3-14, predicted by CBS sports.

[Scout]

Based on talent alone this is a .500 club. I think they are thinking 3 wins because they feel the QB position is that unsettled. But given that this team is built to be a run oriented offense even more so without RW I am not sure why they think 3 wins is the ceiling for this team IMO.

 

[rcaido]

It's funny, there are never any qualifications for Wilson stacking his 'cooking' stats in 2020 against teams like the vikings who were last in 2020 for points allowed, the falcons, who finished the year last in pass defense or the cowboys, who were also ranked in the bottom 5th.

Are you pulling Genos stats for last year?

Your brought up the 68% 3rd Down completion w/ Geno. Yes this was last years stats. Geno had a 31% conversion rate on 3rd downs. He was also sacked 6 times.

 

[Rat]

Clickbait. Just like all those articles with irresponsible speculation about how Russ could be traded. Journalism these days smh..

 

[onanygivensunday]

It's based on a 100-dollar bet. So +118 means you would get your 100 back +118 dollars. -140 means you would get your 100 back +40, so you are betting 100 bucks to win 40.

I believe that the first part is correct. In this case, you bet $100 to win $118, so if you win, you get back $218. If you lose, you're out $100.

My understanding of the second part (over 5.5, -140) is you have to bet $140 to win $100... so if you win, you would get back $240. If you lose, you're out $140.

 

[hawkfan68]

Your brought up the 68% 3rd Down completion w/ Geno. Yes this was last years stats. Geno had a 31% conversion rate on 3rd downs. He was also sacked 6 times.

Here's the link that mentions the 3rd down conversion stats. It says that Smith was 31% rate and Lock was worse at 29%.
https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/gm-...52500002619&pid=quick-passing-game-geno-smith

 

[toffee]

Your brought up the 68% 3rd Down completion w/ Geno. Yes this was last years stats. Geno had a 31% conversion rate on 3rd downs. He was also sacked 6 times.

Analysis: What's Behind Seahawks' Chronic Third Down Troubles?

At the center of their fall to the bottom of the NFC, the Seahawks rank 25th in scoring offense in large part due to their inability to sustain drives thanks to poor performance on third down. What has been behind these season-long struggles?

www.si.com

++++
There's not a quarterback controversy in Seattle, but it is worth noting that backup Geno Smith performed much more efficiently on third down in four games played, including three starts replacing Wilson. Along with posting a completion rate nearly 30 points higher, he completed eight passes for first downs, only two less than his counterpart on 15 less attempts. He also threw for a slightly higher 6.3 yards per attempt and a passer rating close to 23 points better.
++++

That fitted my eyeball test, just felt the offense was moving smoother with Geno, smoother, but also lacking a bit of entertainment value. Geno's plays won't make highlight reels, Russ's would. Converting a 5yards 3rd down pass won't wow any media talking heads, a 30 yards pass thrown from 20 yards behind line of scrimmage due to Houdini act guarantees media attention.

 

[sdog1981]

I believe that the first part is correct. In this case, you bet $100 to win $118, so if you win, you get back $218. If you lose, you're out $100.

My understanding of the second part (over 5.5, -140) is you have to bet $140 to win $100... so if you win, you would get back $240. If you lose, you're out $140.

You are correct, I mixed up the numbers. You would need to bet 140 dollars to win 100.

 

[rcaido]

Here's the link that mentions the 3rd down conversion stats. It says that Smith was 31% rate and Lock was worse at 29%.
https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/gm-...52500002619&pid=quick-passing-game-geno-smith

yup that's the one i was looking at. i wasn't going to bring up Lock, i mean not yet hehehe. We have the two worst 3rd down conversion QB in the NFL last year. Wilson was 47.5%

Analysis: What's Behind Seahawks' Chronic Third Down Troubles?

At the center of their fall to the bottom of the NFC, the Seahawks rank 25th in scoring offense in large part due to their inability to sustain drives thanks to poor performance on third down. What has been behind these season-long struggles?

www.si.com

++++
There's not a quarterback controversy in Seattle, but it is worth noting that backup Geno Smith performed much more efficiently on third down in four games played, including three starts replacing Wilson. Along with posting a completion rate nearly 30 points higher, he completed eight passes for first downs, only two less than his counterpart on 15 less attempts. He also threw for a slightly higher 6.3 yards per attempt and a passer rating close to 23 points better.
++++

That fitted my eyeball test, just felt the offense was moving smoother with Geno, smoother, but also lacking a bit of entertainment value. Geno's plays won't make highlight reels, Russ's would. Converting a 5yards 3rd down pass won't wow any media talking heads, a 30 yards pass thrown from 20 yards behind line of scrimmage due to Houdini act guarantees media attention.

Well you need to check your eyeball & bias. As noted by me & hawkfan68 the 68% is really not great. Its actually really bad, as Geno(31%) 3rd down conversion was one of the worse in the league only behind Drew Lock (29%).

 

[John63]

Based on talent alone this is a .500 club. I think they are thinking 3 wins because they feel the QB position is that unsettled. But given that this team is built to be a run oriented offense even more so without RW I am not sure why they think 3 wins is the ceiling for this team IMO.

.500 no way 5 wins at most

 

[GemCity]

6…absolute max. If it’s 3 though, I’m not really going to be disappointed….

I’m ready to nab our future QB

 

[keasley45]

yup that's the one i was looking at. i wasn't going to bring up Lock, i mean not yet hehehe. We have the two worst 3rd down conversion QB in the NFL last year. Wilson was 47.5%

Well you need to check your eyeball & bias. As noted by me & hawkfan68 the 68% is really not great. Its actually really bad, as Geno(31%) 3rd down conversion was one of the worse in the league only behind Drew Lock (29%).

Love the data, just gotta say that. Much prefer a convo about facts than conspiracy.

But where are you finding stats the russel converted 47% of his 3rd downs. That must be including running, because for the season, through the air, the number I saw was 37% conversion on 3rd down and distances between 1 and 11 yards.

Geno was sacked 6 times, true. 5 came in one game. That dropped his conversion percentage considerably. And that game was against Watt and the Steelers. In his 3 other games played, he was sacked once.

Didn't see Locks conversion percentage on 3rd, but his rating in 2019 on that down was a positive in limited action.

 

[flv2]

I believe that the first part is correct. In this case, you bet $100 to win $118, so if you win, you get back $218. If you lose, you're out $100.

My understanding of the second part (over 5.5, -140) is you have to bet $140 to win $100... so if you win, you would get back $240. If you lose, you're out $140.

This is correct. A + sign means you win the figure, (at least 100), for every 100 you wager. +350 would mean $10 wins you $25 plus your stake unit back. A - sign means you have to wager 100, or more, (the actual - number), to win 100 plus your stake unit back. -500 would mean you had to wager $50 to win $10 and your stake unit back.

These numbers can be converted into percentages which should total more than 100% if the Sportsbook has done it's job properly. +118 would equate to 100% X 100 / (100+118)...which would be 45.872%. -140 would equate to 100% X 140 / (100 +140)...which would be 58.333%. The total 'book' price, (expected profit margin), would be 104.205%. If the book took equal liabilities on either side they would stand to win $4.205 from every multiple of $104.205 that was staked. By implication the Sportsbook 'true' odds would be the percentages from the book price factored back to 100%. This would mean the true Over should be 58.333% X 100 / 104.205...which would be 55.979%.

 

[sc85sis]

Not the Trojans,

I want to win the precise number of games it takes in order for PC to retire/get fired after this year. That would be the best long term for this team. To think that after next year we will have won THREE TOTAL playoff games in EIGHT YEARS. That is failure.

That said every game I’ll be rooting for us.

No, the best would be for the team to win a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years. Then, if he wants to, Pete could retire as a likely future Hall of Fame coach - having the LoB, four years straight of the D leading in fewest points given up, two Super bowl wins (and nearly a third) and multiple playoff appearances on his resume.

 

[rcaido]

Love the data, just gotta say that. Much prefer a convo about facts than conspiracy.

But where are you finding stats the russel converted 47% of his 3rd downs. That must be including running, because for the season, through the air, the number I saw was 37% conversion on 3rd down and distances between 1 and 11 yards.

Geno was sacked 6 times, true. 5 came in one game. That dropped his conversion percentage considerably. And that game was against Watt and the Steelers. In his 3 other games played, he was sacked once.

Didn't see Locks conversion percentage on 3rd, but his rating in 2019 on that down was a positive in limited action.

These are passing stats for 2021, i didn't even bother looking at rushing.

So i checked, it looks like Wilson rushed the ball 15 times on 3rd down & converted an amazing 10 firstdowns & 1 TD. Making it 73% ratio. Wilson on 3rd down including rushing is actually 51%. Geno as the link showed was 31% & Lock 29% in 2021.

Here is the actual breakdown of 3rd down for Wilson

1-3yrds 3rd downs
73% Passing
100% Rushing
80% Overall

4-7yrds 3rd downs
20/44 Passing
100% Rushing
54.5% Overall

8-10yrds 3rd downs
48% Passing
25% Rushing
Overall 44%

11yrds+
23.5 %
0% Rush attempt 1 for 12yrds but did not get a first on it.
Overall 16%

Looking at the stats, it looks like all the people that complain about Wilson not getting the easy yards seems to be mistaken. He converted an amazing 80% on very short downs. Wilson really struggled on 3rd downs 11yrd or more.

 

[hawkfan68]

Biggest damning stat on 3rd down for Smith is that he did complete 68% of his throws, yet only 8 of those resulted in 1st downs or moved the chains. That is only 36.3%. What’s the point of completing a pass on 3rd down if it doesn’t result in moving the chains? Every NFL QB can complete short throws and beef up their comp pct.

 

[onanygivensunday]

What’s the point of completing a pass on 3rd down if it doesn’t result in moving the chains?

Perhaps the play call was relying on the receiver to evade the first defender... and they failed.

 

[hawkfan68]

Perhaps the play call was relying on the receiver to evade the first defender... and they failed.

Agreed. But that could be said for other QBs who folks are claiming to be ineffective on 3rd downs too. How many times have the receivers dropped the pass, didn't evade the defender, etc.

 

[onanygivensunday]

Agreed. But that could be said for other QBs who folks are claiming to be ineffective on 3rd downs too. How many times have the receivers dropped the pass, didn't evade the defender, etc.

Well, we certainly don't have the likes of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, do we?

 

[hawkfan68]

Well, we certainly don't have the likes of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, do we?

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are top 15 WRs and I would them in the same class as Deebo. Could it be that they weren’t used in the same manner as Samuel? Kittle is a top 3 TE so definitely no one on the Seahawk roster comes close. If you look at first downs made stat, Samuel had 51, DK had 48, Kittle had 42, and Tyler had 41. So fairly even.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-stats/receiving/2021/regular-season?sort=recfd

 

[keasley45]

These are passing stats for 2021, i didn't even bother looking at rushing.

So i checked, it looks like Wilson rushed the ball 15 times on 3rd down & converted an amazing 10 firstdowns & 1 TD. Making it 73% ratio. Wilson on 3rd down including rushing is actually 51%. Geno as the link showed was 31% & Lock 29% in 2021.

Here is the actual breakdown of 3rd down for Wilson

1-3yrds 3rd downs
73% Passing
100% Rushing
80% Overall

4-7yrds 3rd downs
20/44 Passing
100% Rushing
54.5% Overall

8-10yrds 3rd downs
48% Passing
25% Rushing
Overall 44%

11yrds+
23.5 %
0% Rush attempt 1 for 12yrds but did not get a first on it.
Overall 16%

Looking at the stats, it looks like all the people that complain about Wilson not getting the easy yards seems to be mistaken. He converted an amazing 80% on very short downs. Wilson really struggled on 3rd downs 11yrd or more.

Can you post where you're pulling these stats from?

Not sure if the attachment works, but Russ has never been a 3rd down chain mover on his arm. This list has him 30th Passing on 3rd and 4th downs.