Some surprising numbers from the week 6 Carolina game

[carolinablue]

3 plays 5 yards punt
6 plays 10 yards punt
5 plays 21 yards FG (started in FG range after interception)
12 plays 90 yards TD
4 plays 2 yards punt
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 63 yards TD
4 plays 1 yard FG (after interception in FG range)
3 plays 2 yards punt
8 plays 59 yards FG
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 12 yards punt
4 plays 28 yards EOG

That was the drive chart for Seattle for the game. Kind of similar to how you're describing Carolina's offense. I think all this tells us is that both teams played pretty well defensively.

 

[rideaducati]

Hope Pete reads this excellent post.

Pete could get this from looking at the box score.

The question that is not discussed in the OP is what led to Carolina having four 80-yard TD drives? That is a quite-impressive feat against the best defense in the league. It's not a fact we can simply discount as an anomaly. We know about the defensive coverage confusion, but what else did they do with their run game that allowed them to sustain those four 80-yard drives? I would be interested to read a breakdown on that.

If I remember correctly, Cary Williams was a major factor in the 80 yard drives. Everyone in the secondary cheating to help him was probably another factor. The Seahawk secondary is now on the same page and they trust each other. The two or three score lead the Seahawks get this time will hold.

 

[Polaris]

3 plays 5 yards punt
6 plays 10 yards punt
5 plays 21 yards FG (started in FG range after interception)
12 plays 90 yards TD
4 plays 2 yards punt
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 63 yards TD
4 plays 1 yard FG (after interception in FG range)
3 plays 2 yards punt
8 plays 59 yards FG
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 12 yards punt
4 plays 28 yards EOG

That was the drive chart for Seattle for the game. Kind of similar to how you're describing Carolina's offense. I think all this tells us is that both teams played pretty well defensively.

Which do you think has improved more since then, Carolina's offense or Seattle's? Enough said.

 

[hawknation2015]

Hope Pete reads this excellent post.

Pete could get this from looking at the box score.

The question that is not discussed in the OP is what led to Carolina having four 80-yard TD drives? That is a quite-impressive feat against the best defense in the league. It's not a fact we can simply discount as an anomaly. We know about the defensive coverage confusion, but what else did they do with their run game that allowed them to sustain those four 80-yard drives? I would be interested to read a breakdown on that.

If I remember correctly, Cary Williams was a major factor in the 80 yard drives. Everyone in the secondary cheating to help him was probably another factor. The Seahawk secondary is now on the same page and they trust each other. The two or three score lead the Seahawks get this time will hold.

I'm concerned about DeShawn Shead. He plays more with instinct than technique and was beaten several times in space, counting on other players to clean up his mistakes. Cam does a good job finding and exploiting those kind of mistakes.

 

[rideaducati]

3 plays 5 yards punt
6 plays 10 yards punt
5 plays 21 yards FG (started in FG range after interception)
12 plays 90 yards TD
4 plays 2 yards punt
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 63 yards TD
4 plays 1 yard FG (after interception in FG range)
3 plays 2 yards punt
8 plays 59 yards FG
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 12 yards punt
4 plays 28 yards EOG

That was the drive chart for Seattle for the game. Kind of similar to how you're describing Carolina's offense. I think all this tells us is that both teams played pretty well defensively.

Seattle's offense hadn't found their groove yet. They'll be better this time.

 

[carolinablue]

3 plays 5 yards punt
6 plays 10 yards punt
5 plays 21 yards FG (started in FG range after interception)
12 plays 90 yards TD
4 plays 2 yards punt
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 63 yards TD
4 plays 1 yard FG (after interception in FG range)
3 plays 2 yards punt
8 plays 59 yards FG
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 12 yards punt
4 plays 28 yards EOG

That was the drive chart for Seattle for the game. Kind of similar to how you're describing Carolina's offense. I think all this tells us is that both teams played pretty well defensively.

Which do you think has improved more since then, Carolina's offense or Seattle's? Enough said.

I'd say it's a wash. If you remember correctly Carolina wasn't the league's highest scoring team then, we are now.

 

[Laloosh]

15.5 passer rating through first three quarters, dude.

 

[carolinablue]

15.5 passer rating through first three quarters, dude.

Yeah I already acknowledged that and pointed it out in another thread. If you think about it in those terms though doesn't it make it more amazing what he was able to do in the 4th quarter?

 

[Laloosh]

15.5 passer rating through first three quarters, dude.

Yeah I already acknowledged that and pointed it out in another thread. If you think about it in those terms though doesn't it make it more amazing what he was able to do in the 4th quarter?

He was nails in the 4th quarter. It's just a nice reminder (should be for Seattle fans as well) of what can happen to star quarterbacks against good defenses.

 

[hawk45]

Seattle's offense isn't the only unit that has improved.

Hill, Clark, Wagner, Lane, Kam.

 

[carolinablue]

15.5 passer rating through first three quarters, dude.

Yeah I already acknowledged that and pointed it out in another thread. If you think about it in those terms though doesn't it make it more amazing what he was able to do in the 4th quarter?

He was nails in the 4th quarter. It's just a nice reminder (should be for Seattle fans as well) of what can happen to star quarterbacks against good defenses.

Yep pretty much. Both teams have good to great defenses. Both teams have good offenses. One thing is for sure (never mind idiot fans from either team) this will be a great game and should be close throughout. May very well come down to whoever has the ball last.

 

[Polaris]

3 plays 5 yards punt
6 plays 10 yards punt
5 plays 21 yards FG (started in FG range after interception)
12 plays 90 yards TD
4 plays 2 yards punt
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 63 yards TD
4 plays 1 yard FG (after interception in FG range)
3 plays 2 yards punt
8 plays 59 yards FG
3 plays 8 yards punt
4 plays 12 yards punt
4 plays 28 yards EOG

That was the drive chart for Seattle for the game. Kind of similar to how you're describing Carolina's offense. I think all this tells us is that both teams played pretty well defensively.

Which do you think has improved more since then, Carolina's offense or Seattle's? Enough said.

I'd say it's a wash. If you remember correctly Carolina wasn't the league's highest scoring team then, we are now.

DVOA says differently...much differently.

 

[HawkFan72]

Carolina won in Week 6 because the Seahawks Offense couldn't get a 1st down in the 4th quarter. If Seattle gets one or two first downs in the 4th, Carolina doesn't have enough time for their comeback. It's as simple as that.

 

[carolinablue]

DVOA says differently...much differently.

While stats are nice to look and they do tell you some things I've never been one to rely solely on any metrics by itself. I just don't think they can account for everything, if they could there would be no point in playing the games.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

Before I start, I need to mention at the top that both Carolina and Seattle are significantly different teams today than they were back in week 6, so I'm not sure how much predictive power this post will have. But still, looking into the numbers in the Panthers game... it was a lot weirder than I remembered it being.

Back in week 6, Carolina beat Seattle 27-23. Even though Seattle led by two scores at one point, it felt like a totally legit win by Carolina. Carolina outgained Seattle by 49 yards, they won time of possession, and they won the first down battle by an astounding 25-14 margin. The Panthers had almost as many rushing first downs (10) as Seattle had total first downs.

So obviously, this result must have happened because Cam was hot right? Well, not exactly. His passer rating for the game was a Sanchezian 65.6, and none of his stats looked good. Low completion rate, relatively low YPA, and he threw two picks against 1 TD. And his one TD came on an infamous coverage breakdown. Newton was also sacked three times and rushed for only 30 yards. Devin Funchess led all Carolina WRs with just 24 receiving yards.

So if it wasn't the passing game, then it had to be Stewart steamrolling the Hawks without Wagner right? Well, the answer there is also a surprising no. Stewart averaged a surprisingly low 3.9 yards per carry, and his longest carry of the game was just 11 yards. Carolina did reach 145 yards rushing which is an excellent number, but they only made it so high due to a huge number of rush attempts thanks to having so many first downs.

So obviously, the Panthers must have had a great game on 3rd down right? Well... actually not really. Their 4/11 third down conversion rate (36.4%) is below the NFL average.

At this point I'm starting to get baffled. Maybe Carolina was gifted an avalanche of first downs by penalty? Nope, Carolina was only gifted one first down by penalty. Seattle was penalized 7 times overall for 48 total yards, both are numbers that Pete would probably take most weeks.

Maybe they racked up some desperation 4th down conversions? Nope, they went 0/1 on 4th down.

The simple amazing truth is that Carolina was very poor at QB play, and basically average at RB play, and still found a way to convert an unbelievable 20 first downs on 1st or 2nd down.

So how is this possible to get such amazing production with such feeble numbers across the board?

They did it by bunching that production into bursts in a remarkable way. Carolina averaged 80 yards per drive on their 4 TD drives, but on all other non-kneel down drives - 8 of them - the Panthers averaged just 7.9 (!) yards per drive while also throwing two picks.

It should also be noted that two of those 80 yard TD drives happened in the final 8 minutes back when Seattle was infamous for blowing 4th quarter leads.

I'm not trying to diminish what the Panthers did. Yards all count the same when you are playing in a tight football game. But what did give me comfort was just how odd and seemingly unrepeatable that kind of a performance is. To get your ass handed to you in epic fashion in 8 of 12 drives, but score 80 yard TD drives four times. 63 yards total over 8 drives. 320 yards total in the other 4 drives. That is nuts.

It makes me wonder how Carolina's offense might do in a rematch where the game flow is not nearly so unusual.

Firstly, this is a fantastic post and a fascinating insight into the week 6 game.

Secondly -- I spent a lot of time thinking about this game on a long work drive tonight. I think it's encouraging that the Seahawks' O-line is much improved from that initial game. The secondary is minus Cary Williams and has regained Jeremy Lane. Kevin Pierre-Louis won't be starting at linebacker. And the Seahawks have done a much better job of defending TE's in the second half of the season.

Those four things are not insignificant. I also think we played Carolina at the their best moment -- when they were proving they were legit. They saw that game in Seattle as a major opportunity. They were also coming off a bye week and had a lot of time to prepare (a benefit they enjoy this time too admittedly). I'm not convinced they're quite as good now -- but with it being the playoffs they might ramp it up again.

I also take some comfort from knowing the last time the Panthers had a bye (year we won the SB) they laid a massive egg against the 49ers at home and were one-and-done despite a handsome 12-4 regular season record that season.

 

[Polaris]

DVOA says differently...much differently.

While stats are nice to look and they do tell you some things I've never been one to rely solely on any metrics by itself. I just don't think they can account for everything, if they could there would be no point in playing the games.

Don't try to answer how much a unit has improved without a direct comparison possible and THEN not tell me to look at advanced stats designed to do just that. It's hypocritical.

 

[carolinablue]

DVOA says differently...much differently.

While stats are nice to look and they do tell you some things I've never been one to rely solely on any metrics by itself. I just don't think they can account for everything, if they could there would be no point in playing the games.

Don't try to answer how much a unit has improved without a direct comparison possible and THEN not tell me to look at advanced stats designed to do just that. It's hypocritical.

No you can look at what you want. I'm just saying Carolina improved from that point on to be able to lead the league in scoring. The most important metric is scoreboard I think.

Just out of curiosity and hypothetically speaking of course, if Seattle were to somehow lose this weekend (I know there is small chance of that but indulge me) what does that say about using DVOA when evaluating how two teams match up with each other?

 

[Polaris]

DVOA says differently...much differently.

While stats are nice to look and they do tell you some things I've never been one to rely solely on any metrics by itself. I just don't think they can account for everything, if they could there would be no point in playing the games.

Don't try to answer how much a unit has improved without a direct comparison possible and THEN not tell me to look at advanced stats designed to do just that. It's hypocritical.

No you can look at what you want. I'm just saying Carolina improved from that point on to be able to lead the league in scoring. The most important metric is scoreboard I think.

Just out of curiosity and hypothetically speaking of course, if Seattle were to somehow lose this weekend (I know there is small chance of that but indulge me) what does that say about using DVOA when evaluating how two teams match up with each other?

No it's not. Points allowed is far more indicative of defensive strength than points scored is indicative of offensive strength or overall team success. Exhibit A: The 2013-4 Denver Broncos

Edit Addendum: In any event the raw NFL stats are far less useful than the adjusted stats because the adjusted stats account for not only schedule strength but also how important those yards (and scores) really were. Scoring 14 points in the fourth qtr when you are already up by 30 is frankly not all that impressive, just as (and DVOA accounts for this) getting 4 yards on third down when you needed 8 is also not all that impressive. This is why I use DVOA as my first (not only) go to stat when judging team strength and effectiveness, and it's the fairest way to judge how much each offense has improved. Both have, but Seattle's has improved more. I don't say that; the offensive metrics when properly adjusted do.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

If the Panthers win it means nob all about DVOA.

DVOA doesn't say because a team is superior overall they'll never lose to an inferior team.

That doesn't stop us using it to base some pretty solid opinions on both clubs going into a match-up.

 

[Polaris]

DVOA is not meant to be used as a predictive tool. Aaron Schatz has said that many times. Frankly I don't think Seattle is going to lose and if they do lose it will be close. I note that football outsiders is predicting a Panthers win just so you know (and they use DVOA). Why? Carolina is playing at home. Also just because a team has a better overall DVOA doesn't mean that it will play that way during any individual game.

However, I am not going to be suckered into the game of "well what if they lose, nyah nyah". I don't think Seattle will lose. Do I think it's possible? Sure. That is consistent with my prediction the game will be close. That doesn't mean I am going to predict it though or speculate on it.