How do you judge our picks on draft day?

[AgentDib]

If a FO does all their research with all their pros and makes the picks they are confident with, why would you criticize the team if it looks like a draft reporter’s list? Shouldn’t you rather, based on your previous sentence, give credit to the reporter for accurately predicting what the paid scouts and coach/GM were going to pick?

I would find it a near certainty that the team's personnel evaluators were either letting public consensus enter their evaluation, or sharing private information with draftniks. Either option contaminates both information sources so they can no longer be combined cleanly at the end.

Even the most thorough public draft analysis that consists of half a dozen smart guys working together ala PFN pales compared to a single NFL team. The Hawks have 20+ employees in our scouting department alone and they attend college games/combine/senior bowl/pro days in person. They get private medical information, conduct private interviews, and pay people to do private background checks. If Dane Brugler comes up with the same list as we do from his couch then there's a major problem somewhere.

 

[oldhawkfan]

No one knows until the season starts and we start seeing these players on the field against starting competition.

No one knew who Richard Sherman was, Bobby Wagner, Kam, hell even half of Hawk fans still wanted Matt Flynn to start when Russell was named the starter. "Remember that one game in Green Bay when he threw for 400 yards and 4 TD's!"

So while I'll be happy we addressed positions of need (hopefully)? I can't be certain at all that we drafted the right players. No team or fan can.

I remember thinking specifically upon seeing 5th round draft pick Richard Sherman, "theres a camp body we will never hear from again after camp." I also had a similar thought when he stepped in as an injury replacement during his rookie season. This is obviously why I work at my job and not as an NFL scout.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I remember thinking specifically upon seeing 5th round draft pick Richard Sherman, "theres a camp body we will never hear from again after camp." I also had a similar thought when he stepped in as an injury replacement during his rookie season. This is obviously why I work at my job and not as an NFL scout.

I remember telling my buddy we screwed up bigtime in the 2012 draft by drafting Bobby Wagner and not Brock Oseweiler. Utah State! I didn't even know Utah State had a football program! This is ridiculous!

 

[Jville]

I remember thinking specifically upon seeing 5th round draft pick Richard Sherman, "theres a camp body we will never hear from again after camp." I also had a similar thought when he stepped in as an injury replacement during his rookie season. This is obviously why I work at my job and not as an NFL scout.

I love an honest post. I find it meaningful to point out that a singular scout (or fan) represents only one opinion or judgement. Where as the actual process includes many scouts and coaches and others engaged in consensuses building to construct a draft board and execute the draft.

That's why I keep a proper perspective about individual draft day judgements. Like most human endeavors these days, the draft process is a team process. No one individual can completely understand draft day anymore than the process of building an airliner or software network.

It takes a village.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I love an honest post. I find it meaningful to point out that a singular scout (or fan) represents only one opinion or judgement. Where as the actual process includes many scouts and coaches and others engaged in consensuses building to construct a draft board and execute the draft.

That's why I keep a proper perspective about individual draft day judgements. Like most human endeavors these days, the draft process is a team process. No one individual can completely understand draft day anymore than the process of building an airliner or software network.

It takes a village.

Every fan should be honest about the draft.

Unless you're WAY into college football, most of us have no idea who 95% of these players are, especially after the top 10 and big QB's have been drafted.

But we get caught up in the hype and talking heads we see before and during the draft declaring before the player has even have taken one meaningful NFL snap that it's the greatest pick ever, or worst.

 

[Appyhawk]

All I know is, despite my own poor record at predicting our picks, I'm more excited than usual about the draft this year. It's going to be loads of fun looking at our haul and trying to determine how it all fits together to improve our chances to be competitive right away, or if we have to wait for year after next to have high hopes again.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

No doubt. It's been a VERY long time since we had a pick in the top 10. Plus, two second rounders, and two 1st rounders next year.

 

[Ad Hawk]

Another problem is that there are 32 teams all looking at the same pool of athletes, and probably have similar tiers, even if some individual players fall differently. Teams may find a player who fits the team's scheme perfectly, but that player gets taken. The board then shifts to another player who wasn't rated as highly.

I cannot imagine how heartbreaking or exhilarating draft day can be our war-room, how many scouts' hopes are realized or dashed. The fans only know a bit of it.

 

[FattyKnuckle]

I would find it a near certainty that the team's personnel evaluators were either letting public consensus enter their evaluation, or sharing private information with draftniks. Either option contaminates both information sources so they can no longer be combined cleanly at the end.

Even the most thorough public draft analysis that consists of half a dozen smart guys working together ala PFN pales compared to a single NFL team. The Hawks have 20+ employees in our scouting department alone and they attend college games/combine/senior bowl/pro days in person. They get private medical information, conduct private interviews, and pay people to do private background checks. If Dane Brugler comes up with the same list as we do from his couch then there's a major problem somewhere.

Again you are contradicting yourself and would rather blame the team than give any credit to a reporter.

 

[JayhawkMike]

Another problem is that there are 32 teams all looking at the same pool of athletes, and probably have similar tiers, even if some individual players fall differently. Teams may find a player who fits the team's scheme perfectly, but that player gets taken. The board then shifts to another player who wasn't rated as highly.

I cannot imagine how heartbreaking or exhilarating draft day can be our war-room, how many scouts' hopes are realized or dashed. The fans only know a bit of it.

Serious questions. Do the Seahawks and other NFL teams really have that big of staff for scouting? I thought they’d have a few but would do a lot of subbing out to agencies getting the information.

 

[olyfan63]

I judge the draft based on whether the Hawks draft the particular player I think they gotta have.
2012 - My mock had Russell Wilson to Seattle in the 3rd round. Thus, "Great draft!"
2019 - My mock had Jonathan Taylor to Seattle in the 2nd. Hawks picked Jordyn Brooks. Thus, "Schitty draft!"
2022 - My mock has Desmond Ridder to the Hawks at #19 after a trade-down. TBD
(If we don't take Ridder at 19, Pittsburgh snags him at 20)

Then of course I learn about the pick and see if I can understand why the Hawks took him and the fit. The one pick that still has me scratching my head on draft day and a couple years later is LJ Collier. I liked Penny on draft day, but like most here, had all but given up on him when he went off the last 5 games.

 

[AgentDib]

Serious questions. Do the Seahawks and other NFL teams really have that big of staff for scouting? I thought they’d have a few but would do a lot of subbing out to agencies getting the information.

The average NFL scouting department has around 20 people. Ours might be a bit smaller as the website only lists 14 in the personnel department (with Hutch as a consultant), in addition to Carroll and Schneider. Not sure what Brian Eayrs is responsible for (job title of research analyst).

 

[m0ng0]

I just follow the picks and watch film on them after the fact.

Just because a player we passed on blows up and turns into a stud does not mean they would have done the same on our team. Coaching and camps and lots of practice can make a player. Like most people have already said it's a crapshoot and it depends on the coaches and players around these picks that can make the difference. Confidence is everything.

 

[OrangeGravy]

There's nothing wrong with having an immediate opinion based on what you think of the prospects and team needs. Draft day grades that you give based on your own opinions are just another way of presenting that opinion. If somebody is going to second guess the ability to give an opinion on an internet forum then what exactly are we all discussing here?

Grading the draft based on where the draftniks thinks prospects should go is the part that doesn't make sense. Teams spend a lot of time and money on their own scouting department and personnel evaluators in order to come up with a list that is different than the consensus from random people on the internet. If anything, you should criticize a team when it's list ends up the same as one they could have just paid a few bucks for off some website.

Of course your confidence level about a drafted player's worthiness should increase every year.
10% confidence - Draft day
25% confidence - Game 1
50% confidence - Season 2
70% confidence - Season 3
80% confidence - Season 4
85% confidence - Season 5
...
99% confidence - Retirement

The problem is, scenario 1 in your post doesn't exist. Scenario 1 is just Scenario 2 posters regurgitate as if it's Scenario 1. Posters latch to which ever internet genius said something 1 time that confirmed their personal emotional reaction they were having to their team not winning enough to satisfy them personally.

Fans don't watch enough film on players to have their own opinion. And even if they did, they wouldn't know what they're looking at. There might be 1% of the fan population that could do that adequately. Just like most things surrounding the loudest sentiment about a team amongst its fans, its just 1 big group think circle jerk of people parroting other people's opinions until it somehow turns into the popular narrative

 

[OrangeGravy]

Serious questions. Do the Seahawks and other NFL teams really have that big of staff for scouting? I thought they’d have a few but would do a lot of subbing out to agencies getting the information.

Teams aren't hiring outside agencies for anything like that. The process is too proprietary to have untrusted eyes/ears involved. They keep all that scouting info in-house. Any edge you can get

 

[Ad Hawk]

Teams aren't hiring outside agencies for anything like that. The process is too proprietary to have untrusted eyes/ears involved. They keep all that scouting info in-house. Any edge you can get

See the most recent press conference where Schneider thanks their scouting team, and discusses how some of the details about how they keep things under wrap.

 

[olyfan63]

--snip-- Fans don't watch enough film on players to have their own opinion. And even if they did, they wouldn't know what they're looking at. There might be 1% of the fan population that could do that adequately. Just like most things surrounding the loudest sentiment about a team amongst its fans, its just 1 big group think circle jerk of people parroting other people's opinions until it somehow turns into the popular narrative

There are a couple fan "film on players" scenarios that can have value. Hometown college team fans get to see players over a bunch of games, and opposing team players at least a few games. Football-savvy Husky and Cougar fans probably have a good idea about which players are "will be playing on Sundays" types, though certain not an exact science. The jury is still out on Dissly, BBK, and Gardner Minshew, for example, in terms of their NFL careers. EWU Eagles fans probably knew Cooper Kupp was special, but darned if he hasn't exceeded every reasonable expectation. Really, probably the only time this amounted to much is when Pete Carroll first started with the Seahawks he had a better feel for college talent, having seen and coached or coached against players the Hawks wound up drafting.

 

[AgentDib]

The problem is, scenario 1 in your post doesn't exist. Scenario 1 is just Scenario 2 posters regurgitate as if it's Scenario 1. Posters latch to which ever internet genius said something 1 time that confirmed their personal emotional reaction they were having to their team not winning enough to satisfy them personally.

Fans don't watch enough film on players to have their own opinion. And even if they did, they wouldn't know what they're looking at. There might be 1% of the fan population that could do that adequately. Just like most things surrounding the loudest sentiment about a team amongst its fans, its just 1 big group think circle jerk of people parroting other people's opinions until it somehow turns into the popular narrative

That's fair, but you could apply that argument to any other aspect of NFL fandom. Fan opinion on anything is an amalgamation of sources of dubious accuracy. The key is to keep your uncertainty bounds broad in recognition of those poor inputs and your conclusions restrained. Uncertainty should not prevent you from holding an opinion.

The justifications that surround opinions are what make them interesting to me. It's uninteresting to grade a pick based on somebody else's opinion, but I'm always interested in opinions if posters explain their reasoning.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

Teams aren't hiring outside agencies for anything like that. The process is too proprietary to have untrusted eyes/ears involved. They keep all that scouting info in-house. Any edge you can get

I’m sure teams develop their boards in-house, but there is an industry for prospect profiles.

McCloughan has talked openly about supplying his to multiple teams for the same draft. I can see the value in having a qualified outside opinion to balance against the in-house take.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

I just want everyone to have fun and no one to get hurt

I’ll reserve judgement on a particular player unless something is glaringly bizarre (ie huge red flag) for the information disparity discussed above.

What I hope to see is commitment to a clear strategy that fits the reality of the current roster.

Along with drafting players that fit your style of play and culture…
Are you in rebuild mode? Heavy on BPA
Are you a serious contender? Heavy on hole plugging.
Somewhere in between? Balance BPA at a position of need.

The last several years I felt like the team refused to acknowledge they weren’t a true contender. The 2017 reset was a study in half measures that would make Mike Ehrmantraut cry.