Some surprising numbers from the week 6 Carolina game

carolinablue

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Sounds like interesting stuff for sure. While I've heard of that metric I've never really looked at it or tried to analyze matchups with it. I've always just watched games and formed opinions on what I see myself. Not saying that's superior or anything because obviously I don't grade each play individually.

So who is the best team left in the playoffs according to DVOA? And where does Carolina rank on that list overall?
 
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kearly

kearly

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carolinablue":1s8x7ld6 said:
3 plays 5 yards punt
6 plays 10 yards punt
5 plays 21 yards FG (started in FG range after interception)
12 plays 90 yards TD
4 plays 2 yards punt
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 63 yards TD
4 plays 1 yard FG (after interception in FG range)
3 plays 2 yards punt
8 plays 59 yards FG
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 12 yards punt
4 plays 28 yards EOG

That was the drive chart for Seattle for the game. Kind of similar to how you're describing Carolina's offense. I think all this tells us is that both teams played pretty well defensively.

Well, it is similar, except Seattle only had one 80 yard drive. Carolina had four. If you do a distribution graph of these numbers and compare it to Carolina, the difference jumps off the page.

That said, it is a fair point someone made about both Seattle and Carolina having feast or famine type offenses (back in week 6, anyway). It's just that the feast or famine nature of Carolina in this game was off the charts.
 

Polaris

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carolinablue":3telia4t said:
Sounds like interesting stuff for sure. While I've heard of that metric I've never really looked at it or tried to analyze matchups with it. I've always just watched games and formed opinions on what I see myself. Not saying that's superior or anything because obviously I don't grade each play individually.

So who is the best team left in the playoffs according to DVOA? And where does Carolina rank on that list overall?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-r ... oa-ratings

Actually Carolina does pretty well and has moved up in the last part of the season.

Right now Seattle is rated #1, Kansas City is rated #2, Arizona is rated #4 (Cincy was three but they're out due to terminal stupidity by a couple of their players), Carolina is rated #5, New England is rated #6, Pittsburgh is rated #7 [see commentary about Cincy and being brain dead...otherwise the better team would have advanced], Denver is rated #8 [but Denver is more likely to win because Denver is at home and Big Ben is questionable among other important players], and finally Green Bay is rated #9.
 

Scottemojo

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8 of the top 9 DVOA teams are still in the playoffs.

Carolina fans, all fans, notice that and admit it says something. It does not mean Seattle wins, but criminy, 8 of the top 9!

As football stats go, it is extremely accurate, even if it's originator says it is not predictive.
 

hawkfan68

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carolinablue":1culsxj5 said:
Polaris":1culsxj5 said:
carolinablue":1culsxj5 said:
3 plays 5 yards punt
6 plays 10 yards punt
5 plays 21 yards FG (started in FG range after interception)
12 plays 90 yards TD
4 plays 2 yards punt
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 63 yards TD
4 plays 1 yard FG (after interception in FG range)
3 plays 2 yards punt
8 plays 59 yards FG
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 12 yards punt
4 plays 28 yards EOG

That was the drive chart for Seattle for the game. Kind of similar to how you're describing Carolina's offense. I think all this tells us is that both teams played pretty well defensively.

Which do you think has improved more since then, Carolina's offense or Seattle's? Enough said.
I'd say it's a wash. If you remember correctly Carolina wasn't the league's highest scoring team then, we are now.

Hmmmm....you do realize that the Panthers are the league's highest scoring offense because Arizona dropped to 2nd the final week of the season. Do you realize why they dropped....the Seahawk defense held them to 6 points. Arizona also played a tougher SOS than the Panthers yet was the scoring leader until week 17. Just some facts for you.
 

pmedic920

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Kip, as always, well written thoughts and an interesting way to look back at that match up.
Thanks for the effort.



CarolinaBlue, welcome to .net and thanks for being respectful.

GoHawks.
 

MD5eahawks

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Not to be a party pooper but one aspect left out of the OP was the 4th qtr by Cam.
12 of 15 for 162 yds
1 TD
133.3 rating

Was it due to a change in the defense play or scheme? I couldn't tell you. I know this much, it is the crux of hope bestowed upon Panther fans for this weekend's game.
 

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HawkFan72":3k49motb said:
Carolina won in Week 6 because the Seahawks Offense couldn't get a 1st down in the 4th quarter. If Seattle gets one or two first downs in the 4th, Carolina doesn't have enough time for their comeback. It's as simple as that.

This was also pretty much the case last week against the Vikings. Twice, late in the 4th quarter, we should have put together even a halfway-sustained drive and ended the game. We couldn't. Twice.

It was also the case against the Bengals, if I remember correctly, and against several other teams we lost to or almost lost to this year. It's a theme, and one that needs to be addressed. If the offense clicks in the 4th quarter, we win. If not, who knows?
 

WilsonMVP

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Sgt. Largent":1zcxkgva said:
We held Carolina in check for 85% of the game, then our defense decided to uncharacteristically crap the bed down the stretch............so I guess the question is can that happen again?

It's possible, and we saw it again last week where the D doesn't give up a damn thing all day, then all of a sudden give up big plays. THAT'S what worries me. Our D isn't the lockdown finishing opponents off cutthroat kick them while their down D it's been the past couple of years.

We've let teams hang around, and in Carolina with the home crowd I imagine not allowing their team to give up even if down by a couple scores, it could happen again.

Wasnt just the defense...After we took over 20-7 our offense had 3 drives where they ran 10 plays for 22 yards that only took up about 4 1/2 minutes. (Those drives were all 3 and out) The 4th drive was a FG drive and then the end of the game turnover on downs.

In total after we went up 20-7 with about 9 min left in the 3rd.... our offense only ran 22 plays on 5 drives, got 109 yards, only got a FG and only took off about 9 min of clock.
 

WilsonMVP

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MD5eahawks":q0uqvi41 said:
Not to be a party pooper but one aspect left out of the OP was the 4th qtr by Cam.
12 of 15 for 162 yds
1 TD
133.3 rating

Was it due to a change in the defense play or scheme? I couldn't tell you. I know this much, it is the crux of hope bestowed upon Panther fans for this weekend's game.

Which means for the first 3 quarters he was

8/21 for 107 yards
2INT
15.4 QB rating.
 

HawKnPeppa

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Polaris":2uftumt7 said:
carolinablue":2uftumt7 said:
3 plays 5 yards punt
6 plays 10 yards punt
5 plays 21 yards FG (started in FG range after interception)
12 plays 90 yards TD
4 plays 2 yards punt
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 63 yards TD
4 plays 1 yard FG (after interception in FG range)
3 plays 2 yards punt
8 plays 59 yards FG
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 12 yards punt
4 plays 28 yards EOG

That was the drive chart for Seattle for the game. Kind of similar to how you're describing Carolina's offense. I think all this tells us is that both teams played pretty well defensively.

Which do you think has improved more since then, Carolina's offense or Seattle's? Enough said.

I don't see bravado in any of this guy's posts. He's just bringing info to the table. Seems like it's helping the discussion to me.
 

seahawks08

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Tyler Lockett was never a deep threat in this game. We never extended the field as we do now with 3 WR Bunch formations. We have changed our formations to keep the pocket clean. It's hard to blitz when you have to cover different WRs. So there you have it. Can didn't have the Ted Jr threat either, it was predominantly an adjustment they made in half time to us Greg Olson in different spaces looking at something that they exploited. I am sure the Seahawks will look at the Atlanta game tape and see how they controlled the game and won too. All in all its a playoff game, I am sure both teams are experienced to come from behind, seattle has an edge in playoff wins, that's all I see is the difference if any.
 

Largent80

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^ Lockett was wide open for a TD if Russell could throw the ball last Sunday, also Baldwin also had an easy 6. RW's hands were obviously cold and it affected his deep throws, hell....even his short ones.
 

olyfan63

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Seahawk Sailor":1bom6vn3 said:
HawkFan72":1bom6vn3 said:
Carolina won in Week 6 because the Seahawks Offense couldn't get a 1st down in the 4th quarter. If Seattle gets one or two first downs in the 4th, Carolina doesn't have enough time for their comeback. It's as simple as that.

This was also pretty much the case last week against the Vikings. Twice, late in the 4th quarter, we should have put together even a halfway-sustained drive and ended the game. We couldn't. Twice.

It was also the case against the Bengals, if I remember correctly, and against several other teams we lost to or almost lost to this year. It's a theme, and one that needs to be addressed. If the offense clicks in the 4th quarter, we win. If not, who knows?

It's amusing how opposing team posters neutrally point out descriptive facts and statistics from past performances, and some of the Seahawk posters get all chippy and huffy and emotional at them, agenda-driven, as if "winning an argument on the Internet" meant something for the outcome of the game.

Yeah, we had a douchebag Cardinal poster (AZ_fan) recently, but most Carolina posters I've noticed recently, like carolinablue, seem to make a positive contribution to the discussions.

I know I sure like having the "enemy" perspective, learning info on their teams that is glossed over in the media, etc.

To me the reality of this game is that we are in for a dogfight--er, catfight. This year's Carolina is as good a team as we have faced in the playoffs. (Last year's Green Bay was pretty solid, mostly because they were the least-injured team in the league) Both teams have a legit shot to win. The outcome will largely depend on which coach and coordinators do the better job of exploiting the matchups that are there. The matchup it looks like Seattle can exploit is the Seahawks WR's against the Carolina secondary. However, that will depend on the matchup of the Seattle OL against the Carolina DL giving Russell Wilson at least the 2.5-3 seconds, picking up blitzers, etc., and on Bevell+Cable having a scheme and game plan that exploits the WR matchup edge, and doesn't get smoked on the OL-DL matchup. My hunch is that also depends on Pete giving Bevell the green light to go with an attacking, score-early-and-often game plan, rather than a conservative defensive slugfest approach.

On the Carolina side, they had (in their win) some advantages in their run game matchups (with Cam's running being the advantage that tipped the scale) against our D without Wagner and Kam, and with Cary Williams ( :pukeface: ) at corner. What I recall about the earlier game is that on their long drives, they wore down the Seattle defense with their power running game, including Cam's runs, and got some timely passing completions, especially to TE Greg Olson, who definitely was a matchup advantage for them. Will those matchup advantages be present this time? Will either side have key players injured that alter the matchups during the game? Will one side come up with a difference-making game plan they are able to execute?

I recall in SB48, most of us here knew that Seattle's passing offense had a huge matchup advantage over Denver's pass defense. As it turned out, that advantage was the key, and Lynch runs pretty well got stuffed most of the game. Our quick and speedy D was also Kryptonite for Denver's short passing game, with rubber-arm Manning mostly unable to threaten deep. In this game vs. Carolina, we *should* have a similar advantage with our passing game, +/- Carroll/Bevell unleashing Wilson, but (to me) the matchup of Carolina's run offense vs. our run defense is a toss-up, TBD. Cam's running and scrambling is the X factor that could keep drives alive. The Carolina passing game alone can't beat us, but opportunistic passing set up by effective running could cause a lot of problems. I don't see our running game setting playoff rushing records against Carolina's front 7; if we can run well enough to keep their D honest, that's about all we can ask. The wildcard will be our pass protection against Carolina's pass rush, protecting Wilson long enough to get throws off. If Wilson is doing his old "hold the ball, hold the ball" routine Sunday, it won't be pretty.
 

Boycie

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MD5eahawks":rvfhfdex said:
Not to be a party pooper but one aspect left out of the OP was the 4th qtr by Cam.
12 of 15 for 162 yds
1 TD
133.3 rating

Was it due to a change in the defense play or scheme? I couldn't tell you. I know this much, it is the crux of hope bestowed upon Panther fans for this weekend's game.

I'll tell you what happened. Its the same thing that happened in Cincy. They got a lead and played vanilla type D. They played conservative instead of playing the way they played the whole game
 

Vancanhawksfan

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I remember watching this game acutely.

After Seattle took the lead 10-7 it just never felt like Carolina threatened the game at all even when Carolina scored their second touchdown to make it 20-14. It just felt like Seattle had it in control.

In the 4th when Carolina scored on their two long drives Seattle simply could not make a defensive play. There were no big plays or deep balls (with the exception of Olsen's 26 yd TD pass), just one play after the other on 8 and 9 play drives for TDs. There was only one incompletion and only once - a 9 yard sack by Irvin in the last drive - did Seattle even look like it showed up. In the 19 plays during those two drives there was only one 3rd down (on the set where Irvin got that sack)...every other play was 1st or 2nd down.

I have never seen Seattle go back to back drives from the 20 yard line like that in my life. You could have had a pee wee team out there on defense and it wouldn't have made a difference. I could not fathom the Seahawks ever allowing two back to back drives like that again.
 

olyfan63

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Vancanhawksfan":2w6p08nx said:
I remember watching this game acutely.
I have never seen Seattle go back to back drives from the 20 yard line like that in my life. You could have had a pee wee team out there on defense and it wouldn't have made a difference. I could not fathom the Seahawks ever allowing two back to back drives like that again.

To me it seemed our D got worn down, exhausted. The type of thing our running game with Beastmode used to do to other teams. Our defense is built for speed, but can wear down and become less effective. I mean, look at the effort guys like Bennett and Avril give on every play! By the 7th-8th play of a drive, it's getting pretty tough to keep that up. In that game, in the crucial drives, Carolina was running for 3 yards here, 5 yards there, and just always getting positive yardage and "staying on schedule". Cam's abiity to consistently get 3rd-and-1's with his running was a huge key also.

I've also wondered how much of our 5 4th quarter losses was the learning curve of DC Kris Richard on how to manage games, to keep the D strong for the 4th quarter. It seemed like early in the season, he wasn't rotating DL guys enough (or maybe injuries were limiting the rotation) and our DL would wear down. I felt Dann Quinn was a master of keeping the D guys fresh and rotating DL guys. Quinn seemed to know how to give DL guys plays off/sub out here and there to keep guys fresher. Cincinnati also got our defense tired at the end of the game.

A factor in those 4th quarter losses was also the excessive number of 3 and outs by the Seahawk offense that didn't give the D guys any time to rest and recover between series.

All season, it just seems like our offense finds a way to suck when "protecting" a lead. We did it against Minnesota too. We're just not aggressive and play vanilla and then go 3 and out, leaving the door open.
 

MysterMatt

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Sgt. Largent":22gg8fef said:
We held Carolina in check for 85% of the game, then our defense decided to uncharacteristically crap the bed down the stretch............so I guess the question is can that happen again?

It's possible, and we saw it again last week where the D doesn't give up a damn thing all day, then all of a sudden give up big plays. THAT'S what worries me. Our D isn't the lockdown finishing opponents off cutthroat kick them while their down D it's been the past couple of years.

We've let teams hang around, and in Carolina with the home crowd I imagine not allowing their team to give up even if down by a couple scores, it could happen again.
Keep in mind our offense refused to get a first down for most of the 4th quarter, too, in many of our epic meltdowns this season. I THINK that is a less of an issue now, at least it was when our running game picked up and Russell was making good quick throws. We didn't do so hot on our last drive against the Vikings, but I think weather was a huge factor.

My point is that our O can play a huge role if it can sustain drives when we have the lead. Duh. We've all seen the difference a first down here and there can make late in the game.
 

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