Russ Scores More Than 13.

[John63]

There are also things you don't see when you rewatch them because you don't want to

Yea right. Most games I rewatch at least twice, and usually I watch the All-22 tape. But I guess you already had stats on that already. Nice try.

Hey Agent, loved your second to last post. You verbalized a point that usually gets glossed over. Nice work.

LOL yeah I mean I only also rewatch the games, and the all 22, and look at the stats, and listen to experts too. Thanks for admitting you don't see things because you don't want to though, let me know when you find a stats to support you, till then like I said I will go with the stats, and facts rather than someones biased eye test

 

[AgentDib]

Even though keeping the game close also leaves you vulnerable to mistakes like missed calls, referee steering, bad calls, etc. Our strategy and approach assures our floor is also pretty much our ceiling.

I would instead suggest that the major variable you have not touched on is that the relative strength of your defense and special teams is fundamental to the "correct" level of offensive aggression.

Imagine a hypothetical team with perfect defense and special teams. It's easy to see that team would dominate in win probability provided the offense just minimized mistakes, punted often, and kicked field goals whenever they got the ball within range. There may be a bunch of "ugly" 6-0, 3-0, 9-0 games but they would always win. Conversely, a hypothetical team with no defense or special teams should play extremely aggressively on offense. They should never punt or play conservatively and should always try for onside kickoffs.

As a result, I disagree with any broad generalizations about whether a conservative or aggressive offensive game plan is better in a vacuum. The better question is how aggressive should our offense play given the expected play of our defense.

We have a system that extracts near the minimum value from one of our best players. A player we will need to pay 30M+ to keep.

I think there is a kernel of truth here but you are also underestimating the value of efficient QB play on third downs in a run first offense. The more we run on early downs the more third downs we should expect, and our third down conversion rate becomes more important as a result. Would you agree that we saw a 30m+ performance out of Wilson in the Lions game this year despite him passing for sub 250 yards?

 

[John63]

For some reason, some on this board hold Wilson to a much higher standard than any other ELITE QB in the league and it laughable to me.

You are surprised that some Hawks fans are more critical of inconsistent play from a Hawks QB than they are another QB? I'd say that sounds reasonable, and also similar to Hawks fans who are harder on the Hawks offense vs. the Cowboys than they are on McVay's Rams offense vs. the Patriots.

How is expecting your QB to perform better than other QB's of his talent level "reasonable?"

ITs not but it is not that he has to perform better than say Brady and others but he has to be perfect. You have people that do nothing more than look for reasons to complain about his play. The game he had a perfect QB rating, someone came on here and said yeah it was perfect but if you rewatch the game, he missed a lot of opportunities. It's bizarre, In my 50+ years of playing, watching, coaching, and reffing I have never seen this.

 

[John63]

The point of the debate is he has been bad in the playoff since 2015, which is what was said, clearly that is untrue. As to if he would have scored more than 13 I think so, but that is an opinion with no facts to support. However, it is a fact he has not been bad in the playoffs and in fact overall has been good since 2015 till now.

So you're just repeating your previous post as if I never made one...

No I am reminding of what this debate was about and how there really is no debate whether looking at career or just since 2015 Wilson has played as well in the playoffs as the supposed GOAT and as pointed out in the post above yours has also played as well or better than 2 other Elite QB, and therefore it is not accurate to say he has not. Wilson ha splayed well in the playoffs since 2015 and for his career.

I've given you numbers that refute everything you just said. He's been mediocre in the postseason since 2014, definitely not Brady.

And I have given numbers that show you are wrong, and actually showed Bradys numbers and how they are actually close, but let me help you 2015-2018

Brady 347 yards per game, 63% complt, 1.8tds, .8 ints, 92qb rating
Wilson 238 yards per game, 64% complete, 1.8tds, 1 int, 95 Qb

So Brady gets more yards, (he has more attempts), Wilson complt%, the same in TDs, Brady in int, and Wilson in QB rating

So thanks for playing but the STATS clearly show Wilson has played well in the playoffs as well if not better than Brady.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

:snack:

 

[TwistedHusky]

John,

You do realize that the most important stat is wins in the playoffs right?

Ask Flacco, he would be middling all year and his team was not really dominant but yet, he would lead them to wins in the playoffs. In fact, he would often be much better in the playoffs than in comparable regular season games.

That tailed off recently, and accordingly, they shifted gear on him. But for a while, even as a not that great QB...he was effective in the post-season ALMOST being worth that ridiculous contract. Winning in the playoffs is a big deal and a hugely important stat.

Brady has won many Super Bowls. Wilson has won 1, lost 1. Stats outside of context do not matter. Obviously, Brady has a better coach but still, comparing Wilson to Brady is like comparing James Harden to Michael Jordan. Harden is a very good player, difficult to defend, does amazing things on the court - but Jordan has won on every level multiple times. It isn't a comparison at all.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

So you're just repeating your previous post as if I never made one...

No I am reminding of what this debate was about and how there really is no debate whether looking at career or just since 2015 Wilson has played as well in the playoffs as the supposed GOAT and as pointed out in the post above yours has also played as well or better than 2 other Elite QB, and therefore it is not accurate to say he has not. Wilson ha splayed well in the playoffs since 2015 and for his career.

I've given you numbers that refute everything you just said. He's been mediocre in the postseason since 2014, definitely not Brady.

And I have given numbers that show you are wrong, and actually showed Bradys numbers and how they are actually close, but let me help you 2015-2018

Brady 347 yards per game, 63% complt, 1.8tds, .8 ints, 92qb rating
Wilson 238 yards per game, 64% complete, 1.8tds, 1 int, 95 Qb

So Brady gets more yards, (he has more attempts), Wilson complt%, the same in TDs, Brady in int, and Wilson in QB rating

So thanks for playing but the STATS clearly show Wilson has played well in the playoffs as well if not better than Brady.

I don't know where you got your QBR numbers, but mine (pro football reference) give Brady as 94 and Wilson as 91.

Could be worse, certainly. But no, there isn't a soul on this board except for you who thinks Wilson's the equal of Tom Brady. He's certainly not BETTER than Brady.

I'm now done with this argument. You're just digging your heels in at this point and you're difficult to talk to.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Shoot, I love me some Russ. But no way in hell is he at Brady level. And that's ok, he's damn good and I would like to think that most of us are happy he's the QB of this team. That being said, those claiming he hasn't been good in the playoffs, come on man.

 

[John63]

No I am reminding of what this debate was about and how there really is no debate whether looking at career or just since 2015 Wilson has played as well in the playoffs as the supposed GOAT and as pointed out in the post above yours has also played as well or better than 2 other Elite QB, and therefore it is not accurate to say he has not. Wilson ha splayed well in the playoffs since 2015 and for his career.

I've given you numbers that refute everything you just said. He's been mediocre in the postseason since 2014, definitely not Brady.

And I have given numbers that show you are wrong, and actually showed Bradys numbers and how they are actually close, but let me help you 2015-2018

Brady 347 yards per game, 63% complt, 1.8tds, .8 ints, 92qb rating
Wilson 238 yards per game, 64% complete, 1.8tds, 1 int, 95 Qb

So Brady gets more yards, (he has more attempts), Wilson complt%, the same in TDs, Brady in int, and Wilson in QB rating

So thanks for playing but the STATS clearly show Wilson has played well in the playoffs as well if not better than Brady.

I don't know where you got your QBR numbers, but mine (pro football reference) give Brady as 94 and Wilson as 91.

Could be worse, certainly. But no, there isn't a soul on this board except for you who thinks Wilson's the equal of Tom Brady. He's certainly not BETTER than Brady.

I'm now done with this argument. You're just digging your heels in at this point and you're difficult to talk to.

Well for one I did not say Wilson was as good or better than Brady only he played as well or better than Brady in the playoffs since 2015. As to digging my heals in, that seems like code for I don't agree with you to me, and the same could be said of you.

What is really scary is no matter whose stats we use, and make no mistakes the QB ratings are very close, you are really trying to say that a QB rating of 94 is so much better than 91, which it is not, or that in my stats a QB rating of 95 is so much better than 92 which again it is not, Either way, you look at it your assumption that Wilson has not played well in the playoffs since 2015 is not correct. As to where I got my stats I crossed referenced through numerous free and paid stat sites, to include but not limited to ESPN, Pro Football Reference, Foxsports, NFL.com, Footballoutsiders, CBSsports, Bleacherreport, RotoWire and many others. I rarely use only one source for stats.

 

[John63]

Shoot, I love me some Russ. But no way in hell is he at Brady level. And that's ok, he's damn good and I would like to think that most of us are happy he's the QB of this team. That being said, those claiming he hasn't been good in the playoffs, come on man.

And I never said he was as good as Brady that is an assumption that was made. I said he has played as good or better in the playoffs since 2015 as Brady. That was an attempt by the poster to change the narrative.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Trust me on this, you won't win with some on here, regardless what the facts and/or stats prove. It's a waste of energy, and I've slowly but surely started to give up. If people don't see how good he is and/or how lucky we are to have him here, they never will. There is a person on her who actually said that Hass was TWICE the QB that Russ is. Nuff said......

 

[John63]

Trust me on this, you won't win with some on here, regardless what the facts and/or stats prove. It's a waste of energy, and I've slowly but surely started to give up. If people don't see how good he is and/or how lucky we are to have him here, they never will. There is a person on her who actually said that Hass was TWICE the QB that Russ is. Nuff said......

I agree, ignorance is bliss and there are some very blissful people on here, that said it is a forum a place to discuss things, so discuss I will.

 

[KiwiHawk]

I agree, ignorance is bliss and there are some very blissful people on here, that said it is a forum a place to discuss things, so discuss I will.

I also agree that the point of a discussion forum is to discuss. Unfortunately, it seems if you bring up anything to discuss about some of the sacred players here, other than to say they are great, people act like they are personally being attacked.

I could be talking about Widget X and say "it's the greatest thing since sliced bread, but I wish it came in blue" and people would dump statistic after statistic "proving" it's better than Widget Y without ever hearing or understanding the point under discussion.

In the case of this topic, does Wilson score more than 13 vs the Pats in the Super Bowl? Absolutely. He has every time we've faced the Pats, so odds are pretty good he would again. Does that mean we win? Different topic, unrelated to this one.

 

[John63]

I agree, ignorance is bliss and there are some very blissful people on here, that said it is a forum a place to discuss things, so discuss I will.

I also agree that the point of a discussion forum is to discuss. Unfortunately, it seems if you bring up anything to discuss about some of the sacred players here, other than to say they are great, people act like they are personally being attacked.

I could be talking about Widget X and say "it's the greatest thing since sliced bread, but I wish it came in blue" and people would dump statistic after statistic "proving" it's better than Widget Y without ever hearing or understanding the point under discussion.

In the case of this topic, does Wilson score more than 13 vs the Pats in the Super Bowl? Absolutely. He has every time we've faced the Pats, so odds are pretty good he would again. Does that mean we win? Different topic, unrelated to this one.

I agree, another example I say he has played as well or better than Brady in the PLayoffs since 2015 and all of a sudden the narrative changes to I said he is better, which I did not. One of the reasons I try to use facts to support my stances. I think one of the issues with bringing up certain things about players that question how good they are is the way it is brought up and why. example You want to say Wilson can't be Elite because he is not good at throwing over the middle. For one that is factually untrue, but more importantly define what not being good enough is, and how his performance relates to others you see as Elite. I have no problem saying Wilson can or cannot do something, I do agree at times he takes unneeded sacks. The difference for me is I look at the when and reason behind it. Also, I don't say because he does that he can't be ELite, heck Brady took a few in the playoffs, it happens. I think the reason it is tough on this board to be critical of Wilson, is some on here will use anything they can get real or made up to say "see he is not Elite or he is not top 10 or he is not the reason we are winning, or we would be better without him. All things I have read on this forum. The need for those who dislike Wilson and come up with anything has made it so you can have constructive criticism of him. Because if you give them an inch they take 10 miles.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

It's been this way for years, it will never change. He could throw 7 touchdowns and 1 pick, and all people would talk about was the one pick. Meh, eventually you realize it's not even worth the effort.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

I agree, ignorance is bliss and there are some very blissful people on here, that said it is a forum a place to discuss things, so discuss I will.

I also agree that the point of a discussion forum is to discuss. Unfortunately, it seems if you bring up anything to discuss about some of the sacred players here, other than to say they are great, people act like they are personally being attacked.

I could be talking about Widget X and say "it's the greatest thing since sliced bread, but I wish it came in blue" and people would dump statistic after statistic "proving" it's better than Widget Y without ever hearing or understanding the point under discussion.

You don't think the question of whether Wilson is personnel-transcendent vs. requires a full team behind him to win another Super Bowl is a relevant point? I do. Brady carries his team to a greater degree than Wilson. That suggests to me that, like Wilson in 2013-2014, he's a great QB but also needs a full team, and that's going to get interesting with the shrinking salary cap coming up.

I'm sorry if you think that's "disliking Wilson", even though I have no particular record on this board of being a Wilson hater. But it's a relevant question.

 

[mrt144]

Leave out deep sideline passes, how many times have you heard questions about Russ either missing a WR because he was late, didn't anticipate or he couldn't pull the trigger?

Part of being an elite QB, outside of stats, is doing the little things that JAGs struggle with. I would love to see Russ learn how to regularly hit an intermediate target, and also throw a receiver open. Russ also has a tendency to hold the ball to long waiting for a big play ignoring alternate options, and has been criticized by analysts for causing some of his own sacks. I do think he got a little better with this this year. Those are things that don't show up on a stat sheet. You have to watch, and often rewatch, games and consider stats, situations, missed assignments, etc...

No doubt there are RW centric issues like drop depth, footwork, overextending plays but...

Some of those you mention like throwing guys open or intermediate targets, I often wonder how much of that is something RW can improve upon if there's not an increase in their frequency in their attempts by directive and design. It's almost like he's been coached over 7 seasons into avoiding certain risky things and the overall playbook is bereft of designs and concepts that could improve them through game time execution, over and over.

I don't think it's so far off to think that RW is in a self reinforcing risk aversion environment where they avoid things that are risky and thusly never get sufficiently good at those risky things that have a notional higher amount of risk but could buoy aptitude and versatility along the way.

 

[John63]

I agree, ignorance is bliss and there are some very blissful people on here, that said it is a forum a place to discuss things, so discuss I will.

I also agree that the point of a discussion forum is to discuss. Unfortunately, it seems if you bring up anything to discuss about some of the sacred players here, other than to say they are great, people act like they are personally being attacked.

I could be talking about Widget X and say "it's the greatest thing since sliced bread, but I wish it came in blue" and people would dump statistic after statistic "proving" it's better than Widget Y without ever hearing or understanding the point under discussion.

You don't think the question of whether Wilson is personnel-transcendent vs. requires a full team behind him to win another Super Bowl is a relevant point? I do. Brady carries his team to a greater degree than Wilson. That suggests to me that, like Wilson in 2013-2014, he's a great QB but also needs a full team, and that's going to get interesting with the shrinking salary cap coming up.

I'm sorry if you think that's "disliking Wilson", even though I have no particular record on this board of being a Wilson hater. But it's a relevant question.

Well for one I think there are a lot of levels in between "personnel-transcendent vs. requires a full team ". No QB has ever done it by themselves, none at all. Not even Brady, for instance, this year he had a HOF TE, a top WR, his rushing game was ranked 5th, HIs defense ranked 7th in scoring so he did not do it by himself nor has he ever.

I don't think you dislike Wilson, I think you are under a false allusion that Brady and other QB's you think are better do it with less than Wilson or by themselves. Which brings us back to the biggest issue the unrealistic expectations of Wilson and the incorrect perception that other QBs do it by themselves. Let's go back to the SB NE won before this one, He still had Gronk, and a top 10 scoring defense, a top 10 rushing offense.

The point is you might think Brady needs less than Wilson but when you look at it, he needs just as much, no QB does it by themselves. As I pointed out in both of the last 2 New England SB they won Brady had a top 10 defense and run games to help him. IN fact had that been us, and the game went exactly the same, you and others would be saying the defense won the game. However because it is Brady and people are under some misconception, no one even talks about it, all they talk about is how Brady did it when it counted, despite playing bad most of the game.

In fact, I went back the last 7 SB winners, they all had either a top 10 defense (combined or scoring) or top 10 run game or both. So no QB does it by themselves.

 

[Scorpion05]

The Patriots held the freakin Rams to 3 points. They completely shut out the Chiefs offense for a half. They completely befuddled the Chargers offense for an entire game. Their entire legacy began by shutting down the greatest show on turf, winning championships with Brady throwing for 1 TD and like 150 yards.

How the hell can anyone conclude that Brady does more with less compared to Russ given those numbers? Belicheck is a wizard for pulling that off over and over again. Again seriously, what other team is holding the Rams to THREE points? Brady has had an amazing career but people are really letting perception lead the actual reality of these games. It’s also worth noting that star players or former Seahawks have gone to the Patriots and not always excelled at the highest level. With Belicheck it’s never about talent on paper it’s about fit

 

[Spin Doctor]

I used to be a big detractor of Wilson until I started watching other teams as well as the Seahawks on Sundays. Wilson surely is an unpolished passer, and he has some technical issues in the pocket. For example, if you compare Wilson to Brady in the pocket, watching Wilson is like watching a giraffe on ice skates when he tries to pocket pass. This year, as much as I hate Schottenheimer as a playcaller, he really came in and reinforced the basics. His footwork was markedly improved, and he actually stepped up in the pocket. Those are two things Schottenheimer stated he wanted to work on this year. There was more consistency, and less of those random flyers. The offensive line wasn't the only reason for it, a lot of it seemed to be a reinforcement of the basics.

So, how did Russ end up here? How come he didn't get proper development, and why are fans somewhat tepid on him? I assert that these fans are not really unhappy with Wilson, they're unhappy with a broken offensive system. Pete runs an odd system in that he wants to win the TOP battle, but he also likes to attack deep early and often. We send all of our receivers on really, long developing pass plays. These are low percentage, and they lead to inconsistent performance as a result. Certain routes that are the bread and butter of NFL schemes we refuse to run. It was that way with Hass as well, a player that thrives on timing routes, and throwing guys open, as well as manipulation at the LOS. Even though those were his strengths we didn't play to them in 2010, we kept doing the same thing. It isn't a Wilson problem, it is a Pete problem.

Another thing I noticed is Wilson doesn't have as much agency at the LOS as most QBs do. Often times the playcall comes at the last minute, and he doesn't seem to have much flexibility in his audible options. The way this offense is set up doesn't play well with traditional QB play. The offenses main goal is to avoid turnovers, and as such we're overly conservative (sometimes at the worst times). I just wish that Pete would have more faith in his franchise QB. I have never seen a competent 7 year QB handcuffed like Wilson is. It has held back his development big time.