How I think this game will play out.

[hawk45]

The environment for Cam to implode feels less likely to me.

Not only has he shown this year he can close out games, but when was the last time our defense really bludgeoned an opposing QB into submission?

We used to make sub par QBs pee their pants and HOF QBs look mortal. We are still a very, very, very good defense but we haven't really reduced a so-so QB to a pile of goo let alone one playing as well as Cam.

I don't discount that Cam's internal pressure will be elevated in the playoffs, but if we tap into that I see it as more limiting their scoring while our offense gets on the board if it happens. I don't really see us getting picks or fumbles.

Seems just as likely Russ will come out with the yips early. I don't doubt him at the end of games but we have seen him really struggle early in the playoffs. The Saints game (weather), the Niner CC (no weather), the Packer game (weather), and the Patriots in the superbowl.

If the argument here around QBs is that playoff football is so different that argument seems to me to cut both ways.

 

[bigskydoc]

Keep Cam in the pocket and make him beat us with his arm. Yes he IS capable of beating teams with his arm, and he will rack up passing yards if we do this. Who cares. He won't be able to do enough with his arm if our A offense shows up. He will have long, clock draining drives that end with field goals. If we let him escape the pocket and start accumulating yards with his legs, the secondary will have to pull in to stop it and suddenly those short gains on the seam route will turn into big gains. That is our Achille's heel and it would put us into a shootout which is about a 50-50 proposition. . Pressure Cam symmetrically without worrying too much about sacks, just get him off his game a bit. Our D-line is built to do this in their sleep. Hold them under 150 yards rushing and 350 passing and we likely win this.

Offensively, we simply can't afford another outing like last week. I don't see us winning this one with 10 points. If Carolina stays honest and blitzes when they show blitz, Russ should eat them alive just like he did Zona. It doesn't really matter where you bring the pressure from. If Russ senses it, he will make you pay. I do think Carolina matches up better against our short, quick blitz beaters than Zona, but they are still susceptible. However, if Carolina disguises the blitz or shows it and doesn't bring it, our offense will likely struggle. We just don't do well with the post-snap adjustments.

We will need a balanced, up-tempo attack. Like Cam, Wilson will need to make plays with his legs in this game. Has Lynch ever gone off against Carolina? Seems like he only gets 60-80 yards tops, and it seems that Wilson usually comes out with more yards than Lynch. However, we don't need Lynch to produce to win, we just need him to be a threat. Keep pounding with Lynch and this will keep Keuchly and Davis from cheating towards those short-intermediate routes that we will need to win.

Ultimately, I think it comes down to a close game decided by turnovers and field position. Special teams will be key on the latter, and I think it is an area where we have a definite edge. I don't see us testing the middle of the field, so a repeat of Kearse's performance from last year's NFCCG is unlikely. It's pretty rare to see Russ put up a stinker two weeks in a row, so hopefully he has it out of his system. Michael is overdue for a fumble, so hopefully the coaches remind him of ball security this week.

Ultimately, I see us edging them 20-16 on the back of an efficient passing attack by Russ who nets fewer passing and rushing yards than Cam.

- bsd

 

[NFSeahawks]

I honestly don't think either team has an advantage, its a 50/50 coin flip to who wins the game.

Seattle's inability to hold teams from driving down the field at the end of the game is still a concern and could be their downfall.

 

[rideaducati]

The environment for Cam to implode feels less likely to me.

Not only has he shown this year he can close out games, but when was the last time our defense really bludgeoned an opposing QB into submission?

We used to make sub par QBs pee their pants and HOF QBs look mortal. We are still a very, very, very good defense but we haven't really reduced a so-so QB to a pile of goo let alone one playing as well as Cam.

I don't discount that Cam's internal pressure will be elevated in the playoffs, but if we tap into that I see it as more limiting their scoring while our offense gets on the board if it happens. I don't really see us getting picks or fumbles.

Seems just as likely Russ will come out with the yips early. I don't doubt him at the end of games but we have seen him really struggle early in the playoffs. The Saints game (weather), the Niner CC (no weather), the Packer game (weather), and the Patriots in the superbowl.

If the argument here around QBs is that playoff football is so different that argument seems to me to cut both ways.

Palmer looked pretty bad against the Seahawks just a couple weeks ago after the Seahawks got their ish together. Russell looked pretty good against that defense too. The Seahawks are playing better on both sides of the ball. They also have their mojo back.

 

[StoneCold]

Nice write up, but I don't think this game is going to be close. The Seahawks are much better than they were last time these teams played and Carolina is worse. Seahawks win by three scores.

Quoted for posterity

Posterity is all you'll have left on Sunday evening.

I don't use my posterity at all during the game. Too much of a nervous Nellie to sit. So I do have a goodly amount afterwards.

 

[Largent80]

This reminds me of SB 48 right before. Except that game is played. I'm actually expecting the Hawks to kick their asses handily.

 

[sam1313]

Nice write up, but I don't think this game is going to be close. The Seahawks are much better than they were last time these teams played and Carolina is worse. Seahawks win by three scores.

Never a truer word spoke.

No disrespect intended Peaches, but didn't you say the same thing last week? I actually think you are more likely to be right this week, but I hadn't seen a 10-9 debacle coming last week either....

 

[hawk45]

@rideaducati, the AZ game is absolutely the game I look at when I want to feel good about us frustrating a top-tier QB and coming in with an aggressive offensive gameplan. Although we won't be able to let the dogs fully loose against Cam unless we want to watch him run for days, so we're just not going to see him as uncomfortable as Palmer was back there.

As bigskydoc says, keep him in the pocket, know that he is going to make plays with his arm but hope you can somewhat contain those plays with your secondary, keep pace with your own offense, and stuff their runs.

I think as a fan I can handle a close game, but if we come out with a ball control approach and don't show what our passing offense can be, that's the one scenario that'll have me pretty frustrated and disappointed in our coaching staff. The other disappointing scenario is if Wilson is way off early. Those situations drain years off my life.

 

[rideaducati]

@rideaducati, the AZ game is absolutely the game I look at when I want to feel good about us frustrating a top-tier QB and coming in with an aggressive offensive gameplan. Although we won't be able to let the dogs fully loose against Cam unless we want to watch him run for days, so we're just not going to see him as uncomfortable as Palmer was back there.

As bigskydoc says, keep him in the pocket, know that he is going to make plays with his arm but hope you can somewhat contain those plays with your secondary, keep pace with your own offense, and stuff their runs.

I think as a fan I can handle a close game, but if we come out with a ball control approach and don't show what our passing offense can be, that's the one scenario that'll have me pretty frustrated and disappointed in our coaching staff. The other disappointing scenario is if Wilson is way off early. Those situations drain years off my life.

I just don't see the Seahawks coming out in ball control mode. They haven't done that in weeks and even when they should have last week, they came out throwing deep. We have also seen more blitzing which could mean Bruce and/or KJ having an impactful game. Those two are big enough and fast enough to get to Cam.

 

[AROS]

I think as a fan I can handle a close game, but if we come out with a ball control approach and don't show what our passing offense can be, that's the one scenario that'll have me pretty frustrated and disappointed in our coaching staff. The other disappointing scenario is if Wilson is way off early. Those situations drain years off my life.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[hawk45]

I just don't see the Seahawks coming out in ball control mode. They haven't done that in weeks and even when they should have last week, they came out throwing deep. We have also seen more blitzing which could mean Bruce and/or KJ having an impactful game. Those two are big enough and fast enough to get to Cam.

Good points. If I may move the goalposts a little, it's not quite just not being ball control, it's spreading the field and letting Wilson use the middle instead of the passing attack consisting of deep shots off of play action. Against the backup corners I can see a case for some play action actually, but I want the dynamic, Wilson-at-the-helm, almost pass to set up the run offense we have seen. I think you may be right though that they won't eschew their best weapons as they have, and that we'll get what we want. The more you talk the better I feel certainly.

The blitzing point is an interesting one. That is one way we can make Cam uncomfortable without leaving running lanes, but Cam, like Wilson, has been good against the blitz this year. 10 TDs and 3 INTs when facing 5 or more rushers. Our slot corner and LBs will have to be really on point there, since I feel our secondary should be the best secondary he has faced the way they are playing currently.

 

[RichNhansom]

A couple quick thoughts.

I'm a little worried about how much that weather and the way the last game played out might effect the players on Sunday. It seems like that game had to be extremely exhausting. Hopefully I am just being a nervous Nelly.

As much as I am nervous though I do like that we had to fight as hard as we did and there shouldn't be anyway we are over confident based on that game. That experience could help to get this team playing at peak levels.

I am pulling towards leaning on Jackson this week. Even if Lynch is back I worry about rust and like pointed out above, he has never really had a great game against these guys. Michael also like pointed out above, is due for a fumble and the Panthers LB's love to strip the ball.

Using Jackson as a RB would effectively be kind of a ruse. We know he is not going to break any big runs and likely will be held mostly in check but I don't expect any of our RB's to have a big game against them so it might not be much of a loss anyway. What I do think is important is to take advantage of their aggressiveness and try and get the LB's out of position. Using Jackson consistently will prevent showing our hands for screens and dump offs which are much more predictable when he comes off the bench. He also gives us the best option in the blocking department. If we do lean on the passing game which I think is a must this week, Jackson gives us multiple options for pass protection, dump offs and screen plays without throwing up red flags to the opponents defense.

I do think the loss at the beginning of the year works in our favor. It is hard to beat a good team twice in one year. look at last week for example or the Panthers match ups against Atlanta this year or the Vikings GB games this year. We will have a slight edge of revenge going for us.

 

[hawknation2015]

I'm a little worried about how much that weather and the way the last game played out might effect the players on Sunday.

Me too . . . mentally/physically, I think it took a lot out of them.

 

[rideaducati]

I'm a little worried about how much that weather and the way the last game played out might effect the players on Sunday.

Me too . . . mentally/physically, I think it took a lot out of them.

Have no fear, Russell will be handing out miracle water. That fixes everything.

 

[bigskydoc]

I don't think we will need to blitz much. Just push the pocket with four to get a little pressure on Cam and disrupt his timing. He is hard to bring down and blitzing him leaves too much space open for him to connect to Olsen over the middle. If you don't keep a pocket tight around him, he will find the hole and burn you with his legs.

-bsd

 

[Scottemojo]

I don't think we will need to blitz much. Just push the pocket with four to get a little pressure on Cam and disrupt his timing. He is hard to bring down and blitzing him leaves too much space open for him to connect to Olsen over the middle. If you don't keep a pocket tight around him, he will find the hole and burn you with his legs.

-bsd

Agreed.

I really want to see a bunch from Frank Clark. I like him for 3rd down to shrink the pocket from the inside out.

Also, Bennett. He is a terror come playoff time.

 

[rideaducati]

Nice write up, but I don't think this game is going to be close. The Seahawks are much better than they were last time these teams played and Carolina is worse. Seahawks win by three scores.

Never a truer word spoke.

No disrespect intended Peaches, but didn't you say the same thing last week? I actually think you are more likely to be right this week, but I hadn't seen a 10-9 debacle coming last week either....

In the end, the win is all that matters.

If being wrong hurt, I bet there would be a LOT less smack talk...nobody wants LESS smack talk.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

I've been going back and forth on this since Sunday, and honestly I don't know what I think.

If Pete lets the offense play loose and fast like we did in Arizona? Then we win by 14. If Pete goes back to the run the clock down to 2 seconds every play tentative ball control safe trust the defense that lost us 5 of 6 games? Then we lose.

And that's it, I'm scared to death that the Minnesota games was foreshadowing conservative Pete's approach to the playoffs. I HOPE not, that it was just the gameplan for the cold.

I think that was a combination of things. Personnel groups were slow onto the field, and off. Everything was in slow motion. I don't expect any of that. Shortening the game was the objective of both teams Sunday.......

How much different could the game been last Sunday if Russ is able to complete that deep TD to Doug and another that would've been a long gainer to NoE? I think the weather and Minny playing the short game on D because of it may have forced Pete and Bevell to regress to what we saw the first half of the season. Forecast for Charlotte has held at mid-40s and some sun for the last 3 days which bodes well for the spread Scott believes will be most effective vs. Carolina.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

I don't think we will need to blitz much. Just push the pocket with four to get a little pressure on Cam and disrupt his timing. He is hard to bring down and blitzing him leaves too much space open for him to connect to Olsen over the middle. If you don't keep a pocket tight around him, he will find the hole and burn you with his legs.

-bsd

Agreed.

I really want to see a bunch from Frank Clark. I like him for 3rd down to shrink the pocket from the inside out.

Also, Bennett. He is a terror come playoff time.

Based on the Minny game, I'm guessing Carolina focuses heavily on Bennett this week and Cliff and Clark benefit greatly as a result.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

One key to me is Lewis playing fairly well against Star in the middle so Russ has a pocket to step up into.