawkinaz]

Brugler…

Dane Brugler's NFL mock draft, 3.0: Bears move down twice and Colts land No. 1

With the combine in the books, it's time to take another run at how Round 1 might look. Which teams get in on the early QB run?

theathletic.com

Jeremiah…

Daniel Jeremiah 2023 NFL mock draft 3.0: Bucs, Colts, Panthers, Texans, Vikings pick QBs in Round 1

www.nfl.com

PFF…

Three-Round 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Colts zero in on Anthony Richardson, Jets select Calijah Kancey

Mike Renner's latest three-round mock draft includes multiple trades and a top quarterback prospect sliding down the order.

www.pff.com

These most recent mock drafts have two things in common…

1. They are done by some of the most knowledgable and connected analysts in the business, not fans sitting in their basements with laptops.

2. They all agree on the top-5 picks in the draft…


1-2 Young and Stroud
3. Anderson
4. Richardson
5. Carter

The Bears met with Carter on Monday, and will figure out what to do about him by April 15. This is according to Poles. If Carter was convincing in those interviews, and the Bears decide they want him, what’s the plan? To get him at #9 requires that the Seahawks, Lions, Raiders, and Falcons all don’t take him. That’s possible, but is that what you do, if you decide this is the 3-tech Eberflus is pounding the table to get? I don’t think so.

In that case, the best chance to get him, according to these three mocks from draft experts, is to trade up to the Seahawks at #5. What would it take? According to the chart, the Bears need to offer at least 350 points to make it an even trade (1700-1350=350). That could be the Bears second round pick (61) and 4th round pick (103) at 380 points combined. If the Seahawks are really hot to get Carter, it might take a bit more. Let’s say pick 61+64= 562 points. If Seahawks won’t take that, then there’s possibly no deal to be done. If I proposed this on the Bears forum, I would be banned!

But even if the trade fails to materialize, there is one very positive result for the Bears. Namely, it would help ensure hat the Lions don’t get Carter at #6. The trade offer would reinforce the Seahawks decision to stay at #5 and draft Carter. After all, if Poles/Eberflus/Warren spent all day with Carter and are now so positive about him that they are eager to trade up for him, that’s a very strong endorsement.

Another reason the trade might not materialize would be if the Seahawks are seriously interested in Richardson and think there is a chance the Colts will take Levis at #4. In that case, the trade could still happen on draft night right after the Colts take Richardson off the board.

Now, taking off my Bears fan cap and putting on my Seahawks fan cap, here is why the trade might make sense for the Seahawks. If JS and Pete conclude that there are just too many “red flags” on Carter to take him at #5, then they can get a high quality player at #9 who is likely as good as anybody (besides Carter) that they can get at #5. I agree with the PFF analysts (see their YouTube mock video and long discussion) that once you get beyond Anderson and Carter on your non-QB board, there is a big drop off and there’s a pool of DL and CB guys left for the rest of the top 10 who are not greatly separated in value. Furthermore, the Seahawks would pick up a couple more draft picks in 2023. It essentially comes down to how the Seahawks evaluate Carter vs. alternatives at #5.

For a team wanting to move up there will be a tax. To exchange #5 & 9 the bidding starts at a 2024 1st rd pick

 

[Hawkinaz]

I don’t value anybody in the sports media coming up with mock drafts it’s always changing I rate them as educated guessers. There is so much misinformation I just take it as entertainment

 

[NoGain]

I highly doubt the Hawks draft a questionable character guy like Carter this high in the draft. They already said they don't want to make that mistake again after the Malik disaster. Most of these mock guys are still just guessing in the end.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

For a team wanting to move up there will be a tax. To exchange #5 & 9 the bidding starts at a 2024 1st rd pick

No deal. That is way overpaying unless Carter ends up in the Hall of Fame.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

I highly doubt the Hawks draft a questionable character guy like Carter this high in the draft. They already said they don't want to make that mistake again after the Malik disaster. Most of these mock guys are still just guessing in the end.

Great. Then let’s do the trade.

 

[Appyhawk]

As a form of encouragement I estimate the chances of a Seahawk trade are far more likely moving down as opposed to up. But I don't think they are excited about losing out on this rare chance at #5.
We are currently holding 10 oicks and struggling to figure out how we can pay for those. Why would we want more picks (?) unless we get a first rounder for '24 in the deal?

 

[hawkfan68]

Unless I read Brugler's mock incorrectly. He is assuming that Bears hold the #1 pick. Don't the Panthers have that now? Not seeing how the Bears can trade a pick they no longer own.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

Unless I read Brugler's mock incorrectly. He is assuming that Bears hold the #1 pick. Don't the Panthers have that now? Not seeing how the Bears can trade a pick they no longer own.

Yeah, but he ends up with the same 5 players and the same order as the others. They all agree on the top-5 ordering.

 

[NoGain]

Great. Then let’s do the trade.

Well all bets off if someone steps up for Arizona's #3 pick. A very possible scenario.

 

[GemCity]

I’d love to just keep our picks….

 

[Bear-Hawk]

Well all bets off if someone steps up for Arizona's #3 pick. A very possible scenario.

In that case, Hawks get Anderson, and Lions get Carter. That would be bittersweet for me.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

I’d love to just keep our picks….

So if the top 4 go as expected in these 3 mocks (and others), who are you drafting? As Brandt said this week, the “safe” pick is not necessarily the “right” pick.

 

[FrodosFinger]

The Bears are posturing. Drew Rosenhaus is posturing. I doubt Carter slides out of the top 8

 

[GemCity]

So if the top 4 go as expected in these 3 mocks (and others), who are you drafting? As Brandt said this week, the “safe” pick is not necessarily the “right” pick.

Thanks for the response B-H. That’s a great question. I’ve flip flopped constantly and my answer today may be different than tomorrow.

If Anderson is gone (and we know Stroud and Young are out of the picture), my preference would be to take Richardson or Carter. From those three, my “wish list” is:

1. Anderson
2. Richardson
3. Carter

Side note…I’m actually hoping we move our 20th pick up. I believe Gonzales and/or Robinson are going to ball out. It sounds ludicrous and I don’t see it happening……

A RB or CB in the first round? Positional value (RB) and JS/PC’s knack for finding late round DBs pretty much tell me that it’s not happening. Not to mention our greatest need by far is DL.

The only trade back of the 5th spot I’d do is where some team coughs up the farm (a La Trey Lance style). Not for “equivalent” value. We may just get one of these teams to make that move.

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

Jalen Carter gets his wish as teams won’t talk to him either.

 

[Hawkinaz]

No deal. That is way overpaying unless Carter ends up in the Hall of Fame.

That’s the gamble similar to when the Panthers traded with the Bears for the #1 pick if whom ever the Panthers select the pick wasn’t worth it if he doesn’t become a franchise QB. If the Bears got a haul no reason the Hawks don’t get fair market value

A 2nd rd pick in the current draft is worth a 1st rd pick in the next draft

 

[Bear-Hawk]

You couldn’t sell that to Poles. He is building slowly toward 2025. He plays long ball. A first round pick next year is worth no more and no less than a first round pick this year. Bears are not in “win now” mode in this rebuild. Too many roster holes.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

Jalen Carter gets his wish as teams won’t talk to him either.

Thanks for the response B-H. That’s a great question. I’ve flip flopped constantly and my answer today may be different than tomorrow.

If Anderson is gone (and we know Stroud and Young are out of the picture), my preference would be to take Richardson or Carter. From those three, my “wish list” is:

1. Anderson
2. Richardson
3. Carter

Side note…I’m actually hoping we move our 20th pick up. I believe Gonzales and/or Robinson are going to ball out. It sounds ludicrous and I don’t see it happening……

A RB or CB in the first round? Positional value (RB) and JS/PC’s knack for finding late round DBs pretty much tell me that it’s not happening. Not to mention our greatest need by far is DL.

The only trade back of the 5th spot I’d do is where some team coughs up the farm (a La Trey Lance style). Not for “equivalent” value. We may just get one of these teams to make that move.

So you are hoping the Colts take Levis so that Seahawks can take Richardson. In my opinion, Richardson is a much bigger “bust” risk than Carter, but I understand that’s not a popular opinion around here.