Some surprising numbers from the week 6 Carolina game

[MontanaHawk05]

We held Carolina in check for 85% of the game, then our defense decided to uncharacteristically crap the bed down the stretch............so I guess the question is can that happen again?

It's possible, and we saw it again last week where the D doesn't give up a damn thing all day, then all of a sudden give up big plays. THAT'S what worries me. Our D isn't the lockdown finishing opponents off cutthroat kick them while their down D it's been the past couple of years.

We've let teams hang around, and in Carolina with the home crowd I imagine not allowing their team to give up even if down by a couple scores, it could happen again.

Keep in mind our offense refused to get a first down for most of the 4th quarter, too, in many of our epic meltdowns this season. I THINK that is a less of an issue now, at least it was when our running game picked up and Russell was making good quick throws. We didn't do so hot on our last drive against the Vikings, but I think weather was a huge factor.

My point is that our O can play a huge role if it can sustain drives when we have the lead. Duh. We've all seen the difference a first down here and there can make late in the game.

Agreed. A simple first down could have changed our record. Instead, Bevell throws deep on 3rd and 2 or tries to throw to a bad pass-catching fullback. His playbooks are much improved this year, but his decision-making on vital downs still worries me.

 

[Hawks46]

Hope Pete reads this excellent post.

Pete could get this from looking at the box score.

The question that is not discussed in the OP is what led to Carolina having four 80-yard TD drives? That is a quite-impressive feat against the best defense in the league. It's not a fact we can simply discount as an anomaly. We know about the defensive coverage confusion, but what else did they do with their run game that allowed them to sustain those four 80-yard drives? I would be interested to read a breakdown on that.

With overall stats like that, the only thing I can think of is that they got some explosive plays where they got yards in chunks on those drives. Poor yards per carry, poor third down conversion rate, poor QB rating all tells me that they weren't sustaining drives all that well, and were probably aided by chunk yardage plays.

I would assume that our run defense will be at least as good, if not better with Wagner back and all of our guys playing their natural positions. Clark is a better player than he was then. Hill is in, which gives us better interior pass rush. Our DL was banged up that first game, but now our rotation looks strong, so we should be able to sustain DL performance all game.

Our offense needs to help out. We need to sustain some drives. I'm guessing we'll get some explosive plays on offense because they are banged up on the back end and our passing game is light years better than it was.

On defense, it's Olson I'm worried about.

On offense, it's interior pressure I'm worried about.

I honestly think if we can limit both of those, most everything else will work itself out.

 

[aawolf]

Great discussion. I think that the initial analysis by kearly shows a trend by the Panthers that was present in most of their games this year--the capacity for the BIG PLAY mixed in with a lot of mediocre play. Same situation with the Seahawks. This is one way that both teams are remarkably similar. As far as "big plays" on offense, according to this site-- http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tics/2015/ --Seattle is #2 in the league and Carolina is #3 in the league. Big plays are defined as "rushing plays over 10 yards and passing plays over 25 yards". This is also why Cam's stats are a little low--because his most impressive attribute is not accuracy or QB rating, but his ability to generate offense in a few big moments and feasting in those moments.

It should also be noted that the Panther receivers are prone to significant drops in most games that I've seen, which makes Cam's season all the more impressive. In fact, according to the sporting statistic site I linked to earlier, the Panthers have the 8th highest drop percentage, while the Seahawks have the 31st. From what I've seen, a lot of the Panther drops are by receivers who are hit in the hands that would have resulted in monster gains or at least first downs. The drops come in bunches, just like the receptions--partially explaining the streaky mediocre drives and then the sustained drives that the OP mentioned. When the Panthers are rolling and catching the ball, they are hard to stop.

The Panthers are a dangerous team, I don't care how "weak" their schedule was this year. Cam can and will exploit any mistakes for big yardage. Because of this, I'm not going to freak out if the Panthers end up beating us. In fact, I see this game as a complete toss-up ever so slightly favoring the Panthers. The spread favoring the Panthers by 2.5 seems to me to be exactly right.