Rat
Well-known member
I like to give my honest opinions, while acknowledging that I'm nowhere near an expert and am wrong a LOT. I've never been one who wasn't willing to eat crow.
How do you judge our picks on draft day?
- Thread starter JayhawkMike
- Start date
I look at the draft class as a whole and based my initial thoughts at how well it addresses the teams greatest needs.
For example, if a DE, OT, and LB are our first 3-4 picks I'll be pretty happy. It is fun when (not often) they do pick someone you had your eye on. that happened to me when Kam Chancellor and DK Metcalf were picked and I was super stoked.
I'm much more patient than other fans, I realize it takes 2-3 years to properly judge a draft pick.
For example, if a DE, OT, and LB are our first 3-4 picks I'll be pretty happy. It is fun when (not often) they do pick someone you had your eye on. that happened to me when Kam Chancellor and DK Metcalf were picked and I was super stoked.
I'm much more patient than other fans, I realize it takes 2-3 years to properly judge a draft pick.
You cannot judge/grade a draft class until after 3-or-4 years.
I prefer 4 years because you can see what their 2nd contracts look like, or if they even received a 2nd contract to be totally thorough. But you can generally tell by year 3.
Everyone should be reviewing the Seahawks 2018 draft class as we speak.
#27 Rashaad Penny - Oft injured, yet to have a 1k yard season. Horrible value when taking a RB in the 1st.
#79 Rasheem Green - underachieving D-Lineman.
#120 Will Dissly - Oft injured, now overpaid TE.
#141 Shaqueem Griffin - flamed out special teamer.
#149 Michael Dickson - A great punter.
#168 Jamarco Jones - A bad backup, never developed.
#186 Jacob Martin - Their best pick, traded him for a 1 yr rental of Clowney.
#220 Alex McGough - Took a shot on a backup QB and missed.
I prefer 4 years because you can see what their 2nd contracts look like, or if they even received a 2nd contract to be totally thorough. But you can generally tell by year 3.
Everyone should be reviewing the Seahawks 2018 draft class as we speak.
#27 Rashaad Penny - Oft injured, yet to have a 1k yard season. Horrible value when taking a RB in the 1st.
#79 Rasheem Green - underachieving D-Lineman.
#120 Will Dissly - Oft injured, now overpaid TE.
#141 Shaqueem Griffin - flamed out special teamer.
#149 Michael Dickson - A great punter.
#168 Jamarco Jones - A bad backup, never developed.
#186 Jacob Martin - Their best pick, traded him for a 1 yr rental of Clowney.
#220 Alex McGough - Took a shot on a backup QB and missed.
JayhawkMike
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Thanks for the recap. Agree on your comments. Curious on the Jacob Martin comment. Was he the best pick Because we could trade him or because of his play? Looks like he’s a sold player for the Texans but not top tier.
TeamoftheCentury
Well-known member
This is a great discussion subject. Made me think today that if the Hawks draft a player I wanted, it's got a chance to end up successful. Ha, the arrogance. Actually, I think this board has a lot of great contribution, though I seriously doubt Schneider is combing our threads for answers. Lol
I'm going to start a new thread - pick 5 players you'd like to see the Hawks draft any one of them.
I'm going to start a new thread - pick 5 players you'd like to see the Hawks draft any one of them.
TwistedHusky
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WRs used to take a few years to blossom, even guys like Golden Tate took a year. Some now are coming in producing in Year 1 but it isn't a harbinger of doom like if your QB looks like crap in Year 1.
QBs should probably at least be flashing exceptional play immediately even if they make mistakes. In today's NFL, if your QB isn't shining in Year 1 and 2, they probably are not going to be star - and maybe even not a starter long-term.
RBs pretty much show it almost on Day 1, you notice those guys in the preseason
It would be nice to see the data though. What is the average hit rate per round and player value in same?
I suspect we would do better in the later rounds and worst in the early ones. Interestingly, in a redraft - some of our later round picks would be drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds...but I suspect if you plotted our success rate right now, it would be a downward slide from 2013 on - (worse if you plot missed slots due to bad trades and projected aggregate value), with a slight bump in the past few years due to guys like Metcalf, and a small bump in the Carson draft (getting a 7th that in a redraft would be a 2nd).
Not great though.
Whether we did well or not often becomes evident when/if you see guys flash in preseason. Most tomorrow's stars tend to show something even in those early games. Maybe not consistently but you will have flashes of greatness enough to know we might have a keeper. With less preseason games, and even less willingness to play players in preseason - it is harder to evaluate new guys. So this option might be less viable.
I would say you know in 2 years but you have a good inkling after 1. Waiting 3 or 4 is ridiculous. The only guy I have seen that takes that long to do anything or show anything might be Penny, and we don't know he is consistent yet - even though he flashed some great stuff even in Year 1 & 2. So he might be the exception.
You normally don't know anything after draft day though. That is just guesses based on predraft rankings which are generally inconsistent and sometimes even wildly inaccurate.
QBs should probably at least be flashing exceptional play immediately even if they make mistakes. In today's NFL, if your QB isn't shining in Year 1 and 2, they probably are not going to be star - and maybe even not a starter long-term.
RBs pretty much show it almost on Day 1, you notice those guys in the preseason
It would be nice to see the data though. What is the average hit rate per round and player value in same?
I suspect we would do better in the later rounds and worst in the early ones. Interestingly, in a redraft - some of our later round picks would be drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds...but I suspect if you plotted our success rate right now, it would be a downward slide from 2013 on - (worse if you plot missed slots due to bad trades and projected aggregate value), with a slight bump in the past few years due to guys like Metcalf, and a small bump in the Carson draft (getting a 7th that in a redraft would be a 2nd).
Not great though.
Whether we did well or not often becomes evident when/if you see guys flash in preseason. Most tomorrow's stars tend to show something even in those early games. Maybe not consistently but you will have flashes of greatness enough to know we might have a keeper. With less preseason games, and even less willingness to play players in preseason - it is harder to evaluate new guys. So this option might be less viable.
I would say you know in 2 years but you have a good inkling after 1. Waiting 3 or 4 is ridiculous. The only guy I have seen that takes that long to do anything or show anything might be Penny, and we don't know he is consistent yet - even though he flashed some great stuff even in Year 1 & 2. So he might be the exception.
You normally don't know anything after draft day though. That is just guesses based on predraft rankings which are generally inconsistent and sometimes even wildly inaccurate.
QuahHawk
Well-known member
Is Penny really a draft Bust? He had some injuries that set his back but he looks pretty elite when we saw him have one of the greatest multiple game stretch ever. 671 Yds with 6 TD's. This would average 2,281Yds and 20 TD's in a 17 Game season. I am not writing him off yet, we also didn't know that Carson was going to break out his rookie year and he has been stuck behind him when healthy.
Rasheem Green > Jacob Martin
