Geno Trade Value?

Parallax · Feb 4, 2024

DarkVictory23 said:
I'm equally dumbfounded by people who are stuck on the idea that 'Geno isn't the guy' (well, age notwithstanding) and then spout stuff about Lock having way more natural talent.

What is that based on? He didn't have a better college career, he was below Geno in most measurables in their respective combines, and while we all know that Geno had a terrible start to his career, his career numbers are still better than Lock's (as are their respective Seattle-only numbers).

I am not stuck on thinking 'Lock isn't the guy', just that the 'upside' and 'potential' is just another way of saying Lock is younger. But even that doesn't seem to manifest itself in any sort of apparent benefit. The younger, supposedly more athletic Lock gained less yards when he ran or scrambled and was much worse at avoiding sacks.

Put it this way: Easton Stick, who until this year had thrown all of 1 NFL regular season pass since joining the Chargers in 2019, was closer to Justin Herbert's performance level than Drew was to matching Geno's.

My eyes tell me Lock has a way stronger arm and can throw downfield with more authority. My eyes also tell me he's much more mobile. To me, it seems obvious he has way more upside.

If we let him go and he excels elsewhere, we'll regret it. I think he could be signed for a reasonable sum and this would be a great year to go for it with him. If I were GM, I'd cut Geno for sure unless another team was willing to trade for him. I'd be sure to have at least one rookie QB on the roster. During the draft, I'd seek value based on evaluations. Worst case, we'd have Drew and a couple of UDFAs. Instead of carrying two QBs, as we have for years under Carroll, I'd have three. I'd also want the coach to be more creative, giving the QBs opportunities to excel. Use different ones in different packages if they have different skill sets. Try a two-QB set. Why not? If we wind up with Grubb, he'd have these things thoroughly thought out and practiced in advance, so it wouldn't look like a clown show.

Ozzy · Feb 4, 2024

Parallax said:
What if our OC looks at that game winning drive and thinks he could get something out of Lock?

People forget Geno showed almost nothing before taking off. Maybe Lock has that in him too. Both are similar in draft pedigree and talent I think.

Parallax · Feb 4, 2024

PNW25 said:
People forget Geno showed almost nothing before taking off. Maybe Lock has that in him too. Both are similar in draft pedigree and talent I think.

To my eyes, Lock appears to have significantly more talent.

chris98251 · Feb 4, 2024

Well it really comes down to what they want in a QB when we find an OC, measurables are great if you can package them with a over clocked processor mentally and a quick release, give me the processor and build your offense around that. If he can't throw 70 yards and a pretty spiral so be it, give me 50 yards and hitting the guy in stride and throw guys open in the 10 to 15 yard range 70 percent of the time letting them get YAC.

Ozzy · Feb 4, 2024

Parallax said:
To my eyes, Lock appears to have significantly more talent.

That’s how I see it too. He’s gotta prove it like Geno has but the tools are there

Maelstrom787 · Feb 4, 2024

PNW25 said:
He’s 33, regressed from the year before, finished 14-17 by most metrics with multiple dudes hurt. No one is going to pay him 35 million and give up a second round pick. You can be snarky all you want but it’s just not happening. And if a team is ran terribly and they do make that move then props to Geno for getting his.

He’s a good QB but that’s a lot to mortgage a ton of resources away. Ryan had a decade of really, really good play and it was still a dumb decision by them to pay what they did.

Maybe the league knows more than I do and they think Waldron/Pete really held him back and he’s better than I think….its entirely possible. We shall see.

Snarky? I responded in kind when met with dismissal rather than a reciprocal conversation. That's all, my guy. Snark to go around here.

Again, I didn't say I'd make the move as a rival GM. Just that there's some historical precedent to that general valuation. Quarterbacks are overpriced.

Grahamhawker · Feb 4, 2024

Why does all this Geno talk feel so deja vuish? I think we could review the discussion prior to his last resigning and copy/paste about 90% of it.

DarkVictory23 · Feb 4, 2024

Parallax said:
My eyes tell me Lock has a way stronger arm and can throw downfield with more authority. My eyes also tell me he's much more mobile. To me, it seems obvious he has way more upside.

If we let him go and he excels elsewhere, we'll regret it. I think he could be signed for a reasonable sum and this would be a great year to go for it with him. If I were GM, I'd cut Geno for sure unless another team was willing to trade for him. I'd be sure to have at least one rookie QB on the roster. During the draft, I'd seek value based on evaluations. Worst case, we'd have Drew and a couple of UDFAs. Instead of carrying two QBs, as we have for years under Carroll, I'd have three. I'd also want the coach to be more creative, giving the QBs opportunities to excel. Use different ones in different packages if they have different skill sets. Try a two-QB set. Why not? If we wind up with Grubb, he'd have these things thoroughly thought out and practiced in advance, so it wouldn't look like a clown show.

Yeah, but your 'eyes' are... wrong? Just comparing their numbers since Drew came into the league, Geno's intended air yards per PA and air yards per completion are superior to Drew's. Geno averages about a yard more per rushes overall and 2 extra yards on scramble plays.

PNW25 said:
People forget Geno showed almost nothing before taking off. Maybe Lock has that in him too. Both are similar in draft pedigree and talent I think.

Except Geno did show something.

Let's flash back to 2021. Both Geno and Drew get reps due to injury to their teams' respective starter (Teddy Bridgewater, in Drew's case), both actually start 3 games.

Let's take a look at how Geno and Drew respectively compared to their starters in some QB metrics:

	Success Rate	Passer Rating	QBR	ANY/A
Russell Wilson	44.6%	103.1	54.7	6.58
Geno Smith	44.4%	103.0	45.8	5.42
Teddy Bridgewater	46.0%	94.9	47.4	6.32
Drew Lock	36.7%	80.4	23.4	5.71

As you can see here, Geno showed something in his 2021 backup duties that would lead you to think: Ok, maybe we might not be in too much trouble if we let Russ walk. Geno's sack rate that year was terrible (primary reason why his QBR and ANY/A take such a hit while his success rate and passer rating are nearly identical to Russ's) but otherwise he performed at basically starter level.

Drew, on the other hand... did not. Not even close. In fact, his success rate and QBR were so bad that he actually wouldn't have charted amongst starting QBs that year if he had enough attempts to chart.

So now, we go to this year where Drew again gets multiple games under his belt...

	Success Rate	Passer Rating	QBR	ANY/A
Geno Smith	47.2%	92.1	59.5	6.39
Drew Lock	40.2%	81.2	44.9	5.39

Is a pattern starting to emerge here?

The Geno numbers that so many were convinced meant Seattle was throwing their future away by starting him instead of Russ are a million light years better than what Drew showed as second fiddle to Geno. And yet, for some as-yet-to-be-explained reason, this is proof that he's got 'upside' and 'potential'.

Look, I would LOVE if Drew turned everything around and really became a solid starter level QB. That would be a true feel good story and I would be ecstatic for him.

But Geno is ACTUALLY that feel good story and he already IS a solid starter level QB.

hoxrox · Feb 4, 2024

Parallax said:
To my eyes, Lock appears to have significantly more talent.

Really. His accuracy and presnap recognition is kind of suspect.

He was pretty clutch in that Eagles game though.

BirdsCommaAngry · Feb 4, 2024

If the eye test is the only thing asking the questions, we're going to give the wrong answers.

Hawkinaz · Feb 4, 2024

hoxrox said:
Really. His accuracy and presnap recognition is kind of suspect.

He was pretty clutch in that Eagles game though.

IMO the Hawks didn’t win the game as much as the Eagles lost it. The CB that gave up the TD was in awful position at a stage of the game you had to have known the play was a deep pass

Titus Pullo · Feb 4, 2024

I hope Lock signs with another team this season.

Rosco · Feb 4, 2024

DarkVictory23 said:
Yeah, but your 'eyes' are... wrong? Just comparing their numbers since Drew came into the league, Geno's intended air yards per PA and air yards per completion are superior to Drew's. Geno averages about a yard more per rushes overall and 2 extra yards on scramble plays.

Except Geno did show something.

Let's flash back to 2021. Both Geno and Drew get reps due to injury to their teams' respective starter (Teddy Bridgewater, in Drew's case), both actually start 3 games.

Let's take a look at how Geno and Drew respectively compared to their starters in some QB metrics:

Success Rate Passer Rating QBR ANY/A
Russell Wilson 44.6% 103.1 54.7 6.58
Geno Smith 44.4% 103.0 45.8 5.42
Teddy Bridgewater 46.0% 94.9 47.4 6.32
Drew Lock 36.7% 80.4 23.4 5.71

As you can see here, Geno showed something in his 2021 backup duties that would lead you to think: Ok, maybe we might not be in too much trouble if we let Russ walk. Geno's sack rate that year was terrible (primary reason why his QBR and ANY/A take such a hit while his success rate and passer rating are nearly identical to Russ's) but otherwise he performed at basically starter level.

Drew, on the other hand... did not. Not even close. In fact, his success rate and QBR were so bad that he actually wouldn't have charted amongst starting QBs that year if he had enough attempts to chart.

So now, we go to this year where Drew again gets multiple games under his belt...

Success Rate Passer Rating QBR ANY/A
Geno Smith 47.2% 92.1 59.5 6.39
Drew Lock 40.2% 81.2 44.9 5.39

Is a pattern starting to emerge here?

The Geno numbers that so many were convinced meant Seattle was throwing their future away by starting him instead of Russ are a million light years better than what Drew showed as second fiddle to Geno. And yet, for some as-yet-to-be-explained reason, this is proof that he's got 'upside' and 'potential'.

Look, I would LOVE if Drew turned everything around and really became a solid starter level QB. That would be a true feel good story and I would be ecstatic for him.

But Geno is ACTUALLY that feel good story and he already IS a solid starter level QB.

Geno was not drafted in 2021. Geno sucked for the vast majority of his career and is now maybe a notch above sucking. There’s a reason he was signed to a glorified one year contract.

DarkVictory23 · Feb 4, 2024

Rosco said:
Geno was not drafted in 2021. Geno sucked for the vast majority of his career and is now maybe a notch above sucking. There’s a reason he was signed to a glorified one year contract.

Was Drew drafted in 2021? Remind me.

ruffENrowdy · Feb 4, 2024

Titus Pullo said:
I hope Lock signs with another team this season.

And I hope Geno is released. Start over and see what we can do.

12forlife · Feb 4, 2024

Maelstrom787 said:
I get it, but shit man. At least add to the conversation. I explained my reasoning, so why would you reply with a simple "haha no?" That just kills discourse.

I can present some counter-arguments to my own post, if it helps.

For one, Geno has a reputation as a draft bust that he'll never shake. First impressions and all. Implicit bias will negatively affect perception of him.

Secondly, Geno is aging, decreasing his value. How much? Indeterminate.

Thirdly, this is a fairly deep quarterback draft and the teams who would possibly want a mid-range starter (like Las Vegas and New England for example) are in position to secure quarterbacks in the draft should they desire any of the options available to them. The market could evaporate, as it'd require a specific fit.

Fourth, Kirk Cousins is in this free agency class and is a better option for a team who wants to secure a short-term starter.

That said, despite this, I'd hold firm on a second as far as his current value goes given his contract and caliber of play as displayed during the past 2 years. Firmly a tier 3 quarterback.

Who are QB needy teams?
CHI
WASH
NE
NYG
ATL
LV
MINN
DEN
SEA
PIT
Who is available draft/FA
Cousins
Fields
Wilson
Smith?
Mac Jones
Williams
Maye
Daniels
McCarthy
Penix
Nix
Rattler
Travis
Pratt
As it stands there isn't much of a market for Geno? Best case scenario I see is we keep Geno as bridge/competition for rookie QBOTF. Then hope a contending teams QB goes down early and we can rake them over the coals for Geno, and hope our QBOTF is ready to roll?

flv2 · Feb 4, 2024

Parallax said:
We saw Baker play really well for McVey late in the 2022 season. I thought it was all about McVey and thought the smart move was for him to sign a backup contract there. Didn't think he could repeat it elsewhere. He and Canales proved me wrong but McVey was still the first to pull back the veil on Mayfield's potential.

Was interesting to watch the Pro Bowl. Mayfield was up against Stroud. Stroud was really going for it. Mayfield was taking on low risk throws and wound up beating Stroud by 1 point. Under McVey, however, he was going for it. At least when I was watching. It was often effective.

Mayfield was decent/average for the Rams in 2022. He was better than what we had. The OC didn't do him a lot of favours with the playcalling but the flaws he showed were already there in his game. He didn't sign a deal with the Rams. He was claimed off waivers. He might have been happier to go unclaimed and collect the rest of guaranteed salary recuperating on his couch at home. If he had done really well he wouldn't be playing for $4M in 2023.

flv2 · Feb 4, 2024

PNW25 said:
He’s 33, regressed from the year before, finished 14-17 by most metrics with multiple dudes hurt. No one is going to pay him 35 million and give up a second round pick. You can be snarky all you want but it’s just not happening. And if a team is ran terribly and they do make that move then props to Geno for getting his.

He’s a good QB but that’s a lot to mortgage a ton of resources away. Ryan had a decade of really, really good play and it was still a dumb decision by them to pay what they did.

Maybe the league knows more than I do and they think Waldron/Pete really held him back and he’s better than I think….its entirely possible. We shall see.

Smith is due $22.5M not $35M. I don't think he's worth a 2nd round pick even at that lower cost, but considering what 2 teams gave up for a broken down Wentz I wouldn't guarantee a GM overpaying for any starting QB option.

Maelstrom787 · Feb 4, 2024

12forlife said:
Who are QB needy teams?
CHI
WASH
NE
NYG
ATL
LV
MINN
DEN
SEA
PIT
Who is available draft/FA
Cousins
Fields
Wilson
Smith?
Mac Jones
Williams
Maye
Daniels
McCarthy
Penix
Nix
Rattler
Travis
Pratt
As it stands there isn't much of a market for Geno? Best case scenario I see is we keep Geno as bridge/competition for rookie QBOTF. Then hope a contending teams QB goes down early and we can rake them over the coals for Geno, and hope our QBOTF is ready to roll?

Fields is not a FA, and the only FA QB that even approaches Geno's acumen is Cousins. None of the others have put competent seasons together.

In the draft, you've got 3 stud and 3 fringe prospects who'd require either significant time to develop or a very, very specific fit in terms of actual QBOTF material.

Geno should be seen as an older Jared Goff in this type of circumstance, if we're being real. Nice on a team that is doing well elsewhere, middling when the rest of the team spins its tires.

With that being said, yes. I agree that the best case is to keep Geno for the time being and continue utilizing him as a worthy bridge that can have us competitive for a couple of years should we need it.

Maelstrom787 · Feb 4, 2024

ruffENrowdy said:
And I hope Geno is released. Start over and see what we can do.

But why?

A new regime needs initial results. They do themselves no favors by wiping the slate clean and cobbling together whatever they can at QB.

They need to come out of the gate competitively enough to elicit buy-in. If we start by spinning our wheels just because we wanted some sort of symbolic fresh start, that can doom the whole thing before we actually start cookin'.

Geno Trade Value?

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