Just to be clear, do you believe that’s what you believe he should be worth? Or what teams would actually give us if we tried to trade him?
I believe it's his current market value, but requires a specific fit as any trade for a veteran QB would. I can explain this. It's not my fandom. I'm basing his value off of other trades.
My main examples here are the Matt Ryan trade, Sam Darnold trade, and Sam Bradford trades.
Sam Bradford went for Nick Foles, a second, and a fourth to Philadelphia. He then went for a first and fourth to Minnesota. He was not playing as well as Geno Smith's 2023 at any point in his entire career, let alone his 2022 season.
Sam Darnold went for a second, fourth, and sixth rounder in 2021 to Carolina. He also has never played as well as Geno Smith's 2023 season, let alone 2022.
Matt Ryan went for a third in 2022 despite being in obvious decline, being older, and having a single year left on his contract (and quite obviously his career). He had not played as well as Geno in 2022 for 3 years running at that point, and was only roughly on par with his 2023 (but his arm was declining at a precipitous rate).
Those previous examples, given these quarterbacks various careers and contracts up to that point, land me at a second rounder when considering Geno's current play, his age, and the fact that his contract gives two years of control at only the 18th highest average per year among NFL quarterbacks. Geno is a tier 3 quarterback that is able to start at a competent level with significant upside to outperform his 2023 numbers if given an upgrade in protection and especially if given an upgrade in defense, and that's worth about a second rounder given these previous trades.
Would I have made any of those trades?
No. No, I would not have. But other GMs have, so that's the value I'm sticking to.
Rick Spielman apparently agrees with a second round valuation according to his podcast. At least, someone posted that earlier in the thread.
I detest the fact that reasoned football opinions are dismissed as pointless fandom. I'm not just posting this for the fun of it. I'm doing the work to analyze what I think the rightful market valuation of Geno Smith is, and putting my supporting examples into my posts. I get it if others scoff or whatever, but I'd at least like to be engaged with a good faith rebuttal based on reason and supporting data instead of what's been going on here.