Bears Den...New USA Today mock draft

Bear-Hawk

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I just posted my speculations about this mock over on the Bears board. I expect to get some flack. Just wondering what you guys think.




4. Indianapolis Colts – QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
After its 2022 crash and burn, time for this organization to reset under center with youth rather than continuing to play musical chairs with fading veterans. New HC Shane Steichen has been coordinating offenses since 2019 and been quite successful with a range of quarterbacks including Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. Of that group, Stroud (6-3, 215 pounds) most closely resembles Herbert as he's accurate (69.3% completion rate in college), productive (85 TD passes, 12 INTs, 182.4 passer rating over last two seasons) and athletic – but, like Herbert, more inclined to extend plays to throw rather than break the pocket. Stroud was on the losing end of both his starts against Michigan and in a 2023 College Football Playoff semifinal against Georgia – but he was spectacular in that final game, passing for 348 yards and four TDs against an awesome Bulldogs defense.
www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/columnist/nate-davis/2023/02/20/nfl-mock-draft-2023-bryce-young-cj-stroud-first-round/11243016002/

This is the latest mock for USA Today. Steichen was one of the most respected OCs in league, and it makes sense why he might prefer Stroud, not only for the size issue with Young but also Stroud’s style of play. Also, I expect Ballard will defer to Steichen to choose their “guy” for the draft.

Most analysts rate Young as the best QB prospect despite the size issue. Besides, he is probably adding some weight as we speak to get closer to 200 pounds at the combine. That is what I would do in his situation. He wants to report Drew Brees size.

So, if all that happens, Ballard will figure that the Texans have Young as their “guy” and so Ballard can sit at #4 and draft Stroud.
If Poles is willing to trade lower than #4 and lose out on Anderson/Carter AND there is a GM like Panthers, etc. willing to meet his price, that would screw up Ballard’s plan. We won’t know that until draft night.

You can bet that Ballard is not only talking to Poles. He will also talk with the Cards. So, if Poles does a Trey Lance kind of deal with somebody, Ballard’s backup plan on draft night is to trade up to #3 with the Cards. That would cost less, according to the sacred chart, than trading up with the Bears, and the Cards would jump on the deal, since it allows them to get the guy they wanted anyway (Anderson/Carter) plus whatever pick(s) Ballard pays.
This seems like a very plausible scenario to me.

I think Poles should get the Colts trade wrapped up before this scenario has a chance to play out. Otherwise, the only thing that would force the Texans trade would be if Eberflus/Warren are pounding the table for Carter and fear the Cards will grab him at #3 to replace JJ Watt. I have seen that in a few mocks, too.
 
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Hawkinaz

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My guess is Stroud is probably the safest pick. Young Will probably on more GMs do not draft list than not. If the Bears do trade down with the Colts there is a decent chance the next 2 picks could be Anderson/Carter by Texans and Arizona. Would the Bears be ok with Wilson/Murphy or something else

The analysts and mock drafters are assuming the Texans will draft QB. Ryans believes in building a defense from the inside out

I joined a Bears FB group called I am Bearsessed they have had a lot of crazy mock drafts using the PFF simulator and they post the results most of them are pretty unrealistic as far as trades go. One guy had Seattle trading up using 3 first rd picks I got a good laugh from that one
 
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Bear-Hawk

Bear-Hawk

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My guess is Stroud is probably the safest pick. Young Will probably on more GMs do not draft list than not. If the Bears do trade down with the Colts there is a decent chance the next 2 picks could be Anderson/Carter by Texans and Arizona. Would the Bears be ok with Wilson/Murphy or something else

The analysts and mock drafters are assuming the Texans will draft QB. Ryans believes in building a defense from the inside out

I joined a Bears FB group called I am Bearsessed they have had a lot of crazy mock drafts using the PFF simulator and they post the results most of them are pretty unrealistic as far as trades go. One guy had Seattle trading up using 3 first rd picks I got a good laugh from that one

That is my worst nightmare, if the Bears do the Colts deal and neither Anderson or Carter is available at #4.

That has about a 0.5% probability, so I have not thought about what to do in that situation until you brought it up.

There is a large crowd of people on the Bears board who say wait til 2024 for the defense and draft offense in 2023 to “support Fields.” We have to give Fields every chance possible to show us what he can do heading into his contract year. They would draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba to team up with Fields. Instant chemistry, and Fields is already publicly campaigning for it. So I guess it would be JSN or offensive right tackle. I would also try to trade down for more picks, since only 1 QB is off the board.

We can always draft a DE in the second round, or even offensive line. Bears have needs everywhere in the trenches.
 
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Bear-Hawk

Bear-Hawk

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People are driving me crazy on the Bears forum. I come here for a reality check. It will cost 7 million to re-sign Montgomery. I said if Josh Jacobs is not tagged and we could get him for 8 million, that’s a better deal. Nope, They say Monty is as good as Jacobs. They want to throw out last season as an oddity.
 

Hawkinaz

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Getting Jacobs’s for $8 million would be a steal. It could be worse Barkley wants $16 million Giants have offered $12 million which he has already turned down.

What are the other Bear fans reasons for keeping Montgomery?
 
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Bear-Hawk

Bear-Hawk

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Getting Jacobs’s for $8 million would be a steal. It could be worse Barkley wants $16 million Giants have offered $12 million which he has already turned down.

What are the other Bear fans reasons for keeping Montgomery?




Let me quote them. It started when I said, “If you prefer Monty at $7M over Jacobs at $8M, that’s crazy.”

FIRST RESPONSE:
“Why is it crazy? Aside from one exceptional year in his walk year they're basically the same dude with Monty actually having a slight edge in the receiving game. “

SECOND RESONSE:

“Dude, Jacobs had a good rookie year and a great season in 2022. Between that he was nothing special and often hurt. You are way over-valuing him for us at least.
Bears don't need a bell-cow RB anyway. That need to Herbert -- one that can do the things Herbert isn't great at such as short-yardage, pass-pro, receiving, etc.
Monty will be cheaper. A 4th-5th round draft pick will be even cheaper.”
======

Remember, we are talking here about whether it would be worth it to the Bears to pay $8 million to Jacobs instead of $7 million to Monty.
 

Hawkinaz

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IMO Jacobs is the better back i would go with him at $8 million. I disagree that Montgomery is a better receiver. If I was Poles I would keep neither and draft a new one but since the Bears are rebuilding you will need one of them
 
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Bear-Hawk

Bear-Hawk

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IMO Jacobs is the better back i would go with him at $8 million. I disagree that Montgomery is a better receiver. If I was Poles I would keep neither and draft a new one but since the Bears are rebuilding you will need one of them
Bears are rebuilding to win a Super Bowl in 2024 and have $100 million to buy Barkley/Jacobs if either of them gets to free agency. I am also trying to trade one of my second round picks in 2024 for K. Allen, D. Hopkins, or M. Evans if any of those teams are launching their own Poles-style moves to clear cap space.
 
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