Tight Ends and Geno's Time to Throw

[hgwellz12]

Our pass distribution from last night vs. the Niners:

Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf 9 targets, 3 catches, 32 yards, longest catch 11 yards.
Tyler Lockett 5 targets, 3 catches, 30 yards, longest catch 11 yards.
JSN, 3 targets, 2 catches, 41 yards, longest catch 34 yards
Jake Bobo 1 target, 1 catch, 6 yards.

Total WR's: 18 targets, 9 receptions, 109 yards, 0 TD's.

Running Backs

Zach Charbonnet, 4 targets, 4 catches, 11 yards, longest catch 7 yards.
DJ Dallas, 1 target, 1 catch, 5 yards.

Total RB's: 5 targets, 5 receptions, 17 yards, 0 TD's.

Tight Ends

Will Dissly 1 target, 1 catch, 21 yards.
Colby Parkinson 1 target, 1 catch, 9 yards.
Noah Fant 2 targets, 2 catches, 25 yards, longest catch 16 yards.

Total Tight Ends: 4 targets, 4 receptions, 55 yards, 0 TD's.

Without looking at anything else, it would appear that we're forcing our offense through our wide receivers, specifically DK Metcalf. Every single one of Geno's 9 incompletions, he was 18-27, were targeted for a WR.

And by watching the game, we took several low percentage deep shots into coverage to Metcalf down the left sideline. We hit on just one deep shot, the 34 yard pass to JSN, and that one required an incredible, one handed grab to complete.

The other thing is that our tight ends have virtually disappeared from our offense, seem to be used for nothing more than a safety valve when the WR's aren't open.

Is it Geno? Waldron? We have some very capable tight ends but we're not utilizing them.

Tyler would probably be lobbying for a trade if he wasn't so classy. I actually feel sorry for him.

 

[hoxrox]

Tyler would probably be lobbying for a trade if he wasn't so classy. I actually feel sorry for him.

Tyler is still playing through a hamstring injury. They have him on a limited pitch count.

More JSN and Bobo and the TEs.. Less forcing it to DK.

 

[olyfan63]

Thinking about this... is it Geno, or Shane... leads to 2 questions:
1) WWBD?
2) WWPD?

The answer is roughly the same for both. What Would Brady Do, and What Would Peyton Do. They would analyze the defense and the matchups and have a good idea of the best places to go with the ball pre-snap. Or they would audible to a different play with better matchups. They would recognize an all-out blitz and not plan to hold the ball for 4.5 seconds for DK to get open deep. They would progress to a crosser or a TE to move the chains instead of locking onto a primary read.

Off-field, they would also challenge their OC to improve the concepts and plays to give them better options.

OK, so Geno is not Tom and he's not Peyton. He doesn't show signs of growth leading to even close to that stratosphere. On the other hand, Waldron just looks confused, and appears to be thinking "let's just try schitt until something works." He doesn't seem to make adjustments in any reasonable timeframe.

So then, the answer, is it Geno, or is it Shane, is...
YES.

 

[GemCity]

DDon’t Kknow who your talking about

This…was awesome

 

[Xxx]

This…was awesome

Yeah that was one a my favorites

 

[CalgaryFan05]

Strangely they aren’t using JSN rightly either. With our line issues he should lead our team in targets in the short areas of the field where he excels. Baffled that he isn’t highlighted more in the offense.

EXACTLY.

JSN should be utilized heavily in the crossing and underneath game. For that matter, IMO, so should Lockett.

I asked in another thread going into the Ravens game a few weeks ago: "I want a nice bang bang type of playcalling lots of short stuff, lots of TE targets and close and quick". Waldron obviously didn't listen.

We KNOW that Geno sucks under pressure. I'm not a football god, and hell even I can see that. So stop moonballing to DK - and bang bang bang.

And there's his kryptonite like allergy to crossing the LOS with his legs - but that's another matter. I've seen at LEAST 10 plays this season where he should have pulled it down and ran with it - and purposely didn't.

 

[Xxx]

EXACTLY.

JSN should be utilized heavily in the crossing and underneath game. For that matter, IMO, so should Lockett.

I asked in another thread going into the Ravens game a few weeks ago: "I want a nice bang bang type of playcalling lots of short stuff, lots of TE targets and close and quick". Waldron obviously didn't listen.

We KNOW that Geno sucks under pressure. I'm not a football god, and hell even I can see that. So stop moonballing to DK - and bang bang bang.

And there's his kryptonite like allergy to crossing the LOS with his legs - but that's another matter. I've seen at LEAST 10 plays this season where he should have pulled it down and ran with it - and purposely didn't.

Every one of our receivers and tight ends has the talent to be used underneath and deep. They can even win underneath and over the top in different ways each. We should be so unpredictable… we should be able to line up in jumbo and still pass and we should be able to line up in spread and still run. Our offense is lost

 

[CalgaryFan05]

Every one of our receivers and tight ends has the talent to be used underneath and deep. They can even win underneath and over the top in different ways each. We should be so unpredictable… we should be able to line up in jumbo and still pass and we should be able to line up in spread and still run. Our offense is lost

I dunno. I don't think DK is fast twitch enough to get much separation on bang bang crossing routes. Lockett is. JSN is - and JSN loses separation on the longer routes - in my casual observances.

So, I think DK is overtly bad at the short game, but better in beating people running a 40. Lockett is good at both. and JSN is the opposite of DK. I could be wrong.

But I would agree with your last statement. We SHOULD be running Walron's game1 to game8 offence of last year. If Pete wasn't a control freak moron. And that's the 3 ass rapings in 18 days talking.

 

[Xxx]

I dunno. I don't think DK is fast twitch enough to get much separation on bang bang crossing routes. Lockett is. JSN is - and JSN loses separation on the longer routes - in my casual observances.

So, I think DK is overtly bad at the short game, but better in beating people running a 40. Lockett is good at both. and JSN is the opposite of DK. I could be wrong.

But I would agree with your last statement. We SHOULD be running Walron's game1 to game8 offence of last year. If Pete wasn't a control freak moron. And that's the 3 ass rapings in 18 days talking.

Dk caught the slant they threw him yesterday, but they only tried it once. All he needs to do is take two steps and look for the ball.

 

[Xxx]

They should throw slants to dk every time the linebackers are up in the one and two gaps. But it doesn’t have to be dk. All of them could be the guy that’s gonna slant to the middle. That’s the blitz beater. Recognize where the blitz is coming from and attack the void. That’s basic and other teams do it to us constantly. We think go deep…

 

[scutterhawk]

With nothing else better to do, I've been doing some homework. A good friend of mine, of whom knows a helluva lot more about football than I do, has been lamenting our seemingly ignorance of our tight ends in our passing game this season. I've also noticed that Geno seems more hesitant than last year, that he's not throwing when he hits his back foot as he has in the past. Are both observations true, and if so, is there a relationship?

It turns out that Geno's increased hesitance is no illusion. Through 8 games this season, his time to throw is 2.95 seconds, or 8th slowest amongst quarterbacks. Last year, he averaged 2.91 seconds, or 19th slowest. To massage those numbers a little further, Tua gets the ball out the fastest at 2.38 seconds, Deshaun Watson the slowest at 3.06.

If you use the difference between the fastest and slowest QB TT times as the denominator, or .68, and use the difference in Smith's TT from 2022 to 2023, or .14, as the numerator, Geno is approximately 20% slower in his delivery this season than he was last year. That's significant.

NGS | NFL Next Gen Stats

NFL’s Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics.

nextgenstats.nfl.com

So how about our tight ends? Their absence from our passing game is real. Last season, we targeted our tight ends on 147 passes out of 553 attempts, or 26.6% of all passing attempts. This season through 8 games, we've targeted tight ends 42 times on 244 passing attempts, or just 17.2% of the time. That, too, is a significant difference.

Seattle Seahawks 2022 NFL Regular Season Players Stats - ESPN

Full player stats for the 2022 Regular Season Seattle Seahawks on ESPN. Includes team leaders in passing, rushing, tackles and interceptions.

www.espn.com

I haven't watched to see if we're holding our tight ends in to block more often this season than we have in the past, but could it be that our OL problems are such that we're having to call on our tight ends to pass block, chip, play more inline, or whatever, which has manifested itself in Geno having fewer options and created more hesitancy?

Or is there some other explanation for these apparent variances? Have we intentionally changed our scheme to feature the wide receivers more? Or is Geno starting to do the RW3 thing and make his first look for the home run ball and use the tight ends only as a check down when the WR's aren't open?

Like I said, I don't have the answers, but it's clear that something has changed. Anyone else want to take a shot at it?

Play-calls by Waldron to the use of TE's this season seem to have been sparsely drawn up.
All I see is the Waldron Game Plans calling for MORE & MORE Time Expanded Deep Throw Plays.
(Small wonder they are MISERABLY FAILING on 3rd downs eh?)
This is NOT just a One Person Screwup.

 

[Xxx]

Play-calls by Waldron to the use of TE's this season seem to have been sparsely drawn up.
All I see is the Waldron Game Plans calling for MORE & MORE Time Expanded Deep Throw Plays.
(Small wonder they are MISERABLY FAILING on 3rd downs eh?)
This is NOT just a One Person Screwup.

An explanation I really liked on here is last year there was no game tape on geno, now there is

 

[morgulon1]

With nothing else better to do, I've been doing some homework. A good friend of mine, of whom knows a helluva lot more about football than I do, has been lamenting our seemingly ignorance of our tight ends in our passing game this season. I've also noticed that Geno seems more hesitant than last year, that he's not throwing when he hits his back foot as he has in the past. Are both observations true, and if so, is there a relationship?

It turns out that Geno's increased hesitance is no illusion. Through 8 games this season, his time to throw is 2.95 seconds, or 8th slowest amongst quarterbacks. Last year, he averaged 2.91 seconds, or 19th slowest. To massage those numbers a little further, Tua gets the ball out the fastest at 2.38 seconds, Deshaun Watson the slowest at 3.06.

If you use the difference between the fastest and slowest QB TT times as the denominator, or .68, and use the difference in Smith's TT from 2022 to 2023, or .14, as the numerator, Geno is approximately 20% slower in his delivery this season than he was last year. That's significant.

NGS | NFL Next Gen Stats

NFL’s Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics.

nextgenstats.nfl.com

So how about our tight ends? Their absence from our passing game is real. Last season, we targeted our tight ends on 147 passes out of 553 attempts, or 26.6% of all passing attempts. This season through 8 games, we've targeted tight ends 42 times on 244 passing attempts, or just 17.2% of the time. That, too, is a significant difference.

Seattle Seahawks 2022 NFL Regular Season Players Stats - ESPN

Full player stats for the 2022 Regular Season Seattle Seahawks on ESPN. Includes team leaders in passing, rushing, tackles and interceptions.

www.espn.com

I haven't watched to see if we're holding our tight ends in to block more often this season than we have in the past, but could it be that our OL problems are such that we're having to call on our tight ends to pass block, chip, play more inline, or whatever, which has manifested itself in Geno having fewer options and created more hesitancy?

Or is there some other explanation for these apparent variances? Have we intentionally changed our scheme to feature the wide receivers more? Or is Geno starting to do the RW3 thing and make his first look for the home run ball and use the tight ends only as a check down when the WR's aren't open?

Like I said, I don't have the answers, but it's clear that something has changed. Anyone else want to take a shot at it?

I was going to start a new thread but hoped this would be seen on this one.
I stole this from a dude on Fieldgulls named "seventies hawks fan" who stole it from someone else. Much thanks!!


"This is an insightfully written article with which I take one exception: Geno Smith's contract told you who the management believes they really are the entire time.

And then the games are called accordingly.

Geno is pretty much a first read with above average accuracy throwing to that target if said first read receiver is open. And if his first option receiver is not open the probability of an incompletion, throw away, or sack are simply very high.

He then has a very difficult time progressing outside of that, especially on high leverage passing downs.

What that means for how the offensive game plan is generally called (and this is no defense of Pete Carroll or Shane Waldron):

• Plays with multiple receiver options are generally pointless (and therefore largely nonexistent) unless it is two receivers in same zone or area of the field and Geno can easily progress from one to the next.
• Geno cannot reliably progress to checkdown options.
• The play design is pretty much scheme the first receiving target open against an inferior defender or softness in the coverage . . . or bust.
• Add to this that we typically only throw to the middle of the field and slants to DK when it's a drive to win the game. Otherwise the risk of interceptions are too high, especially when throwing to DK, who has route running, high point, hands placement, and getting his head around problems. If the game is still close and we are behind then the risk is simply too great, especially when factoring that Geno has a few throws that are just off every game.
• We are therefore throwing to the sidelines and at the LOS on far too many plays.
• Tight Ends are not effective for this type of offense; as TE's do their work in the areas of the field we don't throw to very often.
• This means an easier field to defend overall as there are now miles of tape on Geno's and offenses tendencies.
• And it's also why after the first successful offensive series with Waldron scripting out the above, the opposing DC then quickly figures out what adjustments will need to be made.
• This means an even easier field to defend on third down and in the red zone as the areas to defend shrink and if the defense can guess the first read receiver then the odds of the play being successfully go waaaaaayyyyyyy (the ****) down.
• Add to this we don't really have the O Line personnel to establish reliability in the running game.

• There is a cascade of problems that flow from all of the above factors

 

[Xxx]

I was going to start a new thread but hoped this would be seen on this one.
I stole this from a dude on Fieldgulls named "seventies hawks fan" who stole it from someone else. Much thanks!!


"This is an insightfully written article with which I take one exception: Geno Smith's contract told you who the management believes they really are the entire time.

And then the games are called accordingly.

Geno is pretty much a first read with above average accuracy throwing to that target if said first read receiver is open. And if his first option receiver is not open the probability of an incompletion, throw away, or sack are simply very high.

He then has a very difficult time progressing outside of that, especially on high leverage passing downs.

What that means for how the offensive game plan is generally called (and this is no defense of Pete Carroll or Shane Waldron):

• Plays with multiple receiver options are generally pointless (and therefore largely nonexistent) unless it is two receivers in same zone or area of the field and Geno can easily progress from one to the next.
• Geno cannot reliably progress to checkdown options.
• The play design is pretty much scheme the first receiving target open against an inferior defender or softness in the coverage . . . or bust.
• Add to this that we typically only throw to the middle of the field and slants to DK when it's a drive to win the game. Otherwise the risk of interceptions are too high, especially when throwing to DK, who has route running, high point, hands placement, and getting his head around problems. If the game is still close and we are behind then the risk is simply too great, especially when factoring that Geno has a few throws that are just off every game.
• We are therefore throwing to the sidelines and at the LOS on far too many plays.
• Tight Ends are not effective for this type of offense; as TE's do their work in the areas of the field we don't throw to very often.
• This means an easier field to defend overall as there are now miles of tape on Geno's and offenses tendencies.
• And it's also why after the first successful offensive series with Waldron scripting out the above, the opposing DC then quickly figures out what adjustments will need to be made.
• This means an even easier field to defend on third down and in the red zone as the areas to defend shrink and if the defense can guess the first read receiver then the odds of the play being successfully go waaaaaayyyyyyy (the ****) down.
• Add to this we don't really have the O Line personnel to establish reliability in the running game.

• There is a cascade of problems that flow from all of the above factors

Poor geno I wonder how his letter is coming

 

[morgulon1]

Poor geno I wonder how his letter is coming

I was one that predicted Geno would take several steps forward this season.
This shows I don't know anything about football.

 

[RiverDog]

I was going to start a new thread but hoped this would be seen on this one.
I stole this from a dude on Fieldgulls named "seventies hawks fan" who stole it from someone else. Much thanks!!


"This is an insightfully written article with which I take one exception: Geno Smith's contract told you who the management believes they really are the entire time.

And then the games are called accordingly.

Geno is pretty much a first read with above average accuracy throwing to that target if said first read receiver is open. And if his first option receiver is not open the probability of an incompletion, throw away, or sack are simply very high.

He then has a very difficult time progressing outside of that, especially on high leverage passing downs.

What that means for how the offensive game plan is generally called (and this is no defense of Pete Carroll or Shane Waldron):

• Plays with multiple receiver options are generally pointless (and therefore largely nonexistent) unless it is two receivers in same zone or area of the field and Geno can easily progress from one to the next.
• Geno cannot reliably progress to checkdown options.
• The play design is pretty much scheme the first receiving target open against an inferior defender or softness in the coverage . . . or bust.
• Add to this that we typically only throw to the middle of the field and slants to DK when it's a drive to win the game. Otherwise the risk of interceptions are too high, especially when throwing to DK, who has route running, high point, hands placement, and getting his head around problems. If the game is still close and we are behind then the risk is simply too great, especially when factoring that Geno has a few throws that are just off every game.
• We are therefore throwing to the sidelines and at the LOS on far too many plays.
• Tight Ends are not effective for this type of offense; as TE's do their work in the areas of the field we don't throw to very often.
• This means an easier field to defend overall as there are now miles of tape on Geno's and offenses tendencies.
• And it's also why after the first successful offensive series with Waldron scripting out the above, the opposing DC then quickly figures out what adjustments will need to be made.
• This means an even easier field to defend on third down and in the red zone as the areas to defend shrink and if the defense can guess the first read receiver then the odds of the play being successfully go waaaaaayyyyyyy (the ****) down.
• Add to this we don't really have the O Line personnel to establish reliability in the running game.
• There is a cascade of problems that flow from all of the above factors

That's a really good analysis and could explain a lot.

We're ranked 30th in 3rd down efficiency, ahead of only the Jets and Giants. As was mentioned, defenses tend to anticipate a short throw and will tighten their coverages and take away that first option so as to protect the line to gain while they will often times blitz so the QB doesn't have time for receivers to beat that tight coverage.

 

[morgulon1]

That's a really good analysis and could explain a lot.

We're ranked 30th in 3rd down efficiency, ahead of only the Jets and Giants. As was mentioned, defenses tend to anticipate a short throw and will tighten their coverages and take away that first option so as to protect the line to gain while they will often times blitz so the QB doesn't have time for receivers to beat that tight coverage.

It makes me wonder if only for a second if a better QB would fix things. Is the play calling handicapped because Of Geno Smith or Pete Carroll?

If the offense could improve just a little bit, sustained some drives and turned a couple of field goals into touchdowns .
This defense isn't horrible , they're just getting shit on by this horrible offense.

IMHO

 

[LeveeBreak]

It makes me wonder if only for a second if a better QB would fix things. Is the play calling handicapped because Of Geno Smith or Pete Carroll?

If the offense could improve just a little bit, sustained some drives and turned a couple of field goals into touchdowns .
This defense isn't horrible , they're just getting shit on by this horrible offense.

IMHO

Good question. I would say though that this D is absolutely horrible against good teams and good OC's.

 

[morgulon1]

Good question. I would say though that this D is absolutely horrible against good teams and good OC's.

I don't disagree. However in my state of mind (momentarily) I think the defense has shown promise at times. I think Wagner is starting to slow a little but the bigger issue no one is talking about is the loss of Nwousu. That changed everything IMHO.

If the offense Could make a few more first downs , convert some scores it could change these games . I know .

If my aunt had a dick , she'd be my uncle.

 

[scutterhawk]

I was wondering why the TE's have been absent the last several games. Seems like a wrinkle they should still be able to use effectively.. I dunno.

I see them having to use the TE's to help the banged up O-Line, that's why Pete keeps repeating the same thing over & over "We need to do more to help Geno", but in doing so we lose some effective plays by the TE's that were helping to convert a lot of the 3rd downs that we've been so anemic at doing as of late.
I think it's a vicious circle, the OVERUSE of TE's for blocking = Less targets for Geno= More indecisive hesitancy and in turn gives defenses more time to cover the Receivers better.
To me, it's getting to look a lot like it did when Russ was here.
There's a good reason that PC & JS Drafted Cross first pick last year @ #9 and Lucas in round 2, the first year after Wilson was traded to the Donko's, and the injuries to those two KEY O-Line players in the first game this year absolutely derailed the promising season.