How do you judge our picks on draft day?

[JayhawkMike]

yes, I realize there are a few here that will say we cannot judge any pick for years and years. Or even until their careers are over.

others will say that just because the team picked the player it has to be the right pick. No matter what anybody says it is the correct pick regardless of player or position. Trust the front office

others will turn to the draftniks or a combination of several of them as to the quality and relative value of the players and judge whether a player was a good value for their draft position (could have taken later/fell to the team) and their quality as a player.

How do you judge our drafts?

 

[Ad Hawk]

The first and third are common and somewhat reasonable answers.

I've never heard someone say that the FO's picks are always right.

Saying the last part of #2, "trust the front office," coupled with #1 is also reasonable, especially given enough history with both Hawks and the league.

If you choose #3, you'd better have very good reasons and the drafniks you follow had better be near 100%, or you rightly get mocked for being out of touch. None of them really know what any FO is after; they're only rating players in a pre-NFL vacuum. Their boards and ratings are fairly irrelevant to overall player performance within a given system.

How do you judge, JHM?

 

[nwHawk]

Good question, and I appreciate the new topic.

I have to admit being an empty nester I spend way too much time reading and watching draft cut ups. Every year I have a pretty good feel for the players, and have won a couple .net draft day line ups. But it’s a crap shoot. There are always a bunch of prospects that I think have the stones to do well, but don’t. Likewise every year there’s a guy that I think nope, but that turns out pretty damn good. I’m sure everyone can relate.

Having said that, I am almost never shocked by any picks. I don’t get to attached to any player until the regular season starts. Some positions I judge looser. WRs typically don’t start peaking until year 3, but there are stars that break that mold. A player has to at least shows signs of life after a season. Some positions flash earlier. A guard, I expect to come in and show me something year one, even if I know he need to gain weight or strength.

Patience is important with young players.

 

[Chawker]

Just listen to what Mel Kiper says, and go with the opposite.

 

[Appyhawk]

During and after the draft I judge our picks based on how well we filled our greatest needs. After a couple years I judge the picks by which ones become impact players vs those that don't. I have been very pleasantly surprised by the level of success Brooks has achieved.

 

[AgentDib]

There's nothing wrong with having an immediate opinion based on what you think of the prospects and team needs. Draft day grades that you give based on your own opinions are just another way of presenting that opinion. If somebody is going to second guess the ability to give an opinion on an internet forum then what exactly are we all discussing here?

Grading the draft based on where the draftniks thinks prospects should go is the part that doesn't make sense. Teams spend a lot of time and money on their own scouting department and personnel evaluators in order to come up with a list that is different than the consensus from random people on the internet. If anything, you should criticize a team when it's list ends up the same as one they could have just paid a few bucks for off some website.

Of course your confidence level about a drafted player's worthiness should increase every year.
10% confidence - Draft day
25% confidence - Game 1
50% confidence - Season 2
70% confidence - Season 3
80% confidence - Season 4
85% confidence - Season 5
...
99% confidence - Retirement

 

[Maelstrom787]

First, I start by acknowledging straight out that media boards are largely inaccurate, and there is a BOATLOAD of information that I am simply not privy to.

With that said, I'm limited in how accurately I can judge things. I know this and acknowledge it.

Take Jordyn Brooks for instance. He wasn't on my radar, but some extremely trusted sources speaking with knowledge of OTHER teams plans confirmed that his value was right about where he was taken.

So, take in all the information possible, and compare it to where the prospect is actually taken, to understand what a prospects actual value is/was. The big boards are hogwash. Guesswork by amateurs. They're meaningless. Take in real reports coupled with what has really happened, and forget the media rankings.

Now in terms of evaluating picks, trades, and drafts: Try to see the overall vision of the class, and determine whether or not you can see where they're going with it.

People seem to get angry when something is done that they themselves wouldn't have done. That's human nature. People often naturally dislike what they don't understand. I get that, but it's not a good basis on which to judge a pick or a draft. It just doesn't logically track.

So, if I criticize a pick, I need to either:

- Disagree from a team building vision standpoint (suboptimal position, not a future building block, etc.)

- Disagree based on how I personally grade the prospect, based on tape and measurables

- Question the value of the selection if there is nothing to suggest the player was valued significantly higher than the shitty media big boards had them

...or a mixture of all 3. Those are the only fair criticisms that fans like us could have. The rest is either logical fallacy or sour grapes.

 

[xray]

I'm seldom right on; so I guess I suck .

 

[scutterhawk]

yes, I realize there are a few here that will say we cannot judge any pick for years and years. Or even until their careers are over.

others will say that just because the team picked the player it has to be the right pick. No matter what anybody says it is the correct pick regardless of player or position. Trust the front office

others will turn to the draftniks or a combination of several of them as to the quality and relative value of the players and judge whether a player was a good value for their draft position (could have taken later/fell to the team) and their quality as a player.

How do you judge our drafts?

I don't go by any fans here nor do I go off of any of the Draftnicks out there, I usually do a U-TUBE sweep of the player that's been chosen, and see/gauge for myself the pick.
Too many variables, too many Scouting expert consensus for ANY layman on here to dismiss or scoff at.

 

[GemCity]

I don't go by any fans here nor do I go off of any of the Draftnicks out there, I usually do a U-TUBE sweep of the player that's been chosen, and see/gauge for myself the pick.
Too many variables, too many Scouting expert consensus for ANY layman on here to dismiss or scoff at.

Same.

I’ve felt confident about some presumptions such as the LJ and Eskridge (over Creed/Myers) picks but, there’s less risk in criticism.

As strange as this may sound, I’m not always in favor of drafting from a needs basis in comparison to drafting the best player available. There’s arguments for and against both approaches for sure.

Every fan base complains about the draft(s). Just gotta remind yourself that it’s a crap shoot…

 

[Maelstrom787]

Same.

I’ve felt confident about some presumptions such as the LJ and Eskridge (over Creed/Myers) picks but, there’s less risk in criticism.

As strange as this may sound, I’m not always in favor of drafting from a needs basis in comparison to drafting the best player available. There’s arguments for and against both approaches for sure.

Every fan base complains about the draft(s). Just gotta remind yourself that it’s a crap shoot…

There's a time and a place for both. Need and caliber need to be weighted properly, or else you see... well, LJ Collier.

 

[Jac]

If a player isn't described as physically limited in some way or the opposite (a raw development prospect), then I'm pretty excited to see what they can do.

 

[FrodosFinger]

Even if Hutchinson falls to 9 and we draft him some fools in here will be like “wtf who is this guy”

 

[SoulfishHawk]

yep. "You didn't pick who I WANTED, YOU SUCK!!!"


dot net

 

[oldhawkfan]

I like to sit back and watch. If they pick players that check needs then fine. I don’t get too high or too low on draft picks. We have plenty of time to form opinions on draftees from mini camps, training camps and games.

I always like to remind myself of one thing……….
Aaron Curry was a consensus “safest pick in the draft”.

If that doesn’t make sense, look up all the draft busts and compare them to Undrafted guys who became stars.

The draft is like Christmas morning. Some of them look good all wrapped up under the tree. The bigger ones aren’t always the best ones. Some break as soon as you start playing with them.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

No one knows until the season starts and we start seeing these players on the field against starting competition.

No one knew who Richard Sherman was, Bobby Wagner, Kam, hell even half of Hawk fans still wanted Matt Flynn to start when Russell was named the starter. "Remember that one game in Green Bay when he threw for 400 yards and 4 TD's!"

So while I'll be happy we addressed positions of need (hopefully)? I can't be certain at all that we drafted the right players. No team or fan can.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Yep, hard to say for a couple years if a draft was solid or not.

 

[pittpnthrs]

I look for needs and holes on the team and usually shake my head when they arent addressed. This year there are so many holes that its going to be hard for the FO to upset me as much as they usually do.

 

[FattyKnuckle]

There's nothing wrong with having an immediate opinion based on what you think of the prospects and team needs. Draft day grades that you give based on your own opinions are just another way of presenting that opinion. If somebody is going to second guess the ability to give an opinion on an internet forum then what exactly are we all discussing here?

Grading the draft based on where the draftniks thinks prospects should go is the part that doesn't make sense. Teams spend a lot of time and money on their own scouting department and personnel evaluators in order to come up with a list that is different than the consensus from random people on the internet. If anything, you should criticize a team when it's list ends up the same as one they could have just paid a few bucks for off some website.

Of course your confidence level about a drafted player's worthiness should increase every year.
10% confidence - Draft day
25% confidence - Game 1
50% confidence - Season 2
70% confidence - Season 3
80% confidence - Season 4
85% confidence - Season 5
...
99% confidence - Retirement

If a FO does all their research with all their pros and makes the picks they are confident with, why would you criticize the team if it looks like a draft reporter’s list? Shouldn’t you rather, based on your previous sentence, give credit to the reporter for accurately predicting what the paid scouts and coach/GM were going to pick? Even if you’re one of the people that likes to call them mediots or sarcastically call them “experts”, we should admit when one of them does a good job. If for no other reason than congratulating a blind squirrel for finding a nut.

 

[sdog1981]

I used to be really into mock drafts and post-draft grades. The one thing I can tell you is bad teams with higher draft picks always get better draft grades post-draft. When they should always receive the worst grades.

I now always give the Jets an auto F for their drafts until further notice.

As for the past 10 years of Seahawks drafts, I only knew that Thomas and Okung would be pretty good and did not really know who these other dudes they drafted were. It did work out and taught me that these post-draft grades are just content with no real basis in fact.