Levis odds of going #1 are skyrocketing

[SonicHawk]

In all seriousness, what’s the lesson that ties these players together?

Teams are willing to gamble at high stakes for a position of such importance. None of these guys were drafted to teams with a good QB on their roster.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

Prototypical Size? Check
Strong arm? Check
Athletic? Check
Tough? Check

Ignoring:
Shaky Accuracy
Shaky Pocket Presence
Shaky Processing

In college? Jones is the only one of that group with sub 65% career completion in college. What’s your threshold as a GM?

 

[ElvisInBlue]

Teams are willing to gamble at high stakes for a position of such importance. None of these guys were drafted to teams with a good QB on their roster.

Mostly true statement (NY had Eli), but how does that relate to lessons learned from these prospects?

From what I remember only Jones was considered a reach, maybe Trubisky.

 

[toffee]

Enjoy the moment guys, Hawks do not have #5 overall pick often. We don't normally have the opportunity to discuss drafting top candidates, espcially QBs.

 

[WarHawks]

Toolsy QBs have been working out pretty well the last few years. It's also easier to sell your owner on a high upside prospect then a more productive but limited one. Owners want superstar QBs as much as anybody to drive fan engagement and merchandising.

There won't be a QB available at #20 that I would want to draft there. If that ever happened though, sign me up for the double QB plan. Most prospects bust, you need multiple QBs on a team, and if you do hit on both then that becomes the best possible problem that you can have in the NFL.

Great post. I would be curious to hear your take on Richardson.

 

[Yxes1122]

In college? Jones is the only one of that group with sub 65% career completion in college. What’s your threshold as a GM?

It you equate accuracy with completion percentage we are speaking different languages.

Baker Mayfield was a statistically accurate QB and has been a journeyman at best in the NFL.

I would say accuracy can only be observed by watching the games and trying to understand why a QB placed a ball where he did. Matt Waldman is a fantastic resource at breaking down scouting for accuracy vs statistical accuracy, and I believe in his criteria.

Every one of the QBs I mentioned were “Area Code” accurate QBs in college. This can appear good in terms of completion percentage, but often times it doesn’t translate well to the NFL where windows are smaller.

For the record, I was extremely high on Levis in 2021, and soured on him the more I watched over the summer.

The reason I soured on him was because he often throws passes that force his WR to adjust back to the ball on inbreaking route concepts. Watch enough games and this is a consistent problem with his game. Keep watching and you continue to see shaky placement on multiple different routes, especially when the play extends longer than his initial 1st or 2nd read. (Carson Wentz also struggled with this.)

In college it can work out when your throwing to WRs who are wide open by NFL standards. It doesn’t work in the NFL—forcing coaches to over scheme to compensate for this deficiency. As we’ve seen with Daniel Jones, Wentz, and Trubisky—and Wilson and Darnold to a much lesser extent.

I would say this is a trait I don’t see fixed after following the draft religiously for 15 years. It’s a function of mechanical issues and not recognizing the leverage of the play quick enough/executing fast enough.

If we want to talk nuances, sure, these guys all play the position differently. No 2 prospects are the same. But in broad strokes, all of them are generally accurate QBs. Not pinpoint. Which to me, is an indicator of issues in the NFL, and not worthy of the draft position.

 

[AgentDib]

I've written a bunch on Richardson in other threads but I like him. First choice would still be trading down if another team liked him more, but if we stayed put and took him at #5 I would be fine with it.

I still agree with my opinion after the combine below.

Richardson is definitely still a real option at #5.

The modern preference towards mobile QBs is based on the thought that they give you two chances. When Richardson drops back to pass, you have your first chance. Hopefully a receiver gets open and the line holds up long enough for a completed pass. If that doesn't work as planned, then with a QB like Richardson you get your second chance. Now you have a 244lb 4.4 RB carrying the ball with the best explosive numbers in combine history for a QB. Those second chances turn some of your third and longs into first downs, and the thinking is that second chance compensates for a lot of problems.

Matt Ryan with Indy last year is an example for why teams want mobility. He was still able to throw accurately when given a pocket and an open receiver last year, and his completion rate was actually better than his career average. It was a train wreck though because when that first chance didn't work out there was no backup plan and he was getting sacked or throwing the ball away. His lack of mobility led to 15 fumbles which killed their offense last year.

Personally, I much prefer Stroud but I also acknowledge that he's the ideal QB prototype from 2005 rather than the 2023 NFL viewpoint.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

It you equate accuracy with completion percentage we are speaking different languages.

Baker Mayfield was a statistically accurate QB and has been a journeyman at best in the NFL.

I would say accuracy can only be observed by watching the games and trying to understand why a QB placed a ball where he did. Matt Waldman is a fantastic resource at breaking down scouting for accuracy vs statistical accuracy, and I believe in his criteria.

Every one of the QBs I mentioned were “Area Code” accurate QBs in college. This can appear good in terms of completion percentage, but often times it doesn’t translate well to the NFL where windows are smaller.

For the record, I was extremely high on Levis in 2021, and soured on him the more I watched over the summer.

The reason I soured on him was because he often throws passes that force his WR to adjust back to the ball on inbreaking route concepts. Watch enough games and this is a consistent problem with his game. Keep watching and you continue to see shaky placement on multiple different routes, especially when the play extends longer than his initial 1st or 2nd read. (Carson Wentz also struggled with this.)

In college it can work out when your throwing to WRs who are wide open by NFL standards. It doesn’t work in the NFL—forcing coaches to over scheme to compensate for this deficiency. As we’ve seen with Daniel Jones, Wentz, and Trubisky—and Wilson and Darnold to a much lesser extent.

I would say this is a trait I don’t see fixed after following the draft religiously for 15 years. It’s a function of mechanical issues and not recognizing the leverage of the play quick enough/executing fast enough.

If we want to talk nuances, sure, these guys all play the position differently. No 2 prospects are the same. But in broad strokes, all of them are generally accurate QBs. Not pinpoint. Which to me, is an indicator of issues in the NFL, and not worthy of the draft position.

Thanks, I’ll have to look into Waldman. If that stat is truly predictive, I’d think front offices must include it in evaluations.

With this framing, do you rate Stroud high? Seems like he is the pinpoint accurate guy in this bunch.

 

[kidhawk]

I like Levis and think he’s got a good shot of being successful at the NFL level but it’s crazy how fast one anonymous post can spread a rumor like this. No media anonymous sources or anything just one anonymous Reddit post. Crazy.

 

[Yxes1122]

Thanks, I’ll have to look into Waldman. If that stat is truly predictive, I’d think front offices must include it in evaluations.

With this framing, do you rate Stroud high? Seems like he is the pinpoint accurate guy in this bunch.

Agree. He’s the most accurate QB in this class and if I was Scott Fitterer, I’d draft Stroud.

In many ways, I think Stroud plays the position like Geno Smith, but with a better arm. Stroud is such a mechanically precise QB and he maintains his accuracy off platform better than Geno. (I think Geno is more comfortable in a muddy pocket though.)

But Strouds placement really is consistently beautiful.

That said, my personal preference in terms of QB style, weights offscript playmaking and improvisation higher than onscript playmaking. So if I think 2 QBs are close in terms of grade, I will favor the prospect with better off script playmaking.

So I have Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young over CJ Stroud.

But Stroud is one of the 6 players I’d be happy with at Pick 5.

 

[James in PA]

I've said all along that I don't get all of the hate surrounding Levis. if anybody should hate him, it should be me because I hate mayonnaise. But I think he's got a chance to be a good NFL quarterback.

 

[Appyhawk]

There's plenty of throws to go around in the offseason and training camp, and then to your point very few throws available once the season gets rolling. Technical development can still happen in throwing sessions and classroom time is probably most valuable at QB. There are lots of QBs who developed largely on the bench, including of course Geno here.

It is a problem to fit in live fire reps, especially with how few padded practices there are lately. However, as padded practices continue to decrease then evaluations will need to be done without them anyway. Walkthroughs, how they perform on the whiteboard, and throwing sessions will need to be enough to evaluate a single young player, so I don't see why you couldn't do the same with multiple.

At the end of the day, until the next CBA and any potential changes to the rookie pool allocations, there is such a discrepancy between free market QB prices and rookie QB prices that drafting QBs seems like an obvious strategy that anybody without a cheap young QB should be leaning into.

Backup QBs get all the scout team and practice team snaps. #2 QB usually gets snaps with the 1s during the week too.

 

[knownone]

Levis is the best QB prospect in the draft. However, I doubt he goes number one because Young and Stroud carry less risk.

 

[therealjohncarlson]

I like Levis and think he’s got a good shot of being successful at the NFL level but it’s crazy how fast one anonymous post can spread a rumor like this. No media anonymous sources or anything just one anonymous Reddit post. Crazy.

But is that why? Ill I've read is that people are assuming thats why.

 

[kidhawk]

But is that why? Ill I've read is that people are assuming thats why.

From what I've read the only source is that anonymous reddit post. There don't seem to be any media mentions of any other type of confirmations or anything like that. I could have missed something, but I haven't seen or heard anyone credible saying that there is any other basis for it.

 

[bileever]

But is that why? Ill I've read is that people are assuming thats why.

Yes, most news outlets, including ESPN and the Athletic are saying that it's all based on that one anonymous Reddit post.

 

[SonicHawk]

Mostly true statement (NY had Eli), but how does that relate to lessons learned from these prospects?

From what I remember only Jones was considered a reach, maybe Trubisky.

I think Wilson still has a decent chance of being a serviceable NFL QB. He took too many risks in college and also the NFL so far. The majority of his lowlight plays are him throwing across his body or without his feet planted.

Darnold is another guy who isn't as bad as his resume so far. The NFL game is tough and the Jets suck.

Trubisky... that was a head scratcher. A one season starter at UNC. Seemed like an obvious bust.

I'm sure we'll look back at this QB draft class as a bunch of busts too, but really, it's a bit of a crapshoot. It's more that you get lucky with a guy than you mess up.

 

[Hawkinaz]

My guess is the person who put the rumor on Reddit is in the sports book business, Vegas saw the opportunity to win some money back from the bath they are going to take with the intial line on Bryce Young which was around +450 it is presently -1600 which is as close to a sure bet you can get. the odds of the sun coming up tomorrow is probably -2000

 

[therealjohncarlson]

From what I've read the only source is that anonymous reddit post. There don't seem to be any media mentions of any other type of confirmations or anything like that. I could have missed something, but I haven't seen or heard anyone credible saying that there is any other basis for it.

Could it not be due to an inside source thats going around inner circles that the public isn’t privy to?

 

[kidhawk]

Could it not be due to an inside source thats going around inner circles that the public isn’t privy to?

sure it "could" be, but have you seen many times a singular anonymous post on a message board had the right information but nobody was willing to anonymously take it to any major journalists or media outlets? I say the odds are REALLY SLIM that the post is anything more than someone posting something randomly on a board. Even if it happens to be true, it's highly unlikely.