Should Russel Wilson take Tom Brady like deal? (Times)

[SoulfishHawk]

:34853_doh:

 

[AVL]

Brady, the playoff cheat, had left tens of millions of dollars on the table and helped forced the whole team payroll to ridiculously low levels.

I have always thought he was getting paid under the table. The whole rich wife thing is laughable.
I don't think Wilson will go for that.

 

[IndyHawk]

If I was an NFL QB, I would play for free. Then I'd set up a donation fund where people can give me money if they like the way I play. If I was elite I bet I would make more in donations than I would have gotten in salary.

Soulfish only will do RW :lol:

 

[SoulfishHawk]

:irishdrinkers:
He is my Quarterback, that's fo sho.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Brady, the playoff cheat, had left tens of millions of dollars on the table and helped forced the whole team payroll to ridiculously low levels.

I have always thought he was getting paid under the table. The whole rich wife thing is laughable.
I don't think Wilson will go for that.

Brady's average annual salary is REALLY where the Patriot's save money, I think he's like #20 in the league in QB average annual salary?

But also remember he's on his what, 6th or 7th contract of earning 20M+ per year when you add in incentives met and bonus every new deal. Brady's earned almost 200M in his career, Russell's not even at 75M so far.

So to expect Russell to do something similar in only his 3rd contract and when he's only 30 is not only unrealistic, it's not fair to Russell. Maybe when Russell's still rolling at 35 with another 100M in the bank we can have this "hey do what Brady did" conversation.

But now? No.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Much better analysis, here:

http://seahawksdraftblog.com/the-russel ... -is-coming

Unless the Seahawks were willing to top those numbers and offer Wilson $36-38m per year on a long extension, why would he sign? He’d be getting $67m for two years work. Remember, his existing contract only contained $61.5m in total guarantees.

A third year on the tag would cost $43m. Under the current cap that wouldn’t be manageable. Who knows where the NFL will be in 2022? At the moment, however, that would likely be the point where Wilson tests the market. Just as Cousins did.

The Seahawks have no leverage in these talks. The only card they can play is an appreciation for Wilson, familiarity and the success they’ve so far enjoyed together. With tens of millions at stake that doesn’t seem sufficient.

Wilson and Rodgers can turn to the Seahawks and lay out three numbers: $30m, $36m, $43m. Annual figures all guaranteed with three franchise tags.

There’s simply no serious incentive for Wilson to take anything Seattle offers that doesn’t compare favourably to what he can get, fully guaranteed, under the tag. It’s not just the cap hit we’re talking about here. Three franchise tags equals about $110m fully guaranteed for three extra seasons.

The idea that the Seahawks have no leverage is kind of silly. It’s a massive risk for Russell to play on the franchise tag for 3 years, he’ll be damn near 35 by that point and who knows how effective he’ll be as he starts to slow down physically.

People are focusing too heavily on what Russell stands to gain from playing the franchise tag game while ignoring the all of the downsides.

You're leaving out Wilson's view. He doesn't see a lot of downside. He's the type who's 110% confident in his own ability both to play in the present and age gracefully in the future. He also might suspect, as some here do, that he has more potential that could be unlocked by a less rudimentary passing game.

So there's every reason to think that Wilson does indeed have the Seahawks over a barrel here, and if the Seahawks aren't completely clueless, they might draft a new QB to get back into the game.

 

[knownone]

You're leaving out Wilson's view. He doesn't see a lot of downside. He's the type who's 110% confident in his own ability both to play in the present and age gracefully in the future. He also might suspect, as some here do, that he has more potential that could be unlocked by a less rudimentary passing game.

So there's every reason to think that Wilson does indeed have the Seahawks over a barrel here, and if the Seahawks aren't completely clueless, they might draft a new QB to get back into the game.

You seem to be missing the context of my statement. I'm replying to a post that only gives Wilson's point of view while painting the Seahawks as if they have no leverage in negotiations, which (IMO) is untrue. You'll notice that my first sentence starts off with: "The idea that the Seahawks have no leverage is kind of silly."; implying the subject is the Seahawks perceived lack of leverage not my own perception of the situation as a whole.

Wilson can think whatever he wants, but his thoughts are irrelevant from a leverage standpoint. He will take on substantial risk if he attempts to play 4 years on what essentially amounts to one-year contracts. Imagine if Russell goes into the final year of his contract and suffers an Alex Smith type of injury in the playoffs. He'd be a free agent with an injury that might force him to miss one or two full season. On top of that, most GMs in the league think his greatest attribute is his ability to extend plays with his legs.

The Seahawks hold that leverage over Wilson. They can point to Kam Chancellor as an example of why he'd be better off signing a long term extension now, rather than playing 4 years of roulette just to min/max his potential earnings.

 

[KARAVARUS]

I would tell Russell all the facts. The more you make, the less we have to support you. Then I would say—You bring us your contract and we’ll sign off on it.

 

[soxhawk]

I would tell Russell all the facts. The more you make, the less we have to support you. Then I would say—You bring us your contract and we’ll sign off on it.

I'd certainly have that respect if he didn't come back with a max contract demand. If he did, maybe the guys who say he's fake are right. If he didn't, he's a big picture guy. Either way, Hawks would probably have to sign him as you stated.

 

[mrt144]

I would tell Russell all the facts. The more you make, the less we have to support you. Then I would say—You bring us your contract and we’ll sign off on it.

I mean, this is obvious without anyone saying a word. The ridiculous thing is thinking players should forgo salary to make a better team on the whole out of the inner competitive spirit they should supposedly possess.

Players like RW dont need the money per se (7 year vet, marketing deals, the whole shebang) but theyre absolutely deserving of whatever they can negotiate for at the table. Players are marketable cogs and if a GM and Owner have to rely on their star QB taking far below market rate despite their value to the franchise in tangible on field ways and intangible PR ways, thats the bed they make.

The biggest reason I see for a player not giving up a percentage of their salary is a lack of faith in that money being put to good use by the GM. Not only is there the initial slap of saying to a player "you overvalue yourself on the team" theres a second slap of the GMs body of work in utilizing that cap with trades and FAs.

For all the good JS brings he gets a little cute at times and probably doesnt deserve faith from RW that he could either directly help RW with excess money or shore up other parts of the team like getting a few mid level vets on D for starting and depth roles. Seriously, what has JS done to deserve faith from RW that he could make a better team with RW fetching 15 mil less than the market would pay?

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I would tell Russell all the facts. The more you make, the less we have to support you. Then I would say—You bring us your contract and we’ll sign off on it.

Russell knows the facts, the fact is he like all players have a very limited window to make the most money possible, they have their life shortened by playing football and are susceptible to very serious long term medical risks like CTE.

We as fans would like players to be things like loyal, selfless and take one for the team..........when the reality is Russell's knee could explode on one play and his career is over. So I don't fault any player for getting as much money as possible before they get hurt and/or retire.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

He will take on substantial risk if he attempts to play 4 years on what essentially amounts to one-year contracts.

And what if he doesn't see it that way?

How Wilson sees it is everything. Not "what's true even if Wilson doesn't see it".

 

[mrt144]

He will take on substantial risk if he attempts to play 4 years on what essentially amounts to one-year contracts.

And what if he doesn't see it that way?

How Wilson sees it is everything. Not "what's true even if Wilson doesn't see it".

One thing that constantly frustrates me is people assigning a rational 'non football player' motive to football players despite big differences in the circumstances from where they're pulling that rational motive model from and applying it to. Basically ignoring cool cats like Marshawn Lynch doing what they do, players hanging it up in their prime leaving 50 mil in earnings on the table, etc etc.

To me, superimposing what you would do or what people in your field do, is a faulty basis for prescribing what players should do. Key Example: People crapping on Okung for playing his own agent cause he was curious about what he could do there. Is it rational to explore your nascent curiosity at the expense of potential future earnings? Probably not, but given Okung's situation, stability, past earnings, what did he really have to lose from his perspective besides a marginal amount of money on top of past earnings? And what did he have to gain - satisfying a cognitive itch he always had that he may never get to scratch again outside of football.

I am going to talk some smack towards fellow posters here but some of you guys are so basic that you can't appreciate that football players are more complex individuals than you want them to be and give them credit for. Some of you don't even really hide that you want anonymous robotic grunts playing the game for your entertainment - you just articulate that desire in ways that dance around explicitly saying that by castigating any player who doesn't conform to that platonic ideal in your mind with hilarious little nitpicks.

 

[chris98251]

Seahawks only leverage is that Wilson now has a house and ties here, other then that there is a Team in Oakland at least today that had the only guy that loved him draft day there and a supposed rift with Carr, also with that team going to Vegas soon Ciara would be in a pretty good spot to leverage her career as well.

Vegas closer to L.A. area or San Diego where Wilson does a lot of his off season workouts also.

Oakland has Money, Draft Capital and will be the next Starlings promoted by the NFL.

 

[hgwellz12]

Seahawks only leverage is that Wilson now has a house and ties here, other then that there is a Team in Oakland at least today that had the only guy that loved him draft day there and a supposed rift with Carr, also with that team going to Vegas soon Ciara would be in a pretty good spot to leverage her career as well.

Vegas closer to L.A. area or San Diego where Wilson does a lot of his off season workouts also.

Oakland has Money, Draft Capital and will be the next Starlings promoted by the NFL.

This move would eff me up sumn turrible! I want Russ to retire a HAWK. But more than that, I don't want him behind another Cable 'oline' for another single snap. Ever.

 

[John63]

Seahawks only leverage is that Wilson now has a house and ties here, other then that there is a Team in Oakland at least today that had the only guy that loved him draft day there and a supposed rift with Carr, also with that team going to Vegas soon Ciara would be in a pretty good spot to leverage her career as well.

Vegas closer to L.A. area or San Diego where Wilson does a lot of his off season workouts also.

Oakland has Money, Draft Capital and will be the next Starlings promoted by the NFL.

This move would eff me up sumn turrible! I want Russ to retire a HAWK. But more than that, I don't want him behind another Cable 'oline' for another single snap. Ever.

If he got traded, it would not be the Raiders.

 

[Seahawker]

Russell Wilson's current contract- 4 year 87.6M, 31M signing bonus, 21.9M avg.

Average yearly salary.
1 Aaron Rodgers 33.5M
2 Matt Ryan 30M
3 Kirk Cousins 28M
4 Jimmy Garoppolo 27.5M
5 Matthew Stafford 27M
6 Derek Carr 25M
7 Drew Brees 25M
8 Andrew Luck 24.6M
#12 Russell Wilson 21.9M

If JS & PC want to retain RW at a reasonable rate they had better be ready to take the gloves off early and establish a firm offer before the record breaking 35M numbers start getting thrown around by his agent. The front office especially does not want to be faced with the Kirk Cousins franchise tag route, if RW takes a snap in 19' without a new contract it is going to become very, very costly to keep him. I would like to see John & Pete get on the same page and make Wilson a fair offer near or at their upper limit before the amusement park negotiations start. They should say all the right things but make sure RW knows this is a firm offer, the only modifiable terms being signing bonus, yearly guarantees.
This is just an example, but I would suggest a 5 year, 142.5M, 28.5 avg contract. We would soon see how committed Russell is to Seattle and whether playing for another team (amongst limited viable options) is worth the risk vs his future goals. If he turns it down they should reiterate their position and give him a set time before they move forward with trade negotiations starting with an opening price of three first round picks.

Go right ahead & flame me, that is what I think Russell Wilson is worth. Many of you think he deserves the maximum, if this is drawn out the only winner will be Wilson financially, all other variables will be at risk.

 

[John63]

Russell Wilson's current contract- 4 year 87.6M, 31M signing bonus, 21.9M avg.

Average yearly salary.
1 Aaron Rodgers 33.5M
2 Matt Ryan 30M
3 Kirk Cousins 28M
4 Jimmy Garoppolo 27.5M
5 Matthew Stafford 27M
6 Derek Carr 25M
7 Drew Brees 25M
8 Andrew Luck 24.6M
#12 Russell Wilson 21.9M

If JS & PC want to retain RW at a reasonable rate they had better be ready to take the gloves off early and establish a firm offer before the record breaking 35M numbers start getting thrown around by his agent. The front office especially does not want to be faced with the Kirk Cousins franchise tag route, if RW takes a snap in 19' without a new contract it is going to become very, very costly to keep him. I would like to see John & Pete get on the same page and make Wilson a fair offer near or at their upper limit before the amusement park negotiations start. They should say all the right things but make sure RW knows this is a firm offer, the only modifiable terms being signing bonus, yearly guarantees.
This is just an example, but I would suggest a 5 year, 142.5M, 28.5 avg contract. We would soon see how committed Russell is to Seattle and whether playing for another team (amongst limited viable options) is worth the risk vs his future goals. If he turns it down they should reiterate their position and give him a set time before they move forward with trade negotiations starting with an opening price of three first round picks.

Go right ahead & flame me, that is what I think Russell Wilson is worth. Many of you think he deserves the maximum, if this is drawn out the only winner will be Wilson financially, all other variables will be at risk.

So first you think Matt Ryan is worth more than Wilson?
That said the question you did not have for your offer is how much is guaranteed, that is likely to be the biggest issue and might be the only way we get Wilson at that number. Also if this is an extension that means it is really a 6 years deal at 164.4 and 27.4 per year as they will most certainly spread it out over all 6. Which now means he would be #5 with only one QB ahead of him that arguably should be.

That said if I had to guess we are looking at 5-year extension at 160 or 32 mil per year with probably at least 70% guaranteed. This would mean it is really a 6 year deal at 181.9mil or 30.3 mil a year.

The good part is there is no top QB FA this year. The bad the year Wilson becomes a FA the following also become FAs, Brees, Big Ben, Manning, Rivers, Brady, Mariota, Foles, Winston, Prescott. So if we don't sign him this year it will cost us more next.

Spotrac says Wilsons Market value as of now is 32.1M which is what I said. Now the cap this year is slated to be 191mil which means 32 mil would be a 16.7% hit. However in 2020 if the increase % of the cap going up stays consistent it will be about 203 mil and then his hit would be 15.76%.

in 2015 when Wilson signed his last deal, the cap was 143.28 which made his cap hit 15.28% so we are still right in the ballpark.

That said the mitigating factor will be guaranteed money. The more you guarantee the lower the overall offer can be to a point. I think the 30mil per year might be the lowest. So say 30 mil a year for 5 that is 150 with say 100 mil guaranteed.
30 mil a year would be a cap % for 2020 of about 14.78%. If we take into account that it will really be a 6 year for 171.9 mil or 28.65 mil, that would be a cap % in 2019 of %15 on the nose but again this is with 100 mil guaranteed.

 

[chris98251]

Seahawks only leverage is that Wilson now has a house and ties here, other then that there is a Team in Oakland at least today that had the only guy that loved him draft day there and a supposed rift with Carr, also with that team going to Vegas soon Ciara would be in a pretty good spot to leverage her career as well.

Vegas closer to L.A. area or San Diego where Wilson does a lot of his off season workouts also.

Oakland has Money, Draft Capital and will be the next Starlings promoted by the NFL.

This move would eff me up sumn turrible! I want Russ to retire a HAWK. But more than that, I don't want him behind another Cable 'oline' for another single snap. Ever.

If he got traded, it would not be the Raiders.

Once again a one liner with no reasoning why wouldn't he I made an arguement that makes it plausable. You brought a nope based on nothing supportive.

 

[knownone]

He will take on substantial risk if he attempts to play 4 years on what essentially amounts to one-year contracts.

And what if he doesn't see it that way?

How Wilson sees it is everything. Not "what's true even if Wilson doesn't see it".

Wilson can 'see it' whatever way he wants that will not change the level of risk he'd be taking on, make sense? He can choose to accept that risk but that doesn't diminish the risk or the Seahawks leverage based on that risk.

Think about your argument for a second; you are essentially arguing based on a hypothetical of what you think Russell might think. I'm simply stating a fact that the Seahawks do have leverage because Wilson would risk injury playing 4 years on one-year deals into his mid-30s.