FAO 49ers fans

[SanDiego49er]

I wonder how much Aldon Smith played in the game, he seemed pretty irrelevant.

Hm...maybe Aldon Smith is the downfall of the 49ers.

They haven't won since Week 1 with him. The first game he was gone, they went on their winning streak. The game he comes back, they look like they did back in Weeks 2 and 3 with him.

He didn't have anything to do with that loss if you watched the game.

 

[RichNhansom]

Originally posted by 49erWay:
Maybe some of you guys are right.

Kaepernick can't play.

All those interceptions he threw against Carolina, tons of them, despicable.

No talent to read defenses or go through progressions with 3 to 5 defensive lineman hitting him every pass attempt, despicable.

Just a game manager like Smith, couldn't throw accurate down field while being sacked or with 3 to 5 guys on him in 2 seconds, despicable.

Yep, had nothing to do with the offensive line or game plan.

Any of this sound familiar?

I must say though it is much more enjoyable seeing him argue with fellow Niner fans who are sounding very much like we did when he was here. The guy is a complete homer for Kaep. Simply cannot see the forest from the tree's.

A fun thread on Webzon with Marvin49:

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niner ... hing-game/

I wonder if he will leave their website too. LOL.

Funny how they talk about Wilson. "He just lobs it up. No accuracy whatsoever." "He throws 50/50 balls." "WRs bail him out".

Well sure and then the next post is how bad our receiver corp is and the next post is when we get Crabs back we will have the receiving corp in the league. The logic bounces all over the place. It really is fun to read.

 

[-The Glove-]

The 49ers are not that great this year IMO. Tons of injuries at WR, TE and the QB has regressed too. I doubt a deep run for the 49ers. We would have to pick up the offense a lot to do anything.

Yeah. We know the feeling. Loss both tackles (one being a probowler), an all-pro center at times, our #1 receiver, our biggest offseason addition (Harvin), Miller for several games, etc. Injuries happen. That's when drafting and depth plays a huge part. As for your QB regressing, this whole board could have told you this would happen. We just didn't think it would happen this soon.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

Anquan Boldin on track for another four touchdown season.

Who's got it better than us, eh?

 

[SanDiego49er]

The 49ers are not that great this year IMO. Tons of injuries at WR, TE and the QB has regressed too. I doubt a deep run for the 49ers. We would have to pick up the offense a lot to do anything.

Yeah. We know the feeling. Loss both tackles (one being a probowler), an all-pro center at times, our #1 receiver, our biggest offseason addition (Harvin), Miller for several games, etc. Injuries happen. That's when drafting and depth plays a huge part. As for your QB regressing, this whole board could have told you this would happen. We just didn't think it would happen this soon.

I don't think I would worry too much if I was you. You continue winning. So that's what is most important. Seahawks look pretty darn good to me this year. I think they will be formidable in the playoffs. There are no guarantees. But homfield throughout would make them tough to beat.

Kaep has a real strong arm and he obviously has fast legs. Plus he is big and tall and strong. What he is not doing right now is reading the whole field well and going through his progressions. Like 1, 2, 3, 4. He needs to look at all his options. He definitely has athletic ability and size you can't teach. There are a lot of problems with him right now in the pocket. There are so many things needs to get better at in the pocket. Outside the pocket he is plenty effective throwing or running. Some guys can learn that or get better. Some never do. It remains to be seen. I really don't know what he will be. There is no denying the skill set. Yet so much work needs to be done especially in the pocket.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

It's very difficult to teach a QB to go through his reads.

Most either can do it or they can't.

 

[Popeyejones]

Kaepernick...leaving the pocket too early.

LOL whut?

Thanks for the replies so far, guys. Popeye...go ahead and elaborate on your CK/Smith thoughts...again, given the exact same situation this season otherwise.

Sure thing. Before I start, it's worth acknowledging that 9ers fans were hoping for Kaepernick to be a huge improvement over Smith. I don't think that's true. I think they overrated Kaepernick based on a limited sample and underrated Smith based on his inability to put a bad team on his back. This is just to say that I am merely discussing the topic of if the 9ers would be better off or not with Smith (which they wouldn't), not if they should or shouldn't be disappointed with Kap (which they should).

The first place to start is obviously their respective performances on the same team, Smith last year and Kaep this year through the same number of games. Kap adds with his scrambling ability and we're talking about contribution to the team and its record, so include those in the totals for both of them:

Through 9 games this year Kap has 1985 yards, 12 TDs, and 6 INTs.
Through 9 games last year Smith had 1869 yards, 13 TDs, and 5 INTs.

The we could also talk about team record:

Through 9 games with Kap the 9ers are 6-3.
Through 9 games with Smith they were 6-2-1.

The next place to go would be what they were getting from their surrounding offense:

Here, we should first acknowledge that the 9ers have been below average at WR both of these seasons.

For Smith, he was playing with the 9ers top five receiving weapons in that year through all 9 games: Crabtree (WR#1), Manningham (WR#2), Randy Moss (WR#3), Vernon Davis (TE#1), Delanie Walker (TE#2).

For Kap, Through 9/9 games they've been without their WR#1 (Crabs), TE#2 (Walker), and WR#3 (Moss), for 8/9 games they've also been without their WR#2 (Manningham), and for 3 games they've also been without their TE#1 (Davis). Let's drop Manningham from the equation because they do have Boldin (at 35 years old and six or seven years from his last 1K yard season we can safely call him a WR#2). WR#1 and WR#3 has never been filled; despite high hopes it has been a revolving door of incredibly poor play. You have to have watched the 9ers a lot but Walker was also hugely important to this offense, and although a rookie, Vance McDonald hasn't filled those shoes (e.g. leaving eveything the same, if he didn't drop a beautiful 35 yard pass into the red zone in the 4th quarter against the Panthers the 9ers would have won and we probably wouldn't even be having this conversation).

As folks have noticed, with the decimation of the WR position, this offense grinds to a halt without Davis. The only thing the 9ers losses have in common is that Davis wasn't playing/as soon as Davis goes out they stop scoring and lose the game. They've won evey game that Davis has played in full. They've lost every game that he hasn't (and they have yet to score a point without Davis playing; it's that serious).

So, so far, Kap and Smith have similar stats and similar win totals, but Kap's WR situation has been a total mess. The 9ers have basically been forced to rely on their FB (a 7th round converted defensive end in his second year) as their third receiving target (behind Boldin, and Vernon when he's playing). It's sad really.

After that we should look at line play. The Oline, unlike every other position on the team, has somehow remained 100% intact through both of these last seasons). The only real difference is that Goodwin, always the weak link on the line, is now a year older and will not be on the team next year because of his play, and Iupati is quietly having a very, very bad year (the national media hasn't picked up on it yet, and the local media on picked up on it recently).

Basically, Kap's situation is worse than Smiths, and he has performed about the same. Again though, this is not a pity party for Kap and I'm not making excuses for him (everyone wanted and expected more), just arguing that the 9ers wouldn't be better off with Smith.

The last thing to note is how the 9ers offense functions. They are and have been a power running team. Harbaugh's dream offense is to run the ball up and down the field, and to use deep strikes off of play action to get big chunks of yardage and to keep defenses honest and away from bringing an 8th (and often 9th) man into the box. Kaepernick does this well. They tried to do it with Smith, but the problem was that he won't throw down field, and even on these plays designed to open up the box, he would always just check down, which doesn't open up the box for the run game to continue. That was the 9ers coaches' beef with Smith. If anyone is curious why he didn't get his job back, it can be summed up with that sentence. He's a much better fit for what Reid wants to do than for what Harbaugh wants to do. Adding up all of these other factors, with Smith checking down and forcing the team to convert 3rds over and over again to make it down the field against a stacked box, there's no chance this team would have had a better record with Smith in there. He had a favorable situation and both him and the team basically performed the same. He's gone because while he does some things pretty well, he was just a horrible fit for the scheme.

EDIT: Also worth saying that Kap, or any QB, will probably never have big stats as long as they're running the scheme they are. The 9ers don't have 40 less pass attempts than the team with the second least # of pass attempts because of Kap; it's the way they always have and probably always will play under Harbaugh. So too with the claim of Kap not going to his second read, which is based on two things, one true one false:

1) The pass offense is designed around the play action, which is a turn-and-strike offense. Morton (the WR coach who scripts the passing game) also, though his whole career, has designed the pass game to clear out for a receiver. It was true last year and this year. Last year it was Crabs the whole season, and they were pissed at Alex Smith because instead of following the design of the play he would check down even when Crabs was open. It's why Crabs' stats shot through the roof when Kap came in, and why they stuck with him (he was actually completing the plays as designed).

2) #1 aside, it's also just a silly meme that isn't really based in reality. On quick hit play action and three step drops you're not supposed to be going to your second read. On five step drops and longer to develop play actions you can, and Kap does that as much as anyone else not named Rodgers.


Sorry for the long post. (why I asked beforehand )

 

[Lieutenant Dan]

Thanks Popeye, that was enlightening on the QB situation and how your offense works from a Niner fan perspective.

So...was it cap issues that saw the exit of Walker, since it sounds like he was an important cog?

With VD getting concussed again, do you have concerns about having to redevelop the TE position via draft or FA? Looks like his durability is getting more questionable?

Do you think your existing young WRs would do better if some short, quick patterns were inserted in your gameplan? Or is Harbaugh too inflexible?

 

[RolandDeschain]

One thing that I see a ton of 49ers fans using as an excuse that irks me (and I haven't seen Popeye use it, I'm not targeting you) is the "our receivers never get separation" thing. So what? Seattle's only receiver that can get separation more than twice per game on a regular basis is a former Viking who has yet to play for us since we traded for him. Separation's nice, but teams are lucky to have ONE receiver that gets regular separation. It's a joke of an excuse. You have to be able to throw to guys who do not have separation.

 

[rlkats]

Thanks Popeye, that was enlightening on the QB situation and how your offense works from a Niner fan perspective.

So...was it cap issues that saw the exit of Walker, since it sounds like he was an important cog?

With VD getting concussed again, do you have concerns about having to redevelop the TE position via draft or FA? Looks like his durability is getting more questionable?

Do you think your existing young WRs would do better if some short, quick patterns were inserted in your gameplan? Or is Harbaugh too inflexible?

Short slants, more screens, would be great. I remember the Niners seattle game last year. Niners could not Do anyhting on Offense then in the second half they started doing dump off plays to frank just past the LOS. It ended up opening the passing. More quick passing is just like running but at different angles and it gives the QB mor confidenance.

 

[Smelly McUgly]

Kaepernick...leaving the pocket too early.

LOL whut?

Can you not read, son? Kaepernick wants to leave the pocket early instead of standing there and going through his reads. I can't write that any clearer.

I guess you can quibble and say, "Well, he's NOT leaving the pocket early," but that's only because he stands there locked onto WR #1 until he gets sacked or throws a pick.

 

[rideaducati]

I hope everyone sees this gif...it's awesome. I cried from laughing so hard.

 

[Popeyejones]

Thanks Popeye, that was enlightening on the QB situation and how your offense works from a Niner fan perspective.

So...was it cap issues that saw the exit of Walker, since it sounds like he was an important cog?

Yeah. Walker was much more important to the offense than it would seem from the stat sheet, and all the coaches knew that.
The 9ers are basically a year ahead of the Hawks in having to deal with the cap, so last off-season that had to let some pieces go that in a perfect world they would have really liked to have kept (Walker, Goldson, Soap, Francois). The Hawks will have to start dealing with this next year, and will really have to deal with it in two years.

For Walker, imagine if MRob was MRob, but was also the #2 TE and HBack.

With VD getting concussed again, do you have concerns about having to redevelop the TE position via draft or FA? Looks like his durability is getting more questionable?

He has always been prone to dings, but no, I don't think that will happen. McDonald is a rookie, but people are high on him developing. The team also like Celek, and is developing an H-Back (Derek Carrier) they like a lot on the practice squad right now (which was what Chris Harper was for, but they cut him).

Also, TEs who can both block and are competent receivers are vital in the 9ers offense, not a gamebreaker like Davis. Davis basically disappeared last year when Kap took over until the playoffs. They had a #1WR and a #3 WR (crabs and moss) and that was enough. Walker's production also went up. The story with Davis going out is that, so far this year, that means they're down to a #2 WR (Boldin) w/out any other options.

So, long story short, I don't think a gamebreaker like Davis at TE is vital in this offense, and they probably won't address the position again in the near future, given that they just spent a high pick on McDonald (and will give him time to succeed or fail as a #2 TE over the next few years until Davis moves on).

Do you think your existing young WRs would do better if some short, quick patterns were inserted in your gameplan? Or is Harbaugh too inflexible?

Yeah, I think they'd definitely do better with that, but it doesn't really fit the offense. Short slants (and rlkats call for more screens) don't fit the offense. The goal is to keep pounding, get 8 or 9 people down into the box, and then kill 'em over the top with the play action that loosen up the middle again. It's why they go to the line with two plays, and that's the read Kap is making, if they come in you audible out and play action over the top, if they stay out you audible in and run traps and powers up the middle.

Running a RB screen or slant with 8 or 9 in the box just doesn't make any sense. On a slant, you're having your receiver run directly INTO where all the defenders are. On a RB screen, with that many people there (and a safety or two up), someone will diagnose it (why the screens they do run are mostly ineffective). Likewise, screens are effective when teams are blitzing to stop the pass, or expecting a normal pass and trying to tee off on the QB. If they're expecting run they're just trying to hold the point of attack and will diagnose the screen instead pursuing the QB.

Basically, in a pass-first offense slants and RB screens are effective, in a run-first offense, they're basically counter-productive to what you're trying to do.

Edit: WR bubbles and screens (which the Hawks run a fair amount of) are different of course, as all the action is happening outside the hashes and they're a tool to draw people up into the press so you can go over the top later.

 

[Smelly McUgly]

Defenses are going to confuse Kaepernick's ability to audible by not setting until the last second, though. I saw parts of our Week Two game, and you could see our guys hiding the look until the very last second.

But I think there is room for WCO-style quick-hitters in the SF offense. Running more hooks and curls that Kaepernick can hit out of three-step drops would help. Sometimes, defenses are just giving that up knowing that Kaepernick and the offense aren't going to take those yards in that way.

 

[RolandDeschain]

I actually think the 49ers would have a better record right now if they had started Smith. Not for any reasons I've seen anyone state here or on the 49ers Webzone, though.

I think the play calling is hurting Kaepernick too much because Kaepernick is not ready to be a lean mean pocket passer as of yet. Roman's calling plays like he's a wiley skilled vet from what I can tell. If Smith was in there, the play calling would be more conservative and that alone would have gotten you a win over the Panthers at a minimum, IMO.

Smith is NOT a better QB than Kaepernick, but the play calling habits from the 49ers staff between the two sure are different.

 

[Popeyejones]

Running more hooks and curls that Kaepernick can hit out of three-step drops would help.

Yep, hooks and curls make sense in this offense (with the box filled CBs have to play off a bit and protect the top, opening up hooks and curls on three step drops), which is why they run them when they have someone playing who is a threat to go over the top.

That was Manningham's role last year til he went out, and then basically all that Randy Moss did in his place (Moss' threat of going over the top was unsustainable as it was just based on reputation, but still).

This is also what they were doing with Manningham on Sunday, but it was his first game back in a year so he was on a very limited snap count. At minimum two of his three receptions were exactly this (don't remember what the third was)

They haven't been able to do it with Boldin because Boldin is anything but a threat to go over the top, or with their other WRs this year because nobody is dumb enough to respect them (good example: Of the 9ers nine games this year, until yesterday, their starting #2 WR for every single game isn't even on the team anymore. That's just awful. :lol: ).

 

[Smelly McUgly]

I actually think the 49ers would have a better record right now if they had started Smith. Not for any reasons I've seen anyone state here or on the 49ers Webzone, though.

I think the play calling is hurting Kaepernick too much because Kaepernick is not ready to be a lean mean pocket passer as of yet. Roman's calling plays like he's a wiley skilled vet from what I can tell. If Smith was in there, the play calling would be more conservative and that alone would have gotten you a win over the Panthers at a minimum, IMO.

Smith is NOT a better QB than Kaepernick, but the play calling habits from the 49ers staff between the two sure are different.

I disagree.

My opinion on what the problem is with the Niners offense is this: 1) Roman getting too hung up on his shiny new toy at QB, and 2) Kaepernick struggling to make reads and leaving the pocket too early.

If Smith is still QB, Roman has to run the ball. He doesn't run Gore only five times in the second half of a 10-9 game. He has to throw something other than five- and- seven-step drops with long-ass routes. They throw the short and middle stuff that Smith thrives on.

If they would just ride Gore, who is about 82 years old by now, but who still runs like a 24-year-old back, throw off of PA after establishing the run, and implement more three-step-drops and hooks/slants/intermediate stuff, they could at least keep some of the heat off of Kaepernick and chew up yardage more consistently.

With Smith, they win at least one of the three games they lost and probably still beat the Packers, too.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Lol, I totally missed that, Smelly. We're on the same page. :th2thumbs:

 

[Smelly McUgly]

Roland, it's okay. Actually, you reminded me that I said something like that - and I really do believe it.

Popeye: But you have Boldin, who wins balls in ultra-tight coverage. You still have to get it to him on intermediate routes. Davis needs to get hit underneath more often too.

 

[Lieutenant Dan]

Here is an interesting observation by NFL.com's Elliott Harrison on his Power Rankings today for the Niners:

"Colin Kaepernick was exposed in every way, both by the Panthers' pass rush and as a quarterback who can't make his receivers look better than they really are."

I was thinking that making lemonade out of lemons is something that Tom Brady has been doing this season...and RGIII, Luck and Wilson have as well this year and last. Also, how good really, are the WR corps for the Broncos or Packers if Peyton and Aaron aren't throwing to them?

I certainly get that the WR situation is dire in Ninerland, but when at what point does CK have responsibility to make what he has in his WR's better with some stellar passing?