Trade thought

oldhawkfan

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If this isn’t the right forum feel free to move or merge or whatever. After the Geno news of yesterday, I’ve found myself pondering the phrase that he “will be with the team through next week “ or something like that.

What does that mean? Why was it added to the announcement? Why wasn’t it just stated that they picked up the option for ‘24?

Here’s my take.
The Bears have the #1 pick and #9 pick in the first round. They also have Justin Fields. While I’m not a Fields fan per se, I could potentially see the following trade happen.
The Bears use the #1 pick on Caleb Williams. They then trade spots with the Seahawks by swapping the #9 pick in the first round for the Seahawks #16 pick. The Seahawks get Justin Fields and the Bears get Geno Smith.

Before y’all tear me a new one, hear me out on some of these factoids. The Bears believe that Williams will be a better pro QB than Fields. Williams is only 20 and might need some seasoning before being “the guy”. Fields is not the kind of veteran that could be considered a bridge QB or even a valuable vet to mentor a high pick to take his job. Geno is that guy.
The Bears have the 3rd most cap $ available with roughly $67mil. Fields cap hit is $6.5 million for ‘24 with the 5th year option for ‘25 still on the table.

The Seahawks would be gaining valuable cap space by swapping Geno for Fields. Geno is somewhere around $25 million for ‘24. By my calculations, they would have a net gain of around $20 million based on the swap alone. I’m not a capologist or even that well versed on these things as some of you but I just used simple math.

Chicago has the cap space and Seattle needs cap help. Win/win. Chicago needs a vet presence at QB to mentor Williams. Seattle needs to address the QB position (eventually or now). Fields could compete with Lock or a potential rookie QBOTF.

With the #9 pick, the Seahawks can address one of the many holes on the team with a top 10 pick. Or John could then use that pick to trade back for a team that really wants to get into the top 10 while recouping the 2nd round pick and possibly more.
 

seabowl

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Would never happen. Based on the draft chart, this is what the trade would look like:

Seahawks get:
•9th pick
•Justin Fields
•55th pick (that’s what a move up from 16-9 is equivalent to, 350 draft points)

Bears get:
•16th pick
•Geno

The Bears would laugh and hang up the phone. This may even top the Rick Mirer trade.
 
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keasley45

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If this isn’t the right forum feel free to move or merge or whatever. After the Geno news of yesterday, I’ve found myself pondering the phrase that he “will be with the team through next week “ or something like that.

What does that mean? Why was it added to the announcement? Why wasn’t it just stated that they picked up the option for ‘24?

Here’s my take.
The Bears have the #1 pick and #9 pick in the first round. They also have Justin Fields. While I’m not a Fields fan per se, I could potentially see the following trade happen.
The Bears use the #1 pick on Caleb Williams. They then trade spots with the Seahawks by swapping the #9 pick in the first round for the Seahawks #16 pick. The Seahawks get Justin Fields and the Bears get Geno Smith.

Before y’all tear me a new one, hear me out on some of these factoids. The Bears believe that Williams will be a better pro QB than Fields. Williams is only 20 and might need some seasoning before being “the guy”. Fields is not the kind of veteran that could be considered a bridge QB or even a valuable vet to mentor a high pick to take his job. Geno is that guy.
The Bears have the 3rd most cap $ available with roughly $67mil. Fields cap hit is $6.5 million for ‘24 with the 5th year option for ‘25 still on the table.

The Seahawks would be gaining valuable cap space by swapping Geno for Fields. Geno is somewhere around $25 million for ‘24. By my calculations, they would have a net gain of around $20 million based on the swap alone. I’m not a capologist or even that well versed on these things as some of you but I just used simple math.

Chicago has the cap space and Seattle needs cap help. Win/win. Chicago needs a vet presence at QB to mentor Williams. Seattle needs to address the QB position (eventually or now). Fields could compete with Lock or a potential rookie QBOTF.

With the #9 pick, the Seahawks can address one of the many holes on the team with a top 10 pick. Or John could then use that pick to trade back for a team that really wants to get into the top 10 while recouping the 2nd round pick and possibly more.
The 'will be with the team through this week...' thing wasn't part of a seahawks announcement. It was how Schefter represented it. I think he's likely just hedging his bets. These reporters always want to be the first to report a thing. If he says - geno will be with the Seahawks for 2024, and we do move him, he looks like he's on the outside looking in. If he states the facts simply, he gives himself max flexibility to pivot to whatever outcome my arise. What he said was the simplest fact- geno is on the roster 'right now' and 'until he isnt'.
 

Mase

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- I think it is just a massive overreaction to a minor statement. The reason it mattered was money becoming guaranteed "if he was on the roster through this week". So he pointed out that Smith would be on the Seahawks roster "through this week", thus activating the change in structure. It wasn't meant to make any innuendo about where he will be two weeks or twenty weeks from now.

Mase
 

therealjohncarlson

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Why would the bears take on more cap space to get a worse qb (or at least with less future potential) and get worse draft position?
 
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TheLegendOfBoom

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Props to the OP for bringing up this topic.

I can’t honestly say Justin Fields is a great or bad QB. The Bears are such a bad franchise that if you gave them prime Peyton Manning or prime Brady, the Bears may still have issues at QB…

That’s how bad of an organization they are.

What I don’t think Schneider and Macdonald “wants” to do is coming out the gates swinging trades left and right.

I think Schneider had “enough” of player trades with Carroll that he would prefer to build via draft picks and releasing dead weight.

I think if Schenider comes out adding more trades, he would quickly run out of patience with Jody Allen and if they don’t work out immediately, Schneider is probably closer to being gone than remaining.

I think trades are in the best interest of the Seahawks to move picks rather than bodies right now. I can see Fields coming to Seattle and it not working out and Macdonald having to deal with this mess that he probably doesn’t want to deal with immediately on his plate. Who would want that?

This first off season at least in my opinion will be trimming the “fat” with players that do not belong here and then adding for the future with draft picks. Getting (trading for) established players right now are more so a luxury that Seattle does not have (and that’s also a Pete Carroll strategy).

Been there done that, more or less.

But who knows, anything can happen…
 
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oldhawkfan

oldhawkfan

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Why would the bears take on more cap space to get a worse qb and get worse draft position?
They have the #1 pick and the #9 pick. By most accounts they will pick QB Caleb Williams with the overall #1 pick. I highly doubt they would use both the 1 and 9 picks on a QB. IMHO, they have partly messed up their QB picks by not having a solid veteran presence.
They messed up with Mitch Trubisky in the ‘17 draft and then went back to the QB pick with Fields in ‘21. Now, 3 years later they are evidently dipping into the QB well again.
They messed up with Trubisky Andy Fields by not having the veteran bridge QB to give the pick time to acclimate to the NFL game. Geno could be that guy for them.
The Bears have $67 million in cap space. Fields obviously isn’t the guy for them and Williams or Maye or whoever else they might take in the first round is also no guarantee. At least with Geno they have an idea of what he’s capable of in the NFL.

I’m not sure exactly advocating for this trade to happen, I just think it has possibilities to happen and could help both teams.
 

SonicHawk

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Their mistake was picking Trubisky, not lack of veteran presence.

When Chicago picks Caleb, he will be the starter day one and for the long run. There is no value to the Bears in filling up cap space with a bench QB. You can pick up veteran QBs for a lot less expensive than Geno as well.

Plus moving up to #9 for Seattle means you get... just about the same options as you had at #16. Plus Chicago desperately needs to pick up a high-profile WR for Caleb.
 

RiverDog

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I don't doubt that the Bears might be ready to move on from Fields and take someone like Williams in this year's draft, but I don't know why they'd want to take on Geno.

Rather than trading the Bears Geno, a deal I'd like to see go down would be us swapping places with them, their #9 for our #16, and getting their 2025 first rounder for Metcalf. It would probably have to be a draft day deal as it would be dependent on who's available at #9.
 

NoGain

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Yup. Geno make little to no sense to me for the Bears. They pick Williams, he starts right away. They stick with Fields, they're paying him a bunch of money.
 

MontanaHawk05

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Geno isn't worth the #9 to the Bears and he'd be a far better bridge QB than Fields. Neither team is going to see the value in this, even for clearing out $20m in cap space.
 

SoulfishHawk

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I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs trade for Tyler. His cap # is way up there, they need reliable WR's who actually catch the ball, and he played for Kansas State.
I'm NOT saying this going to happen, or that I want it to. But just something I've been thinking COULD happen. JSN is right there to take over as the #2.
 

lukerguy

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The Bears would never draft a player #1 and then bench him. The fans would riot the GM office.
 

lukerguy

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I feel like your most likely scenario would be Geno to Pittsburgh for Pitt 2 (51) and a later pick.
 

flv2

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I think Fields is slightly more valuable than Smith. That or he's significantly more valuable. If the Bears don't want Fields getting in the new QB's way then they don't want Smith doing it either, and certainly not with a $22.5M price tag. I could see the Seahawks trading Smith somewhere else 'for something' and then paying a heavy price to move up into the top 5 for QB3 or #9 for QB4. Maybe they're prepared to miss out on a QB and they let the Draft come to them. Maybe they're happy with their plan for where they are for 2024 and the Smith press statement is just a smokescreen.

No chance of Fields & #9 for Smith and #16. Just on trade value the Seahawks would likely have to add their 2nd & 3rd round picks in 2025.
 

getnasty

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If you could just trade Geno for Fields that would be a win in my opinion.
 
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