An article about our 3rd down struggles

[toffee]

A good read, here're a few quotes:

There's not a quarterback controversy in Seattle, but it is worth noting that backup Geno Smith performed much more efficiently on third down in four games played, including three starts replacing Wilson. Along with posting a completion rate nearly 30 points higher, he completed eight passes for first downs, only two less than his counterpart on 15 less attempts. He also threw for a slightly higher 6.3 yards per attempt and a passer rating close to 23 points better.

While some may point to Wilson's injured right middle finger that cost him three games as the culprit for these struggles, the eight-time Pro Bowl signal caller was arguably worse before undergoing surgery. He still ranked dead-last among quarterbacks with at least 20 third down attempts with a 34.8 completion rate, and if not for a 68-yard touchdown to Freddie Swain against severely busted coverage in Week 2 versus the Titans, his yardage totals would be have been dramatically worse.

There's a number of factors at play when it comes to this unideal distribution and lack of overall touches for Metcalf, Lockett, and Everett. Wilson's poor accuracy has played a part, particularly given his low 25 percent hit rate to Metcalf, and long-developing route concepts dialed up by offensive coordinator Shane Waldron - or audibled to by Wilson himself - have hindered his ability to get the football to them.

This year, even with three games missed due to injury, Wilson has been sacked 20 times, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. More than half of those sacks have come on third down on just 53 combined drop backs, meaning he hit the turf on nearly 21 percent of those plays. The majority of those sacks (8) came in third and long scenarios where Seattle needed seven or more yards to get a first down.

But while Carroll wants to see more favorable third downs more frequently by avoiding negative plays on early downs, what has frustrated him the most has been been the team's dreadful performance third and medium situations where they need to pick up four to six yards to convert. These are far more manageable third downs and yet, the Seahawks have posted an ugly 21.4 percent conversion rate when Wilson is on field and a 28.6 percent overall conversion rate in such scenarios this season. That's just not going to cut it.

Analysis: What's Behind Seahawks' Chronic Third Down Troubles?

At the center of their fall to the bottom of the NFC, the Seahawks rank 25th in scoring offense in large part due to their inability to sustain drives thanks to poor performance on third down. What has been behind these season-long struggles?

www.si.com

 

[hawkfan68]

And this sheds a different light regarding Smith and Lock on 3rd down conversion rate -

"In four games spelling Wilson, Smith threw with great accuracy on third down, completing 15 out of 22 passes for 139 yards. But while he connected on nearly 70 percent of those throws, only eight of them moved the chains for a new set of downs and taking six sacks on third down situations limited him to a 31 percent conversion rate on 29 conversion attempts. For perspective, the Bears had the lowest third down conversion rate in the NFL at 34.7 percent.

Playing in six games total for the Broncos, Lock actually performed worse in the passing department, completing only 15 out of 31 third down attempts for 168 yards and an interception. But showing off his underrated athleticism, he ran for 45 yards and a touchdown on six rushing attempts, moving the chains four times with his legs, pushing the Broncos third down conversion rate to 28 percent."

The full article can be found at - https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/gm-...52500002619&pid=quick-passing-game-geno-smith

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

How well did Lock perform on 3rd down when he was running a Shanahan type WCO in 2019?

 

[hawkfan68]

How well did Lock perform on 3rd down when he was running a Shanahan type WCO in 2019?

According to footballdb.com, Lock was pretty good in 2019. He had a 3rd comp pct of 70.2, only got sacked 3 times, and had a rating of 117. https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2019?sort=passpct

 

[Rainger]

Man, dont let the Russ lovers read this article a lot of damning info in it about what we all watched last year and a couple of the years before.
My wife can attest to me yelling at the TV asking why Russ never threw it to open receivers over the middle on third down.

 

[toffee]

According to footballdb.com, Lock was pretty good in 2019. He had a 3rd comp pct of 70.2, only got sacked 3 times, and had a rating of 117. https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2019?sort=passpct

Lock actually led the pack, our own franchise QB wasn't bad at 60%, but was sack 19 times trying to convert 3rd downs, not doubt the WRs didn't run fast enough or get open quick enough.

 

[BleuEyedHawk]

I wanted to laugh when reading "propensity for holding the football too long" except that the frustration is still too fresh. Someone else's turn to say "Just throw the ball already!"

 

[keasley45]

And this sheds a different light regarding Smith and Lock on 3rd down conversion rate -

"In four games spelling Wilson, Smith threw with great accuracy on third down, completing 15 out of 22 passes for 139 yards. But while he connected on nearly 70 percent of those throws, only eight of them moved the chains for a new set of downs and taking six sacks on third down situations limited him to a 31 percent conversion rate on 29 conversion attempts. For perspective, the Bears had the lowest third down conversion rate in the NFL at 34.7 percent.

Playing in six games total for the Broncos, Lock actually performed worse in the passing department, completing only 15 out of 31 third down attempts for 168 yards and an interception. But showing off his underrated athleticism, he ran for 45 yards and a touchdown on six rushing attempts, moving the chains four times with his legs, pushing the Broncos third down conversion rate to 28 percent."

The full article can be found at - https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/gm-...52500002619&pid=quick-passing-game-geno-smith

That's all well and good. But the constant drumbeat beat of how hamstrung our offense will be without Wilson is tiresome. He was and has been bad on 3rd down. I'll take struggling to grow 4 years in vs a track record of failure on 3rd down over 10 years any day.
Likewise, I'll take the chance that a 68% completion rate on 3rd down shows at least the potential for improvement over 10 years of sub 60% completion on 3rd.

 

[keasley45]

Are we really that good through the air?

There's been a lot of talk about how Pete and the offense would be lost without RW. There's no doubt that Russ is a supremely talented guy at what 'HE' does. He's a unique player and a gifted athlete and playmaker. But the fact remains that there have been holes in his game that, fortunately for...

www.seahawks.net

Just saying...

 

[keasley45]

That's all well and good. But the constant drumbeat beat of how hamstrung our offense will be without Wilson is tiresome. He was and has been bad on 3rd down. I'll take struggling to grow 4 years in vs a track record of failure on 3rd down over 10 years any day.
Likewise, I'll take the chance that a 68% completion rate on 3rd down shows at least the potential for improvement over 10 years of sub 60% completion on 3rd.

Would also say the chances of getting better with Wilson were slim given the simple fact that his stature AND (IN)ABILITY TO DIAGNOSE DEFENSES REQUIRED the long drops and excessive tendency to bail the pocket even when the protection was adequate.

It was what it was. He overcame it in many ways. But against stiffer defenses... see 2017 to 2021.

 

[keasley45]

QBs in Focus: Drop-back Depth | PFF News & Analysis | PFF

Steve Palazzolo once again slices the league's QB data, this time revealing the leaders at various drop-back depths.

www.pff.com

As early as 2014, Russ was showing a tendency to drop deep and led the league in average depth of target. Deep drop work great for long developing plays. But if you don't have a short drop game, it simplifies the pass rush for opposing defenses.

And guess where defenses are going on 3rd down and 5 to 10?... the same place Russ is.

Good luck Denver.

 

[keasley45]

Kings of third down: Quarterbacks

The best quarterbacks on third down.

thehuddle.com

More. The only thing that lifted Russ to 14th was his scrambling to pick up 3rd downs.

It's not an aberration. It's who he's been.

 

[IndyHawk]

Might as well post this as it's by a Bronco writer it concerns
Russ and his 3rd down troubles and other bits as well.
It may have been posted before not sure.

How will a Russell Wilson passing offense look?

Combing through the last 5 years of Russell Wilson’s film revealed some startling frustrations as well as plenty of reasons to be excited

www.milehighreport.com

 

[toffee]

Might as well post this as it's by a Bronco writer it concerns
Russ and his 3rd down troubles and other bits as well.
It may have been posted before not sure.

How will a Russell Wilson passing offense look?

Combing through the last 5 years of Russell Wilson’s film revealed some startling frustrations as well as plenty of reasons to be excited

www.milehighreport.com

this writer was hating on Russ, calling him a top 10 QB. Quite sure Russ does not consider himself less than top 5, and wth is this:

Pocket presence​

One area of difference from 2021 will be how different Wilson plays in the pocket versus Teddy Bridgewater. Wilson plays more akin to Drew Lock, with some startlingly bad habits of taking too many sacks and feeling “ghost” pressure that speeds up his clock unnecessarily. Wilson’s scrambles dipped immensely as well, going from 58 in 17 games in 2020 to just 24 in 14 games in 2021. His pressure-to-sack percentage increased as well, from 18.8% to 20%.

He just takes bad sacks. Period. When Wilson is feeling it and in rhythm, his confidence comes in and the offense looks viable. If he isn’t and the defense is giving his reads fits, Wilson almost looked gun-shy and hesitant. He went big-game hunting too often, passing up open targets underneath trying to fit into a deep shot. Of course, when that happened, he opened himself up to more pressures and hits, which add up as the game goes on. This was a big reason why I was so adamant the team find an answer at right tackle this offseason that wasn’t an average band-aid.

 

[Smellyman]

I bet RW's 3rd down conversions were pretty good with Lynch and when Wilson could still really threaten a D with his scrambling ability. He was magical when the stakes were high.

But lately it was abysmal. Drops back sack, drop back scramble sack, drop back hero ball. This last year I will always remember how often Duane Brown got furious with Wilson not going with the play called and peeling out into sacks.

 

[keasley45]

Might as well post this as it's by a Bronco writer it concerns
Russ and his 3rd down troubles and other bits as well.
It may have been posted before not sure.

How will a Russell Wilson passing offense look?

Combing through the last 5 years of Russell Wilson’s film revealed some startling frustrations as well as plenty of reasons to be excited

www.milehighreport.com

Wow...

That one deserves its own thread. Someone actually watched tape on Russ and speaks truth...

 

[Smellyman]

Wow...

That one deserves its own thread. Someone actually watched tape on Russ and speaks truth...

and said everything most of us have been saying sans a few posters.

 

[HawkRiderFan]

That article was like reliving the wild card game vs the Rams

 

[Lagartixa]

Wow...

That one deserves its own thread. Someone actually watched tape on Russ and speaks truth...

The author puts the burden of overcoming Wilson's (funny-in-context word coming here, and there's a good joke to be made, but I haven't got it right now) limitations on Hackett and the Broncos coaching staff, so if Wilson doesn't completely light up the league and win titles, I fully expect the Wilson-fan contingent around here to put the blame on them.

 

[toffee]

Man, dont let the Russ lovers read this article a lot of damning info in it about what we all watched last year and a couple of the years before.
My wife can attest to me yelling at the TV asking why Russ never threw it to open receivers over the middle on third down.

One of the reasons why I advocated trading Wilson after 2020 season:. I was not being entertained watching the game, it was pure frustration, that and I was convinced his trade value was at its peak,
I like to speculate that John was ready to trade Russ but not Pete.