3-14, predicted by CBS sports.

TwistedHusky

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Zero chance Pete doesn't win at least 5.

His system against under .500 teams works. He could win those games with you at QB. It wouldn't matter.

3 games is ridiculous.

Winning more than 8 is unlikely and 7 might even be tough. But he is absolutely winning at least 5.
 
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scutterhawk

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Click bait. :)
Nah, not even I am dumb enough to click on that.





must resist........muuusst resist
In all seriousness though, I'm calling it now, We Are Winning 7 games MINIMUM.
 

flv2

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Actual line as per Pinnacle dot com on June 15 2022:

Over 5.5 -140
Under 5.5 +118
 

keasley45

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Psshh.

I tend to see it this way:


Honestly don't understand a 3 win prediction, nor the belief that Pete can only win against sub-par teams.

This team had its crap year last year. We hit bottom in 2021. Our offense, with Russ before and after his injury was at worst, atrocious (the last 4 games excluded). At best, flashy, but ineffective.

Our defense under Norton was tripping over itself every week. Similarly to the offense, when the strategy shifted over the last few games, they played much faster and still managed to finish in the top half of the league in points scored and 3rd down defense.

And the two sides of the ball were about as ineffective in terms of complimentary play as they could be.

And we still won 7 games.

Our Qb, with all the stats and rating he posted before he bent his finger out of joint, wasn't a difference maker, in part because all the offense did was hit big plays. No sustained running, no balance. No ball control. We will at minimum have that this year. And as a result, last year. we were near last in avg drive duration and 3rd downs. In 2019, Lock in his 5 starts was 6th in the league on 3rd down rating and thats factoring in anyone who tossed a pass, regardless of position. Russ, during his lead up to Let Russ Cook, was 17th. The following year when he WAS cooking, he was 18th.

The net improvement on offense and defense will at least nullify the step back at qb position given last year's performance.

Our floor this year, playing a much easier schedule, with a stronger D, considerably above avg talent on offense, and an invigorated staff and refocused approach will have 7 wins as its floor.

We're going to surprise a lot of people, apparently Hawks fan as well.
 
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toffee

toffee

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To me, this season will be all about the second half of the season. If we could go 50% on those 8 games, we will net 4W. Then the first 9 games, say we 'luck' into 2 wins. That is 6 wins. I think the defense and OL needs time to learn and to gel, which will take place in the first 9 games.

6 wins if Geno played at last year's level, 7 or 8 if Geno or Lock play above that.
 

rcaido

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What kind of kool-aid you guys drinking. If Geno is our starter, our ceiling is 5 games and that's being generous.

Pete style of play is to keep games close as much as possible even if they are a terrible team. Limit turnovers and run the ball. Then have Wilson win it at the 4th quarter. I watch Geno play and he does not have that magic or even a little bit. Wilson has been pretty much the best at it since he arrived. He has the best stats in 4th quarter in NFL history by large margin.

Unless somehow we start dominating teams or play the Jaguars every game, no way can you people be this optimistic.
 
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toffee

toffee

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What kind of kool-aid you guys drinking. If Geno is our starter, our ceiling is 5 games and that's being generous.

Pete style of play is to keep games close as much as possible even if they are a terrible team. Limit turnovers and run the ball. Then have Wilson win it at the 4th quarter. I watch Geno play and he does not have that magic or even a little bit. Wilson has been pretty much the best at it since he arrived. He has the best stats in 4th quarter in NFL history by large margin.

Unless somehow we start dominating teams or play the Jaguars every game, no way can you people be this optimistic.
Not the Trojans,
 

JayhawkMike

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I want to win the precise number of games it takes in order for PC to retire/get fired after this year. That would be the best long term for this team. To think that after next year we will have won THREE TOTAL playoff games in EIGHT YEARS. That is failure.

That said every game I’ll be rooting for us.
 

keasley45

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What kind of kool-aid you guys drinking. If Geno is our starter, our ceiling is 5 games and that's being generous.

Pete style of play is to keep games close as much as possible even if they are a terrible team. Limit turnovers and run the ball. Then have Wilson win it at the 4th quarter. I watch Geno play and he does not have that magic or even a little bit. Wilson has been pretty much the best at it since he arrived. He has the best stats in 4th quarter in NFL history by large margin.

Unless somehow we start dominating teams or play the Jaguars every game, no way can you people be this optimistic.
So, objectively, Geno Smith as a starter, mostly on abysmal NY Jets teams is 13- 21. That's 34 games or two seasons worth of play, mostly from when he was new to the league. Break that down to two 17 game seasons and he's 6.5 wins vs 10.5 losses or 7 and 10 / 6 and 11 depending on how you want to split it. So with lesser talent, in a wayward franchise with a no-name offense and defense, he's perfromed at a level equal to what our record was last year.

Objectively, it would stand to reason that now, with more experience, the expectation that he's got a chance to start, a year of knowledge of the system under his belt, and a stable full of talent around him, that he just MIGHT be able to do better than 6 wins this year, playing a soft schedule.

Can we win 11 games? probably not. But just looking at his record to date, 6 or 7 wins as a floor is not 'drinking the kool-aid'. Its a reasonable prediction based on his performance to date.

And his stats last year

68% completion
5TD's, 1 INT when Lockette tripped and fell
68% completion on 3rd down

Theres no way to classify those numbers as bad or even average. Nor is there anything there that would indicate that he would actually make us WORSE than his extrapolated average W/L given the talent we're giving him.

BTW, Russ completed 60% on 3rd down during his 'Let Russ Cook' year in 2020, and just 51% last year.

Geno, if he starts (same goes for Lock) needs to be play within the offense and make a play when called upon. Neither of them need to turn every down into a potential TD bomb.
 

sdog1981

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So, I don't bet much. What are the numbers for (-140, +118)? I know what the 5.5 is for...
It's based on a 100-dollar bet. So +118 means you would get your 100 back +118 dollars. -140 means you would get your 100 back +40, so you are betting 100 bucks to win 40.

Edit: I was wrong on the second part @onanygivensunday put it the correct way. You would need to bet 140 dollars to win 100.
 
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rcaido

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So, objectively, Geno Smith as a starter, mostly on abysmal NY Jets teams is 13- 21. That's 34 games or two seasons worth of play, mostly from when he was new to the league. Break that down to two 17 game seasons and he's 6.5 wins vs 10.5 losses or 7 and 10 / 6 and 11 depending on how you want to split it. So with lesser talent, in a wayward franchise with a no-name offense and defense, he's perfromed at a level equal to what our record was last year.

Objectively, it would stand to reason that now, with more experience, the expectation that he's got a chance to start, a year of knowledge of the system under his belt, and a stable full of talent around him, that he just MIGHT be able to do better than 6 wins this year, playing a soft schedule.

Can we win 11 games? probably not. But just looking at his record to date, 6 or 7 wins as a floor is not 'drinking the kool-aid'. Its a reasonable prediction based on his performance to date.

And his stats last year

68% completion
5TD's, 1 INT when Lockette tripped and fell
68% completion on 3rd down

Theres no way to classify those numbers as bad or even average. Nor is there anything there that would indicate that he would actually make us WORSE than his extrapolated average W/L given the talent we're giving him.

BTW, Russ completed 60% on 3rd down during his 'Let Russ Cook' year in 2020, and just 51% last year.

Geno, if he starts (same goes for Lock) needs to be play within the offense and make a play when called upon. Neither of them need to turn every down into a potential TD bomb.
He had a career day against the worst team in football to inflate 3 1/4 games he played. Also a defender fell down for the 84yrd DK TD against the Saints.

As for Geno 68% 3rd down completion seems great but only 8 were first downs. He only had 31% conversion rate on 3rd downs. The lowest third down conversion rate was 34.7% which were the Bears. So he would have been the worse in football. Seahawks ended up ranking 23rd by the end of the year. The last 5 games, the Seahawks were ranked 3rd best in Conversion on 3rd down w/ 48% conversion. That would have been the 2nd best in the NFL.

Top 3
Chiefs 53%
Bills 47%
Charger 45%
 

keasley45

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He had a career day against the worst team in football to inflate 3 1/4 games he played. Also a defender fell down for the 84yrd DK TD against the Saints.

As for Geno 68% 3rd down completion seems great but only 8 were first downs. He only had 31% conversion rate on 3rd downs. The lowest third down conversion rate was 34.7% which were the Bears. So he would have been the worse in football. Seahawks ended up ranking 23rd by the end of the year. The last 5 games, the Seahawks were ranked 3rd best in Conversion on 3rd down w/ 48% conversion. That would have been the 2nd best in the NFL.

Top 3
Chiefs 53%
Bills 47%
Charger 45%

It's funny, there are never any qualifications for Wilson stacking his 'cooking' stats in 2020 against teams like the vikings who were last in 2020 for points allowed, the falcons, who finished the year last in pass defense or the cowboys, who were also ranked in the bottom 5th.

Are you pulling Genos stats for last year?
 

CalgaryHawkFan2005

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Vegas 'swings' aside - we're playing .500 ball this year -

.400 or .600 is a rounding error, and could be modified by a giant spaceship coming down during 2 key games and abducting the opposing team(s) at halftime.

We're .500 ball, said it since RW was 'traded'. ;)
 
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