Geno Trade Value?

[12forlife]

This is where the upside vs. ability comes into play. Right? Some people act like Jordan Love is obviously better than Geno, yet on paper, they are virtually identical. The only meaningful difference is age and the mythical potential of a younger player.

If the goal is winning a championship next season, all else equal, I'd rather have Geno than Carr, Mayfield, Tua, Murray, Watson, and possibly Hurts. Things change if we're talking about the long-term future of a franchise. But next season, easily Geno. In fact, if I were Miami, I'd be salivating at the possibility of getting Geno at 30M rather than paying Tua.

So you run with Geno again next year paying him money we could use on a FA of the future to end up 9-8 again, and draft in the middle of the draft we're we can't afford to move up in a weaker QB class? Don't make much sense

 

[LastRideOut]

Geno to the Texans for Stroud, their '24 first and second, '25 first and second, and '26 third along with a conditional fourth and sixth if Geno plays 70% of total snaps.

No less than that.

 

[Parallax]

My friends, why do we argue over stuff like this. We have no control over anything and before long it will all play out right in front of us. We can share our ideas of what we think will go down without discord. I personally think there's no way we'll get anything close to a second rounder for Geno. I'd be happy to take a 7th and I'd be content if Schneider simply cuts him. I hear rumors that the front office thinks he's worth something. We'll see.

It would not be my preference for Geno to lead the team in 2024 but if it happens I won't complain. I'm super happy with the firing of Carroll and the selection of the new staff. Whether it ultimately works out or not, I'll always believe Schneider did a great job (given that, like us, he has no crystal ball). If they collectively decide to go with Geno another season, I'll defer to their judgment and hope for the best.

 

[bigcc]

So you run with Geno again next year paying him money we could use on a FA of the future to end up 9-8 again, and draft in the middle of the draft we're we can't afford to move up in a weaker QB class? Don't make much sense

Well said

 

[pittpnthrs]

Well, Mr. No Way in Hell... Cousins is coming off an injury and he is older.

And when next season starts and he has signed a much more lucrative contract than Smith, I expect you to revisit this thread and give me a shout out.

 

[therealjohncarlson]

Says the guy not engaging with any of the actual arguments about the precedents for that valuation, and instead dismissing it instantly as ridiculous with no logical counter whatsoever.

Open to hearing you out if you've got anything other than shitty little drive-bys.

Just to be clear, do you believe that’s what you believe he should be worth? Or what teams would actually give us if we tried to trade him?

 

[12forlife]

My friends, why do we argue over stuff like this. We have no control over anything and before long it will all play out right in front of us. We can share our ideas of what we think will go down without discord. I personally think there's no way we'll get anything close to a second rounder for Geno. I'd be happy to take a 7th and I'd be content if Schneider simply cuts him. I hear rumors that the front office thinks he's worth something. We'll see.

It would not be my preference for Geno to lead the team in 2024 but if it happens I won't complain. I'm super happy with the firing of Carroll and the selection of the new staff. Whether it ultimately works out or not, I'll always believe Schneider did a great job (given that, like us, he has no crystal ball). If they collectively decide to go with Geno another season, I'll defer to their judgment and hope for the best.

^ Preach

 

[JayhawkMike]

Looks like the Eagles gave Hassan Reddick permission to seek a trade. What if we offered Geno straight up? ROFL.

 

[therealjohncarlson]

Looks like the Eagles gave Hassan Reddick permission to seek a trade. What if we offered Geno straight up? ROFL.

Why would they want geno? Haha

 

[BASF]

Did my best to avoid this thread as it was going to be the same posters dismissive of Geno for the same reasons ad nauseum and the same posters defending Geno. I especially love the little quips from the ones to dismiss, as they are so original.



As far as trade value, I don't think we even look at trading Geno. Our GM said that we underachieved last season, and I guarantee you he knows well enough that our twenty-fifth ranked in points and thirtieth ranked in yards defense was the main culprit. It is why we hired a defensive coach. We have talent, we needed new direction for them.

The offense was hampered by Shane Waldron's repeat plays and the lack of cohesive line play. That Geno did as well as he did is surprising considering Waldron largely ignored the run game and our line played well in maybe six games.

I get the we want to tank because we need a reset from the fans who have no consequences, but these are professionals whose livelihood is on the line. They having to uproot their families when they fail. I guarantee you a part of the culture that ownership wants preserved is the Win Forever, All In attitude that Carroll championed. They will more than likely keep Geno this season, because it is the best path to competing this season. Do any of you actually believe that John Schneider hired the best coaching prospect by selling, "We are going to cut a bunch of our veterans this season so we will not field that competitive a team, but you can have this season as a Mulligan?"

 

[Parallax]

Did my best to avoid this thread as it was going to be the same posters dismissive of Geno for the same reasons ad nauseum and the same posters defending Geno. I especially love the little quips from the ones to dismiss, as they are so original.

View attachment 64904

As far as trade value, I don't think we even look at trading Geno. Our GM said that we underachieved last season, and I guarantee you he knows well enough that our twenty-fifth ranked in points and thirtieth ranked in yards defense was the main culprit. It is why we hired a defensive coach. We have talent, we needed new direction for them.

The offense was hampered by Shane Waldron's repeat plays and the lack of cohesive line play. That Geno did as well as he did is surprising considering Waldron largely ignored the run game and our line played well in maybe six games.

I get the we want to tank because we need a reset from the fans who have no consequences, but these are professionals whose livelihood is on the line. They having to uproot their families when they fail. I guarantee you a part of the culture that ownership wants preserved is the Win Forever, All In attitude that Carroll championed. They will more than likely keep Geno this season, because it is the best path to competing this season. Do any of you actually believe that John Schneider hired the best coaching prospect by selling, "We are going to cut a bunch of our veterans this season so we will not field that competitive a team, but you can have this season as a Mulligan?"

I'm sure he didn't say that. I'm also thinking he's likely not obsessed with our record this year. I'm sure he, the coaches and players have no interest in deliberately tanking but I think they have the patience to do what needs to be done to build long term even in that results in us stepping back from mediocrity for a season or two, with the goal of eventually rising above mediocrity.

I think it's possible they keep Geno but if I were betting, I'd have my money on the team moving on from him before the season opener. Either by trade or by cutting him.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Just to be clear, do you believe that’s what you believe he should be worth? Or what teams would actually give us if we tried to trade him?

I believe it's his current market value, but requires a specific fit as any trade for a veteran QB would. I can explain this. It's not my fandom. I'm basing his value off of other trades.

My main examples here are the Matt Ryan trade, Sam Darnold trade, and Sam Bradford trades.

Sam Bradford went for Nick Foles, a second, and a fourth to Philadelphia. He then went for a first and fourth to Minnesota. He was not playing as well as Geno Smith's 2023 at any point in his entire career, let alone his 2022 season.

Sam Darnold went for a second, fourth, and sixth rounder in 2021 to Carolina. He also has never played as well as Geno Smith's 2023 season, let alone 2022.

Matt Ryan went for a third in 2022 despite being in obvious decline, being older, and having a single year left on his contract (and quite obviously his career). He had not played as well as Geno in 2022 for 3 years running at that point, and was only roughly on par with his 2023 (but his arm was declining at a precipitous rate).

Those previous examples, given these quarterbacks various careers and contracts up to that point, land me at a second rounder when considering Geno's current play, his age, and the fact that his contract gives two years of control at only the 18th highest average per year among NFL quarterbacks. Geno is a tier 3 quarterback that is able to start at a competent level with significant upside to outperform his 2023 numbers if given an upgrade in protection and especially if given an upgrade in defense, and that's worth about a second rounder given these previous trades.

Would I have made any of those trades?

No. No, I would not have. But other GMs have, so that's the value I'm sticking to.

Rick Spielman apparently agrees with a second round valuation according to his podcast. At least, someone posted that earlier in the thread.

I detest the fact that reasoned football opinions are dismissed as pointless fandom. I'm not just posting this for the fun of it. I'm doing the work to analyze what I think the rightful market valuation of Geno Smith is, and putting my supporting examples into my posts. I get it if others scoff or whatever, but I'd at least like to be engaged with a good faith rebuttal based on reason and supporting data instead of what's been going on here.

 

[bigcc]

Did my best to avoid this thread as it was going to be the same posters dismissive of Geno for the same reasons ad nauseum and the same posters defending Geno. I especially love the little quips from the ones to dismiss, as they are so original.

View attachment 64904

As far as trade value, I don't think we even look at trading Geno. Our GM said that we underachieved last season, and I guarantee you he knows well enough that our twenty-fifth ranked in points and thirtieth ranked in yards defense was the main culprit. It is why we hired a defensive coach. We have talent, we needed new direction for them.

The offense was hampered by Shane Waldron's repeat plays and the lack of cohesive line play. That Geno did as well as he did is surprising considering Waldron largely ignored the run game and our line played well in maybe six games.

I get the we want to tank because we need a reset from the fans who have no consequences, but these are professionals whose livelihood is on the line. They having to uproot their families when they fail. I guarantee you a part of the culture that ownership wants preserved is the Win Forever, All In attitude that Carroll championed. They will more than likely keep Geno this season, because it is the best path to competing this season. Do any of you actually believe that John Schneider hired the best coaching prospect by selling, "We are going to cut a bunch of our veterans this season so we will not field that competitive a team, but you can have this season as a Mulligan?"

Today I learned that drafting qb of the future and using money saved from geno to re-sign guys like leonard or Bobby= lose now.

Do you actually believe Macdonald signed a 6 year contract with the thought process of
" well, we'll need to draft qb of the future in 1-2 years, but I'd rather be mid now and deal with it later "

I llike geno more than anyone else (maybe hyperbole, you get the point) that wants to move on.

It has literally nothing to do with skill, he's the easiest and most likely route to winning immediately.... But our ceiling is 9 wins, and that's very generous.

Sorry, but 9 wins isn't worth pushing the eventual growing pains further down the road.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Today I learned that drafting qb of the future and using money saved from geno to re-sign guys like leonard or Bobby= lose now.

Do you actually believe Macdonald signed a 6 year contract with the thought process of
" well, we'll need to draft qb of the future in 1-2 years, but I'd rather be mid now and deal with it later "

I llike geno more than anyone else (maybe hyperbole, you get the point) that wants to move on.

It has literally nothing to do with skill, he's the easiest and most likely route to winning immediately.... But our ceiling is 9 wins, and that's very generous.

Sorry, but 9 wins isn't worth pushing the eventual growing pains further down the road.

I'm sorry, I've got to ask this in response to your strong claim about the 9-win ceiling.

Given that we've achieved 9 wins in each of the previous 2 years while dragging along a putrid, bottom-3 defense and having little true success in the rushing game during either year - how is it that our ceiling isn't any higher than what we've achieved twice while being terrible everywhere outside of the passing game?

You're saying that a team starting Geno Smith is hard capped at 9 wins and that improving the defense from bottom-3 to league average or better, improving line play, and improving the rushing attack adds zero potential wins to our ceiling? How? We lost numerous one score games this year, and a defense that isn't absolutely dreadful wouldn't have changed ANY of those outcomes?

 

[bigcc]

My friends, why do we argue over stuff like this. We have no control over anything and before long it will all play out right in front of us. We can share our ideas of what we think will go down without discord. I personally think there's no way we'll get anything close to a second rounder for Geno. I'd be happy to take a 7th and I'd be content if Schneider simply cuts him. I hear rumors that the front office thinks he's worth something. We'll see.

It would not be my preference for Geno to lead the team in 2024 but if it happens I won't complain. I'm super happy with the firing of Carroll and the selection of the new staff. Whether it ultimately works out or not, I'll always believe Schneider did a great job (given that, like us, he has no crystal ball). If they collectively decide to go with Geno another season, I'll defer to their judgment and hope for the best.

We argue because it's the offseason tbh.

I highly doubt it's this contentious when discussing weekly happenings.

But as of right now, it's a wild time as a seahawks fan.... Everyone has a lot of questions, and upcoming events (2/16, combine, 3/17, draft, overarching FA

These events dictate the hawks immediate future as at the bare minimum, we can get an idea of the direction the team is going.

We're all passionate about the team or we wouldn't have found our way here,and there's a lot at stake. I can't speak for anyone else but I certainly don't take disagreements personally, and I really think the vast majority here don't either.

..... Except for the lock believers, pretty sure that's a psyop from his family, can't tell me otherwise

 

[LastRideOut]

Today I learned that drafting qb of the future and using money saved from geno to re-sign guys like leonard or Bobby= lose now.

Do you actually believe Macdonald signed a 6 year contract with the thought process of
" well, we'll need to draft qb of the future in 1-2 years, but I'd rather be mid now and deal with it later "

I llike geno more than anyone else (maybe hyperbole, you get the point) that wants to move on.

It has literally nothing to do with skill, he's the easiest and most likely route to winning immediately.... But our ceiling is 9 wins, and that's very generous.

Sorry, but 9 wins isn't worth pushing the eventual growing pains further down the road.

I agree. However I wonder if MM's thought process is to develop the scouting department and invest in it to make the choice for the franchise quarterback while simultaneously fielding a competitive team. There's no rule that says Seattle can't have a great season with Geno and then make the transition to the drafted quarterback the following season, regardless of which round the quartback was drafted in.

 

[bigcc]

I'm sorry, I've got to ask this in response to your strong claim about the 9-win ceiling.

Given that we've achieved 9 wins in each of the previous 2 years while dragging along a putrid, bottom-3 defense and having little true success in the rushing game during either year - how is it that our ceiling isn't any higher than what we've achieved twice while being terrible everywhere outside of the passing game?

You're saying that a team starting Geno Smith is hard capped at 9 wins and that improving the defense from bottom-3 to league average or better, improving line play, and improving the rushing attack adds zero potential wins to our ceiling? How? We lost numerous one score games this year, and a defense that isn't absolutely dreadful wouldn't have changed ANY of those outcomes?

1st time HC at ANY level
1st time DC at ANY level
1st time COACH in the nfl at OC
1st time OL coach in the nfl

The only person with real experience in the nfl is our assistant HC, who was 21-32-1 in his HC years. (he was a great hire don't twist, but being real).

BTW we're at -5 mil in cap space and need to resign these fellas to match our 9 win team.

Leonard williams
Bobby wagner
Noah Fant
Jordyn brooks
Evan Brown
Damian lewis
Darrell Taylor
Colby Parkinson

I'm skipping a few, but going to be hard to rebuild that 9 win team with negative five million dollars.

I'm ecstatic for the future and think things are bright and shiny, but you're fooling yourself if you think geno is enough to cover everything I just listed.

He's 34 this season. He's not going to suddenly get better, much more likely getting worse (see the last two years).

He's learning an entirely new scheme with an entirely new coaching staff (do we even have a qb coach yet?).

Cmon man, which is more likely?

 

[12forlife]

I'm sorry, I've got to ask this in response to your strong claim about the 9-win ceiling.

Given that we've achieved 9 wins in each of the previous 2 years while dragging along a putrid, bottom-3 defense and having little true success in the rushing game during either year - how is it that our ceiling isn't any higher than what we've achieved twice while being terrible everywhere outside of the passing game?

You're saying that a team starting Geno Smith is hard capped at 9 wins and that improving the defense from bottom-3 to league average or better, improving line play, and improving the rushing attack adds zero potential wins to our ceiling? How? We lost numerous one score games this year, and a defense that isn't absolutely dreadful wouldn't have changed ANY of those outcomes?

Agree with alot of what you are saying, but while Geno was with the team for years and still could t run our full playbook, Geno isn't the sharpest tool in the shed. So now we are going to have a completely different offensive scheme & playbook. Why would we slow our offense down with watching Geno struggle through a new playbook for a season, when it could just as easily be spent on a cheaper vet competing with our Rookie QBOTF? Geno as our starting QB is NOT winning us a SB next year, at best we make the playoffs, getting our teeth kicked in the 1st round, then drafting around #20? Then still stuck with Geno because you have no chance to move up again for a QBOTF? Geno is a scab we need to rip off, and move on!

 

[bigcc]

I agree. However I wonder if MM's thought process is to develop the scouting department and invest in it to make the choice for the franchise quarterback while simultaneously fielding a competitive team. There's no rule that says Seattle can't have a great season with Geno and then make the transition to the drafted quarterback the following season, regardless of which round the quartback was drafted in.

Next years qb class is pretty much unanimously considered significantly worse than this one from top to bottom.

If it was even closer to as strong as this one I'd have an entirely different opinion, but unfortunately we don't.

I don't agree with the scouting department portion though, it's still john and his boys up there, and him having full power can either be amazing or terrifying, we don't know who made what choices with Pete in charge so who knows....

I will say if Schneider and crew need to develop the scouting department, it's going to take longer than a year lol

 

[Parallax]

He's learning an entirely new scheme with an entirely new coaching staff (do we even have a qb coach yet?).

Don't know but, at UW, Grubb was OC and coached QBs.