The Panthers are our toughest matchup of the year. Even if we win this game, this team, both in style and personnel, is our toughest test.
On defense, they love to crowd the line and come from anywhere with the blitz. They want to make the pass play 2.5 seconds or less, and they use pressure and a secondary thinking routes that take 2.5 seconds to create mistakes. Passing from tight formations and sets only plays into their defense's hands if the QB is doing a traditional dropback and see who is open type play, if you are going to pass from a run set vs these guys you better have a very specific plan for one route that will beat pressure, there won't be time to find a second from the pocket.
I expect a lot of spread looks vs the Panthers. Running from the spread is not easy vs this team, their big guys up front love to get into a double team and just grab both guys on the double team to free up the backers to be in the gaps. The backrs get all the glory, but up front is where the Panthers do the dirty work to be good run stoppers.
Spread offense will force the Panthers to get away from what they want to do to confuse the QB. I'm not saying they can't defend it, but spread will iso our two superior slot WRs on their weakest links, and if we want to run from the spread later in the game, getting Kuechly to shade toward those slot WRs is vital.
Spread looks will also prevent the corners from camping on routes. And if the Panthers are silly enough to insist on blitzing vs a spread offense, Russ has made his hay vs that the last 8 weeks.
I think another defensive weakness the Panthers have is over pursuit. Especially in big games vs physical teams, they show a tendency to be so intent on delivering physicality that they over pursue fakes.
On Offense, the Panthers are built to give us fits. Cam may have poor mechanics, but they don't bite him in the ass near as often as they should, the guy is just plain country strong. He makes throws other QBs can't make while stepping backwards. He can put an 18 yard out on a rope with bad mechanics. I don't think he is a great touch passer on the short stuff, his delivery is kind of slow enough for the D to pick up where he is looking, but him being a dual threat with his legs pretty much makes up for that. Cary Williams isn't the guy handing out engraved invitations to Ginn now, so they may not complete the bombs to him down that left sideline, but they will try to.
And pass rushing Cam is difficult, teams have to ask if they spy or if they mush rush the middle and only send one guy right at him. It has to be a dozen times this year I saw a very good move by a DE to beat the LT to the inside and Kam just takes off and runs for a big gain. In fact, the way Cam keeps track of a pass rusher on his blind side fells just like the way Russ keeps track of the DE on a zone read run. If the rusher goes inside, Cam goes outside. If the rusher goes outside, Cam steps up inside his rush. And then runs or throws. It looks like years of running the zone read run game is just instinctively a part of his passing game.
And the worst matchup for us, tight end. it will be up to Earl to stop some of the seam routes. We like to run hook zones with LBs and Kam, and there is a hole in our cover 3 between that hook zone and Earl's area in the middle of the field, and Cam is very good at that pass. I expect them to run some all go, 4 go stuff to get Earl to shade the slot guy running to the deep middle to free up that TE route.
And vs the run game, this team more than any other can get the 100 yd rusher no one has been able to get until now. Having to keep an eye on Cam keeping it and going around the corner keeps LBs from jumping gaps, and gives their RB an added chance to get into the 2nd level.
All in all, I can see why the oddsmakers are giving them the home field advantage and not much else. It is not difficult to see where each team can take advantage of the other, but when you add them up both teams end up feeling very squarely matched.
My biggest wild card for this game is how Seattle responds to Carolina's attempt to make this game almost all about physicality. Carolina seems to crave the baddest dog on the block label, and barking about being the baddest dog all game long. If Seattle can ignore that noise and just play hardnosed ball, it will turn that tendency of Carolina's into a negative. Three years ago that tendency cost Carolina the SF game, IMO, and I don't see that it has really diminished since. They are definitely a better team than 3 years ago, but they want to announce their presence so badly that it can be used against them.
In my opinion, Barring the odd, like severe wind and rain, I think this will be a game full of big plays for both teams. Carolina will not dink and dunk us to death, Cam will give Earl and Co looks at real NFL passes. We might even get our hands on a couple. Carolina will also exploit the deep holes in cover 3. We will use spread to minimize their ability to disguise the rush, and an inside out pass attack that forces them to devote resources to stopping our slot WRs, mixed with misdirection deep shots and a run game more about keeping them honest than trying to punish them with the run.
The homer in me says this game is one we win. The logical in me says this is an overtime game that goes either way.
