Levis odds of going #1 are skyrocketing

[Sun Tzu]

Zero good reason to take potential elite QBs Young/Stroud and Richardson, but a 3rd round ILB for sure worth it!

Dunning Kruger in full effect, genius.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Zero good reason to take potential elite QBs Young/Stroud and Richardson, but a 3rd round ILB for sure worth it!

Dunning Kruger in full effect, genius.

There would be a reason to take one of them.

There would be no reason to take the other in the same first round, however, unless you like sabotaging your own team.

Very, very obvious why no team does what you're suggesting. They take the guy and build around him. Simple. Mind-numbingly Simple.

Also, mock drafts aren't what I would do. They're what I think makes sense in context of what the team would do. Yeah, most of them are inaccurate. Welcome to the world. You dropping perfect mocks and perfect NCAA brackets, genius? Didn't think so.

If there's a team out there who would take two quarterbacks in the same first round, you're free to follow them. But there isn't, because it'd be hilarious and terrible.

Of all the hills you've died on, this is the worst.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Zero good reason to take potential elite QBs Young/Stroud and Richardson, but a 3rd round ILB for sure worth it!

Dunning Kruger in full effect, genius.

Also, you may want to look up the actual definition of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Maybe ponder why you think it applies to the guy who is defending the conventional wisdom of the top personnel men in the world. Why would it not apply to you, who are suggesting something that flies in the face of what every executive in the NFL has literally ever done?

 

[massari]

View attachment 58965

Major difference here. All it takes for me is hearing one single guy who's been a part of a high level football team, or preferably part of a QB room to say having two high draft picks is a bad idea. Meanwhile, a veteran forum contributor has QB development and psychology all figured out from the couch.

will just lead to an absolute mess where both players are unhappy at having significantly decreased career prospects, and will likely lead to having zero franchise guys due to the messiness of the situation.

If you're drafting a planned franchise quarterback at 5, he is not going to be happy whatsoever when you draft a competitor with your next best pick instead of a supporting piece for the team. It's malpractice.

it wouldn't go over well on any level of the organization. Quarterback is a position that is highly dependent on development, which itself is highly dependent on organizational chemistry

Taking a quarterback at 5 and 37 would be dumb, too

Taking quarterbacks at 2 and 102 is different, though. One is clearly being taken as a depth player with no expectation at an immediate path to starting, whereas pick 2 overall is where you'd select an instant starter and franchise player.

Congratulations, you've now got 3 quarterbacks, with the hope that one of the two young ones will be a good starter after you've wasted half of his rookie contract, and have nearly guaranteed that one of these first rounders is a complete waste. The dream.

There's a reason this is a highly unconventional thing that's never happened - because it's not a good idea.

If this were a game played on paper, you'd be right.

This is a false oversimplification. You'd increase the chance of failure for both prospects significantly.

It's basic organizational dynamics, and a basic matter of there only being so many reps (plus the fact that only one player can start at the spot in regular season action). It'd make absolutely zero sense, which is why no one would ever do it.

If you find something that shows taking two QBs in the same draft hinders their development, and creates a "messy" situation let me know.

RG3 was fine with taking Cousins in the 4th, but would've been upset if he was a late 1st/early 2nd?

Anthony Richardson is on record of saying he's willing to take the backseat. Late 1st rounders don't expect to start anyways, they have to earn it if they have legit competition. See Green bay with Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love both learning as backups for years before getting the chance to start.


If they're able to land Stroud/Young at #5, and Richardson falls to #20, that's a dream situation if they love both guys.

 

[AROS]

This thread title is up there with "Sweet!! We drafted Ryan Leaf! Future Hall of Famer For Sure!!!!"

 

[Sun Tzu]

Also, you may want to look up the actual definition of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Maybe ponder why you think it applies to the guy who is defending the conventional wisdom of the top personnel men in the world. Why would it not apply to you, who are suggesting something that flies in the face of what every executive in the NFL has literally ever done?

That's my bad Mael. I brought up the Dunning-Kruger effect a few times when posters were claiming to know more than NFL GMs and scouts. A handful of the lads in here read about my personal favorite cognitive bias but lacked the prerequisite intellect and knowledge base to fully understand the concept. Now they roll it out every once in a while when someone disagrees with them. I'll try to avoid big words and references to cognitive biases in the future so as not to confuse the rubes.

 

[massari]

Also, mock drafts aren't what I would do. They're what I think makes sense in context of what the team would do. Yeah, most of them are inaccurate. Welcome to the world. You dropping perfect mocks and perfect NCAA brackets, genius? Didn't think so.

If you notice, genius, the only reason your terrible ILB pick was even brought up was because of this:

He was advocating for something much worse, to be fair.

No, genius, picking a 3rd round ILB is much much worse than picking Anthony Richardson at 20, genius.

If there's a team out there who would take two quarterbacks in the same first round, you're free to follow them. But there isn't, because it'd be hilarious and terrible.

Name one team who had two 1sts, picked a top QB early, then one of the other high upside QBs fell in their laps in the late 1st that the team also loved? If you notice, I clearly stated I'd hope they pick Richardson at 20 if PC/JS loved him and considered him at #5.

The 49ers picked Alex Smith #1, were considering Rodgers there who fell to #24. If he fell to the 49ers at #33, and they didn't take him, you'd have a perfect example.

 

[Maelstrom787]

This thread title is up there with "Sweet!! We drafted Ryan Leaf! Future Hall of Famer For Sure!!!!"

To be fair, the title was factually accurate - it was just based off of a reddit rumor instead of real intel.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Major difference here. All it takes for me is hearing one single guy who's been a part of a high level football team, or preferably part of a QB room to say having two high draft picks is a bad idea. Meanwhile, a veteran forum contributor has QB development and psychology all figured out from the couch.

You're doing the same shit, except you're advocating for a bad idea that's never been tried before (because it's a bad idea and even the upside of that scenario isn't amazing) and I'm advocating for what personnel men have done literally every single time they've ever had the chance to.

This is a legendary meltdown over a complete fantasy that essentially no general manager or executive has ever so much as publicly considered.

 

[massari]

You're doing the same shit, except you're advocating for a bad idea that's never been tried before (because it's a bad idea and even the upside of that scenario isn't amazing) and I'm advocating for what personnel men have done literally every single time they've ever had the chance to.

This is a legendary meltdown over a complete fantasy that essentially no general manager or executive has ever so much as publicly considered.

Which quote exactly is "the same shit"?

If you find something that shows taking two QBs in the same draft hinders their development, and creates a "messy" situation let me know.

RG3 was fine with taking Cousins in the 4th, but would've been upset if he was a late 1st/early 2nd?

Anthony Richardson is on record of saying he's willing to take the backseat. Late 1st rounders don't expect to start anyways, they have to earn it if they have legit competition. See Green bay with Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love both learning as backups for years before getting the chance to start.


If they're able to land Stroud/Young at #5, and Richardson falls to #20, that's a dream situation if they love both guys.

The Redskins took RG3 and Cousins.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Name one team who had two 1sts, picked a top QB early, then one of the other high upside QBs fell in their laps in the late 1st that the team also loved? If you notice, I clearly stated I'd hope they pick Richardson at 20 if PC/JS loved him and considered him at #5.

The 49ers picked Alex Smith #1, were considering Rodgers there who fell to #24. If he fell to the 49ers at #33, and they didn't take him, you'd have a perfect example.

The situation is almost never thought about, because it's not seen as a serious consideration that any team would make.

Here's a great article from Charles Robinson, who asked several personnel men their thoughts on the issue when the Browns had 1 and 4 overall.

Browns asking for trouble if they select 2 QBs in same draft

Even if it would (in theory) give Cleveland two top-end candidates to solve a decades-long problem, it invites too much immediate disaster.

sports.yahoo.com

“It’s not even worth debating,” the executive said with an eyeroll tone. “That will never happen. It really can’t happen for a lot of reasons. That’s movie [expletive]. It’s not even worth getting into.”

That was a common refrain over the past week, when a handful of personnel evaluators were asked if there was even a slightly logical reason the Browns would take two quarterbacks with the first and fourth overall picks. While drafting USC’s Sam Darnold at No. 1 and UCLA’s Josh Rosen No. 4 overall might make a lively barstool argument, NFL evaluators will tell you the conversation is also just …well … dumb.

Even if it would (in theory) give Cleveland two top-end candidates to solve a decades-long problem, it invites too much immediate disaster. Played out in reality, it would fall apart as soon as the second quarterback came off the board at the No. 4 overall pick – at which point the agents of both players would contact the Browns to let them know someone needed to be traded immediately.

Please consider the bold and italicized part very, very carefully. You're not considering the human side of this. This would never fly. There's no reason it'd fly at 5 and 20, either. It's blatantly disrespectful to the career prospects of each draftee.

 

[massari]

That's my bad Mael. I brought up the Dunning-Kruger effect a few times when posters were claiming to know more than NFL GMs and scouts. A handful of the lads in here read about my personal favorite cognitive bias but lacked the prerequisite intellect and knowledge base to fully understand the concept. Now they roll it out every once in a while when someone disagrees with them. I'll try to avoid big words and references to cognitive biases in the future so as not to confuse the rubes.

Jesus......

 

[Appyhawk]

#33 was too high for a guy missing a big fur coat while putting on his Joe Namath impersonation in the waiting room the entire first round.