Bears Den -- Week #18

Bear-Hawk

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Bears Den — Week #18

Holy cow! The Texans won a miracle game and gave the Bears the #1 pick.

And then the Lions beat the Packers to get the Seahawks into the playoffs. Rodgers appears done.

This was all my dream scenario for yesterday.

Now, as predicted, the “trade down at all costs” enthusiasts have taken over the discussion on the Bears forum. As an example, here is what I posted after the game, along with the first response I got and my reply to his response…

Here is what the last 25 years of NFL history tells us what to expect when trading the #1 pick…

www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/what-bears-can-expect-potential-nfl-draft-trade-no-1-pick

Key take-aways:

1. It does not happen very often: 4 times in 25 years. Throw in the RG3 and Trey Lance deals, and that makes 6 times. That says there is a 75% probability that no trade down happens.

2. Only the RG3 and Lance trades netted 3 first round picks. That is a stupid trade, which is why 92% of the time it does not happen.

3. Bears might be able to get two firsts plus one or two lower round picks like in the Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers trade. But then you have to ask yourself, “How many GMs rate Bryce Young or Stroud as highly as they rated Rivers and Manning?”

4. One of these trades was not for a QB. It was Orlando Pace. Theoretically, a team like the Seahawks could move up and snatch Anderson or Carter.

5. Bears are not the only show in town. If Poles sets his price too high, a team could trade up with the Seahawks to get their target QB at a lower price.

6. If Poles trades down much lower than 4th, he can’t realistically expect to get Anderson or Carter. QBs go 1,2 and then Seahawks will probably take either Anderson or Carter. They can try for a QB with their other first round pick, if they roll with Geno for another year. I am betting that will happen. I know most of you guys don’t care much whether or not we get Anderson, but you should. I want THREE first round picks (i.e. a Trey Lance/RG3 deal) to drop out of range to get Anderson or Carter.

7. I am not trading with the Lions. They looked dangerous enough tonight beating the Packers without us helping them get a franchise QB. That could plague the Bears for the next 10 years. Not worth it. Besides, why on earth would they be stupid enough to offer a Trey Lance deal?

First trade down enthusiast reply and my responses (in bold)...

A few points:

1) Such trades are uncommon because the current situation is uncommon. Not very often does the #1 pick team have a young talented QB already in the fold. And some years there just aren't any good QBs worth drafting high (last year, for instance). In 2023, there will be at least 2 QBs taken in the top-5 and probably 3 in the top-10 or so.

Here is another way to look at it. Over the last 25 years, teams in the Bear’s position traded down 3 times. They did not trade down and drafted a non-QB 8 times (either because they did not want to trade down or could not get anybody to pay their price). That yields a 27% probability (3/11) that Poles trades down, and a 73% probability (8/11) that he does not.

2) I'm more interested in getting a PLAYER plus some picks then I am in getting "3 1sts". I'll take less to get a proven WR1 or Edge rusher, both of which we desperately need.

I agree. There are a couple guys on the Colts I would target, and Poles/Eberflus already have friendly relations with them.

3) I'm not gonna restrict myself to worrying about Anderson or Carter. They may be the top defensive prospects but they won't be the only good ones who can help us. I'm trading that pick and if that means moving down to #7 or #8 (Vegas & Atlanta), then so be it. We will still get a top-10 non-QB player in addition.

Depends on your evaluation. I believe there is a huge drop off in talent when you miss on Anderson, if he is the next Von Miller. We don't know for sure, but that would be my assumption going into the draft. Career 100+ sacks and excellent run defense.

4) Lions, Texans, Seahawks, and Eagles all have 2 FRPs. Only Eagles are truly set at QB. Goff and Geno are placeholders only.

Lions might be ready to move on from Goff, but I would not count on them giving us anything close to a Trey Lance deal. Find something else. Texans are already #2. They can get a QB without trading. Seahawks, like the Bears, have HUGE problems with the DL, and knowing their management, I think that is where they are going. They will roll with Geno for another year and/or try to draft their future franchise QB with their second pick in the first round. I spend a fair amount of time on the Seahawks forum.
 

Fade

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Wrong year to have the number 1 pick.

Since the Bears already have Fields, teams know they are not drafting a QB.

And there is no Elway, Manning, prospect to justify trading up to the number 1 spot.
 
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Bear-Hawk

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Wrong year to have the number 1 pick.

Since the Bears already have Fields, teams know they are not drafting a QB.

And there is no Elway, Manning, prospect to justify trading up to the number 1 spot.
I have been telling people that on the Bears forum. They don’t want to hear it!

Of course, it’s always possible that you and I are wrong. It only takes ONE team that believes Bryce Young is the next superstar QB and will offer 4 picks for him. We won’t know for sure until draft night.
 

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Wrong year??? What???? The Bears are in an amazing spot. They already have their QB. Let the bidding begin. They can get a kings ransom for that pick.
Another amazing "Fade take"

Funny how he vanished after the Hawks made the playoffs.
 
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Bear-Hawk

Bear-Hawk

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Wrong year??? What???? The Bears are in an amazing spot. They already have their QB. Let the bidding begin. They can get a kings ransom for that pick.
Another amazing "Fade take"

Funny how he vanished after the Hawks made the playoffs.
It all depends on how highly the QBs in this draft class are valued by these GMs. Do they see Bryce Young as the next Mahomes? They aren’t paying a king’s ransom unless they have high confidence in him.
 
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Bear-Hawk

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All it takes is ONE TEAM. Look what Santa Clara gave up for an unproven QB. It wouldn't be out of the question to see someone trade up, with a lot.
Yes, I mentioned that possibility to Fade. If the Bears drop down outside the top-10, the price will be VERY high (a Trey Lance/RG3 kind of deal). I think it’s a stupid trade for the team moving up, but obviously it’s possible.

The trade with the Colts to get Carter + picks is much more likely.
 

Hawkinaz

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Yes, I mentioned that possibility to Fade. If the Bears drop down outside the top-10, the price will be VERY high (a Trey Lance/RG3 kind of deal). I think it’s a stupid trade for the team moving up, but obviously it’s possible.

The trade with the Colts to get Carter + picks is much more likely.
About 3 weeks ago
I had brought up the scenario of the Bears going QB with the 1st pick and trading Fields for a 1st rd pick but only if Stroud is the guy. Fields was not drafted by the current HC/GM and doesn’t really fit the downfield throwing scheme Eberflus wants. At the time the Bears needed a QB and Fields was a good college QB that a receiver had to be open for Fields to throw, the NFL is much different QB needs to be able to throw with anticipation. Put Fields in a similar offense that Russell Wilson had he could see some success. You don’t have to be a pass happy team to be successful
 

Hawkinaz

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Wrong year to have the number 1 pick.

Since the Bears already have Fields, teams know they are not drafting a QB.

And there is no Elway, Manning, prospect to justify trading up to the number 1 spot.
Agree I am not sold on the QBs this year that the internet mock drafters and sports media say it is and everybody just follows like sheep. Will a team do something stupid like the 9ers did when they traded up for Lance?

50/50 chance
 
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Bear-Hawk

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Agree I am not sold on the QBs this year that the internet mock drafters and sports media say it is and everybody just follows like sheep. Will a team do something stupid like the 9ers did when they traded up for Lance?

50/50 chance
The chance of a Trey Lance/RG3 type of deal is (unfortunately) way less than 50/50. It is a stupid trade for the team moving up. Here is a note I just posted on the Bears forum. Your comments are welcome...

=======
I saw that, too. I think it is about 100% that Colts will draft a QB. The owner always gets what the owner wants, and this owner is rightfully sick of the veteran QBs who cost him a ton of money and don’t produce.

I can realistically see only three things that could stop this trade:

1. The Colts would be comfortable with either Stroud, Young, or Levis. In that case, they can stay at #4 and be assured of getting one of these three, because it is safe to assume the Cards are not drafting a QB (by then we will know more about Murray’s health). But my guess is that they probably do have a clear #1.

2. The price. According to the sacred chart, the Colts would owe us the #4 pick plus 1200 points. That could be their second round pick in 2023 at #35 and their first round pick in 2024 at #Huh. I figure they will be drafting somewhere in the 20’s if they are successful with their new QB, and that is worth about 800 points. That yields around 1400 points. If they have another bad year in 2023, their first round pick in 2024 could be golden —consider the Rams and Broncos in 2022. Who would have predicted that? You may also be able to get them to throw in a round 3-5 pick, but that shouldn’t be a deal breaker for Poles. If the Colts have a real strong preference among the top-4 QBs in this draft class, they should do this deal.

3. Some other offer is better for the Bears. It won’t be the Texans. According to the sacred chart, they should not offer more than a second round pick to move up. Besides, they may be happy to take either of their top-2 picks. If that happens, the Colts will sit tight figuring that the Bears and Cards will draft Anderson and Carter in some order. It is theoretically possible that the Bears could do a double trade down of the #2 pick to the Raiders or Panthers, but the Texans have already taken one of the top QBs off the board, so their #1 prospect would have to be one of the remaining QBs AND be willing to pay a higher price than the Colts. Raiders=1500 points. Panthers=1650 points. The problem with this trade is that it takes us out of range to get either Anderson or Carter. What we get is some additional picks in 2024 of unknown value. If Poles is a gambler and truly believes that he is a draft genius, he may go for this trade, but I doubt it. As I said before, I am not trading outside the top-5, unless I get THREE first round picks. The first round pick in 2025 would still be a good player, even if it is in the lower half of the round.

4. Poles trades outside the top-10. This requires a Trey Lance/RG3 kind of deal. It is a stupid trade for the team moving up, which is why it has only happened 2 times in 25 years. To do this requires 3 first round picks plus some lower round picks, according to the sacred chart. That is a VERY high price, and the team would have to have supreme confidence that the guy they are drafting is a future franchise QB. The other reason this trade is improbable is that the teams in 10-20 draft position already have a QB. The exception might be Tampa if Brady moves on. In that case, I want Mike Evans as part of the deal along with their first two picks in 2023 and 2024.

That’s the picture I see at this point, but it will change once we know what happens with the veteran QBs in free agency with Carr, Brady, Jimmy G., etc.
 
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Fade

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Wrong year??? What???? The Bears are in an amazing spot. They already have their QB. Let the bidding begin. They can get a kings ransom for that pick.
Another amazing "Fade take"

Funny how he vanished after the Hawks made the playoffs.
A king's ransom for who exactly? I need a name. Joe Burrow isn't in this draft.

NFL teams showed surprising restraint last year for the first time maybe ever by not drafting a bunch of 3rd rd QBs in the 1st rd.

There is no one in this draft worth the #1 pick. There is a reason when the Bears secured the pick, immediately the talk was to trade down.

It only takes one, however, teams are wising up a bit as their is a recent track record of trading up for the franchise QB and it not working out.

RGIII
Goff
Wentz
Lance

Then you have to look at the teams and where they are positioned.

CHI - DL/ED
HOU - Bryce Young
AZ - CJ Stroud (Prime position to move down imo)
IND - Will Levis
SEA - DL/ED

I could see a ATL, CAR, or TB moving up to 3 to take Stroud. Which will not cost as much as moving all the way up to #1. Especially in a draft that doesn't have that Manning, Elway, esque prospect.

Seattle has the draft ammo. Do you want to see them move up for these QBs?
 
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Bear-Hawk

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A king's ransom for who exactly? I need a name. Joe Burrow isn't in this draft.

NFL teams showed surprising restraint last year for the first time maybe ever by not drafting a bunch of 3rd rd QBs in the 1st rd.

There is no one in this draft worth the #1 pick. There is a reason when the Bears secured the pick, immediately the talk was to trade down.

It only takes one, however, teams are wising up a bit as their is a recent track record of trading up for the franchise QB and it not working out.

RGIII
Goff
Wentz
Lance

Then you have to look at the teams and where they are positioned.

CHI - DL/ED
HOU - Bryce Young
AZ - CJ Stroud (Prime position to move down imo)
IND - Will Levis
SEA - DL/ED

I could see a ATL, CAR, or TB moving up to 3 to take Stroud. Which will not cost as much as moving all the way up to #1. Especially in a draft that doesn't have that Manning, Elway, esque prospect.

Seattle has the draft ammo. Do you want to see them move up for these QBs?
There are about 9 teams that may need a QB, and the odds are good that the Bears will trade down with one of them.

The Colts are the favorites, because their owner wants to draft a QB. He is tired of playing and losing with retread veteran QBs. Ballard said that in an interview, so he will be under heavy pressure from Jim Irsay to draft a QB. If he just sits at #4, the top 2 will be off the board, and he is stuck with Levis or somebody else who has no business getting drafted that high. (Levis looks like the next Trubisky to me.)

Stroud played really well against Georgia. It’s a close call IMO between him and Young. If the Texans see it that way, they will just sit at #2 and take what comes to them.

Cards might move down with Vegas or Panthers. It depends on how badly they want Will Anderson. and how the trade partner evaluates what's left on their QB board after the Texans and Colts go 1,2.

Seahawks will take a DE, probably either Murray or Wilson.
 

Fade

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There are about 9 teams that may need a QB, and the odds are good that the Bears will trade down with one of them.

The Colts are the favorites, because their owner wants to draft a QB. He is tired of playing and losing with retread veteran QBs. Ballard said that in an interview, so he will be under heavy pressure from Jim Irsay to draft a QB. If he just sits at #4, the top 2 will be off the board, and he is stuck with Levis or somebody else who has no business getting drafted that high. (Levis looks like the next Trubisky to me.)

Stroud played really well against Georgia. It’s a close call IMO between him and Young. If the Texans see it that way, they will just sit at #2 and take what comes to them.

Cards might move down with Vegas or Panthers. It depends on how badly they want Will Anderson. and how the trade partner evaluates what's left on their QB board after the Texans and Colts go 1,2.

Seahawks will take a DE, probably either Murray or Wilson.
Indy is a pretty good call.👍

They have an owner dumb enough to mortgage the farm for a non concensus #1 QB.

Outside of Indy, I think the QB needy teams are eyeing the #3 and #5 picks as it won't cost quite as much capital to move up.
 

Hawkinaz

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There’s a possible wrench in the chain with Stroud possibly not going into the draft he has until 1/16 to declare and he hasn’t yet

Teams that were thinking about trading up may decide it’s not worth it for Levis or fighting for Young. Just because one of a teams needs is QB doesn’t mean they have one of the top QBs high enough to be drafted in the top 5
 
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Bear-Hawk

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Indy is a pretty good call.👍

They have an owner dumb enough to mortgage the farm for a non concensus #1 QB.

Outside of Indy, I think the QB needy teams are eyeing the #3 and #5 picks as it won't cost quite as much capital to move up.
Colts really need a QB, and Irsay is tired of playing veteran retreads. For better or worse, they’re going to take their shot.

The Cards will get calls from teams looking for a QB, but they will want a lot to pass on Will Anderson. If the Bears want Anderson, poles will try to trade with Texans. If he wants Carter, he will probably trade with Colts. The other trade downs are less likely.
 

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There’s a possible wrench in the chain with Stroud possibly not going into the draft he has until 1/16 to declare and he hasn’t yet

Teams that were thinking about trading up may decide it’s not worth it for Levis or fighting for Young. Just because one of a teams needs is QB doesn’t mean they have one of the top QBs high enough to be drafted in the top 5
Very true.

People acting like a team needs a QB, so that means they are just going to blindly trade up to the #1 pick just because is laughable.

I could see Indy doing it, but not for sound reasons. They could be duped into moving up just to make sure they get their guy, though.
 
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Bear-Hawk

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Very true.

People acting like a team needs a QB, so that means they are just going to blindly trade up to the #1 pick just because is laughable.

I could see Indy doing it, but not for sound reasons. They could be duped into moving up just to make sure they get their guy, though.
Most fans on the Bears forum think it’s almost automatic that Poles will trade down. It’s not. The Colts trade depends on how badly they want to stop the Texans from getting Bryce Young.

I have a question for you. There is a rumor that Michael Pitmann will be part of the trade. Some Bears fans are not excited by that, doubting he’d be much better than Mooney or Claypool — just another WR2 level receiver. I noted that he had 99 receptions for 925 yards on a team that needs a QB. What do you think?
 

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I would consider Pittman to be a possession type of receiver who did run a 4.5 40 coming out of USC which I consider good enough. Definitely better than Claypool who I have no confidence with. You are right considering the lack of QB and instability of the Colts pretty good production

I wouldn’t hate the move, when you think about it is there a receiver that the Bears could draft who could be better?
 

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Most fans on the Bears forum think it’s almost automatic that Poles will trade down. It’s not. The Colts trade depends on how badly they want to stop the Texans from getting Bryce Young.

I have a question for you. There is a rumor that Michael Pitmann will be part of the trade. Some Bears fans are not excited by that, doubting he’d be much better than Mooney or Claypool — just another WR2 level receiver. I noted that he had 99 receptions for 925 yards on a team that needs a QB. What do you think?
Meh. WR 2's grow on trees.

The Bears have to get Indy to move up with oodles of future picks, otherwise they'll have to take a lesser deal that will feel very underwhelming when compared to recent deals from teams moving up to take QBs.

The Bear's GM is in a tough spot. He'll get lambasted if he doesn't trade down, and he'll get lambasted if he does trade down and doesn't get much in return.

In that position, he would stand pat and draft at #1. Getting fleeced in a trade would wreck his reputation. While, he can sell to the fanbase that Will Anderson was just too good to pass up, and save face as an example.

Everyone in the world knows the Bears want to trade down, they have no leverage. They just have to hope a desperate Indy gives them the farm. I think the chances are good that happens, btw.
 
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